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Views from Institutions

Dollar Trades Mixed After Fed Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve surprised the market yesterday by cutting the dollar rate by 0.5%, with expectations that a similar reduction might occur by the end of the year.

FXOpen

Is BoJ On Hold Until December’s Meeting?

BoJ interest rate decision on Friday at 03:00 GMT.

Brent Crude Oil Price Still Bounces Off Lows, While Silver, Sugar Prices Rally

The Brent crude oil price continues to recover from its multi-year low but may soon encounter resistance, while silver and sugar prices rally.

Fed Delivers ‘Hawkish’ 50bp Rate Cut

Today we will focus on multiple central bank monetary policy meetings.

Danske Bank

Market Thoughts – Thursday 19th September – The Morning After The Night Before

Markets continue to digest the Fed’s 50bp cut this morning, with equity futures advancing overnight, as focus shifts to today’s decisions from the BoE and Norges Bank.

Pepperstone

Minutes of BOC Monetary Policy Meeting: Guard Against Downside Risks to the Economy

The minutes of the Bank of Canada's policy meeting released on Wednesday reflected that members agreed that with broad inflationary pressures continuing to ease, it was appropriate to reduce the policy rate further. With inflation approaching the target, they needed to increasingly guard against the downside risks to inflation stemming from weakness in economic activity.

BOC

The Commodities Feed: The Fed Goes Big

The 50bp cut from the Fed led to some brief price spikes across the commodities complex. However, with the 50bp cut largely priced in, the move was short-lived.

ING

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 19, 2024

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

SAXO

Fed's Sept. Rate Decision: Cutting Rates by 50 bps and Kicking Off Easing Cycle

The Federal Reserve announced on September 18 that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a level between 4-3/4 to 5 percent, which is the first interest rate cut since March 2020, and marks a shift in monetary policy from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle.

FED

Fed Cuts Rates By An Oversized 50 Basis Points

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (bps), to 4.75% to 5.00% and announced it would continue its balance sheet runoff.

TD Securities

Fomc Starts Easing Cycle With A Bang

The FOMC surprised some market participants today by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 bps. Concerns about the state of the labor market appear to have been the primary driver of the 50 bps move.

WELLS FARGO

Fomc’s Normalisation Cycle Begins

50bps delivered and another 50bps seen by year end by the FOMC.

Westpac

50bp Cut From The Fed As It Looks To Move Rates To Neutral Quickly And Avert Recession

The US Federal Reserve wants to get to neutral quickly as it increasingly prioritises potential job weakness at a time when it is more comfortable with the inflation backdrop. We look for a further 150bp of cuts by next summer, but the risks are skewed towards the central bank doing more.

ING

US Election Countdown: A Very Divided America

With seven weeks to go, the election outcome is as uncertain as ever. This week, markets have both eyes on the Federal Reserve and whether it kicks off the first rate cutting cycle since the pandemic with a large or small cut.

SAXO

Soft-landing, Or No Soft-landing, That Is The Question: Part IV

A New Framework to Predict Probability of Monetary Policy Pivots.

WELLS FARGO

How Can We Account for the Increase in the Price of Gold?

The price of gold has doubled since 2019, with a notable acceleration in its increase in 2023 . This rise is unexpected, given that rising real interest rates, a slowdown in inflation and a strong dollar should have dragged the price down. Purchases of gold by emerging market central banks and individual investors have bolstered demand, explaining the price increase, against a backdrop of high and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Banque de France

With Gold Reaching New Heights, Silver Shows Potential

While gold has captured most attention, silver supported by industrial metal strength is once again outperforming.

SAXO

Will Fomc Cut By 25 or 50bp?

Today’s main event will be the FOMC rate decision at 20:00 CET – we expect a 25bp cut of the Fed Funds Rate target (to 5.00-5.25%).

Danske Bank

Nikkei 225 Bulls And Bears Wage War, Explosive Move Incoming?

Nikkei futures look like a market where bulls and bears are waging war, all while the price continues to coil up within a symmetrical triangle, waiting for a potential explosive break.

FOREX.com

UK August CPI: Services Inflation Picks Up, Interest Rates Expected to Be Held Steady in September

Data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.2% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% month-on-month, also matching the forecast. The services inflation rate rebounded to 5.6% in August from 5.2% in July.

