Jane Street India Unit Saw Trading Gains Soar 494% Before Curbs

Singapore's real estate stocks are set for their best start in 14 years, buoyed by investor bets that upcoming earnings reports will unveil generous capital return plans.

The FTSE ST All-Share Real Estate Investment and Services Index — which tracks nine listed property development firms — has surged nearly 14% this year, marking the strongest January performance since 2012, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The rally has outpaced a broader Bloomberg index of Asian real estate stocks by around 10 percentage points over the same period.

Singapore's real estate sector has gained momentum, driven by a surge in private home sales and growing investor confidence amid easing borrowing costs. Optimism is also fueled by expectations that funds tied to Singapore's market reform initiative will flow into mid- and small-cap names, further boosting the sector.

"Real estate stocks in Singapore have garnered increasing interest over the past year, buoyed by a more favorable interest rate environment and resilient industry outlook," Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. analysts, including Andy Wong, wrote in a report. Several companies in the sector "have been very active in capital recycling and reconstituting their portfolios, while also carrying out share buybacks."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

A surprisingly strong finish to 2025 for Malaysia's economy has prompted economists to recalibrate their expectations for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), with most now forecasting the central bank will keep its key interest rate stable.

The shift in sentiment comes after the Department of Statistics Malaysia released an advance estimate showing the economy expanded by 5.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. This robust performance pushed full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 to 4.9%, beating many earlier projections.

Stronger Growth Dampens Rate Cut Expectations

Following the impressive data, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd stated it anticipates BNM will maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at its current level throughout 2026. The bank argues that with economic growth on a moderate and stable track, coupled with tame inflation, there is little pressure for a policy change.

CIMB has revised its GDP growth forecast for Malaysia in 2026 upward to 4.4%, from a previous estimate of 4.1%. The bank expects a "stable OPR outlook," supported by benign demand-driven inflation, a strong Malaysian Ringgit, and expanded productive capacity.

Public Investment Bank Bhd echoed this view, noting the strong fourth-quarter performance creates an upside bias to its own full-year 2025 GDP forecast of 4.7%. The firm acknowledged that growth could reach 4.9% if the momentum continued through the end of the year.

Domestic Demand to Drive 2026 Economy

Analysts project that Malaysia's economic growth in 2026 will be primarily anchored by domestic activity. Several key factors are expected to support this trend:

• Services Sector: This sector is forecast to be the main engine of growth, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and storage.

• Government Support: A second round of salary adjustments for civil servants and cash assistance programs like SARA and STR will bolster consumer spending.

• Tourism: The Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign is expected to provide a significant boost to tourism-related activities, including food, beverages, and accommodation.

However, this domestic strength is likely to be tempered by challenges in the manufacturing sector. Weaker external demand, especially for non-electrical and electronics exports, is expected to cause a moderation in this area.

Inflation Outlook Remains Subdued

A crucial factor supporting a stable OPR is the outlook for inflation, which is expected to remain low. CIMB projects that inflation will average just 1.5% year-on-year in 2026, citing several reasons:

• Low Input Costs: Energy prices and other input costs remain contained.

• Limited Price Hikes: After an excise duty increase on alcohol and tobacco in November, economists do not foresee further adjustments to government-administered prices.

Analysts from both CIMB and Public Investment Bank highlighted that the late-2025 economic outperformance was broad-based. Growth was not confined to a single area, with the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors all contributing significantly. The construction sector’s strength was driven by non-residential buildings and specialized construction activities.

A high-speed train derailed and smashed into another oncoming train in southern Spain on Sunday, pushing the second train off the tracks in a collision that police sources confirmed to Reuters had killed at least 21 people.

The accident happened near Adamuz, in Cordoba province. So far, 21 people have been confirmed dead by police, with state broadcaster Television Espanola adding that 100 people had been injured, 25 seriously. The driver of one of the trains, which was travelling from Madrid to Huelva, was among those who died, the TV station added.

