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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6866.50
6866.50
6866.50
6878.28
6861.22
-3.90
-0.06%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47876.36
47876.36
47876.36
47971.51
47771.72
-78.62
-0.16%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23605.56
23605.56
23605.56
23698.93
23579.88
+27.44
+ 0.12%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
99.020
99.100
99.020
99.020
98.730
+0.070
+ 0.07%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16366
1.16375
1.16366
1.16717
1.16341
-0.00060
-0.05%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33216
1.33224
1.33216
1.33462
1.33136
-0.00096
-0.07%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4191.26
4191.69
4191.26
4218.85
4190.32
-6.65
-0.16%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.135
59.165
59.135
60.084
58.892
-0.674
-1.13%
--

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The S&P 500 Opened 4.80 Points Higher, Or 0.07%, At 6875.20; The Dow Jones Industrial Average Opened 16.52 Points Higher, Or 0.03%, At 47971.51; And The Nasdaq Composite Opened 60.09 Points Higher, Or 0.25%, At 23638.22

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Reuters Poll - Swiss National Bank Policy Rate To Be 0.00% At End-2026, Said 21 Of 25 Economists, Four Said It Would Be Cut To -0.25%

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USGS - Magnitude 7.6 Earthquake Strikes Misawa, Japan

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Reuters Poll - Swiss National Bank To Hold Policy Rate At 0.00% On December 11, Said 38 Of 40 Economists, Two Said Cut To -0.25%

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Traders Believe There Is A 20% Chance That The European Central Bank Will Raise Interest Rates Before The End Of 2026

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Toronto Stock Index .GSPTSE Rises 11.99 Points, Or 0.04 Percent, To 31323.40 At Open

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Japan Meteorological Agency: A Tsunami With A Maximum Height Of Three Meters Is Expected Following The Earthquake In Japan

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Japan Meteorological Agency: A 7.2-magnitude Earthquake Struck Off The Coast Of Northern Japan, And A Tsunami Warning Has Been Issued

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Japan Finance Minister Katayama: G7 Expected To Hold Another Meeting By The End Of This Year

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The Japan Meteorological Agency Reported That An Earthquake Occurred In The Sea Near Aomori

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Japan Finance Minister Katayama: The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting Discussed The Critical Mineral Supply Chain And Support For Ukraine

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Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Held Onlinemeeting With G7 Finance Ministers

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Fed Data - USA Effective Federal Funds Rate At 3.89 Percent On 05 December On $88 Billion In Trades Versus 3.89 Percent On $87 Billion On 04 December

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: One-China Principle Is An Important Political Foundation For China-Germany Relations, And There Is No Room For Ambiguity

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Hopes Germany To Understand, Support China's Position Regarding Japan Prime Minister's Remark On Taiwan

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Hopes Germany Will View China More Objectively And Rationally, Adhere To The Positioning Of China-Germany Partnership

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China Foreign Ministry: China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets German Counterpart

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Israeli Government Spokesperson: Netanyahu Will Meet Trump On December 29

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Stc Did Not Ask Internationally-Government To Leave Aden - Senior Stc Official To Reuters

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Members Of Internationally-Recognised Government, Opposed To Northern Houthis, Have Left Aden - Senior Stc Official To Reuters

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          Silver Rises To Highest Since 2011 As US Premiums Grow

          Damon

          Economic

          Commodity

          Summary:

          Silver jumped to its highest level since 2011, as US premiums rise and the spot London market shows signs of tightness.

          Silver jumped to its highest level since 2011, as US premiums rise and the spot London market shows signs of tightness.

          Silver rose 1.6% to $37.59 an ounce, the most since September 2011. US silver futures climbed even higher, with September contracts hitting $38.46 an ounce. Such a wide price gap is unusual, as it is typically eliminated quickly through arbitrage.

          Silver last experienced a price dislocation between its two major markets at the beginning of the year, when the prospect of US tariffs on silver imports drove US futures prices higher. The arbitrage opportunity also pushed leases up, as traders looked to secure metal for shipment to Comex-linked warehouses in New York. The rush to move silver ended abruptly once the White House confirmed that bullion would not be exempt from the levies.