ONS

FX Daily: A Dovish 25bp Fed Cut To Offer Only Short-lived Respite To Dollar

Our economists are calling for a 25bp cut by the Fed today, but admit it is an exceptionally close call. Markets are narrowly favouring a 50bp reduction. The dollar should rally on a 25bp move. However, if Powell and Dot Plots are as dovish as we think, dollar gains may soon prove unsustainable.

ING

Canada August CPI Hits 2% for First Time in 3 Years, Boosting Rate-Cut Expectations

On September 17, local time, Statistics Canada reported that Canada's CPI rose 2.0% year-over-year in August, down from a 2.5% gain in July and marking the lowest level since February 2021. The monthly CPI dropped 0.2%, in line with expectations.

Statistics Canada

Could BoE Surprise With A Rate Cut On Thursday?

BoE meeting concludes on Thursday, the day after the Fed. Economists assign an almost zero chance of a rate cut.

Market Thoughts – Wednesday 18th September – Time For J-Pow To Step Up

Markets trod water yesterday. Today, all eyes are on the FOMC, as market expectations remain delicately poised between a 25bp, or a 50bp, cut. What matters, though, is not the magnitude of today’s cut, but the speed at which rates return to a neutral level.

Pepperstone

U.S. August Retail Sales Rise Surprisingly, Indicating Economy Still On Solid Ground

U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% from the previous month in August, beating market expectations for a 0.2% decrease, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday. In addition, July's month-over-month retail sales were revised upward to 1.1%, suggesting that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground as the third quarter progresses.

Census Bureau

Canadian Headline Inflation Hits The Target

Headline CPI inflation edged lower in August to 2.0% year-on-year (y/y), versus 2.5% y/y in July, and just below consensus expectations of 2.1% y/y.

TD Securities

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 18, 2024

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

SAXO

Fear Does Not Leave The Crypto Market

The crypto market capitalisation remained at $2.04 trillion, the same as the previous day, although it fell to $2.01 trillion during the day before rebounding on Tuesday morning.

FxPro

Will It End In Tears?

The reality is that, no one knows what the Fed will do right now.

Swissquote

Will Fed Cut By 25 Bps Or 50 Bps?

Fed is expected to cut rates, but is it too late to the game?

Fiber-to-the-Home: Missed Connections?

The Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) sector may have faced some headwinds that have left infrastructure investors wary but recent developments are all coming at a time when expectations have been reset, which unlocks new opportunities for infrastructure investors.

UBS

Ørsted’s Halt On Hydrogen Plant Highlights Synthetic Fuel Challenge

Ørsted, widely considered the greenest energy company in the world, recently decided to stop the construction of a plant for hydrogen-based fuel. There’s no clearer sign of the bumpy road ahead for synthetic fuel in aviation and shipping.

ING

The Jobs Mosaic

It is quite clear that job growth has slowed over the past year as the post-covid rebound has faded. But is the labor market stalling, or just slowing to a more gradual pace?

JPMorgan

Improvement In Hungary’s Inflation Outlook

Although services inflation continues to be a concern, the recent decline in overall inflation has brightened Hungary’s near-term inflation outlook. Consequently, we have revised our CPI forecasts for 2024 and 2025 downward, albeit with some risks for the coming year. The door is now open for a September rate cut by the central bank.

ING

Bond Market Outlook: Why U.S. Treasuries Look Expensive Ahead of the Upcoming Rate-Cutting Cycle

The recent rally in U.S. Treasury (UST) bonds has raised questions about the sustainability of current pricing levels.

SAXO

Driving Conversations and Action on Sustainability

Engagement by limited partners in private markets.

UBS

President Harris Scenario: Sustained Climate Ambition Faces a Bumpy Road

We expect Vice President Kamala Harris to depart from her 2020 stance and move towards the centre. She is likely to preserve the Biden administration’s most important climate legacy, emphasising a more efficient implementation of the IRA. Harris would want to strengthen environmental regulation but her ability to do so would be constrained.

