Bitcoin's Rally at Risk as Inflation May Top 4% by 2026

Patrick Turner

Cryptocurrency

Central Bank

Stocks

Bond

Data Interpretation

Traders' Opinions

Economic

Summary:

New analysis warns US inflation could exceed 4% by mid-2026, upending disinflationary market assumptions.

The popular belief that inflation is on a permanent decline is facing a serious challenge. A new analysis suggests that U.S. inflation could rebound and surge past 4% by mid-2026, creating a difficult environment for Bitcoin investors who have been betting on interest rate cuts.

This forecast arrives as global bond yields are already climbing, injecting fresh uncertainty into the market for volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Experts warn that any delay in the Federal Reserve's plans to ease monetary policy could trigger even greater market swings.

Study Warns of Resurging US Inflation

In a recent report, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Lazard CEO Peter R. Orszag argue that U.S. living costs are set to rise more than many expect. They contend that the disinflationary benefits from AI-driven productivity gains will be outweighed by a combination of tariffs, a shrinking labor pool, and loose fiscal policy.

While many market participants are focused on falling housing inflation and productivity boosts, Posen and Orszag believe these factors are not enough to keep prices down. Their analysis points to several underlying pressures that could reignite inflation.

Tariffs, Labor, and Deficits Fuel Price Pressures

The study identifies three primary drivers that could push inflation higher:

1. Delayed Tariff Impact: Tariffs implemented during the previous U.S. administration are still working their way through the economy. The researchers project these will add approximately 50 basis points to headline inflation by the middle of 2026.

2. Labor Shortages: Potential deportations could shrink the available labor force, leading to higher wages as companies compete for workers. This, in turn, could fuel demand-driven inflation.

3. Loose Fiscal Policy: Relaxed government spending could cause the budget deficit to swell to over 7% of the nation's GDP, further stimulating the economy and pushing prices upward.

Posen and Orszag also warn that shifting public perceptions about inflation and already loose financial conditions could amplify the upward pressure on consumer prices.

Market Impact: Bitcoin and Bond Yields Under Pressure

This inflationary outlook clashes with current market sentiment. In 2025, the U.S. core inflation measure fell to around 2.7%, encouraging major banks to forecast interest rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points. Cryptocurrency traders had priced in even more aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve.

However, the bond market is already signaling trouble. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.31%, a five-month peak, while a sharp sell-off in Japanese bonds contributed to rising yields globally.

Higher yields on government bonds increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and riskier investments like stocks. In response to this pressure, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the past week, trading near $90,000.

Analysts at the Bitunix exchange suggest the biggest policy risk isn't that the Fed cuts rates too soon, but that it becomes overly cautious. By ignoring structural disinflationary forces, policymakers might be forced into a much larger and more disruptive policy shift in the future, a scenario the market is beginning to price in as "delayed compensation."

What This Means for Crypto Investors

The combination of these economic factors creates a complex and challenging picture for investors. The core arguments from the new inflation study highlight several key risks to watch:

• Lingering Tariffs: Trump-era trade policies are expected to contribute to inflation through mid-2026.

• A Tighter Labor Market: A shrinking workforce could trigger wage-driven price hikes across the economy.

• Swelling Deficits: A budget deficit exceeding 7% of GDP poses a significant inflationary threat.

• Policy Miscalculation: Markets could face an abrupt correction if the Federal Reserve fails to address structural economic shifts correctly.

For now, global investors and crypto traders are closely monitoring these developments, as the dream of sustained disinflation and easy money comes under question.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on January 21, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have agreed on what he called a "framework of a future deal" involving Greenland, prompting him to pull back threatened tariffs on European countries that were set to take effect Feb. 1.

Details, for now, remain elusive. Trump described the framework as more of a "concept" in an interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen, saying it would involve U.S.-European collaboration on a proposed Golden Dome missile defense system and access to mineral resources in Greenland.

The relief expressed by European leaders was swift and palpable.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on X that the day is "ending on a better note than it began" — though he added that Denmark's "red lines" should be respected.

Netherlands Prime Minister Dick Schoof and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, while welcoming the news, also urged continued cooperation between allied nations.

The "sell America" trade that rattled investors earlier this week quickly reversed on the news. U.S. stocks shot up Wednesday stateside, with major indexes climbing more than 1% by the close, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell and the U.S. dollar index strengthened.

