UK's Market Rally on Thin Ice as Data Looms

King Ten

Data Interpretation

Bond

Forex

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Central Bank

Traders' Opinions

Stocks

Daily News

Summary:

Critical UK economic data looms, threatening the pound's rally and poised to intensify Bank of England rate cut bets.

A strong start to the year for the British pound, government bonds, and stocks is about to face its first major test with the release of critical economic data. While all three asset classes have posted gains, sterling is the most exposed to a potential downturn.

Upcoming inflation and unemployment figures could intensify bets on deeper interest-rate cuts from the Bank of England (BOE), creating significant headwinds for the currency. Despite the risk, the pound is currently on course for its fifth consecutive week of gains against a trade-weighted basket of currencies—its best performance since May.

"Inflation is clearly coming off the boil, likewise the UK labour market is weakening quite rapidly," noted Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privee. "That says to us that the BOE will have more flexibility to cut rates and that's going to weigh on sterling."

Sterling's Winning Streak Hangs in the Balance

Traders across bonds and equities will scrutinize the new data for clues on whether recent market momentum can continue. While figures showed the economy rebounded in November, real-time indicators from card spending and business confidence suggest a weak December. Furthermore, the market has yet to fully digest the impact of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' November budget, which increased taxes by £26 billion.

The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation rose in December, following a significant drop in November. The BOE has anticipated this move and believes any price increases will be temporary, with the long-term trend pointing lower.

Easing price pressures would strengthen the case for the BOE to lower borrowing costs. This would likely lead to falling bond yields, removing a key pillar of support for the pound, which has benefited from the UK's relatively high yields.

Adding to the concern are the unemployment statistics due on Tuesday. A recent survey showed that UK employers reduced hiring this month, fueling fears of a rapidly cooling jobs market. According to Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a multi-asset strategist at Mizuho International Plc, this data could be the "gunpowder markets need to price a more dovish BOE response."

Stretched Positioning Leaves the Pound Vulnerable

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have warned that stretched positioning makes the pound particularly susceptible to a downturn. They suggest sterling could deliver "the first big FX move of 2026" if the economic data comes in weaker than expected.

Figure 1: CFTC data reveals a sharp increase in speculative net long positions on the pound, making the currency vulnerable to a reversal if economic data disappoints.

Data from the CFTC shows that hedge funds and other speculators have significantly built up their bullish bets on the currency over the past month.

"The pound will be more sensitive to softer data than to strong," said Jane Foley, head of G10 FX strategy at Rabobank. She anticipates the currency will struggle to overcome a key technical resistance level of 0.8644 against the euro, its 200-day moving average.

The positive economic data for November, released Thursday, did little to support the pound, which ended the day down 0.3% on a trade-weighted basis. The rebound was partly driven by a one-off recovery at Jaguar Land Rover following a cyberattack, a factor unlikely to be repeated.

A Mixed Outlook for UK Stocks

The forecast for UK equities is more complex. The FTSE 100 has already gained 3% this year, rising above 10,000 points for the first time in history and capping its best year since 2009.

However, Barclays plc strategist Emmanuel Cau remains cautious, maintaining an underweight rating on UK stocks. He argues that companies with a domestic focus are vulnerable due to the nation's precarious fiscal situation. Meanwhile, the internationally-focused companies in the FTSE 100, often viewed as defensive investments, may eventually underperform their European counterparts.

Gilts Poised to Gain from Economic Weakness

For bond traders, signs of a weakening economy and increased wagers on rate cuts would be a bullish signal, potentially extending the strong start for UK government bonds, known as gilts. The BOE, along with the Federal Reserve, is one of three G-10 central banks expected to continue cutting rates this year.

"While the reported erosion in the UK government's fiscal buffer is a cause for concern, a complete wipe-out... isn't the base case. That buys the government time to set its fiscal house right, so there is no immediate risk for holders of gilts," explained Ven Ram, a macro strategist at Bloomberg Strategists.

This week, the 10-year gilt yield dropped to its lowest point since December 2024, and the two-year yield fell to a low not seen since August of that year. A Bloomberg index tracking gilts has risen 0.9%, marking its best start to a year since 2023.