          The implied annualized one-month borrowing costs for silver in London jumped to approximately 4.5% on Friday, well above the typical near-zero rate. Higher lease rates indicate a tightening market.

          Most of the silver in London is held by exchange-traded funds, meaning it is not available to lend or buy. The white metal has recently been bolstered by solid inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded funds, with holdings up by 1.1 million ounces on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

          Daniel Ghali of TD Securities has argued that the outflow of silver caused by the tariff arbitrage opportunity has left inventories of freely available silver in the market critically low.

          “Our estimates of LBMA silver’s free-float now stands at its lowest levels in recorded history,” Ghali wrote in a note Thursday. “Silver’s illusion of liquidity tells us that silver markets will only rebalance through some form of a squeeze on physical.”

          The white metal has risen 27% this year, with gains recently outpacing gold. Silver has a dual character, valued both for its uses as a financial asset and an industrial input, including for clean-energy technologies. The metal is a key ingredient in solar panels, an increasingly important source of demand. Against that backdrop, the market is headed for a fifth year in deficit, according to industry group the Silver Institute.

          Meanwhile, spot gold was 0.7% higher at $3,347.21 an ounce at 11:48 a.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.1%. Platinum fell and palladium rose more than 2%.

          Source: Yahoo Finance

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Russian Coal Sector’s Slide Into Crisis Shows Cracks In Economy

          Kevin Du

          Economic

          Commodity

          Russia’s coal industry has slipped into crisis under the weight of high borrowing costs and sanctions as slowing demand in China compounds with falling prices to expose deeper cracks in the economy.

          Only half of Russia’s coal companies remained profitable in 2024, according to the Federal Statistics Service, and the situation is continuing to deteriorate. One top miner, Mechel PJSC, said on June 30 that it may cut sales by a quarter this year and has already begun scaling back output as each newly mined ton deepens losses. Some mines in Siberia have had to halt output.

          A key issue for the industry is an inability to secure equipment after three years of technological sanctions, according to people at two leading coal-mining companies, who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public. Miners often have to resort to a form of “cannibalization” — taking equipment from several sites to assemble a single working unit at one facility that can ensure the lowest possible production costs while cutting output, they said.

          At the same time, companies face borrowing costs exceeding 20%, further weighing on profitability, while coal prices have dropped to multi-year lows due to slower demand from China.

          “The coal industry faces what you’d call a perfect storm: all problems have converged at once,” said Natalya Zubarevich, a specialist on Russia’s regions at Moscow State University.

          Although President Vladimir Putin has hailed the economy’s resilience to international sanctions, the industry’s situation highlights the cumulative impact of the penalties in certain sectors more than three years after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

          While officials have sparred in recent weeks over prospects for the economy, steelmaker Severstal PJSC has already warned that some producers of the metal may be forced to halt output amid slumping domestic demand due to a construction slowdown.

          Before 2022, the coal industry relied heavily on mining equipment from Europe, the US and Japan. Technological restrictions on Russia since the start of the war have severed access to these critical supplies.

          Initially, there was hope that Chinese suppliers could fill the gap left by the withdrawal of Western companies. The quality of Chinese equipment often falls short of industry expectations, though, and availability remains limited, according to the people familiar with the situation. In many cases, orders must be placed years in advance, they said.

          Coal mining is also particularly capital-intensive. Before the war, leading producers were able to fund their operations at rates as low as 3% through European banks or by issuing eurobonds, but that avenue of financing is now closed.

          The European Union, which previously accounted for about half of the country’s coal exports, banned shipments in 2022, forcing Russian companies to reroute volumes to China. This year, however, demand for the fuel in the Asian nation has dropped, adding more pressure.

          Even though coal accounts for less than 0.5% of Russia’s gross domestic product, it helps to generate over 15% of the country’s electricity and plays a key role in maintaining socioeconomic stability.