Other topics Trump discussed with CNBC include his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, U.S. involvement in Iran and his push to cap interest rates on credit cards.

The developments capped off a striking day at Davos, whose theme this year was "A Spirit of Dialogue," even as discussions across the conference were dominated by frayed alliances and geopolitical tension.

But the story isn't over yet. The European Council is having an extraordinary meeting Thursday, while Trump is set to participate in a Board of Peace ceremony the same day.

European tariffs may have been averted in the nick of time, but the clock is still ticking on other issues.

What you need to know today

U.S. has a Greenland deal 'framework': Trump. The U.S. president said Wednesday he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have formed a "framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland," prompting him to call off threatened tariffs on European countries.

European Council meeting and Trump's Board of Peace ceremony. Even though tariffs are off the table, European nations will still convene on Thursday to discuss the U.S.' recent overtures. Separately, Trump will be having a Board of Peace ceremony the same day.

OpenAI looks for Middle East investments. The Sam Altman-led firm is in talks with sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East to try to secure investments for a funding round expected to total around $50 billion, CNBC confirmed on Wednesday

U.S. stocks rebound as Trump retracts tariffs. Major U.S. indexes popped more than 1% on Wednesday, led by tech stocks. Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with South Korea's Kospi topping the 5,000 mark for the first time during intraday trading.

[PRO] Early signs of a 'death cross.' The pattern occurs when a stock's short-term moving average falls below its longer-term one, and is seen as a signal that more downside may be ahead. One major AI stock is nearing this bearish threshold.

And finally...

Trump's much-anticipated address at the World Economic Forum drew thousands, with attendees queuing for hours to get into the Congress Hall. I was one of them. Even Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman had to wait in line with the rest of us.

As the crowd packed in, the atmosphere began to resemble something closer to a star- studded concert than a policy forum. Trump was met with loud applause as he took the stage for what many billed as the most closely watched speech of this year's Davos.

After more than an hour, Trump turned to the topic many in the room had been bracing for. "Would you like me to talk about Greenland?"

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

A Meaningful Upward Revision to Gold’s Long-Term Outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from a previous estimate of $4,900, reflecting what it sees as a durable shift in demand dynamics rather than a short-term speculative surge. The revision follows a powerful rally that has already pushed spot gold to a record high of $4,887.82 per ounce, with prices up more than 11% so far in 2026 after a 64% gain in 2025.

According to the bank, the magnitude and persistence of recent gains indicate that gold has entered a higher structural valuation regime, driven by investors seeking protection against global policy uncertainty.

Private-Sector Diversification Resets the Price Baseline

A central pillar of Goldman’s revised outlook is the behavior of private-sector investors who have accumulated gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk, fiscal uncertainty and policy volatility. The bank assumes these investors will not unwind their positions in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point for future price forecasts.

This relationship is causal rather than merely correlational. By retaining gold holdings even as prices rise, diversification buyers reduce available supply in secondary markets, reinforcing price strength and limiting downside corrections. Goldman argues that this sticky demand explains why previous forecasts were exceeded sooner than expected.

Central Banks Remain a Steady Source of Demand

Goldman also expects emerging market central banks to continue diversifying their reserves into gold, with average purchases projected at around 60 tonnes in 2026. This trend reflects longer-term concerns about currency concentration and exposure to geopolitical sanctions, particularly among countries seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Central bank demand plays a stabilising role in the gold market. Unlike speculative flows, official-sector buying tends to be price-insensitive and long-term in nature, providing a structural bid that supports elevated valuations even during periods of reduced market volatility.

Rate Cuts and ETF Flows Add a Tailwind

Another supportive factor in Goldman’s outlook is monetary policy. The bank expects Western gold exchange-traded fund holdings to rise as the Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in 2026. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making it more attractive relative to cash and bonds.

The link here is again causal. Easing monetary policy directly improves gold’s relative appeal, encouraging ETF inflows that can amplify price moves during bullish phases.

What Could Threaten the Bullish Case

Despite its optimism, Goldman acknowledged potential downside risks. A sharp reduction in perceived uncertainty around the long-term path of global monetary policy could prompt investors to liquidate macro hedges, including gold. Such a shift would weaken one of the core drivers of recent demand.

However, the bank appears to view this scenario as less likely in the near term, given ongoing geopolitical tensions and fiscal challenges across major economies.

