Market Outlook for This Week - Commodities

Commodity

Summary:

With the Fed Rate Decision and the US CPI "Super Week" approaching, the gold price is expected to reach new highs; while the crude oil market is weighed down by demand fears of economic recession and is prone to fall but not rise in the short term.

XAUUSD

Last week's data showed that U.S. November producer price gains and non-manufacturing PMs both exceeded expectations, indicating a slowdown in inflation. Yet its economy remains bright. The market is generally expecting the Fed to slow rate hikes to 50 basis points at its last meeting in 2022 on December 13th-14th. But given that core inflation remains high and labor market conditions remain strong, the terminal rate is still likely to be higher, limiting the gains in the gold price.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) that will come out on December 13th. Despite the PPI report showing that the underlying trend of inflation is moderating, it has heightened concerns among market participants. Meanwhile, consumer inflation data out this week could also come in higher than expected. And this data will be released before the Fed announces its December Interest Rate Decision, which may cause concern for gold bulls in the short term.

This week will witness the three major Interest Rate Decisions of the Fed, the BoE, and the ECB, which are all expected by the market to raise rates by 50 basis points and will release signals of further slowing down the pace of rate hikes. In general, factors such as central banks slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about economic recession are still supporting the gold price in the medium to long term. In the short term, after the arrival of December, it is now close to the end of the year holidays, and the peak period of physical gold demand has arrived; this is the time for seasonal buying of gold, which undoubtedly gives the gold price a new upward momentum.

In addition, the U.S. retail sales data for November and PMI data for December in Europe and the U.S. will be released this week, which can be described as a "super week". It is recommended that investors must "fasten" their seat belts and make position adjustments in advance.

Market Outlook for This Week - Commodities_1

Looking at the technical graph, the gold price maintains the oscillating and consolidating trend last week. After the August high strong resistance of 1807.7 was "falsely" broken, the gold price fell quickly and then regained above 1790 again. There will still be a see-saw situation before the release of the US November CPI and the Fed Decision. On the downside, support near 1770 and 1780 needs to be focused on; once resistance near 1807 is broken, the gold price will likely move further toward the price range of $1840-1870.

WTI

Last week, after the release of weak economic data in Europe and the U.S., growing concerns about economic recession completely overshadowed any impact on tight supply. Crude oil fell about 10% in the weekly chart, marking its biggest weekly decline since April of this year.

From the supply side, the EU embargo on Russian oil and the Russian oil export price cap agreement came into effect, and OPEC+'s continuation of the October production cut plan has not affected crude oil market supply for now. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories are falling while inventories of refined products are accumulating, raising demand concerns and being bearish for oil prices.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he may cut production in response to the price caps imposed the crude exports. He also announced a 35% tariff on some imports from "unfriendly countries". This countermeasure could exacerbate the escalating geopolitical situation and tight supply in the crude oil market, which could be favorable to oil prices, but the impact is yet to be seen.

On the demand side, although the shift in China's epidemic prevention and control policies is expected to boost oil demand expectations, nearly all major economies are slowing down, leaving the crude oil demand outlook under a strong impact. The unexpected pickup in U.S. service sector activity and rebound in employment in November suggests that the U.S. economy remains strong, but this will also prompt the Fed to raise interest rates further, which increases the likelihood of a U.S. recession and exacerbates demand concerns, aggravating crude oil prices.

This Friday, the initial composite purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, and the Eurozone, to be released by S&P Global, are expected to show some modest improvement, but their economic activities are expected to shrink again, which may further depress oil prices. In addition, as the crude oil market will see two major monthly reports, it is important to keep an eye on OPEC and IEA's supply and demand outlook expectations for the crude oil market, which is expected to cause greater volatility in oil prices.

Market Outlook for This Week - Commodities_2

On the technical graph, the WTI plunged in the weekly chart. The downside has further opened up after the WTI fell below 76.0 and is now close to the 70 mark; the bears are still very strong, and the price may continue to fall "inertially" in the short term. However, the short-term decline is too large, the indicator RSI has entered a seriously oversold area, and there is a need for a rebound adjustment. In the upside direction, 76.0 has been converted from the previous support to pressure, with no momentum for a breakout in the short term; in the downside direction, attention needs to be paid to the psychological support at the 70.0 integer mark and the location of the Russian oil limit at 60.