ING

US House Prices are Forecast to Rise More Than 4% Next Year

US home prices are expected to climb as the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates while the underlying economy is still firm, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Goldman Sachs

Election Faceoff: Harris and Trump’s Policy Differences and How to Weather Volatility

The U.S. election brings both risks and opportunities for investors. The key to successfully positioning your investments in the mid to long term is understanding how fiscal policies are likely to evolve.

SAXO

Oil Demand Worries And Natural Gas Supply Risks

Demand concerns and prospects for a supply surplus in 2025 have weighed on oil prices; we’ve revised lower our Brent forecast for the rest of the year. European natural gas prices remain elevated on the back of supply risks.

ING

A Compelling Opportunity in REITs

Given the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates in 2H24, we believe now is an excellent time to consider an allocation to REITs.

Morgan Stanley

Trump Constrained Scenario: Energy Dominance And Transition In Parallel

The US energy transition is expected to slow down due to weakened regulation and funding support. However, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is likely to survive because of its job creation and economic benefits. Nonetheless, without a comprehensive climate policy ecosystem, the US green agenda may become obscured.

ING

The Strategy for Uncertainty? Raise Quality

Is the glass half full or half empty? As an investor, your answer might depend on your current portfolio allocation and preference of time horizon.

Citibank

Biogas – An Untapped Source of Renewable Energy

Biogas and biomethane are renewable gases which may help reduce emissions across the energy value chain. Yet, their potential remains largely untapped.

UBS

At A Glance: The World Right Now

Recession risks, rate cut bets, carry trade unwinds. This summer had it all. Here’s our look at where the world is as we head into Autumn.

ING

Artificial Intelligence Insights

What does it mean for real estate?

UBS

How is Inflation Progressing Ahead of the First Rate Cut?

We continue to expect the Fed will opt to cut by 25 basis points, but the pace and magnitude of the easing cycle thereafter will depend crucially on the Jobs mosaic.

JPMorgan

The Bullish Outlook for UK Stocks

UK stocks have outperformed several major asset classes and equity markets around the world this year.

Goldman Sachs

US Election: Will Gold Win in All Scenarios?

Here are some of the reasons, both pre- and post-election that gold has risen and could continue to perform strongly over the coming foreseeable time frame out to a year or more.

SAXO

Gold Monthly: Gold’s Rally Is Just Getting Started

We believe the most anticipated US rate cut in decades will bring fresh impetus to gold prices. We have revised our gold forecast higher, and we now expect prices to average $2,700 in 2025.

ING

Steepest Deterioration in Trade Conditions Since December 2023

The worldwide Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that global trade further deteriorated midway through the third quarter of 2024.

S&P Global Inc.

What Are Your Options: Fall 2024: Strategic Guidelines for Volatile Markets

This article provides strategic guidelines for navigating the volatile fall 2024 markets, focusing on premium-selling and premium-buying options strategies, while emphasizing the importance of careful timing, risk management, and selecting market-neutral approaches to capitalize on heightened volatility.

SAXO

The Upcoming Rate Cut: 5 Things Homebuyers Should Consider

The Federal Reserve has kept its interest rates unchanged for over a year. However, this is expected to change in the coming week.

NAR

Investment Weekly: Emerging Rotations

Private equity activity has been sluggish since mid-2022 – demanding caution on the part of investors. But green shoots of recovery and a pick-up in investment deal-making could signal a turning point.

HSBC

What Are the Key Policy Implications in the 2024 Presidential Race?

Trade policy is one of the few areas of significant bipartisan agreement. However, the two sides differ in their approaches.

JPMorgan

European Carmakers Are Struggling Amid Historic EV Shift

European carmakers are struggling with competing interests. Volvo’s about-turn on electric vehicles is an example of how many are now downplaying their EV commitments amid demand and profitability uncertainty. But short-term decisions won’t change the overall direction of EVs.

ING

Week Ahead – Fed to Cut Interest Rates, BoE and BoJ to Remain on Hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut.BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November.BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals.

More Weakness for the USD to Come as the FED Cuts 25bps

Recent economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve have increased the likelihood of a more significant interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 18th.

ACY

Macro Trader: Short-, Medium-, And Long-Run Thoughts On The FOMC Outlook

The September FOMC decision will see the normalisation process get underway, though markets might not get the degree of easing that they seek just yet, even if a more rapid return to neutral could well be on the cards in the longer-run.