Overall, Goldman’s forecast suggests that gold’s rally is not merely approaching a cyclical peak but is instead establishing a higher long-term price floor. With private investors, central banks and monetary policy all aligned in support of the metal, gold’s role as a strategic asset appears increasingly entrenched heading into 2026.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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SAXO

Political

Stocks

Commodity

Forex

Market drivers and catalysts

· Equities: Wall Street bounced hard; Europe steadied after early jitters; Asia was mixed as Hong Kong tech rebounded.

· Volatility: VIX lower, near-term stress fades, headline risk persists

· Digital assets: Bitcoin near $90k, Ethereum steady, crypto lagging equities

· Currencies: USD rebounds on easing US-Europe tariff worries, AUD strongest after robust jobs report.

· Commodities: Gold's haven status holds firm while heating demand drives diesel and natural gas sharply higher

· Fixed Income: Japanese government bonds rally sharply again. US treasuries rallied modestly as well.

· Macro events: US Nov Personal Spending & Eurozone Jan Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

· The geopolitical temperature cooled after Trump abandoned his tariff threat against European countries, while announcing a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding Greenland, thus forgoing punitive tariffs on European nations. Earlier, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he stated he wouldn't pursue acquiring Greenland by force, while Denmark still rejected Trump's request to negotiate a US takeover of Greenland.

· Australia Dec. Employment change was in at +65.2k vs. +27 expected and the unemployment rate for the month dropped to 4.1% vs. 4.3% expected. This sent short Australian rates rising sharply in greater anticipation of a rate hike from the RBA as soon as their next meeting on February.

· US pending home sales dropped 9.3% in December 2025, the largest decline since April 2020, and ended a four-month gain streak. All regions fell, notably the Midwest (-14.9%) and West (-13.3%), with a 3.0% year-over-year decrease. NAR Economist Lawrence Yun cited low inventory and hesitant buyers as factors.

· Canada's producer prices fell 0.6% MoM, with decreases in energy and petroleum prices contributing to the steepest drop in seven months. Lumber prices also fell, while non-ferrous metal prices rose. In December 2025, year-on-year producer prices increased 4.9%, down from November's 5.9%.

· Japan's trade surplus decreased to JPY 105.7 billion, missing the expected JPY 357 billion. In December 2025, exports grew 5.1% year-on-year to JPY 10,411.5 billion, while imports rose 5.3% to JPY 10,305.8 billion, reflecting strong year-end demand.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Norway Rate Decision (expect unchanged)1330 – US Weekly Jobless Claims1500 – US Nov Personal Spending1500 – Eurozone Jan Consumer Confidence

Earnings events

· Today: Visa, LVMH, SK Hynix, Procter & Gamble, GE Aerospace, Intel, Abbott Laboratories, Intuitive Surgical, KLA Corp, Capital One Financial, Freeport McMoRan, CSX Corporation

· Friday: SLB

Equities

· USA: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% to 49,077.23, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to 6,875.62, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% to 23,224.82, as a broad rebound followed the prior day's selloff. Risk appetite improved on hopes that U.S.-Europe tariff tensions eased, and small caps led with the Russell 2000 up 2.0% to 2,698.17. Halliburton jumped 4.1% after an earnings beat, United Airlines rose 2.2% after results and 2026 guidance topped forecasts, Apple added 0.4% on reports of a major Siri overhaul, while Netflix fell 2.2% as investors weighed softer margin guidance and its Warner bid.

· Europe: The Euro STOXX 50 slipped 0.2% to 5,882.88 and the STOXX Europe 600 was flat (0.0%) at 602.67, as early trade jitters around U.S. policy headlines faded into the close. Losses in software and data names weighed, with SAP down 1.5% as investors debated whether generative artificial intelligence could pressure pricing, and Experian down 4.9% despite reporting solid underlying revenue growth. Burberry rose 5.0% after beating holiday sales expectations, while Rio Tinto gained 5.2% after strong quarterly production results, and markets kept one eye on policy signals from Davos and the next wave of earnings.

· Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.4% to 26,585.06, South Korea's Kospi added 0.5% to 4,909.93, while Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.4% to 52,774.64 and Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,782.90. Sentiment improved in Hong Kong as regulators moved to curb volatility and misleading disclosures, helping tech and consumer names rebound. China Vanke jumped 4.6% after bondholders agreed to defer repayment on a 1.1 billion yuan bond, ASMPT rose 4.3% as it explored strategic options, and Alibaba gained 2.2% while SMIC advanced 3.7% as broader tech appetite recovered.