David Roberts, co-portfolio manager of the Global Strategic Bond Fund at Nedgroup Investments, suggested that any volatility stemming from a poor showing by the Labour party in the May local elections could present a buying opportunity. "If gilts sell off for political reasons, without any real change in the economic fundamentals, we would likely take the other side of that move and go long the UK again," he said. Roberts recently took profits on UK bonds he purchased in August.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a "Great, Historic Investment in Rural Health Roundtable" in the East Room of the White House on Jan. 16, 2026 in Washington, DC.

President Donald Trump said Friday he may impose tariffs on countries "if they don't go along with Greenland."

"We need Greenland for national security. So I may do that," Trump said at the White House.

The comments show Trump considering applying tariffs, one of his favorite tools for leveraging his executive power over foreign countries, to his increasingly aggressive efforts to acquire Greenland for the United States.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for additional information on Trump's remarks.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Economic

The US Congress is set to avoid another government shutdown later this month by passing compromise bills that would soften spending cuts sought by the Trump administration, according to Republicans and Democrats involved in the process.

That would prevent a repeat of the 2025 government shutdown which disrupted government services and data for a record 43 days.

The bipartisan cooperation ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline is a remarkable turn of events after Democrats blocked stopgap funding in October and November in a failed attempt to exert policy influence — in that case, extending Obamacare subsidies.

Despite surging Democratic opposition in recent weeks to immigration raids in Minnesota and elsewhere ordered up by President Donald Trump’s administration, lawmakers have signaled they won’t shut the government down over the issue. Likewise, the now-expired health care subsidies — which show little sign of being revived — also aren’t seen as an impediment to reaching a new funding deal.

“We are not going to shut down,” said Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee that oversees government spending.

“Clearly everybody is trying to get there,” agreed Tom Cole, the Republican who chairs the House Appropriations Committee. “I feel good about where we are at.”

Most of the government is currently operating on a stopgap through Jan. 30. Yet even if there was a hangup now, its effects would be far less pronounced than during the last shutdown a few months ago.

After enacting three annual spending bills late last year, the House this month has advanced five more of the 12 annual funding bills with super-majority votes. It is poised to release a bipartisan final four-bill package next week. The Senate, meanwhile, has passed six of the bills passed by the House.

Hard compromises were needed in order to make sure Congress — and not the White House’s budget office — is once again directing US discretionary spending, said Senator Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

“You don’t win anything if you take your ball and go home,” Murray said.

ICE Battle

The collaborative spirit is hitting one key snag — on funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

Faulting ICE for causing unrest in cities like Minneapolis, and furious about reports of agents violently detaining US citizens and legal immigrants, progressive Democrats are calling for funding cuts and limitations on immigration enforcement agents.

Lawmakers, however, see little chance that the DHS will face a messy funding lapse that could see US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents walking the streets of Minnesota forced to temporarily work without pay.

That’s because progressive Democrats have made clear in public and private they aren’t seeking a government shutdown to achieve their goals.

And while progressives are poised to vote against new funding for the agency, enough Senate moderates are expected to vote to advance a DHS bill and avoid any filibuster attempt.

A fallback option if talks fail would be to put the agency on a stopgap spending bill that allows current levels of spending to continue, lawmakers said.

“We are not going to solve this problem, but we can constrain some of the illegality,” said Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, a lead negotiator on the DHS bill.

Democratic Demands

Murphy and fellow Democrats are seeking to require body cameras for ICE agents, forbid the use of masks on patrol and no-warrant searches, as well as barring raids on schools and houses of worship. They are also seeking constraints on the ability of DHS to pull money from accounts earmarked for other services in order to cover the cost of stepped-up immigration raids.

The Democratic demands come after the ICE shooting of US citizen activist Renee Good in Minnesota galvanized liberal opposition to the expanded immigration raids by the Trump administration. The administration has said the killing was justified by self-defense, while Democrats have said the officer overreacted.