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Thomas

Central Bank

Economic

The key focusses this week is the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Thursday and the November inflation rate of the world's largest economy.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) at its final meeting for the year, marking a shift from the 75bps hikes at each of its last four meetings.

"We are more confident about a downshift in rate hike magnitude to 50bps, but less certain of the terminal rate. The focus will be on FOMC chair Jerome Powell's and the dot plot's guidance on the new indicative range for the terminal rate," UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said in an outlook report last Friday. The terminal rate is the level at which the Fed is expected to stop raising rates.

Apart from the Fed, there will be interest in the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), both on Thursday night (Malaysian time). The Philippines' central bank also has one on the same day. A Bloomberg poll sees each of them raising interest rates by 50bps.

"We keep our view of a 50bps hike in December, but we think the BoE still has a little way to go, given that the Treasury decided to delay much of its fiscal consolidation, which means fiscal policy will do little to fight inflation. [As for the ECB], we believe [it] is mindful of overtightening risks. We expect the ECB to hike by 50bps at this meeting, followed by 25bps in February before pausing," UOB opined.

Meanwhile, China's central bank is seen keeping the one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.75% on Thursday.

Investors will be keeping a close watch on the U.S.' November inflation — as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), out on Dec 13 — to get a sense of how much the Fed's aggressive rate hikes this year have helped cool red-hot inflation. The U.S. central bank has increased rates six times this year for a total of 375bps, lifting the target range of the Fed funds rate to between 3.75% and 4% last month, its highest since January 2008.

Although the U.S.' annual inflation rate slowed to 7.7% in October from 8.2% in September, it remains high. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, grew at an annual rate of 6.3% in October compared with 6.6% the previous month.

At home, there will likely continue to be some buzz around Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's line-up of 27 deputy ministers, which he announced last Friday. Among others, he named Ahmad Maslan and Steven Sim as deputy finance ministers, Liew Chin Tong as deputy international trade and industry minister and Ramkarpal Singh as deputy law minister.

On Monday, the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) will release the October industrial production data as well as manufacturing statistics. Monday is a public holiday in Selangor to mark the birthday of Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah, which fell on the day before.

Over at the Kuala Lumpur High Court, there is the continuation of former premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak's 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore trial from Monday to Thursday, with former AmBank relationship manager Joanna Yu still taking the stand. Najib is on trial on four counts of abuse of power and 21 counts of money laundering involving RM2.28 billion of 1MDB funds.

In China, among the macroeconomic data released this week are November new home prices, industrial production, retail sales, surveyed jobless rate and property investment — all on Thursday.

On the same day in the U.S., there will be advanced retail sales, industrial production, business inventories and initial jobless claims data.

There will be preliminary releases for December private sector Purchasing Managers' Index surveys in the U.S., the eurozone, the UK and Japan this week, which will provide closing snapshots of business conditions for this year.

New Zealand will announce its third-quarter (3Q) gross domestic product numbers on Thursday. In 2Q, the country managed to avoid a technical recession after growing by a more-than-expected 1.7% from the previous quarter, following a 0.2% decline in 1Q, helped by the easing of its

Covid-19 measures.

In Singapore, the Ministry of Manpower will release its final labour market report for 3Q on Wednesday. UOB estimates that the overall unemployment rate is likely to stay at 2%, while the resident unemployment rate is seen staying pat at 2.9%.

There is November trade data coming out of Indonesia (Dec 13) and Japan (Dec 15), while the Philippines will release its October numbers on Dec 13. Meanwhile, markets in Thailand will be closed on Monday for the Constitution Day holiday.