Volatility

· Market volatility eased further after yesterday's rebound in equities, but pricing still reflects a cautious mindset rather than full relief. The VIX closed at 16.9, with very short-dated measures such as VIX1D near 12, signalling that immediate stress has faded. However, the 9-day VIX around 15.9 suggests investors remain alert to headline risk, particularly around geopolitics, trade rhetoric, and key US data releases later this week.

· Based on current options pricing, the S&P 500 is expected to move about ±57 points (±0.8%) into Friday, pointing to a more contained, but still meaningful, risk range for the remainder of the week.

· 0DTE skew indicator (today's expiry): options pricing shows calls slightly more expensive than puts around the current index level. This inverted skew suggests investors are paying relatively more for short-term upside exposure than for immediate crash protection, a pattern often seen after sharp rebounds when confidence improves, but conviction remains fragile.

Digital Assets

· Digital assets are stabilising alongside broader risk markets, but continue to lag the strength seen in equities. Bitcoin is holding close to the $90,000 level, while Ethereum trades just above $3,000, with major altcoins such as Solana and XRP modestly firmer. The overall tone is constructive, but cautious, with gains failing to fully follow the equity rally.

· For investors, the most important signal remains ETF flow dynamics. Recent outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, including IBIT and ETHA, indicate that institutional demand has yet to return in a sustained way. That backdrop helps explain why price moves remain choppy rather than trending. Until ETF flows stabilise or turn positive again, rallies in crypto are likely to remain liquidity-driven rather than conviction-led.

Fixed Income

· Japan's government bonds found strong support again Thursday as yields fell for longer-dated JGB's, especially for 10-year and longer maturity debt. The 10-year benchmark yield dropped back another some four basis points to 2.24%, now some 12 basis points from the spike high on Tuesday, while the benchmark 30-year by late Thursday had backed out more of the spike in yields on Tuesday, trading late in Tokyo's Thursday session down five basis points near 3.68%. Short Japanese yields are close to unchanged with almost no anticipation of a rate hike at the Friday BoJ meeting.

· US treasuries rallied Wednesday, perhaps in part by a stabiliation in the unsteady Japanese bond market. While benchmark 2-year yields remain pinned just below the key 3.60% area, the benchmark 10-year yield dropped back below 4.25% Wednesday from multi-month highs just above 4.30% the prior day.

Commodities

· Gold's safe-haven credentials were only briefly challenged after Trump, together with NATO, announced a "framework" deal on Greenland, marginally lowering the geopolitical temperature. However, Trump's speech in Davos left little doubt that the global landscape has changed, continuing to support demand for hard assets. Gold has so far retraced just USD 60 of a nearly USD 300 rally since Friday, while Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast to USD 5,400.

· Silver has seen a slightly deeper pullback, but losses have been capped by ongoing reports of strong retail demand in Turkey, India, and China, where buyers are willing to pay elevated premiums as refiners scramble to meet demand. That said, the risk of industrial demand destruction may slow its advance. The gold-silver ratio remains one to watch for direction.

· Crude trades steady near the upper end of its current range, with WTI trading above USD 60 and Brent above USD 65, supported by a +7% weekly jump in distillate prices as record-breaking cold across the U.S. lifts demand for diesel and heating fuels. Natural gas has been the standout, continuing its sharp rally to around USD 5.30, up 70% since Friday.

Currencies

· The US dollar rebounded slightly on Wednesday in the wake of Trump's more conciliatory tone on Greenland and tariffs on EU countries. EURUSD dipped back below 1.1700, trading 1.1690 in late Asian hours Thursday after a 1.1670 low.

· USDJPY surged back higher on broad yen weakness as the rally in Japanese bonds failed to provide a sentiment boost for the currency, hitting session highs late in Asia's Thursday session at 158.85. EURJPY was testing all-time highs above 185.50.

· AUD jumped higher across the board on strong jobs data (see above). AUDUSD rose above 0.6800 at one point in Thursday's Asian session, its highest level since October of 2024. Odds for a 25-bp rate hike at the next RBA meeting on Feb. 3 have risen above 50% after this data.