Still, Democratic leaders are avoiding messaging around the words “defund ICE” after the slogan proved politically damaging in past election cycles. Instead they have settled on demanding no funding increases for ICE and US Border Patrol.

Any such limitations would have minimal impact, as Trump’s already-enacted tax bill included a $175 billion infusion for border and immigration enforcement.

Some progressive Democrats signaled they want the party to fight harder — and to be prepared to insist on cuts if Democrats win the House majority in the November midterm elections.

“It’s very clear that people are horrified at what’s happening in Minneapolis, and they want to see robust Democratic response,” said liberal firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. “I certainly don’t think that we should support expanded funding, and I will not vote for expanded funding.”

Leading progressive Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington said that making demands now is about laying the groundwork to cut immigration enforcement funding if Democrats take control of the House after the midterms.

“For me, it’s also about what happens when we have the gavels back, preparing the road for that moment,” she said.

DOGE Rebuffed

The bills that have advanced so far mostly reject large domestic spending cuts demanded by Trump. While the Internal Revenue Service and Environmental Protection Agency are set to see reductions, they’re far smaller than those sought by the president.

The legislation also rejects Trump’s attempts to decimate the National Science Foundation, NASA’s science budget, and circumvent an attempt to send Army Corps of Engineers funding only to Republican-controlled states. The State Department funding bill is $19 billion above Trump’s proposal.

Cole said Republicans aren’t trying to constrain Trump, noting that overall spending will be cut in 2026 compared to 2025.

Democrats say they expect the administration to try to flout the law and impound spending, however passage of the bills would also boost litigation to stop that.

For example, foreign aid is continued under the measures even if government functions are transfered from the shuttered USAID to the State Department. Entire agencies that Trump wanted shuttered like the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for Democracy are continued in the package, while funding for weather and census data are restored.

The funding of some US foreign aid marks a rebuff to Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, which attempted to end it.

Senator Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat who helped negotiate the spending bill, said there has always been a bipartisan understanding that foreign aid is a relatively cheap way to project power abroad.

“And we lost that for about six months,” he said, “but we’re putting the band back together.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Henry Thompson

Data Interpretation

Political

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Daily News

President Donald Trump is urging Republican lawmakers to fast-track a new White House healthcare plan, aiming to reshape a debate that puts his party at risk with millions of Americans facing higher insurance costs and potential coverage loss.

"I think we can make healthcare into a Republican issue because the Republicans are going to be close to unanimous on this," Trump declared during a White House roundtable on rural healthcare.

The president’s push highlights a growing urgency to address household economic concerns, particularly healthcare access and affordability, which have fueled public skepticism about his administration's economic agenda. Trump renewed his attacks on the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, arguing his replacement plan would lower consumer costs instead of enriching insurance companies.

"Obama didn't care about the rural community, to be totally blunt," Trump said. "What he did care about is insurance companies. And this was a bill to make insurance companies wealthy. And they did."

Internal GOP Divisions Pose a Major Hurdle

Despite the president's call for unity, securing widespread Republican support remains a significant challenge. The party has long been fractured over the best strategy to dismantle a law that millions of Americans depend on for their health coverage.

This internal division was on full display during the roundtable. Trump directly pressed Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska on whether his colleague, Senator Lisa Murkowski, would support the new reforms. Murkowski has previously opposed efforts to repeal the ACA.

"Will you get Lisa Murkowski to vote for it?" Trump asked.

"We'll work on it, sir," Sullivan replied.

The Soaring Cost of Coverage: A Political Powder Keg

The White House faces an immediate healthcare challenge as premiums are expected to rise for over 20 million Americans. With the ACA's open enrollment period having just ended, early data shows that sign-ups have dropped by more than a million people.

Experts warn this decline could worsen as consumers begin to pay premiums that are projected to double on average. The spike is a direct result of subsidies that lapsed at the beginning of the year after lawmakers failed to extend the tax credits.

That legislative stalemate was partially influenced by Trump himself, who had vowed to reject any bill that renewed subsidies for the ACA. Democrats have capitalized on the looming premium hikes in their messaging ahead of the November elections. The issue is especially potent because the tax credits largely benefited consumers in Republican-led states, adding pressure on GOP lawmakers fighting to maintain their majority.