Source: The Edge Markets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Devin

Economic

Turkey Sees Lower than Expected External Deficit in October_1

The October data showed that the 12M rolling deficit has continued to widen, hitting US$-43.5bn (translating into c. 5.1% of GDP) compared to US$-39.0bn a month ago. The data showed no strong signs of pressure easing in the external accounts, and the key drivers of the monthly reading remained the same as a year ago: i) a lower surplus in core trade (excluding gold and energy) (US$2.5bn vs US$4.5bn last year) ii) a higher energy bill (US$-6.0bn vs US$-4.6bn last year) and iii) a rapid increase in net gold trade (US$-3.0bn vs on balance last year). Services income, on the other hand, has remained strong with a more than 35% year-on-year increase, limiting the deterioration in the current account.

Turkey Sees Lower than Expected External Deficit in October_2

The capital account in October was positive at US$4.8bn after outflows a month ago, driven by asset disposals of locals abroad. With the current account deficit and continuing strength in net errors & omissions at US$0.7bn (US$21.0bn on a year-to-date basis, still very high despite the latest revisions), official reserves recorded a marked US$5.1bn increase.

In the breakdown of monthly flows, residents' assets abroad recorded a US$2.3bn fall, driven mainly by a decline in their external deposits and trade credits. For non-residents, we saw US$2.4bn of inflows: i) regarding non-debt creating flows of foreign investors, gross FDI (US$0.8bn) more than matched the sell-off in the equity market (US$0.4bn) ii) for debt creating items, we observed US$2.0bn of inflows driven by the Treasury's Eurobond issuance (despite maturing Eurobonds of banks) and non-residents' higher deposits at local banks. Net borrowing was barely negative amid the banking sector's long-term debt repayments. Accordingly, we saw a strong long-term debt rollover rate for corporates at 96% (195% on a 12M rolling basis), while the same ratio for banks stood at 52% (89% on a 12M rolling basis).

Turkey Sees Lower than Expected External Deficit in October_3

The current account deficit has been on a rapid expansionary path since early this year driven by commodity imports, a particularly high energy bill and growing gold imports. We expect the current account to remain under pressure in the near term given the marked deterioration in the terms of trade, an accommodative policy stance, and that Turkey's major trading partner, the eurozone, faces significant growth pressure. On the capital account, net errors and omissions, which are not a stable source of funding, have been the major financing item, leading to an increase in official reserves on a year-to-date basis. Another boost to reserves in the near term is likely if Turkey and Saudi Arabia finalise the US$5bn deposit deal.

Source: ING

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Owen Li

Forex

Stocks

Bond

Global stocks fell on Monday as investors braced for the last round of transatlantic interest rate hikes this year from a trio of central banks, hoping that a hitherto hefty pace of increases in borrowing costs will finally show signs of easing.

Oil prices rose as a key pipeline supplying the United States remained shut, while Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut production in retaliation for a Western price cap on its exports.

The dollar rose against the Japanese yen but eased against a basket of currencies after data on Friday showed U.S. producer prices had risen more than expected last month, pointing to persistent inflationary pressures, ahead of key U.S. consumer price index for November on Tuesday, when a slowdown in core annual inflation is anticipated.

"A heavy event risk calendar this week stands to define the core themes for 2023," ING bank said.

Market consensus was still "underappreciating" the risk of inflation staying higher longer, and "dangerously second-guessing" the Fed in terms of rate cuts in the second half of next year, ING said.

The MSCI all country stock index was down 0.3%, the benchmark having lost about 18% so far this year, wiping out all gains chalked up in 2021.

In Europe, the STOXX index of 600 companies was down 0.7%.

Economists expect the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday to all raise rates by 50 basis points, still a slowing down from the 75 basis point hikes seen in recent meetings.

Patrick Spencer, vice chair of equities at Baird investment bank, said central banks will start taking a less aggressive stance this week, though Tuesday's CPI data will be critical.

"It's the last important week of the year, after this week you've got no real sort of catalysts. If the CPI is a muted number, we're off to the races and we'll get our year-end rally," Spencer said.

But irrespective of the CPI, deflationary pressures are increasing, with crude oil prices down for the year, and iron ore, lumber and house prices also down, Spencer said.