          The Kemerovo region, Russia’s biggest coal-producing area, reported a 20% budget deficit in the first quarter due to a drop in tax revenue from profits, according to Zubarevich. As a result, local authorities have already begun scaling back regional benefits, including special allowances for doctors, she said.

          Should the situation persist, Russian coal-makers’ losses may more than double this year to as much as 350 billion rubles ($4.5 billion), the Interfax news service reported at the start of this month, citing Energy Ministry data. Debt remains a key issue, with the total load expected to reach 1.4 trillion rubles.

          In May, the government announced measures to support the industry. They included a deferral on the mineral extraction tax and insurance contributions through December, subsidies for part of the expenses from logistics and compensation for some transport tariffs.

          While helpful, the steps aren’t enough to resolve the crisis, according to the people at the mining companies. They said they remained hopeful that a hot summer in China will boost demand and provide at least some relief.

          Source: Bloomberg Europe

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Trump Admin Teases Resumption Of Anti-Houthi Airstrikes After Ship Attacks

          Jason

          Political

          The Trump administration this week teased the possibility that it could order resumed airstrikes in Yemen following the two latest attacks by the Houthis on two commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis have repeatedly claimed the operations would cease if Israel ends its ongoing military campaign and blockade in Gaza.

          “These attacks highlight the continued danger posed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels to maritime trade and regional security,” said State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce in a briefing earlier this week.

          She emphasized that the US remains committed to defending commercial shipping and freedom of navigation. That's when she followed with what appeared to be a direct threat of more action.

          "The United States has been clear: We will continue to take necessary action to protect freedom of navigation and commercial shipping from Houthi terrorist attacks," she said.

          That didn't sway the Houthis given on Wednesday they confirmed responsibility for a Monday strike on the Eternity C, a Greek-owned cargo ship headed to Israel’s port of Eilat. Israel has also been conducting occasional major aerial operations over Yemen.

          Some 14 or 15 crew members have been taken hostage in the aftermath, with four killed. A Houthi military spokesman had described that the assault involved an unmanned boat along with six cruise and ballistic missiles.

          The vessel was totally destroyed and sank, with the Houthis proudly boasting of the operation in a detailed, slick montage and video production of the raid.

          Prior to that, the attack on the Magic Seas vessel drew international criticism. "It is the first such attack against a commercial vessel in 2025, a serious escalation endangering maritime security in a vital waterway for the region and the world," the EU warned.

          "These attacks directly threaten regional peace and stability, global commerce and freedom of navigation as a global public good. They can negatively impact the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen."

          Sinking of the Magic Seas

          The EU also has a freedom of navigation military patrol in the region, after Washington had long urged for the bloc to step up and shoulder some of the defense responsibility to protect international shipping.

          The Houthis have meanwhile announced fresh missile attacks on Israel:

          The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) announced on 10 July that it targeted Tel Aviv with a ballistic missile, hours after releasing new footage of an attack on a commercial vessel headed to Israel’s southern port of Eilat.

          “The missile force of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a qualitative military operation, targeting Lod Airport in the occupied Jaffa area with a Zolfiqar ballistic missile,” the YAF said in a statement on Thursday morning.

          If the White House reverses course on its de facto ceasefire in the Red Sea, this would mark yet another major foreign policy reversal, coming off the decision to ramp up weapons shipments to Ukraine, after recently halting transfers.

          Source: Zero Hedge

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Trump Tariffs: Unleashing A Global Economic Challenge

          Devin

          Economic

          The financial world is abuzz with breaking news: former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on imported goods if he returns to office. This significant policy shift, initially reported by Walter Bloomberg on X, citing NBC News, has sent ripples of speculation across markets. For those of us deeply invested in the cryptocurrency market, understanding the potential fallout of such a move is paramount. Will this be a catalyst for digital assets, or will it simply add to the broader economic uncertainty?

          Trump Tariffs: What’s on the Table?

          Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House brings with it a familiar, yet intensified, approach to international commerce: aggressive protectionism. The proposed blanket tariffs, ranging from 15% to 20% on all imported goods, represent a significant escalation from his previous trade policies. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on specific goods like steel and aluminum, and engaged in a high-profile trade war with China. This new proposal, however, suggests a far broader and more sweeping application.

