King Ten

China's January CPI inflation was weaker than forecast at -0.8% YoY, which marks the lowest level since September 2009. We expect this to mark the bottom of the current cycle.

Trading is not a discipline, which cannot be measured by science; nor is it a job, which cannot be evaluated by progress. It is more like a kind of practice, where people can follow their hearts and not exceed the rules after seeking to internalize and return to the basics.

Another year, just over a month left until the Lunar New Year. At this critical time, pandemic controls have also been liberalized. Commodities as well as rights and interests have fortunately gained a short moment of spring. However, as China’s Social Financing released yesterday was less than expected, it poured cold water on the market again, leading to a rash correction. So what signal does that send?

According to an announcement in the early morning of last night, the "China’s Travel Code" will be officially offline on 13th November, which means that no one will care wherever you have been anymore. It basically announces that the pandemic that has lasted for 3 years has finally come to an end. There is a widely circulated joke recently, "We used to stock up on vegetables for a sudden lockdown, but now we hoard medicines to prevent fevers." Although it is crosstalk, it truly reflects people's mentality. Perhaps the panic is far more frightening than COVID-19 itself!

Since the financial run issue, credit bonds have been very risky, perhaps the redemption of wealth will not stop, but why is it happening? Before November it was the asset shortage, and now it suddenly becomes a debt shortage, wealth stampede redemptions, the decline is huger than equity, and few investors can stand it!

In early December, the BlackRock Real Estate funds suddenly appeared with significant negative news, which caused market concern. Following the night of December 7, Putin's speech about the nuclear war risk is rising triggered a rekindling of risk aversion in the market, with bonds and gold-based safe-haven assets rising and crude oil stocks risk assets plunging. Is risk aversion going to rise again? Will it cause a domino effect?

After the release of '20 measures to further optimize epidemic prevention and control work', places around China relax the pandemic control in late November. Many experts claimed that COVID-19 is weaker than the flu, making Chinese people ecstatic, as 3 years of the pandemic have finally seen a breakthrough. But as traders, suspicion, and preparation for the worst are necessary. It is questionable whether the virus has become weaker, or just the economy fails to sustain itself.

After getting through the black swan of Chinese bonds, It is thought that only Chinese debtors were the darkest in November. However, if it is found that Bridgewater Associates has almost lost a year's profit in two months recently, of which the black $125 billion real estate has basically been run, will the funds investors suddenly feel better at this moment? It turns out that both legendary hedge fund giants in the world, Bridgewater and Blackstone, are not much better off than us, the idea is a little gloating, but this is the mentality of investors.

Foreign institutions have recently started to unanimously talk down the dollar, and the opinion has become more "crowded". Last Friday night, several key U.S. data were better than expected, and the dollar rallied only fleeting, which was not a small blow to the bulls; but perhaps this also indicates that the current short positions are also beginning to be crowded, showing the power of the trend. If you insist on holding on to your initial "going long", you may not have gotten out of the game by the time the dollar turned around. But how long will this wave of retracement take?

The recent movements of various market segments are confusing, many calm segments are running potentially, leaving the surface becoming confusing. Consequently, many participants fail to trade objectively but are in a mess. During the time with massive information in the market, staying calm will be the best solution, as seeing things from different perspectives, the results will be different accordingly, and this is the charm of the market. For sure, sentiments and appearance will impact the market, but only the core can decide the final trend, so it is important to subtract appropriately and give the market enough patience.