"All this talk of recession, I think it is certainly in the price, it's in the markets. The key about recession is generally employment, and I think employment is going to be stronger than people give it credit, " Spencer said.

Both the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were little changed.

Asian Shares Fall

In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slumped 1.2%, erasing almost all of the previous week's gains stemming from optimism that China is finally opening up its economy with the dismantling of its zero-COVID policy.

Japan's Nikkei eased 0.2%.

Chinese bluechips dropped 1.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 2.2%, as investors' focus shifted away from crippling COVID-19 curbs to the surge in infections that is now disrupting the economy.

While the Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday at its last meeting of 2022, though focus will also be on the central bank's updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

"We also want to understand if Jay Powell opens the door to a slowdown to a 25bp hiking pace from February - again, while in line with market pricing, this could be taken that we're closer to the end of the hiking cycle and is a modest USD negative," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest, said any surprise in the November CPI report was unlikely to shift the Fed from a 50-basis-point rate hike, although it would play a bigger role in the policy statement and the tone of Powell's press conference.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar eased 0.143% to 104.89, although it was not too far away from the five-month trough of 104.1 a week ago.

Sterling was flat at $1.2259, while the Australian dollar also slipped 0.3% to $0.6745.

Treasury yields held largely steady on Monday. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes eased to 3.5433%, compared with its U.S. close of 3.5670%. The two-year yield touched 4.3294%, down slightly from its U.S. close of 4.330%.

Brent crude futures were off 0.4% at $75.77 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.84 a barrel, off 0.3%.

Spot gold was 0.4% lower at $1,790 per ounce.

Source: Reuters

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Thomas

Commodity

Energy – oil prices supported

ICE Brent prices have been consolidating at around current levels of US$77/bbl as the market awaits demand/supply estimates to be released later in the week by the IEA (International Energy Agency) and OPEC. The supply disruptions in the US due to the Keystone pipeline closure continue to be supportive for NYMEX WTI with Brent-WTI spread trading at around a six-month low of around US$4.7/bbl currently compared to the spread of around US$8/bbl a month ago. The latest market report suggests that TC Energy Corp. is progressing with its recovery efforts to resume operations at its shuttered Keystone pipeline, however, the company has still not given any timeline for the pipeline restart. Meanwhile, the latest comments from Russian President Vladamir Putin indicated the possibility of an oil supply cut in response to the oil price cap imposed by the G7 last week; Russia has already made it clear that it will not sell oil to the countries participating in the price cap.

The latest positioning data from CFTC shows that speculators increased their net long position in NYMEX WTI by 5,688 lots (after three consecutive weeks of decline) over the last week, leaving them with net longs of 171,277 lots as of 6 December 2022. Meanwhile, money managers trimmed their net longs in ICE Brent by 4,186 lots over the last week for a fourth consecutive week, leaving them with a net long position of 95,025 lots (least bullish in more than two years) as of last Tuesday.

Henry Hub was trading with gains of more than 10% today, following the threats of a pacific storm, which could push up the demand for natural gas for heating requirements in the Northern and Western US. The latest six-to-ten-day outlook reports from the US Climate Prediction Centre predict a colder temperature across much of the US with below-average temperatures likely to be in the Northern, Western and Central parts of the US along with heavy snowfall. According to the latest EIA data, US natural gas inventory is around 58bcf lower than the five-year average at this point in the season and a stronger demand could tighten the market further in the short term.

As for the calendar this week, EIA will release its monthly drilling productivity report later today, followed by OPEC's monthly oil market report on Tuesday and IEA's monthly report on Wednesday. EIA will have its usual weekly petroleum report also on Wednesday. China will be releasing its monthly oil and refining statistics on Thursday which will be looked at closely for any hints of the oil demand in the country.