          • Blanket Application: Unlike targeted tariffs, a ‘blanket’ approach means virtually all goods entering the U.S. would be subject to these new levies, regardless of their origin or type.
          • Significant Percentage: A 15-20% tariff is substantial, designed to drastically increase the cost of foreign goods and incentivize domestic production.
          • Economic Philosophy: This policy aligns with an ‘America First’ economic strategy, aiming to reduce trade deficits and bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

          The implications of such a policy are far-reaching, touching every aspect of the economy from consumer prices to corporate supply chains, and inevitably, the global financial landscape.

          The Broad Economic Impact: Who Pays the Price?

          When discussing economic impact, tariffs often lead to a complex web of consequences that extend far beyond border fees. While the stated goal of tariffs is to protect domestic industries and jobs, the reality is often more nuanced, with costs ultimately passed down to consumers and businesses alike.

          Potential Economic Ramifications:

          • Inflationary Pressures: Imported goods become more expensive. U.S. businesses that rely on imported components or finished products will face higher costs, which they are likely to pass on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can fuel domestic inflation, eroding purchasing power.
          • Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chains are intricately linked. Imposing blanket tariffs could force companies to re-evaluate or reconfigure their sourcing strategies, potentially leading to delays, increased operational costs, and reduced efficiency. This might encourage ‘reshoring’ but at a potentially significant short-term cost.
          • Reduced Consumer Spending: Higher prices for goods and services, coupled with potential wage stagnation if businesses struggle, could lead to a decline in overall consumer spending, which is a major driver of economic growth.
          • Corporate Profitability: Companies, especially those heavily reliant on international trade or imported materials, could see their profit margins squeezed. This might lead to lower earnings, impacting stock valuations and investment decisions.
          • Job Market Shifts: While some domestic manufacturing sectors might see a boost, others reliant on affordable imports or export markets could face job losses. The overall effect on employment is often debated and highly dependent on the specific industry and market response.

          Who Wins and Who Loses?

          Potential BeneficiariesPotential Disadvantaged
          Certain domestic manufacturers (if they can scale up efficiently)Consumers (higher prices, reduced choice)
          U.S. government (tariff revenue, though often offset by economic slowdown)Import-reliant businesses (retailers, some tech firms)
          Sectors with strong domestic supply chainsExport-oriented U.S. industries (due to retaliatory tariffs)

          International trading partners (reduced access to U.S. market)

          Navigating Global Trade: A New Era of Protectionism?

          The prospect of significant new import duties raises critical questions about the future of global trade. Trump’s previous tariffs sparked retaliatory measures from countries like China and the European Union, leading to a period of heightened trade tensions. A blanket tariff policy would almost certainly provoke a similar, if not more aggressive, response from major trading partners.

          Key Considerations for Global Trade:

          • Retaliatory Tariffs: Other nations are highly likely to impose their own tariffs on U.S. exports, making American goods more expensive abroad and harming U.S. industries that rely on international markets (e.g., agriculture, technology).
          • Weakening International Institutions: Such unilateral actions could further undermine the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other multilateral trade agreements, leading to a more fragmented and less predictable global trading system.
          • Shift Towards Regionalization: Countries might increasingly look to form regional trade blocs and diversify their supply chains away from reliance on the U.S. market, accelerating a trend away from globalized production.
          • Increased Geopolitical Tensions: Trade disputes can easily spill over into broader diplomatic and geopolitical conflicts, impacting international relations and stability.

          The global economy thrives on predictability and open markets. A widespread tariff regime could inject significant uncertainty, discouraging cross-border investment and innovation.

          How Import Duties Could Ripple Through Traditional Markets

          The direct consequences of these potential import duties will undoubtedly send shockwaves through traditional financial markets. Investors in stocks, bonds, and commodities will need to brace for increased volatility and re-evaluate their portfolios.

