Bond

Pressure on corporate bond spreads, or the premium paid by companies over risk-free Treasuries, to widen will likely persist as investors grow cautious of the domestic economic outlook and await the implications of the global trade war.

Ukraine's international bonds suffered sharp falls on Monday following a clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump late on Friday.

UK bond syndication attracts biggest ever order book despite volatility. The UK Debt Management Office’s first public sale of the year impressed with an unprecedented level of demand despite a huge sell-off in gilts over recent months.

The latest Trump administration angle is for rates to be pushed lower through downward pressure on the 10yr yield, through lower inflation and a lower fiscal deficit. Achieve that and we'd agree. But achieve it first. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to cut by 25bp, in line with market pricing. Going forward we see more GBP curve steepening.

The repricing had left traders largely in sync with the Fed, which has adopted a wait-and-see approach as it watches for inflation to come back closer to its 2% target.

"We believe final implementation of the Clearing Rule will provide improvements for this market," SIFMA and the other signatories of the letter said.

Hungary's government plans to further tighten the fiscal deficit; however, fiscal risk remains to the upside due to the political cycle. The debt agency focus is shifting to Hungary government bonds (HGBs), and we will see less retail and FX issuance this year. Average debt maturity should increase with concentration at the long end of the curve.

Poland indicates a second straight year of historically record gross borrowing needs and government bond issuance. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance continues to diversify funding sources to attract demand. The resulting funding split will depend heavily on market interest. We see fiscal risk as balanced for this year, however, elections remain on the calendar ahead.

Foreign investors are exiting CEE4 markets and we see unfavourable conditions for this year. Governments have to rely more and more on domestic demand. Turkey should see a continued return of foreign investors to the local market. In terms of sovereign ratings, we are positive on Turkey but negative on Hungary and Romania.