Source: SAXO

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Commodity

Forex

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have declined to 4,780 USD as markets reduce the risk premium and lower demand for safe-haven assets.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

· Gold (XAUUSD) is undergoing a correction after extreme price movements

· The market is reducing demand for safe-haven assets due to a decline in the risk premium

· XAUUSD forecast for 22 January 2026: 4,760

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) fell by more than 1% on Thursday to 4,780 USD per troy ounce. The precious metal corrected after setting a new all-time high in the previous session.

The trigger was a softening of geopolitical rhetoric: US President Donald Trump abandoned threats of imposing tariffs against Europe over Greenland, stated that an agreement was approaching, and ruled out the use of force. This reduced the geopolitical premium and demand for safe-haven assets.

At the same time, uncertainty persists. European lawmakers suspended the ratification of the EU–US trade agreement reached in July. An additional supportive factor for gold came from a sell-off in Japanese government bonds amid pre-election promises of tax relief, which increased concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability.

The market is focused on the delayed release of the US PCE price index, scheduled for today. It may provide new signals regarding the trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates.

The forecast for gold (XAUUSD) is moderate.

Technical outlook

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows a pronounced uptrend continuing after a strong upward momentum in mid-January. Prices reached a new all-time high in the 4,885–4,890 area and moved into a corrective downward phase.

The upward momentum was rapid, with quotes moving into overbought territory. The current pullback appears technical. Prices have returned to the range and are stabilising in the 4,780–4,800 area, without signs of a breakdown in the primary structure.

Volatility remains elevated, which is typical after extreme movements. The market is unwinding overbought conditions. The nearest support zone is located in the 4,750–4,760 area, and holding this zone is critical for maintaining the bullish scenario. Below this, a stronger support zone lies at 4,655–4,680, where a consolidation phase previously developed.

As long as quotes hold above these levels, the baseline scenario remains moderately bullish with the potential for a renewed test of all-time highs after the correction ends. A loss of the 4,750–4,680 area will increase the risk of a deeper downward phase.

XAUUSD overview

· Asset: XAUUSD

· Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)

· Trend: bullish (correction within an upward impulse)

· Key resistance levels: 4,885–4,900 and 5,000

· Key support levels: 4,760 and 4,680

Gold (XAUUSD) In A Correction Phase: A Logical Move After An Explosive Rally_1

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Prices holding above the 4,750–4,760 USD zone confirm the preservation of the upward structure after the correction from all-time highs. The decline is technical in nature amid a reduction in the geopolitical premium, without a trend breakdown.

Risk-to-reward ratio is around 1:3.

· Buy Stop: 4,800 USD

· Take Profit: 4,980–5,000 USD

· Stop Loss: 4,750 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,750–4,680 USD area will indicate a deeper correction after extreme growth and increased profit-taking.

· Sell Stop: 4,745 USD

· Take Profit: 4,655 USD

· Stop Loss: 4,820 USD

Risk factors

A reduction in geopolitical tensions around Greenland, strengthening of the US dollar following the PCE price index release, and further profit-taking after new all-time highs may limit gold's upside potential in the short term.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is correcting following a reduction in the risk premium. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 22 January 2026, does not rule out a move towards 4,760 to complete the correction phase.

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

Source: RoboForex

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Owen Li

Data Interpretation

Central Bank

Economic

Remarks of Officials

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% in its first policy meeting of the year, a decision widely anticipated by economists. The central bank cited steady economic growth and modest inflation as key reasons for keeping the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged.

The move was correctly predicted by all 30 economists participating in a Reuters poll.

A Resilient Economy Underpins Policy Stability

Recent economic data shows a solid performance, providing the central bank with the confidence to hold its policy steady.

According to preliminary government figures, Malaysia's economy expanded by 5.7% in the final quarter of 2025. This marks an acceleration from the 5.2% growth recorded in the preceding three months.

The strong end to the year brought full-year growth for 2025 to 4.9%. While slightly below the 5.1% expansion seen in 2024, this figure surpassed the official projections, which ranged from 4% to 4.8%. BNM noted that it expects the final growth number for 2025 to be at the upper end of that forecast range.

Inflation Remains Moderate and Under Control

Inflationary pressures remain contained, giving BNM further room to maneuver. The consumer price index rose 1.6% in December from a year earlier, a slight increase from the 1.4% recorded in November.

For the full year of 2025, headline inflation averaged 1.4%, while core inflation averaged 2.0%. Looking ahead, the central bank expects this trend to continue.

"For 2026, headline inflation is expected to remain moderate amid the continued easing in global cost conditions," the bank stated, adding that core inflation is projected to remain stable throughout the year.