          Market-Specific Impacts:

          • Stock Markets: Expect heightened volatility. Sectors heavily reliant on imported goods (e.g., retail, consumer electronics) could face headwinds due to higher costs and reduced consumer demand. Conversely, some domestic manufacturing or raw materials sectors might see initial gains, but these could be offset by broader economic slowdowns or retaliatory tariffs.
          • Bond Markets: A ‘flight to safety’ could occur, driving demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially lowering yields. However, if inflation becomes a significant concern, bond yields might rise to compensate for eroded purchasing power.
          • Currency Markets: The U.S. Dollar (USD) might initially strengthen as capital flows into the U.S. seeking safety, or as foreign companies pay more for U.S. goods (if exports are not severely hit). However, persistent trade deficits or economic slowdowns could eventually weaken the dollar.
          • Commodities: Prices for raw materials could fluctuate. If global economic growth slows due to trade wars, demand for industrial commodities might fall. Agricultural commodities could be particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

          Investors should prepare for a period of uncertainty, with a greater emphasis on defensive assets and careful sector analysis.

          The Cryptocurrency Market: A Safe Haven or a Stormy Sea?

          Now, let’s turn our attention to what matters most to our readers: the cryptocurrency market. How might a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, leading to potential economic instability, impact digital assets?

          Arguments for Crypto as a Safe Haven:

          • Decentralization: Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin operate outside the traditional financial system, making them less susceptible to direct governmental policy changes or the stability of a single nation’s economy.
          • Inflation Hedge: If widespread tariffs lead to significant inflation and devalue fiat currencies, some argue that Bitcoin, with its capped supply, could act as a hedge, similar to ‘digital gold.’
          • Flight to Quality: In times of global economic uncertainty and traditional market volatility, investors might seek alternative assets, potentially driving demand for cryptocurrencies.
          • Increased Adoption: If traditional banking and payment systems become more cumbersome or expensive due to trade friction, the efficiency and borderless nature of crypto transactions could gain appeal.

          Arguments for Crypto Volatility and Correlation:

          • Market Correlation: Despite its decentralized nature, the crypto market has shown increasing correlation with traditional equity markets, particularly tech stocks. A downturn in global equities could drag crypto prices down.
          • Reduced Disposable Income: If consumers face higher prices and economic hardship, discretionary spending on speculative assets like crypto might decrease.
          • Regulatory Scrutiny: Periods of economic stress often lead to increased regulatory scrutiny across all financial sectors, including crypto, which could introduce new uncertainties.
          • Liquidity Concerns: In a widespread market panic, even crypto could face liquidity challenges as investors rush to cash out.

          Actionable Insights for Crypto Investors:

          • Monitor Macro Trends: Pay close attention to inflation data, interest rate decisions, and global trade developments.
          • Diversify Wisely: Consider a balanced portfolio that includes both established assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside stablecoins for capital preservation.
          • Understand Correlations: Be aware that while crypto offers diversification benefits, it’s not entirely immune to traditional market movements.
          • Long-Term Vision: For long-term holders, short-term volatility might present accumulation opportunities.

          The overall impact on crypto will likely be complex, a mix of direct and indirect effects. While its decentralized nature offers a unique appeal during economic turbulence, its increasing integration into the broader financial landscape means it won’t be entirely insulated.

          Challenges and Opportunities: Navigating the New Economic Landscape

          The potential implementation of blanket tariffs presents a dual landscape of significant challenges and emerging opportunities. The challenges are clear: increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, potential trade wars, and market volatility. Businesses will need to adapt quickly, re-evaluating sourcing strategies and potentially absorbing higher costs or passing them to consumers.

          However, opportunities may also arise. Domestic industries could experience a resurgence, leading to job creation in specific sectors. Innovation in supply chain management and logistics might accelerate. For the crypto world, this could be a moment for digital assets to prove their mettle as alternative stores of value or efficient cross-border payment mechanisms, especially if traditional systems face increased friction. The necessity of finding new ways to transact and store value, free from geopolitical pressures, could accelerate mainstream adoption of decentralized technologies.

