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The dark fleet of tankers shipping illicit oil around the world is rushing to seek the perceived protection of the Russian flag after the US started seizing vessels involved in the Venezuelan trade.

At least 26 ships have switched registration to Russia since the beginning of last month, with the bulk of those happening after the US snatched the Skipper supertanker off the coast of Venezuela on Dec. 10, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence data. That's a jump from six in November and just 14 over the previous five months.

About 13% of the almost 1,500 tankers that carry Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil are already registered to Moscow, with the rest typically operating under the flags of smaller countries, such as Panama, Guinea and Comoros. Using false flags is also a common dark-fleet tactic, enabling ships to avoid having to comply with regulations while appearing legitimate.

The recent move toward Russian registration is a calculation by vessel owners that Moscow will provide political cover when other nations won't, according to Charlie Brown, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group that tracks the dark fleet.

"This may offer a new potential solution for the illicit dark-fleet networks, but it also raises the stakes," he said. "Because it underscores that sanctions evasion is no longer just a maritime compliance problem, but a strategic challenge involving state protection and geopolitical risks."

Those risks were on display in the pursuit of the Bella 1, sanctioned by the US in 2024. The vessel initially evaded capture near Venezuela in mid-December, and then headed north, switching from fake Guyanese registration to a Russian flag and changing its name to Marinera, with the crew even painting Moscow's tricolor on its hull.

The chase raised fears of a direct conflict between Washington and Moscow. A Russian naval ship was on its way to escort the Marinera but never made it close enough before US forces boarded the supertanker south of Iceland last week, according to people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named due to its sensitivity.

The US has now seized five tankers involved in the Venezuelan oil trade and, given President Donald Trump's latest threat to slap tariffs on countries buying Iranian goods, oil traders and ship owners are watching to see if the White House will go after vessels carrying crude from the Islamic Republic.

The histories and geographical spread of the 26 tankers that have recently switched flags illustrates the growing risks. They're currently located across the world, from the Baltic Sea, to the Suez Canal and the Yellow Sea, although it's possible some are spoofing their locations.

They're all sanctioned by at least one Western government. Among their current or former owners or managers, a few names keep popping up: Eight of the vessels are linked to Glory Shipping HK Ltd., a Hong Kong-based entity. Two Russia-registered firms — New Fleet Ltd. and North Fleet Ltd. — are each listed as new owners for three of the ships, and have addresses that appear to be in the same building as a unit of Russian state-owned shipping line Sovcomflot PJSC in St. Petersburg.

Neither Glory Shipping nor the two Russian companies responded to emailed requests for comment.

A country's flag registry makes it the governing body of a vessel to enforce compliance with maritime laws, and safety and environmental standards, although some nations outsource this to commercial entities. The flag also acts like a passport that gives the ship access to friendly ports around the world.

The 26 flag-hoppers were observed based on the day they started transmitting with a new nine-digit number for telecommunications. This number, called the maritime mobile service identity, or MMSI, is issued by flag registries and can be immediately observed once a ship changes flag and starts transmitting. For Russia, the MMSI begins with 273.

"The story is really a persistent, global reflagging of dark-fleet tankers," said Mark Douglas, a maritime domain analyst at Starboard Maritime Intelligence. "It's unlikely to stop at this number."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley gave a measured response to Senator Ted Cruz for accusing the auto executive of being too terrified to testify before Congress.

"Frankly, I'm running a car company and that's my priority," Farley told reporters on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show Tuesday. "All I can say is we're a little busy here in Detroit this week," he said in reference to Cruz's comments.

Cruz earlier this month had to postpone a hearing he'd planned on auto affordability when Farley said he was unavailable because he had scheduling conflicts with the auto show opening in Detroit this week. Farley also was reluctant to appear because Tesla Inc. was sending its chief engineer, while Ford, General Motors Co. and Chrysler-parent Stellantis NV were asked to send their CEOs. GM CEO Mary Barra also expressed reluctance unless it was an all-CEO panel, which would require Tesla to send Elon Musk.

After postponing the hearing, Cruz criticized Farley in a Jan. 6 interview with Politico, in which he accused the auto executive of costing Ford shareholders $19.5 billion for charges the company is taking on under-performing electric vehicle assets. Cruz also said Ford was trying to "swindle American taxpayers" with a since-canceled plan to try to extend expiring $7,500 EV consumer tax credits by letting dealerships continue to offer them on leased vehicles.

"For whatever reason, it appears Jim Farley was terrified of testifying before Congress," Cruz told Politico.

Cruz was calling the auto chieftains to Washington to explain why average new car prices have topped $50,000 and to ask what they're doing about the auto industry's affordability crisis. A new date has not been set for the hearing.

"We had the president of the United States here today, we have the Detroit Motor Show and our Formula One launch," Farley added. "It wasn't the right time to be in Washington, D.C., when we have so much to do in Detroit."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he believes China will open its markets to American goods, reaffirming his positive relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"I think it's going to happen," Trump commented when asked about the prospect of increased market access for U.S. products. He did not provide further details on his optimistic outlook.

Persistent Friction in US-China Relations

Trump's remarks come against a backdrop of long-standing and complex tensions between Washington and Beijing. For years, the two global powers have been at odds over a wide range of critical issues, including:

• Trade tariffs and intellectual property disputes

• Differing policies on cybersecurity

• Human rights concerns

• The origins of the Covid-19 pandemic

• Divergent stances on Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Russia's war in Ukraine

New Tariff Threat Over Iran Policy

The statement on market access follows a separate threat made by Trump just one day earlier. The president announced he might impose a 25% tariff on any country that trades with Iran, a move that could directly impact Beijing, which is Tehran's largest trading partner.

China has already condemned the proposed tariff. Trump has not yet offered specific details on how the plan would be implemented.