Inside Trump's "Great Healthcare Plan"

In response, Trump has unveiled a proposal he calls the "Great Healthcare Plan," urging Congress to pass it without delay. While the White House describes the plan as "comprehensive," it lacks many of the details lawmakers will need to evaluate it.

The framework includes several key pillars:

• Lowering Drug Prices: It would codify voluntary agreements the president has made with pharmaceutical companies to reduce the cost of some drugs and increase the availability of over-the-counter medicines.

• Targeting Middlemen: The plan vows to "end the kickbacks" paid to large brokerage middlemen that it claims deceptively increase health insurance costs.

• Direct Subsidies: It proposes sending billions in subsidies directly to consumers to purchase health insurance, rather than to the insurance companies. Health experts note this proposal could be difficult to implement and does not guarantee better health outcomes.

Broader Context: Medicaid Cuts and Rural Health

The administration's renewed focus on healthcare is also fueled by the consequences of its signature tax-and-spending package from the previous year. That legislation included cuts to Medicaid, the public insurance program for low-income and disabled individuals.

Those reductions are projected to cause 11.8 million people in the U.S. to lose their health insurance over the next 10 years. To help soften the impact, the administration announced in December that it would award funds to states from a rural health fund.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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King Ten

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Energy

Commodity

Russia and China are negotiating the resumption of electricity exports after Beijing reportedly halted all imports on January 1, 2026. The impasse stems from a price dispute, with Russian export costs rising above China's domestic power rates.

Why China Halted Electricity Imports

According to a report from Russian business daily Kommersant, China stopped purchasing electricity from Russia at the start of the year. The reason, sources told the paper, is that Russian export prices topped domestic power prices in China for the first time.

This price inversion made the imports uneconomical for Beijing. The report suggests that electricity exports are unlikely to resume in 2026 unless the pricing structure changes.

Moscow Responds: Talks Open, But Domestic Needs First

Russia's Energy Ministry confirmed to Reuters that it is ready to restart supply if requested by Beijing and if "mutually beneficial" terms can be reached. However, the ministry stressed that its immediate priority is meeting the growing electricity demand in Russia's Far East regions.

Despite the halt, the underlying supply contract between the two nations, which is valid until 2037, has not been terminated. InterRAO, the Russian supplier, stated that neither side is seeking to end the deal. "At present, the parties are actively exploring opportunities for electricity trade," the company said.

A Familiar Pattern in Russia-China Energy Deals

This is not the first time the two partners have clashed over energy pricing. A prominent example is the planned Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, a massive project intended to ship Russian gas to China via Mongolia.

A final agreement on the pipeline has been held up by several sticking points, chief among them the price at which Russia's Gazprom would sell the gas. These instances highlight pricing as a recurring point of friction in the broader Russia-China energy relationship.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Olivia Brooks

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp dip, slipping below the $95,000 mark and hovering precariously around $94,000 — a level considered crucial for its short-term future. The recent descent in Bitcoin's price is partly attributed to remarks by former President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve's future, stirring anxiety in the crypto markets.

Who Are the Contenders for Fed Chair?

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce its new Chair soon, a selection that Trump has alluded to. With two main contenders in sight, Trump's recent meeting with Kevin Warsh seems to have tipped the scales. However, Jared Hassett's once strong candidacy appears to be waning after Trump's latest remarks.

In his statement, Trump hinted at the possibility of assigning Hassett elsewhere, indicating,

"Hassett was good on TV, and I may want to keep him as the NEC Director. We will see how the review process for Hassett's potential appointment as the Fed Chair unfolds. Fed officials do not speak much. Hassett is good at speaking."

Will Altcoins Follow Bitcoin's Descent?

The current political dynamics and looming policy shifts are poised to render the cryptocurrency landscape more volatile. The influence of political leaders, like Trump, underscores the persistent vulnerability of digital assets to external policy maneuvers.