Pepperstone

A Snapshot of Major Economy Productivity and Costs

In this report, we examine wage, productivity and labor cost trends across the G10 economies to offer insight into how inflationary pressures could evolve and how respective central banks may approach their monetary easing cycles.

WELLS FARGO

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Dollar Trades Mixed After Fed Rate Cut

Is BoJ On Hold Until December’s Meeting?

Brent Crude Oil Price Still Bounces Off Lows, While Silver, Sugar Prices Rally

Fed Delivers ‘Hawkish’ 50bp Rate Cut

Market Thoughts – Thursday 19th September – The Morning After The Night Before

Minutes of BOC Monetary Policy Meeting: Guard Against Downside Risks to the Economy

The Commodities Feed: The Fed Goes Big

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 19, 2024

Fed's Sept. Rate Decision: Cutting Rates by 50 bps and Kicking Off Easing Cycle

Fed Cuts Rates By An Oversized 50 Basis Points

Fomc Starts Easing Cycle With A Bang

Fomc’s Normalisation Cycle Begins

50bp Cut From The Fed As It Looks To Move Rates To Neutral Quickly And Avert Recession

US Election Countdown: A Very Divided America

Soft-landing, Or No Soft-landing, That Is The Question: Part IV

How Can We Account for the Increase in the Price of Gold?

With Gold Reaching New Heights, Silver Shows Potential

Will Fomc Cut By 25 or 50bp?

Nikkei 225 Bulls And Bears Wage War, Explosive Move Incoming?

UK August CPI: Services Inflation Picks Up, Interest Rates Expected to Be Held Steady in September

FX Daily: A Dovish 25bp Fed Cut To Offer Only Short-lived Respite To Dollar

Canada August CPI Hits 2% for First Time in 3 Years, Boosting Rate-Cut Expectations

Could BoE Surprise With A Rate Cut On Thursday?

Market Thoughts – Wednesday 18th September – Time For J-Pow To Step Up

U.S. August Retail Sales Rise Surprisingly, Indicating Economy Still On Solid Ground

Canadian Headline Inflation Hits The Target

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 18, 2024

Fear Does Not Leave The Crypto Market

Will It End In Tears?

Will Fed Cut By 25 Bps Or 50 Bps?

Fiber-to-the-Home: Missed Connections?

Ørsted’s Halt On Hydrogen Plant Highlights Synthetic Fuel Challenge

The Jobs Mosaic

Improvement In Hungary’s Inflation Outlook

Bond Market Outlook: Why U.S. Treasuries Look Expensive Ahead of the Upcoming Rate-Cutting Cycle

Driving Conversations and Action on Sustainability

President Harris Scenario: Sustained Climate Ambition Faces a Bumpy Road

US House Prices are Forecast to Rise More Than 4% Next Year

Election Faceoff: Harris and Trump’s Policy Differences and How to Weather Volatility

Oil Demand Worries And Natural Gas Supply Risks

A Compelling Opportunity in REITs

Trump Constrained Scenario: Energy Dominance And Transition In Parallel

The Strategy for Uncertainty? Raise Quality

Biogas – An Untapped Source of Renewable Energy

At A Glance: The World Right Now

Artificial Intelligence Insights

How is Inflation Progressing Ahead of the First Rate Cut?

The Bullish Outlook for UK Stocks

US Election: Will Gold Win in All Scenarios?

Gold Monthly: Gold’s Rally Is Just Getting Started

Steepest Deterioration in Trade Conditions Since December 2023

What Are Your Options: Fall 2024: Strategic Guidelines for Volatile Markets

The Upcoming Rate Cut: 5 Things Homebuyers Should Consider

Investment Weekly: Emerging Rotations

What Are the Key Policy Implications in the 2024 Presidential Race?

European Carmakers Are Struggling Amid Historic EV Shift

Week Ahead – Fed to Cut Interest Rates, BoE and BoJ to Remain on Hold

More Weakness for the USD to Come as the FED Cuts 25bps

Macro Trader: Short-, Medium-, And Long-Run Thoughts On The FOMC Outlook

A Snapshot of Major Economy Productivity and Costs

Risk Disclosure