November 30th Financial News

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Summary:

Bank of Canada posts loss; U.S. consumer confidence index falls to four-month low; it's confusing whether OPEC+ will cut output or not...

[Quick Facts]

1. NATO pledges more aid to Ukraine.

2. Bank of Canada posts first loss in its 87-year history.

3. European Central Bank warns of losses.

4. It's confusing whether OPEC+ will cut output or not.

5. U.S. consumer confidence index falls to a four-month low.

6. Brent crude will soar again to $110 a barrel next year.

7. Bank of England sells £346.4 million of government bonds.

[News Details]

NATO pledges more aid to Ukraine

NATO allies on Tuesday pledged to provide Kyiv with more weapons and equipment to help Ukraine restore electricity and heating disrupted by Russian missile and drone strikes. Meanwhile, air-raid sirens were sounded across Ukraine for the first time this week. Despite the subsequent lifting of air-raid sirens, Ukrainian people had been fleeing from the streets to bomb shelters.

Bank of Canada posts first loss in its 87-year history

The Bank of Canada (BoC) on Nov. 29 local time reported a loss of C$522 million in the third quarter for the first time in the Bank's 87-year history. It is reported that the BoC has been unable to make a profit in recent months as it rushed to raise interest rates to fight inflation, resulting in a mismatch between assets and liabilities on its expanded balance sheet. The BoC expects to lose C$5 billion to C$6 billion in the future and profit again in 2024 or 2025.

European Central Bank warns of losses

The European Central Bank (ECB) warned Tuesday that it might make a loss as high inflation forces it to raise interest rates and foot the bill of a decade of aggressive money printing. The ECB, which has created about 5 trillion euros in deposits through massive bond purchases and cheap loans over the past 10 years, must pay huge amounts of interest to commercial banks after raising interest rates to curb runaway prices. These stimulus tools were used in years when inflation was too low and are now likely to push the ECB and other central banks, such as the central banks of Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium, into the red.

It's confusing whether OPEC+ will cut output or not

OPEC+ is considering holding its regular Dec. 4 meeting online. Several participants have already indicated that OPEC+ may consider further production cuts at its Dec. 4 meeting. The Saudi Arabian energy minister already sent a very clear signal to the market last week that it was ready to further reduce supply if necessary. But several other OPEC+ sources and the Iraqi side said that OPEC+ would extend the production cut deal reached in October. Of the 17 traders and analysts surveyed, 10 expect new OPEC+ production cuts of 250,000 to 2 million bpd. Advisory firm FGE forecasts the cut could be at the top of that range.

U.S. consumer confidence index falls to a four-month low

U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a four-month low in November, with households less enthusiastic about buying big-ticket items over the next six months amid high inflation and rising borrowing costs, heightening the risk of a recession next year.

However, consumers remain optimistic about the labor market, which could limit the downturn. Despite the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, the labor market is still showing resilience, helping keep consumer spending and the overall economy stable.

The trend of waning confidence portends a recession, which is likely to occur in the coming year. However, any potential recession could be short and shallow given the tight labor market and the hint that layoffs may not be as bad as feared.

Brent crude will soar again to $110 a barrel next year

UBS said the pandemic prevention and control measures appeared to remain negative for crude oil in the near term, adding to market concerns about lower demand due to a global economic slowdown. But the downward pressure on oil from a weaker global economy should be offset by reduced global supply. We remain optimistic about the outlook and expect Brent crude prices to remain around $110 per barrel over the next year. OPEC+ will meet on Dec. 4 and will consider measures to counter the recent drop in oil prices. The EU's import ban on Russian crude will take effect on Dec. 5, which should support oil prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. and other OPEC governments will also stop selling strategic oil reserves.

Bank of England sells £346.4 million of government bonds

The Bank of England (BoE) sold 346.4 million pounds of long-dated and index-linked gilts. This is the first time the BoE sold bonds held as a result of emergency purchases. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that the UK government bond market had not returned to normal and there was no reason to believe that the BoE would not achieve its goal of reducing its holdings of 80 billion pounds of government bonds in one year. J.P. Morgan forecasts that UK GDP will fall 0.6% in fiscal 2023, while GDP will rise 4.3% in fiscal 2022. It expects the BoE to raise interest rates to 4.25% in the first quarter of 2023.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:30 Peel, chief economist of the Bank of England, delivers a speech

UTC+8 17:00 European Central Bank Governing Council member Makhlouf delivers a speech

UTC+8 18:00 Eurozone HICP (Nov)

UTC+8 21:15 U.S. ADP Employment (Nov)

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. Annual Real GDP Revised QoQ (SA) (Q3)

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. Wholesale Inventory MoM (SA) (Oct)

UTC+8 23:00 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (SA) (Oct)

UTC+8 23:30 U.S. EIA Weekly Gasoline Stock Changes

UTC+8 01:35 Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks

UTC+8 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a speech

UTC+8 03:00 The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on the state of the economy

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