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Views from Institutions

Optimism Returns To Germany As The Ifo Jumps Again

A third monthly increase in the Ifo index strengthens the view that the German economy has left its economic trough behind and should be able to enjoy some more cyclical improvement.


Will the BoJ Disappoint Once Again?

BoJ manages to upset the market even with historic hike. Yen tumbles to 34-year low even as market prices in summer hike. Will another disappointment trigger yen intervention?


Survey Divergence Hits the Dollar

The dollar is trading weaker on the back of the US-Europe PMI divergence. We'd be cautious about jumping into a bearish narrative on the back of soft activity surveys...


Tesla Jumps Despite Earnings Miss

News of improved activity boosted appetite in the Stoxx 600 ahead of closely watched bank earnings in the next few days...


Will The U.S. Consumer Keep Economic Growth Afloat?

American consumers are rather adept at spending beyond their means suggesting that so long as labor markets remain tight and incomes are supported, barring an unforeseen shock, gradually cooling consumption growth should allow for a soft landing.


Slow Grind on Disinflation, RBA on Hold

Inflation was a bit higher than expected in the March quarter. It is declining...


The Commodities Feed: Middle East Tensions Ease

The oil market traded little changed in the early trading session today as part of a broader risk-off move across markets.


Analyzing Market Impacts: Insights into the Upcoming 5-Year and 7-Year US Treasury Auctions

Despite the considerable size of the auction, the 5-year US Treasury auction is poised to outperform the 7-year auction. This is due to the likelihood that the current pricing of these notes may result in the second-highest auction yield...


Without of Hawkish Stance from BoJ, USD/JPY Will Likely Continue Upside Trajectory

The week started on a hopeful note after the de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran...


Without of Hawkish Stance from BoJ, USD/JPY Will Likely Continue Upside Trajectory

The week started on a hopeful note after the de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran...


April Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Waiting for Godot?

An update to the Committee's economic projections will not be released at the end of next week's meeting, but the post-meeting statement...


Weekly Technical Outlook – Dollar Index, USDJPY, EURUSD

Will US GDP boost the dollar index?Yen looks steady ahead of BoJ decision. Eurozone flash PMIs may halt EURUSD’s bearish actions.


FX Daily: Data to Regain Centrality

Markets are pricing out some geopolitical risk and sentiment is looking supported at the start of this week…


Relief Before Earnings

The week starts with a relief rally in equities following a calm weekend on the geopolitical scene. The US 2-year yield pushes above 5% ahead of US GDP and PCE updates. Four of Magnificent 7 are due to report earnings this week.


Gold Rice Forecast: Sustainable Bull Markpets Need to Breathe Occasionally

The inverse relationship between bond yields and US dollar with the gold price has broken down in 2024, meaning technicals and inflation expectations are arguably a more important driver right now.


Middle East Escalation Boosts Oil Supply Risks

The oil market continues to be supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The lack of price action following recent escalation has been surprising but suggests there...


What New Metal Sanctions on Russia Mean for Global Trade

The London Metal Exchange has banned delivery of new Russian metal following sanctions imposed by the US and UK for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine…


Market Continues to Price in a Plethora of Rate Cuts for 2024

Divergent cut expectations for the Fed and the ECB, reflecting economic conditions. The ECB and the BoC are seen cutting in July; the RBA might not cut rates this year…


FX Daily: Middle East Turmoil Strengthens Dollar Position

Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran overnight triggered an initially big reaction across asset classes, although markets appear moderately less concerned at the European market open.


A Lack of Shock and Awe

The United States is an outlier among advanced economies, so how much signal should policymakers elsewhere take from recent upside surprises on US inflation? Less than some people seem to think.


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