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Understanding the Surge in Bond Yields: Term Premium, not “Higher for Longer”
The surge in bond yields, exemplified by the 10-year Treasury’s 47-basis-point spike in September 2023, isn’t solely due to the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” rhetoric. Delving into the intricate world of term premiums, this article dissects the factors driving yield movements.
SAXO
Overhauling Bank Regulation Will Boost Liquidity of Government Bonds
Hedge funds should be free to act as primary dealers in Europe.
Justin
Republicans Seeking a Government Shutdown Were Playing a Self-Defeating Game
Were the House extremists deliberately trying to sabotage the U.S. economy?
Alex
Why A Rout in Government Bonds Is Worrying
The world's biggest bond markets are in the throes of another rout as a new era of higher for longer interest rates takes hold.
Damon
As US Yields Surge, How High Can They Go?
Skyrocketing bond yields put markets in a spin. Fed's higher for longer calls grow louder. U.S. 10-year yield approaches 4.8% at 16-year high. Can they reach 5.0% and how soon before something breaks?
XM
Global Bond Rout Upending Markets Shows No Signs of Abating
A sell-off in global bond markets gathered pace, driving yields to the highest level in more than a decade, as traders braced for an extended period of tight monetary policy.
Thomas
Technical Outlook and Review
The DXY chart currently has a bearish overall momentum.
IC Markets
The Fear of Strong Jobs
Even a hint of an improving U.S. jobs market sends shivers down investors' spines.
Swissquote
Turning Into a Rout
This bond bear steepening market is being driven by Treasuries, and more specifically by higher longer tenor real rates. This is painful for corporate borrowers, as higher real rates cannot be diversified away through higher prices (as could be the case if driven by inflation expectations).
Damon
Escalating Risk Aversion Meets Yen Intervention
As investors brace themselves, the focus now pivots towards the forthcoming U.S. ADP employment and ISM Services data. However, the market is caught in a conundrum, trying to decipher if positive data will quell or exacerbate the prevailing anxiety.
Samantha Luan
NZ First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5% as expected. The tone of the accompanying statement is somewhat more dovish than expected.
Alex
Services PMIs in Focus as Stock Markets Struggle
If this trend of rising long-term rates continues, then stock markets could well be in for even more volatility in the days and weeks ahead.
CMC
Gold Price Nosedives, Recovery Could Be Limited
Gold price declined heavily below the $1,900 support. It could start a recovery if it clears the $1,840 resistance on the 4-hour chart.
Titan FX
What Would Japanese Intervention to Boost the Weak Yen Look Like?
Japanese authorities are facing renewed pressure to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen, as investors eye prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates while the Bank of Japan remains wedded to its super low interest rate policy.
Thomas
U.S. Stocks Outlook: Can It Reverse Its Downtrend This October?
The global stock market has finally closed the book on what has been the most challenging month of the year. What are the key factors to watch for into the final quarter of the year?
IG
Will the Oil Price Hit $100 Per Barrel?
The 100-mark might be achievable, given the increasing demand and reduced supply by OPEC + in the past few months. However, crude prices might not be able to sustain above the level due to global economic uncertainties.
CMC
New Zealand Dollar Slides on RBNZ Pause Expectations
The New Zealand dollar is falling and could fall further if the RBNZ pauses rate hikes on Wednesday. This is because investors may take it as a sign that the central bank is concerned about the risk of a recession. The RBNZ is facing a difficult challenge, as it needs to balance the need to combat high inflation with the risk of tipping the economy into a recession.
Warren Takunda
What Are the Next Steps as U.S. House Searches for New Speaker?
The U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in its history has booted its speaker out of the job, as infighting in the narrow and bitterly divided Republican majority toppled Kevin McCarthy from the position.
Cohen
Turkey's Annual Inflation Continued to Rise in September
Annual inflation recorded another strong increase in September due to a broad-based deterioration in price dynamics while the rise in energy prices and continuing pressure in services is attracting attention.
Devin
October 4th Financial News
U.S. House votes to remove Republican House Speaker McCarthy; U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly to 9.61 million in August, while layoffs remained low; the yen rebounds after falling below 150 amid talk of Japan's intervention...
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