OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.
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Alex
Tighter financing conditions in markets sparked by banking sector turmoil may have done much of central banks' jobs for them, boosting the case for an end to interest rate hikes soon.
It's a close call, but we expect a 25bp hike by the Fed today. Ultimately, Powell's primary goal is to restore investor confidence and a hold might signal a lack of trust in the financial system.
Samantha Luan
Devin Wang
Samantha Luan
As the mood in the financial markets seems to be rather upbeat, Asian markets are riding the wave of positivity, tracing the upward trajectory set by their U.S. counterparts.
Cohen
Gold prices have fallen from their annual highs as global banking jitters (now) have passed away and U.S. Treasury Securities yields have found a bottom. Nevertheless, the risk sentiment does not seem to have been completely released. Preventing the risk of the contagion of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis may become the first objective of the Federal Reserve's efforts during the year.
EUR/USD has not shown any strong movement, try to buy low and sell high in the channel.
Gold will retrace but is hard to reverse.
AUDCHF pair is showing signs of a potential reversal, and traders should exercise caution when trading this pair. The technical indicators suggest that the price may continue to fall, and traders should look for potential short opportunities.
Although gold has formed a bearish pattern, the price performance does not look bearish and we have decided to stay away from bearish positions for now. Due to the limited upside potential so far, long positions can be established in the 1H and below time frame.
Gold prices have fallen from their annual highs as global banking jitters (now) have passed away and U.S. Treasury Securities yields have found a bottom. Nevertheless, the risk sentiment does not seem to have been completely released. Preventing the risk of the contagion of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis may become the first objective of the Federal Reserve's efforts during the year.
Gold will retrace but is hard to reverse.
Gold prices have been surging recently as people look to protect their savings amidst the bankruptcy of several large banks. Currently, gold prices are trading below the all-time high of around $2075 but have been steadily climbing towards the resistance level of $2000.
WTI oil prices are currently below the US storage launch price announced previously, and declines may be limited.
The crisis has been eased and the oil price has rallied. But it is difficult to change the weakness in the short term, so the strategy is to go short in the short term and go long in the long term.
Crude oil suffers a sell-off amid systemic risks, with prices showing a breakdown to the downside.
Oil prices have experienced a rebound after a three-day decline, as reports emerged that Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed ways to enhance market stability. The two countries remain committed to their decision to cut production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. Additionally, the financial sector's strong rebound led to a sharp increase in US stocks, which also boosted oil prices.
The DXY's falling trend has implications for the stock market, which may go up if the trend continues. However, the upcoming CPI data will be a crucial determinant for the DXY's trend. Technical analysis suggests a possible retrace of the trend around 104.7 supply and demand zone. The short-term trend may be volatile until the release of the CPI data.
After the Federal Reserve chairman gave testimony in the Senate, the U.S Dollar Index (USDX) tested close to its highest level since early December of 106.00. For now, volatility should remain high and the risk balance in the market is expected to continue to tilt upwards. The focus of today's market will be on testimony 2.0 (the chairman of the Fed testifies in the House of Representatives). Meanwhile, the U.S. ADP employment change in February will be seen as a new driver.
The foreign exchange market started the week on a steady note, buoyed by a strong rally in equities last week and a market that seemed to shrug off a slightly lower-than-expected Chinese growth target.
USD may continue to be strong in the near term, but its strength will fade in the medium- to long- term according to the economic fundamentals.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will decide on monetary policy on Thursday. Until a few days ago, the market was confident that the ECB would raise interest rates by 50 basis points. After all, this is exactly what ECB President Lagarde and several other members strongly hinted at. But the situation has changed dramatically in recent days. The sharp fall in European banking stocks led by Credit Suisse seems to have triggered risk aversion, which has allowed the USD to gather strength and put the EUR under heavy bearish pressure.
EUR/USD has not shown any strong movement, try to buy low and sell high in the channel.
The European Central Bank raised its three main policy rates by 50 basis points but gave no guidance on the future policy path in line with market expectations. The ECB highlighted the prevailing risks to the economic and inflation outlook, but further rate hikes may be needed if the current crisis is effectively mitigated.