Metals – supply concerns for copper

The ongoing political uncertainty in Peru has increased some supply-side risks for metals (copper and zinc specifically), with the South American country a major supplier. As per the latest market reports, protestors in Peru have threatened to stop work at Glencore's Antapaccay and MMG's Las Bambas copper mines in protest against the country's new president and to demand a new general election. Any escalation to the protests could make it challenging to mine and transport the metals from the country and create short-term supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, Anglo American Plc has trimmed its copper mines output guidance to 840kt-930kt in 2023 due to declining ore grades at its Chilean mines, when compared to its previous estimates of 910kt-1.02mt. For the current year, the miner expects the copper production to average between 650kt-660kt, compared to its previous estimates of 640kt-680kt.

The latest CFTC data shows that speculators increased their bullish bets in COMEX copper by 3,241 lots (after two consecutive declines) over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long position of 15,951 lots as of last Tuesday. In precious metals, speculators increased their bullish bets in COMEX gold by 9,609, to leave them with a net long of 37,618 lots as of the last reporting week.

Agriculture – WASDE report mildly positive for corn

The latest WASDE report was mildly constructive for the corn market as harvest delays from Ukraine/Russia could tighten the market in short term. For soybean and wheat, the report was a non-event as estimates were left unchanged for the US market and very marginal changes were made to the global market.

The USDA increased its estimates for US corn stocks at the end of 2022/23 to 1.26b bushels compared to earlier estimates of 1.18b bushels, largely in line with the market expectations of around 1.24b bushels. The increase in inventory can be mostly put down to softer exports which are now estimated at 2.08b bushels (the lowest in three years) compared to earlier estimates of 2.15b bushels, primarily due to higher domestic prices. Domestic production, demand and beginning stocks estimates were left unchanged at 13.9b bushels, 12.0b bushels and 1.4b bushels respectively. Globally, corn production estimates were lowered by around 6.5mt with major supply cuts coming from Ukraine (-4.5mt) and Russia (-1mt) due to harvest delays. Meanwhile, global demand estimates were also reduced by 4.8mt leaving inventory changes to be marginal. Global inventory estimates were lowered by 2.4mt to 298.4mt at the end of 2022/23; the market was expecting a number closer to around 301mt.

The USDA left its domestic soybean balance sheet completely unchanged with the domestic inventory at around 220m bushels at the end of 2022/23 with production and demand of around 4.35b bushels and 2.25b bushels respectively, and exports at around 2.05b bushels. For the global market, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased global inventory estimates marginally from 102.2mt to 102.7mt at the end of 2022/23, largely on account of higher stocks at the start of the year. It was also slightly higher when compared to the average market estimates of 102.3mt. Global soybean beginning stocks for the year increased from 94.7mt to 95.6mt. Global soybean production estimates were increased by around 0.6mt to 391.2mt on account of higher output from India and Ukraine. Global demand estimates for soybean rose marginally from 380.2mt to 380.9mt for 2022/23.

The USDA left its estimates for the US wheat balance sheet unchanged for 2022/23, ending stocks at around 571m bushels. However, the global market underwent some changes. The USDA decreased production estimates to 780.6mt (-2.1mt) with supply cuts from Argentina (-3mt) and Canada (-1.2mt) offsetting gains in Australia (+2.1mt). Similarly, the agency lowered demand estimates by 1.6mt to 789.5mt with demand downgrades seen from the EU and Ukraine. The agency lowered ending stock estimates for wheat from 267.8mt to 267.3mt at the end of 2022/23, the market was expecting a number closer to 268mt.

Source: ING

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Cohen

Economic

Britain's economy rebounded in October a little more strongly than expected from September when output was affected by a one-off public holiday to mark the funeral of Queen Elizabeth, but a recession remained on the cards, official data showed on Monday.

Gross domestic product grew by 0.5% after September's 0.6% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said.

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.4% bounce-back.

The figures are unlikely to change the view among investors and analysts that Britain's economy faces a bleak 2023. British financial markets showed no reaction to the figures.

"Despite October's growth, it would take a significant turnaround in policymaking and/or global conditions to change the downward British economic trajectory," George Lagarias, chief economist at auditing form Mazars, said.

Responding to the data, finance minister Jeremy Hunt said there was a "tough road" ahead.