          Conclusion: Preparing for an Unpredictable Future

          The prospect of new Trump tariffs of 15% or 20% on imports looms large, promising to reshape the economic landscape in profound ways. From consumer prices and corporate profits to the intricate dance of global trade, the economic impact will be felt across every sector. While traditional markets brace for volatility and uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market stands at a crossroads, potentially offering a decentralized alternative or facing its own set of challenges amidst the broader economic shifts. Vigilance, adaptability, and a deep understanding of these evolving dynamics will be crucial for navigating what promises to be an unpredictable future.

          Source: CryptoSlate

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Q2 Earnings Season Preview: Will Tariffs Begin To Bite?

          Thomas

          Stocks

          Economic

          Investors are still trying to get a grip on tariffs’ impact on the economy and the stock market. As the second quarter’s earnings season gets underway next week, analysts will be laser-focused on how President Donald Trump’s import taxes are affecting corporate bottom lines.

          So far, the impact of tariffs has been very muted when it comes to economic data on inflation, consumer spending, and business activity. That’s in part thanks to companies stockpiling inventories that will likely be affected earlier this year. However, firms in affected industries could see higher costs and tighter margins, and those with limited pricing power may be forced to absorb more of the tariffs than their counterparts with wider competitive advantages, which can pass more of those costs on to consumers. Analysts say second-quarter earnings results could show evidence of these trends.

          Just as critical for market watchers over the next few weeks will be the resumption of forward earnings guidance, which many firms opted out of in the first quarter, when the policy outlook was changing rapidly.

          The Trump administration recently extended its deadline for negotiations with its trading partners to Aug. 1. That means considerable uncertainty remains around the ultimate shape of US trading policy, but there will be plenty of discussion throughout earnings seasons about how companies are preparing for new levies, or how they are handling tariffs that have already been implemented. Here’s what investors need to know.

          Watch for an Earnings Slowdown

          Analysts expect earnings growth to slow somewhat over the year as tariffs take effect and begin to eat away at corporate balance sheets. Overall, they forecast 5% annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index in the second quarter, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That’s down from 13% growth in the first quarter. Earnings growth hasn’t been that slow since the fourth quarter of 2023, according to FactSet. Analysts expect 9.4% earnings growth for the calendar year 2025, down from 11% growth in 2024.

          That slowdown has implications for investors. “Now is a better time to be doing some profit-taking rather than put new money into the market,” says Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist for Morningstar. Still, earnings often surprise to the upside (and estimates are often revised down ahead of reporting), leading to beats that surpass early estimates. That was the case in the first quarter, when analysts expected 6.8% growth before companies began reporting.

          Sector by Sector

          That trend won’t be consistent from sector to sector, however. In a note to clients at the end of June, analysts from Goldman Sachs led by David Kostin said they expect a onetime boost to inflation caused by tariffs to weigh more heavily on cyclical sectors, which are sensitive to changes in the economic environment.

          FactSet consensus data shows that analysts expect 26% year-over-year declines in earnings in the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index in the second quarter, along with 5.6% declines in the consumer discretionary sector and 3.7% declines in the basic materials sector.

          In a bear case for tariffs, Morningstar’s equity research team expects the consumer cyclical and basic materials sectors to be harmed the most. Damien Conover, Morningstar’s director of equity research for North America, explained recently that retail and apparel companies could see a significant hit. “This is a very sweet spot for [tariff damage],” he says. “A very high percentage of that material is manufactured internationally, and [when] hit with tariffs, that’s going to bring down the valuations for these companies.”

          Earnings in the communication services sector of the index, on the other hand, are expected to rise nearly 30% in the second quarter, according to FactSet estimates. Analysts are also looking for 16.0% growth in the information technology sector, 3.5% earnings growth in the healthcare sector and 4.5% growth in the utilities sector.

          How Long Before Tariffs Are Felt?

          Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said they expect “the digestion of tariffs to be a gradual process” rather than a sudden shock to bottom lines. That tracks with other views on Wall Street. For instance, UBS economists don’t expect to see major changes in consumer price data until the July Consumer Price Index report, which will be released in August.

