Trump: China Will Open Its Markets to US Goods

The Japanese yen's recent sharp decline has put markets on high alert for potential government intervention and a significant price correction, according to analysts at Eurizon SLJ Capital and Societe Generale SA.

The currency weakened to around 159 per dollar, a low not seen since July 2024, following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might call a snap election. Investors believe this move could strengthen the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's power, opening the door for more fiscal stimulus—a scenario considered negative for both the yen and Japanese government bonds.

Analysts Watch for a Market Correction

Experts warn that the risks for the dollar-yen exchange rate are now "heavily skewed to the downside" for the remainder of the year. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon, noted that "interventions at the right moment could trigger such a correction."

This view is shared by Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, who suggested that a price spike in the coming days "may finally be an opportunity to go short" the dollar-yen pair.

Market participants are closely watching the 160-per-dollar level as a potential line in the sand for intervention. However, Japanese officials have consistently stated their focus is on the speed and volatility of currency moves rather than a specific exchange rate.

While there is no official formula for what triggers action, a key official indicated in 2024 that a 10-yen move against the dollar in one month would be considered rapid. Similarly, a 4% shift in two weeks was described as inconsistent with economic fundamentals. The Ministry of Finance, with the Bank of Japan acting as its agent, last intervened in 2024 when the yen hit 160.17.

The anticipation of an official response is already affecting market behavior. "We're seeing broad demand for options across the curve as the market tries to interpret the price action ahead of a potentially volatile official response," said Ivan Stamenovic, head of Asia-Pacific G-10 currency trading at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong.

Crowded Trades and Political Factors

Prime Minister Takaichi's known support for reflationist policies has weighed on the yen since she took office in October, feeding speculation that she might discourage the Bank of Japan from a near-term interest rate hike.

However, SocGen's Juckes offered a counterpoint, arguing that Takaichi's administration "is unlikely to pursue aggressive fiscal expansion immediately" due to concerns about debt sustainability. He suggested this could support a "buy-the-dip" strategy for both the yen and Japanese government bonds.

Trader positioning data also signals a high risk of a short squeeze. In mid-2024, a sharp build-up of speculative net short positions saw the dollar-yen rate surge past 160 before reversing course. The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that short positions, while moderating slightly, remain elevated.

Further reinforcing this view, Citigroup Inc.'s yen pain gauge, which measures overall trader positioning, is still negative. This indicates just how crowded the bearish yen trade has become, heightening the risk of a sharp reversal if sentiment shifts.

Donald Trump is set to take the stage at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this Wednesday, marking a high-profile return to the global financial spotlight. His address to an audience of heads of state, central bankers, and top business leaders will be closely watched as he reemerges as a central figure in U.S. politics ahead of the 2024 election.

The speech offers a platform for Trump to outline his perspectives on the global economy, American monetary policy, and financial innovation.

Key Topics: From Fed Policy to Crypto

While the full details of the speech are not public, Trump is expected to focus on several core economic issues. His agenda will likely include U.S. interest rate policy, inflation, energy independence, and international trade.

In recent statements, Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve, arguing that its interest rate policies are hindering U.S. economic growth. Observers anticipate he will continue this line of commentary, advocating for lower rates.

Additionally, Trump may address the role of cryptocurrency in the global financial system. As digital assets become more mainstream, his position on crypto policy has evolved, moving closer to narratives that favor innovation and oppose centralized control.

A Global Platform for the 2024 Election

Trump's appearance in Davos is as much a political event as it is an economic one. At a time of rising global tensions and shifting monetary landscapes, his comments could influence both markets and international policy discussions.

More importantly, the speech signals an intent to reassert American leadership on the world stage. It provides a unique opportunity for Trump to set the tone for his economic platform, effectively using the global forum to launch key themes for his upcoming presidential campaign.

El Helicoide detention centre as Venezuela's government begins releasing some detainees, with the freeing of political prisoners marking a move long demanded by human rights groups, international bodies and opposition leaders, in Caracas, Venezuela, January 12, 2026. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

Venezuela's top lawmaker Jorge Rodriguez said on Tuesday that over 400 people had been freed from prison as part of an ongoing release process, although rights groups say they estimate a much lower figure of between 60 and 70 have been freed in recent days.

