China Halts Russian Electricity Imports Over High Prices

The South African rand is experiencing its most sustained period of gains against the U.S. dollar in more than two decades, driven by a powerful combination of high commodity prices and a strengthening economic outlook.

The currency is poised for its eighth consecutive weekly advance, a winning streak not seen since December 2002. Over this period, the rand has strengthened by 6.1%, according to Bloomberg data.

Precious Metals and Policy Fuel the Rally

While record-high prices for gold and silver have provided a significant cyclical boost, analysts point to deeper structural changes as the primary drivers of the currency's sharp appreciation.

"Possibly, the main cyclical factor is the commodity tailwind," said Burak Baskurt, chief emerging markets strategist at BNP Paribas. "But structural factors mostly explain the sharp appreciation."

These underlying strengths include recent economic reforms and the central bank's disciplined monetary policy. Last year, policymakers adopted a lower inflation target, which has reinforced investor confidence that the country will maintain its favorable interest-rate differential with the United States.

High Interest Rates Offer Attractive Returns

With South Africa's policy rate at 6.75% and annual inflation forecast to be around 3.6%, the country offers a real interest rate of over 3%—an attractive real return for investors. Upcoming economic data is expected to confirm that inflation has likely peaked.

This positive outlook is shared by market strategists. "We see further gains for the rand and expect rates and bonds to rally further due to low inflation," wrote Societe Generale strategists, including Phoenix Kalen and Marek Drimal, in a recent note.

The optimism has spilled over from the currency markets. South Africa's benchmark equity index climbed over 2% this week, reaching a record high on the back of a rally in mining shares.

Brazil's economy expanded much faster than expected in November, posting its strongest growth in months and complicating the central bank's path toward lowering interest rates. The robust performance adds new pressure on policymakers who are trying to balance growth with inflation control.

Economic Activity Outpaces All Forecasts

Data released on Friday showed the central bank's economic activity index, a leading indicator for gross domestic product (GDP), rose by 0.68% from the previous month. This figure easily surpassed the 0.4% median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of analysts and marked the largest monthly increase since March.

Compared to the same month a year earlier, the index was up 1.25%, confirming a solid underlying momentum in the economy.

Central Bank's Dilemma on High Interest Rates

The stronger-than-expected data creates a challenge for monetary policy. Economists and traders have been watching for signs that the central bank has room to start cutting its benchmark Selic rate, which has been held at 15%—a level not seen in nearly two decades.

While inflation has been moving closer to the official target, policymakers have so far refused to signal when they might begin an easing cycle. This latest report gives them another reason to remain cautious.

Inflationary Pressures Persist

The central bank's cautious stance is reinforced by several factors that could keep inflation elevated. A hot jobs market continues to support demand, while analysts expect President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to ramp up public spending this year.

This anticipated fiscal stimulus, viewed as a strategy to secure support for a potential fourth term, is already pressuring forecasts for consumer price growth and making the case for near-term rate cuts more difficult.

India and the European Union are finalizing a long-negotiated free-trade agreement that will selectively open India's market to some EU agricultural goods while strictly excluding items that could threaten the livelihoods of domestic farmers.

A senior official in New Delhi confirmed the development on Friday, emphasizing that products posing a competitive disadvantage to Indian farmers will not be part of the deal. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity as the discussions are still in progress and did not specify which products would be included.

Why India Is Cautious on Farm Imports

India's careful approach to agricultural trade is deeply rooted in domestic politics. Farmers represent a massive and influential voting bloc in the nation, where millions of smallholders cultivate less than two hectares (five acres) of land. This makes them particularly vulnerable to competition from international markets.

Protecting this demographic has long been a "red line" for New Delhi in trade talks, a policy that remains firm even as the government pursues agreements with more urgency.

Responding to Global Trade Pressures

The push for greater access to India’s agricultural sector is not new. Major economies, including the United States, have consistently pressed India to lower its barriers. New Delhi’s motivation to secure new trade partnerships has grown since Washington imposed 50% tariffs on certain Indian goods.

However, the government's protective stance on agriculture remains consistent. Last month, after securing a trade pact with New Zealand, India's trade minister highlighted that the agreement successfully "protected" the interests of the country's farmers.

What's Next for the India-EU Agreement?

Both India and the EU are keen to finalize a deal soon, but sticking points persist in other sensitive areas, including automobiles and steel.

Momentum for the agreement is building, with expectations high for a potential announcement later this month. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Luís Santos da Costa are scheduled to visit India, a move that could signal the final stages of the negotiation process.

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he signs executive orders and proclamations in the Oval Office at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo

Describing President Donald Trump as an "authoritarian," a federal judge said on Thursday he will issue an order aimed at protecting academics who challenged the arrest and deportation of non-citizen, pro-Palestinian activists on college campuses.

At a hearing in Boston, U.S. District Judge William Young outlined an order he will issue in a week that seeks to prevent the administration from changing the immigration status of any academics in the case who are themselves non-citizens.

Any such change by the administration would be presumed to "be in retribution for their participation in this lawsuit," the judge said. Young said he would then require the government to prove in court it was seeking to deport them for "appropriate" reasons.

In a September ruling, opens new tab that sharply criticized Trump's actions, the judge concluded the departments of State and Homeland Security violated the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment by chilling the free speech of non-citizen academics at universities nationally.