"Like the rest of Europe, we are not immune from the aftershocks of COVID-19, Putin's war and high global gas prices," he said.

In the three months to October, Britain's economy shrank by 0.3%, a smaller fall than a median forecast for a 0.4% contraction in the Reuters poll but the biggest drop since early 2021 when the country was under tight coronavirus restrictions.

The Bank of England - which looks set to raise interest rates for a ninth meeting in a row on Thursday to contain the risks from an inflation rate above 11% - said last month that Britain's economy looked set for a two-year recession if interest rates rose as much as investors had been pricing.

Even without further rate hikes, the economy would shrink in five of the six quarters until the end of 2023, it said.

"Tightening monetary policy too aggressively could risk worsening the financial outlook for firms and households, and extend the looming downturn," said Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW, an accountancy trade body.

The ONS said the economy in October was 0.4% larger than before the pandemic set in.

The ONS said consumption of electricity and gas was the biggest drag on economic growth in October, which was the seventh-warmest on record, according to the Met Office.

"The estimated drop may also indicate some changes in consumer behaviour in response to recent energy price rises," the ONS said.

An increase in COVID-19 vaccinations in October added 0.1 percentage points to the monthly increase in GDP.

Source: Reuters

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King Ten

Phenomena After the Release of COVID-19

China's Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted recently. However, everyone does not seem to have become as relaxed and happy as they had hoped but displayed great nervousness instead. This is mainly because the current virus is too contagious, especially in Hebei, which was the first to be released.

As we all know, foreign countries have been lying flat for a long time. Almost everyone has tested positive or even several times. It suggests that the virus is much weaker now than in 2020, and the symptoms are indeed relatively mild, but it is still more harmful to the elderly with underlying diseases. The point is that we have no experience to handle this matter on our own. Videos of medical- overstretched have also appeared in WeChat groups recently, which may have occurred in more places. All above is totally not the virus itself, but the weakness of human nature. In the past, it was the state that kept us away from the virus, but now after opening up, the virus is getting closer to us, which can happen to each of us at any time.

Therefore, the panic began to spread instead. People who didn't want to take a nucleic acid test before are now looking for nucleic acid detection points everywhere to check if they are affected. Even some mild symptoms such as cough and headache will make us deeply doubt whether we are infected or not, and even start taking medicine like crazy! Anti-pandemic and medical materials that were previously neglected by us are now stored as treasures. Related drugs, such as the miracle drugs ‘’Lianhua Qingwen Capsules’’ and ’’Ibuprofen’’ promoted by pharmacies and the Internet, are too hard to be found. However, patients who are genuinely infected or have a common cold may not even be able to buy medicine. Therefore, it is not the virus, but humanity is scary!

Human Weaknesses Never Goes Out of Style

Trading and life are actually the same. Humanity can have a great impact on our decision-making, especially when we are in trouble. In the face of the pandemic, we will stock up on medicine and vegetables in panic! While in trading, we will chase the market! To overcome humanity, you must respect laws and science, which is back to the scope of cognition.

Take viruses as an example, in the theory of virological transmission, viruses will undergo a process from strong virulence with weak transmission to weak toxicity with the strong transmission. When Wuhan was unblocked previously, all of us may think that the good days of freedom have returned. But looking back now, it is still too early to be happy.

In survivor theory, everyone thinks they'll be the lucky ones. No one believes that the disaster that befalls others will happen to them, or take it easy until it happens, which is another phenomenon, panic. The same is true of trading, the fluke mentality will always exist when there is a small loss, considering that the price will come back. As the loss is getting greater, panic reveals, and then any decision will be irrational.

On the contrary, when we are about to truly regain our good freedom, we will get caught up in the painful experience of the past and lose the courage to believe that real change has come, which is called cognitive bias. Now that the pandemic has been released, it has begun to fall into self-doubt and panic again. And for trading, most people will make a stop-loss strategy after experiencing large losses. As the deficits gradually shrink subsequently, they miss the real trend afterwards perfectly.

No secret can be hidden in the sun, and humanity is immutable.

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