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Understanding the Surge in Bond Yields: Term Premium, not “Higher for Longer”

The surge in bond yields, exemplified by the 10-year Treasury’s 47-basis-point spike in September 2023, isn’t solely due to the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” rhetoric. Delving into the intricate world of term premiums, this article dissects the factors driving yield movements.


Overhauling Bank Regulation Will Boost Liquidity of Government Bonds

Hedge funds should be free to act as primary dealers in Europe.


Republicans Seeking a Government Shutdown Were Playing a Self-Defeating Game

Were the House extremists deliberately trying to sabotage the U.S. economy?


Why A Rout in Government Bonds Is Worrying

The world's biggest bond markets are in the throes of another rout as a new era of higher for longer interest rates takes hold.


As US Yields Surge, How High Can They Go?

Skyrocketing bond yields put markets in a spin. Fed's higher for longer calls grow louder. U.S. 10-year yield approaches 4.8% at 16-year high. Can they reach 5.0% and how soon before something breaks?


Global Bond Rout Upending Markets Shows No Signs of Abating

A sell-off in global bond markets gathered pace, driving yields to the highest level in more than a decade, as traders braced for an extended period of tight monetary policy.


Technical Outlook and Review

The DXY chart currently has a bearish overall momentum.

IC Markets

The Fear of Strong Jobs

Even a hint of an improving U.S. jobs market sends shivers down investors' spines.


Turning Into a Rout

This bond bear steepening market is being driven by Treasuries, and more specifically by higher longer tenor real rates. This is painful for corporate borrowers, as higher real rates cannot be diversified away through higher prices (as could be the case if driven by inflation expectations).


Escalating Risk Aversion Meets Yen Intervention

As investors brace themselves, the focus now pivots towards the forthcoming U.S. ADP employment and ISM Services data. However, the market is caught in a conundrum, trying to decipher if positive data will quell or exacerbate the prevailing anxiety.

Samantha Luan

NZ First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review

The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5% as expected. The tone of the accompanying statement is somewhat more dovish than expected.


Services PMIs in Focus as Stock Markets Struggle

If this trend of rising long-term rates continues, then stock markets could well be in for even more volatility in the days and weeks ahead.


Gold Price Nosedives, Recovery Could Be Limited

Gold price declined heavily below the $1,900 support. It could start a recovery if it clears the $1,840 resistance on the 4-hour chart.

Titan FX

What Would Japanese Intervention to Boost the Weak Yen Look Like?

Japanese authorities are facing renewed pressure to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen, as investors eye prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates while the Bank of Japan remains wedded to its super low interest rate policy.


U.S. Stocks Outlook: Can It Reverse Its Downtrend This October?

The global stock market has finally closed the book on what has been the most challenging month of the year. What are the key factors to watch for into the final quarter of the year?


Will the Oil Price Hit $100 Per Barrel?

The 100-mark might be achievable, given the increasing demand and reduced supply by OPEC + in the past few months. However, crude prices might not be able to sustain above the level due to global economic uncertainties.


New Zealand Dollar Slides on RBNZ Pause Expectations

The New Zealand dollar is falling and could fall further if the RBNZ pauses rate hikes on Wednesday. This is because investors may take it as a sign that the central bank is concerned about the risk of a recession. The RBNZ is facing a difficult challenge, as it needs to balance the need to combat high inflation with the risk of tipping the economy into a recession.

Warren Takunda

What Are the Next Steps as U.S. House Searches for New Speaker?

The U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in its history has booted its speaker out of the job, as infighting in the narrow and bitterly divided Republican majority toppled Kevin McCarthy from the position.


Turkey's Annual Inflation Continued to Rise in September

Annual inflation recorded another strong increase in September due to a broad-based deterioration in price dynamics while the rise in energy prices and continuing pressure in services is attracting attention.


October 4th Financial News

U.S. House votes to remove Republican House Speaker McCarthy; U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly to 9.61 million in August, while layoffs remained low; the yen rebounds after falling below 150 amid talk of Japan's intervention...

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