As Bitcoin wavers, altcoins face heightened risk due to their tendency to shadow Bitcoin's movements. A further descent in Bitcoin could precipitate significant losses across various altcoins, necessitating prudent behavior from those involved in crypto trading.

In light of these challenges, market participants are urged to be vigilant and stay informed. High-impact decisions from figures like Trump can incite swift and substantial market shifts.

Key takeaways include:

●Bitcoin's critical support level rests at $94,000.

●The market's reaction is closely tied to U.S. policy announcements.

●Investor sentiment remains fragile amid potential regulatory changes.

Navigating these uncertain terrains demands a thorough understanding and strategic foresight. Crypto enthusiasts must brace for fluctuations while keeping a keen eye on policy-related developments that could redefine market landscapes.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

XRP weighs on support zone

Since the beginning of 2026, XRP has traded in a volatile environment, as investors balance evolving regulatory and institutional narratives against muted price momentum and broader macro uncertainty across digital assets.

Price action in early 2026 has been resolutely bullish with XRP rallying by over 25% to its 6 January high before it gave back some of these gains since.

A key theme shaping XRP’s outlook this year has been renewed institutional interest tied to exchange-traded product discussions. Momentum around potential spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has continued into 2026, with asset managers maintaining filings and signalling intent to broaden institutional access should regulatory conditions allow.

While these developments have not yet translated into a sustained price breakout, they have helped underpin sentiment and keep longer-term investors engaged, particularly those focused on XRP’s role within regulated financial infrastructure.

At the same time, selling behaviour from longer-term holders has remained a headwind. On-chain analysis early in the year suggested that some legacy wallets continued to distribute holdings into rallies, offsetting fresh inflows from shorter-term participants. This dynamic has contributed to XRP’s low-volatility profile in recent days, with accumulation and distribution largely cancelling each other out.

Beyond price, ecosystem and adoption developments have remained central to XRP’s investment case. Ripple has continued to expand its payments and settlement infrastructure, particularly in emerging markets, positioning XRP as a bridge asset for cross-border transfers. Ongoing integrations with payment providers and fintech platforms have reinforced the utility-driven narrative around XRP, distinguishing it from tokens that rely more heavily on speculative demand alone.

Macroeconomic conditions have also played a role. As with other cryptocurrencies, XRP has remained sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite and interest-rate expectations. Periods of risk-off sentiment have tended to cap rallies, while brief improvements in broader market confidence have led to short-lived upticks rather than sustained trends. This has kept XRP trading defensively, even as parts of the crypto market have shown renewed volatility.

Taken together, XRP’s performance since the start of 2026 highlights an asset caught between constructive long-term narratives and unresolved short-term constraints.

Institutional interest via potential ETFs, continued progress in payments adoption and regulatory clarity prospects provide a supportive backdrop. However, persistent overhead supply, cautious macro sentiment and the absence of a decisive catalyst have left price action subdued.

As the year progresses, XRP’s direction is likely to hinge on whether institutional access expands meaningfully, whether selling pressure from longer-term holders abates, and whether broader risk appetite returns across digital assets. Until then, XRP appears set to remain range-bound and reactive to news flow, reflecting a market that is watchful, patient and waiting for confirmation before committing to a stronger trend.

XRP bullish case:

As long as XRP manages to hold in the $2.0689 - $1.9569 support zone on a daily chart closing basis, another attempt at the upside may ensue.

For this to become more probable, a rise and daily chart close above this week's high at $2.1905 would need to be seen. In this case the way would be open for the early January peak at $2.4159 to be back in focus.

XRP bearish case:

While XRP remains below this week's high at $2.1905, immediate downside pressure dominates with the $2.0689 - $1.9569 support zone expected to be probed further.

If it were to give way, the November-to-December lows at $1.8193 - $1.7713 would be back in sight.

Failure there may put the April low at $1.6153 on the cards.

Short-term outlook: 

Neutral while below the 14 January high at $2.1905; a rise above this level would change the outlook to a bullish one, though.

Medium-term outlook: 

Neutral while trading below the 6 January high at $2.4159 but above its $1.8193 November low.

XRP daily candlestick chart