Map of railroad collision in southern Spain

"The Iryo 6189 Malaga - (to Madrid) train has derailed from the track at Adamuz, crashing onto the adjacent track. The (Madrid) to Huelva train which was travelling on the adjacent track has also derailed," said Adif, which runs the rail network, in a social media post.

Adif said the accident happened at 6:40 p.m. (1740 GMT), about 10 minutes after the Iryo train left Cordoba heading towards Madrid.

Iryo is a private rail operator, majority-owned by Italian state-controlled railway group Ferrovie dello Stato. The train involved was a Freccia 1000 train which was travelling between Malaga and Madrid, a spokesperson for Ferrovie dello Stato said.

The company said in a statement that it deeply regretted what had happened and had activated all emergency protocols to work closely with the relevant authorities to manage the situation.

The second train was operated by Renfe, which also did not respond to a request for comment.

Adif has suspended all rail services between Madrid and Andalusia.

HORRIFIC SCENE

The Iryo train had more than 300 passengers on board, while the Renfe train had around 100.

Paco Carmona, Cordoba fire chief, told TVE the first train heading to Madrid from Malaga had been evacuated.

The other train's carriages were badly damaged, he said, with twisted metal and seats. "There are still people trapped. We don't know how many people have died and the operation is concentrating on getting people out of areas which are very narrow," he said. "We have to remove the bodies to reach anyone who is still alive. It is proving to be a complicated task."

Transport Minister Oscar Puente said he was following events from rail operator Adif's headquarters in Madrid.

"The latest information is very serious," he posted on X. "The impact was terrible, causing the first two carriages of the Renfe train to be thrown off the track. The number of victims cannot be confirmed at this time. The most important thing now is to help the victims."

The mayor of Adamuz, Rafael Moreno, told El Pais newspaper that he had been among the first to arrive at the scene of the accident alongside the local police and saw what he believed to be a badly lacerated body several metres from the accident site.

"The scene is horrific," he said. "I don't think they were on the same track, but it's not clear. Now the mayors and residents of the area are focused on helping the passengers."

CALLS FOR MEDICS

Images on local television showed a reception centre set up for passengers in the town of Adamuz, population 5,000, with locals coming and going with food and blankets amid nighttime temperatures of around 42 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius).

A woman named Carmen posted on X that she had been on board the Iryo train to Madrid. "Ten minutes after departing (from Cordoba) the train started to shake a lot, and it derailed from coach 6 behind us. The lights went out."

Footage posted by another Iryo train passenger, also on X, showed an Iryo staffer in a fluorescent jacket instructing passengers to remain in their seats in the darkened carriages, and those with first aid training to keep watch over fellow passengers. He also urged people to maintain mobile phone batteries to be able to use their torches when they disembarked.

Salvador Jimenez, a journalist for RTVE who was on board the Iryo train, shared images showing the nose of the rear carriage of the train lying on its side, with evacuated passengers sitting on the side of the carriage facing upwards.

Jimenez told TVE by phone from beside the stricken trains that passengers had used emergency hammers to smash the windows and climb out, and they had seen two people taken out of the overturned carriages on stretchers.

"There's a certain uncertainty about when we'll get to Madrid, where we'll spend the night, we've had no message from the train company yet," he said. "It's very cold but here we are."

Source: Reuters

Oil prices showed little movement on Monday, holding steady after a recent rally as concerns over a potential supply disruption from Iran began to fade. The market is weighing easing geopolitical tensions against fresh data on U.S. crude inventories.

By 0158 GMT, Brent crude was trading up 5 cents at $64.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery edged up 8 cents to $59.52, with the more active March contract rising 2 cents to $59.36.

The "Iran Premium" Unwinds

A primary factor capping price gains is the situation in Iran. A government crackdown on protests over economic hardship has subdued civil unrest, lowering the perceived risk of a U.S. intervention that could threaten oil flows from OPEC's fourth-largest producer.