Rodriguez, the president of the National Assembly, and U.S. President Donald Trump both said last week that large numbers of prisoners would be released as a peace gesture after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

The release of people considered political prisoners by the opposition has been one of their long-standing demands. The Venezuelan government has always denied it holds people for political reasons and has said it has already released most of the 2,000 people detained after protests over the contested 2024 election.

"The decision to release some prisoners, not political prisoners, but some politicians who had broken the law and violated the Constitution, people who called for invasion, was granted," Rodriguez said during a parliamentary session on Tuesday, adding that this was intended to promote "peaceful coexistence."

Over 400 had been released, he said, without giving a specific timeline.

Local NGOs have said that the number of prisoners freed since Thursday ranges between 60 and 70, and have denounced a slow pace and lack of information surrounding the releases.

On Monday, Venezuela's penitentiary authority had said that 116 people had been freed.

Foro Penal, a leading local NGO that works on legal support for detainees, said at least 800 political prisoners were behind bars at the beginning of this year.

Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, who is expected to meet with Trump on Thursday, has been one of the leading voices demanding the release of prisoners, some of whom are her close allies.

Families and rights groups have denounced what they say is abusive treatment of detainees, including the denial of medical care, the use of solitary confinement, a lack of access to legal counsel and even torture.

Source: Reuters

The Department of Justice (DOJ) building in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 28, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo

• Resignations span Civil Rights Division and Minnesota U.S. Attorney's Office
• Shooting by ICE officer has sparked tension

At least a dozen federal prosecutors have indicated plans to leave the U.S. Justice Department over the Trump administration's handling of the fatal shooting of a Minnesota woman by a U.S. immigration officer and other civil rights cases, according to three people familiar with the situation.

The departures spanned the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division in Washington and the U.S. Attorney's Office in Minneapolis, the sources said.

Six federal prosecutors in Minnesota have resigned over a request from Justice Department leadership to investigate the widow of 37-year-old Renee Good, who was shot and killed in Minneapolis on January 7, according to two of the sources.

It was not clear exactly what DOJ officials wanted to investigate, but Trump administration officials have accused Good of impeding an immigration operation. The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive internal matter.

Another six senior prosecutors in the criminal section of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division also informed the department they planned to leave.

The head of the division, Harmeet Dhillon, an appointee of President Donald Trump, informed the unit last week they would not be involved in the probe of the Minnesota shooting, two sources said.

The section typically plays a leading role working with FBI agents to investigate potential civil rights violations and use-of-force by law enforcement officers. Several of the prosecutors accepted an early retirement offer from the Trump administration, some of the sources said.

The resignations are the latest sign of tumult in the Justice Department under Trump, which has fired and expelled dozens of career officials and pursued investigations of Trump's perceived political enemies.

The departures also prompted renewed concern about the federal investigation into the shooting, which has prompted protests nationwide and drawn renewed scrutiny of the Trump administration's sweeping immigration crackdown in U.S. cities.

The Minnesota probe was only one factor in the decision of the civil rights lawyers to leave the department. The prosecutors, veteran lawyers who had served across presidential administrations, had grown disillusioned with the direction of the division, whose priorities had been reshaped to align with Trump, according to the sources.

OFFICIAL RESPONSE TO RESIGNATIONS

A Justice Department official confirmed the departures from the Civil Rights Division. The lawyers who requested to participate in an early retirement program did so well before the Minnesota shooting, the official said.

The official said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is conducting an internal investigation into the shooting in parallel with the FBI.

"There is currently no basis for a criminal civil rights investigation," Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement.

Tension erupted in Minnesota last week, when a federal immigration officer shot and killed Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was observing the federal law enforcement action.

The Trump administration accused Good of attempting to ram the officer with her vehicle, a claim state officials disputed.

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, the chief state prosecutor in Minneapolis, told Reuters on Tuesday that the departures at the Justice Department are an indication that career prosecutors are "not being allowed to do their job."

"And that's because of politics, not because of what actually happened here," Moriarty said.

Source: Reuters

Japan's five-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since the bond's introduction in 2000, driven by deepening concerns over the country's fiscal policy following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is planning a snap election.

The yield climbed as much as 1.5 basis points to 1.615% on Wednesday. Rates on two-year and 10-year bonds also moved higher, reflecting broader market anxiety. Investors are now closely watching a five-year bond auction scheduled for later today, which will serve as a crucial test of market appetite amid rising fiscal and supply-side risks.