EURUSD currency pair is currently attracting the attention of traders and investors due to both fundamental and technical factors. The market is anticipating a weaker US dollar, bullish indices, and bullish cryptocurrencies, which is expected to push the euro higher. Traders are closely watching the 1.071 support and resistance zone for a potential buying opportunity, with the next target set at 1.10. As always, it's essential to keep an eye on market developments and adjust trading strategies accordingly
The USDJPY currency pair has been forming a head and shoulder pattern on the weekly and daily timeframes, which suggests a potential downward movement in the market. Additionally, the 1D demand zone was breached and pushed the price up to the height of the right shoulder. This article will examine the technical and fundamental factors that are driving the market and provide a forecast for the USDJPY currency pair.
The USDJPY began a correction earlier this week as yields on U.S. Treasury Securities fell. Nonetheless, the USDJPY rebounded after hitting a monthly low of 132.34, with bear covering showing up just before the release of the U.S. consumer price index.
US dollar loses more against other major economies as SVB impact dampens expectations of US interest rate hikes. Over the past three trading sessions, we have witnessed a rapid collapse of the USD/JPY rally.
In conclusion, the banking crisis in the U.S. has resulted in a liquidity shift towards the safe haven currency of the Yen, which has strengthened more than other currencies. Traders should watch for potential bullish signals around the support level of 132.00 before considering short positions. As the crisis intensifies further, traders may consider buying the JPY against currencies that are affected by the crisis. However, traders should also be cautious and watch for potential bearish signals in the Yen.
UK GDP improved in January, but industrial and manufacturing production deteriorated. The GBPUSD advanced for the third day in a row amid a continued decline in the U.S. dollar. The overall optimistic UK GDP data for January favored the pound and provided support ahead of the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data.
GBPUSD lost momentum and fell below the 1.2050 level after hitting an intra-day high above 1.2100 in early European trade. The pair is currently in a neutral range. Investors are trading cautiously as they watch how the ECB will set policy amid market tensions.
Based on the alignment of fundamental, technical, and sentiment factors, we believe that the GBPUSD bears are in control, and it is a good time to look for opportunities to go short. The rejection of the broken support turned into resistance and a 50% FIB level provides a good opportunity to enter a short position. Traders can consider waiting for a bearish entry signal at this level before entering a short position.
The GBPUSD touched its highest level since Feb.14 during the Asian session on Monday. In the first half of the European session, the pair traded above the 1.2200 mark and remained under the influence of the price dynamics of the dollar.
Although the Australian Bureau of Statistics published optimistic monthly retail sales data, the AUD failed to find more buying. The monthly economic data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is 1.9%, which is higher than the market expectation of 1.5%. In December, retail sales contracted by 3.9%.
Australian unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) reached 3.7% in January, highest since May 2022.
While the RBA's interest rate decision has caused the AUD to drop, it does not necessarily mean that interest rate hikes in Australia are over. The market is currently in a downward trend, and traders should carefully monitor economic data and market trends
The AUDUSD encountered heavy supply on Wednesday and fell back near its weekly lows. An increase in investors' bets on further Fed rate hikes, pushing the USD back towards a multi-week high, was a key driver of the AUDUSD's sell-off tone. The rebound in the next few days may be fragile, and we are looking for a possible downside depletion when the pullback occurs.
FTM-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+452.30%
Annualized Return
81.38%
Max Drawdown
Low Risk
AVAX-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+194.27%
Annualized Return
77.02%
Max Drawdown
Low Risk
ADA-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+80.23%
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Low Risk
BTC-USDT Trend Tracking Strategy
+32.59%
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COMEX GOLD model based on similarity metrics
+22.65%
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Medium Risk
USDCHF Strategy (ARIMA timing analysis)
+19.35%
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16.26%
Max Drawdown
Medium Risk
Calculates the probabilities of certain assets prices going up/down driven by key economic data releases
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Central Bank Data
Gold - Fundamental Drivers
Crude Oil - Fundamental Drivers
OPEC production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) only includes crude oil production data.