This de-escalation was seemingly supported by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who appeared to step back from earlier threats of intervention.

The market has responded by unwinding the "Iran premium" that had pushed prices to twelve-week highs, according to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. Despite the recent pullback, prices still settled higher on Friday, and the continued movement of U.S. military assets to the Gulf highlights lingering concerns.

US Stockpile Data Creates Headwinds

Adding to the bearish sentiment was recent U.S. inventory data that surprised the market. According to the EIA, domestic crude stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels in the week ending January 9.

This build-up contradicted analyst expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel draw, reinforcing what Sycamore described as "bearish supply pressures" on the market.

Venezuela's Slow Path to Recovery

Traders are also monitoring developments in Venezuela. President Trump has stated the U.S. would run the country's oil industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro, and the U.S. energy secretary confirmed that efforts are underway to grant Chevron an expanded production license.

However, the market remains skeptical about a quick turnaround for Venezuela's struggling oil sector. "It is becoming clear that Venezuela's production ramp-up will take many years to play out," noted Sycamore, suggesting that a significant supply increase from the nation is not imminent.

Guatemala's president declared a state of siege on Sunday after security forces freed dozens of prison guards held hostage by inmates, ending a weekend of gang violence that left at least seven police officers dead and another 10 injured.

Rioting inmates had taken 46 hostages at three men's prisons early on Saturday. The government blamed the riots on the Barrio 18 gang, which it said was pushing for greater privileges for its members in prison.

Gang-led violence targeted police in several areas around Guatemala City after security forces regained control of the prison where Barrio 18's leader, Aldo Duppie, was held. The gang leader, known as El Lobo, was taken back into custody.

President Bernardo Arevalo declared a 30-day state of siege that he said would allow the full force of the state, including the police and the army, to combat gang violence.

Under Guatemalan law, a state of siege can temporarily limit or suspend civil liberties and expand security forces' powers in response to threats to public order.

Images provided by the police showed officers on Sunday morning escorting Barrio 18's leader, who appeared to have a bloody shoulder, out of a prison that had been taken over by inmates.

Shortly afterward, simultaneous attacks against police officers broke out in and around the capital, in what Arevalo said was gang retaliation for taking back the prisons. One gang member was also killed in the violence.

"These murders were carried out with the intention of terrorizing the security forces and the population so that we give up in the fight against gangs and their regime of terror. But they will fail," Arevalo said.

Arevalo, who also declared three days of national mourning, said the state of siege should not alter normal life for Guatemalans.

Earlier on Sunday, National Civil Police director David Boteo had advised Guatemalans to stay at home, and the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala issued a security warning for U.S. citizens. Guatemala's education minister canceled school classes across the country on Monday, which Arevalo said was a preventive measure.

Guatemala's Congress declared Barrio 18 a terrorist group in October 2025, shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration classified the gang as a foreign terrorist organization.

El Lobo is currently serving prison sentences totaling some 2,000 years. He is married to the niece of Sandra Torres, Guatemala's former first lady who has been the runner-up in three presidential elections, most recently finishing second to Arevalo in 2023.

Source: Reuters

A new trade deal between the United States and Taiwan aims to shift more semiconductor production to American soil, but analysts argue the move is unlikely to end U.S. reliance on the island’s most advanced chips anytime soon. For now, Taiwan's strategic "silicon shield" remains firmly in place.

Taiwan is the undisputed leader in global chip manufacturing, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) producing the majority of the world's most advanced semiconductors. It's estimated that nearly a third of all new computing power is fabricated on the island. This dominance has made Taiwan’s security a strategic priority for Washington and its allies, as Beijing continues to claim sovereignty over the self-governed island.

Figure 1: The entrance to a Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) facility in Hsinchu. The company is at the center of the global advanced chip supply chain.

A New Deal to Reshore Chip Production

Under a trade agreement announced Thursday, the Taiwanese government has pledged to guarantee $250 billion in credit for its technology companies to expand production capacity in the U.S. In exchange, these firms will receive higher quotas for tariff-free chip imports into the American market.