Election Speculation Rattles Markets

The market's reaction follows a Nikkei report that Prime Minister Takaichi intends to inform Liberal Democratic Party leaders of her plan to call an early election. This move is widely seen as an attempt to capitalize on her high approval ratings and strengthen the party's majority in the powerful lower house of parliament.

According to investors, a decisive election victory would pave the way for a large fiscal stimulus package later this year. This prospect is raising concerns about Japan's "fiscal premium," putting downward pressure on both the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

Fiscal Expansion and BOJ Pressure

The Takaichi government is already planning a record initial budget for the fiscal year beginning in April. The Ministry of Finance previously announced that despite the increased spending, it would reduce the issuance of super-long government bonds. However, sales of two- and five-year debt are set to increase, adding to supply pressure in the shorter end of the market.

This fiscal backdrop is complicating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy calculations. Although the central bank raised its policy rate to a three-decade high in December, the yen has continued to weaken. This slide, combined with worries over government spending, could force the BOJ to act more aggressively.

Makoto Sakurai, a former BOJ board member, stated in an interview that the central bank might raise its benchmark interest rates as early as April, citing market concerns over the government's fiscal approach.

President Donald Trump visited Detroit on Tuesday to deliver a confident message on the economy, aiming to shift the national conversation back to U.S. manufacturing and away from the rising cost of living that continues to worry American families.

In a wide-ranging speech to the Detroit Economic Club, Trump declared his economic policies a resounding success after just 11 months, claiming he had successfully rebuilt the U.S. economy.

"Growth is exploding, productivity is soaring, investment is booming, incomes are rising," he stated. "Inflation is defeated. America is respected again like never before."

Economic Reality Check: Inflation and Jobs Data

Despite the president's optimistic tone, recent economic data presents a more complicated picture. Consumer prices increased last month, largely due to higher costs for food and rent. Meanwhile, job growth has been sluggish, and affordability remains a primary concern for the electorate.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from December highlighted this disconnect, showing Trump's approval rating on cost-of-living issues at just 27%. The numbers reflect a broader challenge for the White House, which is trying to convince households that it is effectively managing their economic anxieties.

The visit also comes as some White House aides have reportedly urged the president to focus more on domestic concerns, particularly as the Republican Party prepares for a difficult midterm election battle in November.

Figure 1: President Trump speaks with auto industry personnel during his visit to Detroit, a trip intended to highlight his economic policies.

Focus on Autos: A Mismatch on Tariffs and Trade

Trump's trip to the heart of the American auto industry coincided with the Detroit Auto Show, where Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis are showcasing their latest vehicles. However, the industry backdrop is grim.

Nationwide factory employment fell by 8,000 jobs in December, a figure that contradicts the manufacturing renaissance Trump promised would result from his aggressive import taxes. On Tuesday, he repeated his assertion that tariffs were driving a boom in new auto factory construction, though there is little evidence to support this claim.

"Now we have more plants being built in our country than at any time in history," Trump said before a tour of a Ford production facility in Dearborn.

The president also expressed indifference toward renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, calling it "irrelevant."

"We don't need cars made in Canada," he said. "We don't need cars made in Mexico. We want to make them here."

This position is at odds with U.S. automakers, who have lobbied Trump to extend the free-trade pact. They argue that parts sourced from Mexico and Canada are essential for manufacturing vehicles in the United States. Auto executives, including Ford CEO Jim Farley and Executive Chairman Bill Ford who accompanied Trump on his tour, have spent the past year navigating the financial impact of the president's tariffs and trade disputes.

Figure 2: Donald Trump tours a Ford production center in Dearborn, accompanied by auto executives, as he pushes his message of a manufacturing renaissance.

Political Stakes: Midterms Loom Over Economic Messaging

The Detroit speech is part of a broader strategy to communicate Trump's economic achievements directly to voters ahead of the November midterms, especially after Democrats secured key state-level victories in 2025. Michigan itself is a crucial political battleground with an open U.S. Senate seat and several competitive House races.

While billed as an economic address, Trump's speech veered into other topics, including immigration, former President Joe Biden, transgender athletes, and Venezuela.

His visit follows a series of recent economic-focused announcements that have impacted markets but lack clear legislative support. These include:

• Pressuring credit card companies to temporarily lower interest rates.

• Announcing a ban on Wall Street purchases of single-family homes.

• Urging global oil companies to increase Venezuelan crude output to potentially lower consumer prices.

This flurry of activity signals a White House eager to reframe the economic narrative as a critical election season approaches.