This policy is being considered as Trump weighs his response to the current situation in Iran, which is experiencing some of its largest anti-government demonstrations in years. The geopolitical context also includes a 12-day war last year between Iran and U.S. ally Israel, as well as a U.S. military bombing of Iranian nuclear sites in June.

The Japanese yen's recent sharp decline has put markets on high alert for potential government intervention and a significant price correction, according to analysts at Eurizon SLJ Capital and Societe Generale SA.

The currency weakened to around 159 per dollar, a low not seen since July 2024, following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might call a snap election. Investors believe this move could strengthen the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's power, opening the door for more fiscal stimulus—a scenario considered negative for both the yen and Japanese government bonds.

Analysts Watch for a Market Correction

Experts warn that the risks for the dollar-yen exchange rate are now "heavily skewed to the downside" for the remainder of the year. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon, noted that "interventions at the right moment could trigger such a correction."

This view is shared by Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, who suggested that a price spike in the coming days "may finally be an opportunity to go short" the dollar-yen pair.

Market participants are closely watching the 160-per-dollar level as a potential line in the sand for intervention. However, Japanese officials have consistently stated their focus is on the speed and volatility of currency moves rather than a specific exchange rate.

While there is no official formula for what triggers action, a key official indicated in 2024 that a 10-yen move against the dollar in one month would be considered rapid. Similarly, a 4% shift in two weeks was described as inconsistent with economic fundamentals. The Ministry of Finance, with the Bank of Japan acting as its agent, last intervened in 2024 when the yen hit 160.17.

The anticipation of an official response is already affecting market behavior. "We're seeing broad demand for options across the curve as the market tries to interpret the price action ahead of a potentially volatile official response," said Ivan Stamenovic, head of Asia-Pacific G-10 currency trading at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong.

Crowded Trades and Political Factors

Prime Minister Takaichi's known support for reflationist policies has weighed on the yen since she took office in October, feeding speculation that she might discourage the Bank of Japan from a near-term interest rate hike.

However, SocGen's Juckes offered a counterpoint, arguing that Takaichi's administration "is unlikely to pursue aggressive fiscal expansion immediately" due to concerns about debt sustainability. He suggested this could support a "buy-the-dip" strategy for both the yen and Japanese government bonds.

Trader positioning data also signals a high risk of a short squeeze. In mid-2024, a sharp build-up of speculative net short positions saw the dollar-yen rate surge past 160 before reversing course. The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that short positions, while moderating slightly, remain elevated.

Further reinforcing this view, Citigroup Inc.'s yen pain gauge, which measures overall trader positioning, is still negative. This indicates just how crowded the bearish yen trade has become, heightening the risk of a sharp reversal if sentiment shifts.

Donald Trump is set to take the stage at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this Wednesday, marking a high-profile return to the global financial spotlight. His address to an audience of heads of state, central bankers, and top business leaders will be closely watched as he reemerges as a central figure in U.S. politics ahead of the 2024 election.

The speech offers a platform for Trump to outline his perspectives on the global economy, American monetary policy, and financial innovation.

Key Topics: From Fed Policy to Crypto

While the full details of the speech are not public, Trump is expected to focus on several core economic issues. His agenda will likely include U.S. interest rate policy, inflation, energy independence, and international trade.

In recent statements, Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve, arguing that its interest rate policies are hindering U.S. economic growth. Observers anticipate he will continue this line of commentary, advocating for lower rates.

Additionally, Trump may address the role of cryptocurrency in the global financial system. As digital assets become more mainstream, his position on crypto policy has evolved, moving closer to narratives that favor innovation and oppose centralized control.

A Global Platform for the 2024 Election

Trump's appearance in Davos is as much a political event as it is an economic one. At a time of rising global tensions and shifting monetary landscapes, his comments could influence both markets and international policy discussions.

More importantly, the speech signals an intent to reassert American leadership on the world stage. It provides a unique opportunity for Trump to set the tone for his economic platform, effectively using the global forum to launch key themes for his upcoming presidential campaign.

El Helicoide detention centre as Venezuela's government begins releasing some detainees, with the freeing of political prisoners marking a move long demanded by human rights groups, international bodies and opposition leaders, in Caracas, Venezuela, January 12, 2026. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

Venezuela's top lawmaker Jorge Rodriguez said on Tuesday that over 400 people had been freed from prison as part of an ongoing release process, although rights groups say they estimate a much lower figure of between 60 and 70 have been freed in recent days.

Rodriguez, the president of the National Assembly, and U.S. President Donald Trump both said last week that large numbers of prisoners would be released as a peace gesture after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

The release of people considered political prisoners by the opposition has been one of their long-standing demands. The Venezuelan government has always denied it holds people for political reasons and has said it has already released most of the 2,000 people detained after protests over the contested 2024 election.

"The decision to release some prisoners, not political prisoners, but some politicians who had broken the law and violated the Constitution, people who called for invasion, was granted," Rodriguez said during a parliamentary session on Tuesday, adding that this was intended to promote "peaceful coexistence."

Over 400 had been released, he said, without giving a specific timeline.

Local NGOs have said that the number of prisoners freed since Thursday ranges between 60 and 70, and have denounced a slow pace and lack of information surrounding the releases.

On Monday, Venezuela's penitentiary authority had said that 116 people had been freed.

Foro Penal, a leading local NGO that works on legal support for detainees, said at least 800 political prisoners were behind bars at the beginning of this year.

Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, who is expected to meet with Trump on Thursday, has been one of the leading voices demanding the release of prisoners, some of whom are her close allies.

Families and rights groups have denounced what they say is abusive treatment of detainees, including the denial of medical care, the use of solitary confinement, a lack of access to legal counsel and even torture.

Source: Reuters