"The big problem in this case is that the cabinet secretaries, and ostensibly, the president of the United States, are not honoring the First Amendment," Young said.

Young, who was appointed by Republican President Ronald Reagan, called the administration's abridgment of First Amendment rights "appalling," and said top officials under Trump had adopted "a fearful approach to freedom."

"We cast around the word 'authoritarian,'" Young said. "I don't, in this context, treat that in a pejorative sense, and I use it carefully, but it's fairly clear that this president believes, as an authoritarian, that when he speaks, everyone, everyone in Article II is going to toe the line absolutely."

Article II is the part of the Constitution governing the executive branch.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly in a statement called it "bizarre that this judge is broadcasting his intent to engage in left-wing activism against the democratically-elected president of the United States." The administration previously said it would appeal Young's September decision.

The judge said he would limit the reach of his order to members of academic associations including the American Association of University Professors and the Middle East Studies Association that challenged the administration's actions.

Those groups had sought an order blocking the administration's practices nationally, but Young said that was "overbroad."

The lawsuit was filed last year after immigration authorities in March arrested recent Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil, the first target of Trump's effort to deport non-citizen students with pro-Palestinian or anti-Israel views.

The Homeland Security Department, in announcing Khalil's arrest, cited executive orders Trump signed in January 2025 directing federal agencies to "vigorously" combat antisemitism after college campus protests over Israel's war in Gaza.

Since then, the administration has canceled the visas of other students and scholars and arrested several, including Rumeysa Ozturk, a Tufts University student who was taken into custody in Massachusetts after co-writing an opinion piece criticizing her school's response to the Gaza war.

Both have since been released from immigration custody at the direction of federal judges hearing challenges to their detention. A federal appeals court on Thursday overturned the ruling in Khalil's case, opening the door to his eventual re-detention. He plans to appeal.

Source: Reuters

A new forecast from Bank of America projects the U.S. economy will see robust growth in 2026, driven by a powerful combination of fiscal stimulus, Federal Reserve policy, and a potentially more growth-friendly trade environment.

BofA analysts now expect the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by an average of 2.8% this year, significantly higher than the consensus outlook of 2.1%. This optimistic view is based on an updated analysis of key economic drivers expected to shape the year.

While the forecast anticipates a stronger first half of the year, growth projections for the second half have been lowered compared to BofA's previous estimates.

Fiscal Stimulus Fuels First-Half Momentum

A major pillar of the upgraded forecast is the expected consumer stimulus from President Donald Trump's signature budget legislation, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," passed last July. The bill is estimated to add as much as 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth this year through consumer spending and capital expenditure incentives.

Key provisions driving this tailwind include an increased cap on state and local tax deductions and an additional standard tax deduction for older Americans.

Furthermore, the conclusion of a prolonged government shutdown is expected to provide a one-time boost to economic activity, particularly in the first quarter.

The Lagged Effect of Fed Rate Cuts

Economic activity in 2026 is also set to benefit from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions from the previous year. Analysts argue that the 75 basis points in interest rate cuts enacted last year will begin to buoy the economy.

Those reductions, which brought the Fed's target rate range down to 3.50% to 3.75%, were implemented to support a slowing labor market even as inflation remained elevated. The full impact of these cuts is now expected to filter through the economy.

A Positive Outlook on Trade Policy

BofA suggests that President Trump's aggressive trade policies could become more supportive of economic growth this year, regardless of an upcoming landmark Supreme Court decision on the legality of his tariffs. The analysts outline two distinct but positive scenarios:

• If the tariffs are struck down: This would act as an implicit fiscal easing, as the government would issue refund payments and the effective tax rate would likely decline.

• If the tariffs are upheld: Trade uncertainty would likely dissipate significantly. The administration would be expected to prioritize securing trade deals over announcing new tariffs ahead of the November midterm elections.

AI Investment Provides a Solid Foundation

Beyond specific policy actions, the ongoing strength in artificial intelligence-related investment is expected to provide a stable backbone for the economy. This trend, which observers noted as a key support for the wider economy throughout 2025, should "continue to grow at a solid pace," according to the analysts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a press conference in Moscow on December 19, 2025.

Russia has described the Trump administration's threats to take over Greenland as an "extraordinary" development that challenges global norms, confirming it will continue to monitor the situation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the matter Friday, stating, "The situation is unusual, I would even say extraordinary from the standpoint of international law," according to the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti.

US Cites National Security Concerns

The remarks follow statements from U.S. President Donald Trump about acquiring Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory. Trump's interest in the island emerged after a military operation on January 3 to depose Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

According to the U.S. administration, gaining control of Greenland is a matter of national security. Washington claims it is the only power capable of countering an alleged threat posed to the island by Russia and China.

Peskov directly referenced the U.S. president's approach to global rules, noting that Trump "has said that international law is not a priority for him." He added, "The situation is developing along a different trajectory, and we, along with the rest of the world, will be watching to see which one."

Broader Criticism from Moscow

This is not the first time Russia has pushed back on the U.S. narrative. Earlier in the week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called it unacceptable to frame Moscow and Beijing as threats to Greenland, accusing the West of applying double standards.

A spokesperson for the Kremlin was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.