The deal also includes tariff reductions from Washington, which will lower levies on most Taiwanese goods to 15% from 20% and eliminate tariffs on certain items like generic drugs, aircraft parts, and natural resources not available in the U.S.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC the goal is to bring 40% of Taiwan's entire semiconductor supply chain to the United States. However, experts are skeptical that this can be achieved easily, citing Taipei's strict policy of keeping its most advanced technology at home.

Why Washington Still Needs Taiwan's Top-Tier Chips

According to Sravan Kundojjala, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, Taiwan's "silicon shield" will remain strong through the end of the decade, with the world's most critical advanced manufacturing capacity staying concentrated on the island.

The global economy would face a "depression-level event if Taiwan were invaded tomorrow," Kundojjala added, highlighting the world's continued dependence.

The 'N-2 Rule': Taiwan's Built-in Tech Advantage

A key reason for this is Taiwan's "N-2 rule," a policy restricting TSMC's overseas factories to using technology that is at least two generations behind what is developed domestically.

This technology gap is already visible. While TSMC is producing its most advanced 2-nanometer chips in Taiwan, its new plant in Arizona has only recently started making 4-nanometer chips. Plans for the Arizona facility to scale up to 2-nanometer and A16 nodes are not expected until 2030. In chipmaking, a smaller nanometer size allows for denser, faster, and more energy-efficient processors. This four-to-five-year lag ensures Taiwan maintains its technological edge.

TSMC Keeps Its Most Advanced R&D at Home

Company leadership and government officials have made it clear that core innovation will not be leaving Taiwan.

TSMC's CFO, Wendell Huang, told CNBC that the company will continue developing its most advanced technologies in Taiwan. He cited the need for "very intensive collaboration" between domestic research and manufacturing teams. "We'll be sending hundreds of engineers back and forth [between] different sites in Taiwan. Therefore, it will stay in Taiwan when we ramp [up] the most leading-edge technology," Huang explained.

This strategy is backed by the government. Wu Cheng-wen, head of Taiwan's National Science and Technology Council, told the Financial Times last year that keeping cutting-edge R&D at home was crucial to prevent the domestic industry from being "hollowed out." He warned, "If we move our R&D overseas, it'll be dangerous for us."

Despite this, TSMC has pledged a $165 billion investment in U.S.-based chip fabrication facilities and an R&D lab to supply key customers like Nvidia and Apple.

The Hurdles of Building a US-Based Supply Chain

Analysts point to significant difficulties in shifting the semiconductor ecosystem away from Taiwan. William Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Taiwan's engineering talent and advanced fabrication capabilities are "not replicable at scale anywhere else."

Reinsch noted that a lack of trained workers and higher production costs have already caused delays at TSMC's U.S. plants, and the new trade deal does little to solve these underlying constraints. He expects the pledged investments to take longer than anticipated and potentially fall short of the promised levels.

"The semiconductor ecosystem cannot be relocated overnight, so the silicon shield may weaken but still exist in the near term," said Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, an associate professor at Sam Houston State University. He cautioned about the future, saying, "The bigger question is what happens after Trump: if future U.S. administrations keep pushing for large-scale relocation, Taiwan losing its exclusive advantage becomes less a question of if and more a question of when."

Geopolitical Calculus Remains Unchanged

In response to the deal, China's foreign ministry reiterated its opposition to any official agreements between Taiwan and countries that have diplomatic relations with Beijing, urging the U.S. to adhere to the "one-China principle."

However, the trade deal is unlikely to alter Beijing's strategic calculations. Ava Shen, an expert at Eurasia Group, said a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains a low-probability event. She noted that Chinese authorities are more focused on the military balance with the U.S. and the level of American defense support for Taipei.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials continue to emphasize the need to diversify their economy and strengthen their defense capabilities to counter military pressure from China.