Outlook for 2026: Cautious Optimism

Bank Negara Malaysia projects that the economic momentum from late 2025 will carry over into the current year, primarily supported by resilient domestic demand. The official forecast from the government and the central bank anticipates economic growth of between 4% and 4.5% for the year.

However, officials remain aware of potential headwinds, including lingering uncertainties from the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade.

In its policy statement, BNM affirmed that the current interest rate is "appropriate and supportive of the economy amid price stability." The bank also noted that while tariffs could weigh on global growth, Malaysia's outlook remains resilient, bolstered by sustained domestic demand, strong tech investments, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.

The central bank's last rate adjustment was a cut in July 2025, a preemptive move made after the United States imposed steep tariffs on its trading partners. Since then, trade-related uncertainty has eased, and the tariff rate applied to Malaysia has been reduced from 25% to 19%.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Remarks of Officials

Commodity

Political

Economic

Energy

The United States military has intercepted another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea, citing its links to Venezuela. The seizure on Tuesday marks the seventh such incident in a month-long campaign by the Trump administration to control Venezuela's oil shipments.

US Intercepts Seventh Tanker in Caribbean Operation

The US Southern Command, which is currently deploying nearly a dozen warships and thousands of personnel in the region, confirmed it apprehended the Motor Vessel Sagitta. According to a statement, the operation occurred "without incident."

An aerial view shows a tanker, identified as the Motor Vessel Sagitta, which was intercepted by the US military in the Caribbean due to its links to Venezuela.

"The apprehension of another tanker operating in defiance of President Trump's established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean demonstrates our resolve," the command stated. The military added that its goal is to "ensure that the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully."

Trump's Broader Strategy for Venezuelan Oil

This latest seizure is part of a broader foreign policy initiative by President Trump centered on Venezuela. The administration initially sought to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power through diplomatic means.

After those efforts failed, Trump ordered a raid on January 3, during which US forces captured Maduro and his wife. They were subsequently brought to New York to face criminal charges and remain in detention.

Looking ahead, the administration has announced plans to control Venezuela's oil resources indefinitely. This strategy includes a controversial $100 billion plan aimed at rebuilding the nation's struggling oil industry, a proposal that has drawn criticism from environmental groups and major US oil companies.

Targeting Sanctioned Ships and the "Shadow Fleet"

The vessels intercepted in the Caribbean have fallen into two main categories:

• Ships operating under direct US sanctions.

• Vessels belonging to a "shadow fleet" used to transport oil from sanctioned producers like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela while disguising their origins.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Bitcoin's Rally at Risk as Inflation May Top 4% by 2026

Study Warns of Resurging US Inflation

Market Impact: Bitcoin and Bond Yields Under Pressure

What This Means for Crypto Investors

Trump Calls Off Tariffs On Europe, But Nations Are Still Walking A Diplomatic Tightrope

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on January 21, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland.

What you need to know today

And finally...

Source: CNBC

Gold’s Structural Bull Case Strengthens as Goldman Lifts 2026 Target to $5,400

A Meaningful Upward Revision to Gold’s Long-Term Outlook

Private-Sector Diversification Resets the Price Baseline

Central Banks Remain a Steady Source of Demand

Rate Cuts and ETF Flows Add a Tailwind

What Could Threaten the Bullish Case

Source: Reuters

Market Quick Take - 22 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro headlines

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Earnings events

Equities

Volatility

Digital Assets

Fixed Income

Commodities

Currencies

Source: SAXO

Gold (XAUUSD) In A Correction Phase: A Logical Move After An Explosive Rally

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

Fundamental analysis

Technical outlook

XAUUSD overview

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Risk factors

Summary

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Source: RoboForex

Malaysia's Central Bank Holds Rates at 2.75% on Growth Outlook

A Resilient Economy Underpins Policy Stability

Inflation Remains Moderate and Under Control

Outlook for 2026: Cautious Optimism

US Seizes Another Venezuelan Oil Tanker in Caribbean

US Intercepts Seventh Tanker in Caribbean Operation

An aerial view shows a tanker, identified as the Motor Vessel Sagitta, which was intercepted by the US military in the Caribbean due to its links to Venezuela.

Trump's Broader Strategy for Venezuelan Oil

Targeting Sanctioned Ships and the "Shadow Fleet"

Risk Disclosure