          In a recent note to clients, Goldman’s analysts say larger firms in goods related industries appear to have built up more inventory than usual to help weather the impact of new taxes. Preliminary surveys show companies plan to absorb more of the new costs than initially expected. “Recent company commentary shows S&P 500 firms plan to use a combination of cost savings, supplier adjustments, and pricing to offset the impact of tariffs,” they wrote.

          Keep an Eye on Guidance

          In the first quarter, corporate earnings reports were noticeably light on guidance. Without concrete policy on trade in place, some companies said they weren’t confident enough in the outlook for the near and medium terms to give investors a sense of how the next few years could look.

          Sekera thinks this trend could continue through the second-quarter earnings season. He warns that the details of the deals the Trump administration is negotiating this summer remain murky. “It’s still the same outstanding questions that we’ve had,” he says.

          He points to FedEx FDX, which did not offer full-year guidance for 2026 when it reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at the end of June, citing increased macroeconomic uncertainty. It did offer guidance for the upcoming quarter.

          In her recent outlook, Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders writes that guidance (and earnings surprises) are likely to take on “heightened importance” over the next few months “as markets remain sensitive to forward-looking commentary, especially amid policy uncertainty and instability related to trade, tariffs, and interest rates.” In other words, big surprises from earnings season could mean big moves in the stock market.

          Beyond Tariffs

          While the situation around US trade policy is still evolving, Sekera says he’ll be focusing on the fundamentals. In the early days of earnings season, he’ll see whether big banks are bulking up their loan loss reserves—a sign that they expect the economy to slow. He’ll be watching semiconductor maker ASML Holding ASML for clues about demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure from mega-cap tech companies, which could give investors an early read on the AI landscape overall. Meanwhile, Pepsi’s PEP results could provide a window into how new weight-loss drugs are affecting the food and drink industry.

          Source: Morningstar

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Gilts Risk More Turmoil As Swift Sellers Replace Steady Buyers

          Damon

          Economic

          The changing face of the UK bond market is making gilts a source of vulnerability for the government at a moment when it most needs stability.

          This week alone, Britain’s central bank and fiscal watchdog have both warned of the dangers of a structural change in demand that leaves the bonds at risk of more extreme moves, or even fire sales.

          The message was clear: a market once dominated by steady buyers like pension funds and the Bank of England is now dangerously exposed to the whims of flightier players such as hedge funds and foreign investors.

          The problem for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is that the shift comes at a time when they have linked their government’s economic policy directly to the trajectory of gilt yields by sailing so close to limits of self-imposed fiscal rules.

          That leaves their entire agenda at the mercy of a fickle market and heightens focus on any change in fiscal policy. Numerous flip flops haven’t helped, but the reason concerns get so quickly amplified into major bond volatility lies in an under-the-hood change in the investor base.

          “The UK is facing the biggest shift in structural supply and demand globally,” said Liam O’Donnell, a fund manager at Artemis Investment Management. “If I look at the biggest buyers of gilts over the last 10 to 15 years, two of them are no longer in the market.”

          In the years that followed the seismic gilt market selloff that contributed to the fall of Liz Truss’s government in 2022, the securities have proved vulnerable to any sniff of fiscal excess. The latest example came just last week, when rumors of a change of Chancellor sparked a spike in yields.

          But even when the problems stem from elsewhere, the UK market gets hit hard, speaking to a deeper issue.

          For decades, the UK could rely on near-insatiable demand from defined-benefit pension funds looking to match their liabilities with long-dated gilts. Yet their purchases have been dissipating at the same time as the BOE — which accumulated close to £1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) of gilts through its quantitative-easing program — has been selling down its holdings, increasing the supply of bonds as the government also seeks to borrow more.

          The daunting supply combined with the withdrawal of the two largest buyers means others need to pick up the slack. Funds with global mandates are stepping in, but having been burned by UK market meltdowns in recent years from Brexit to Truss’s gilt crisis, their appetite is more price-dependent.

          “The UK requires investment in the country, and I don’t think that can be relied on when the political backdrop has been such a mess,” Artemis’s O’Donnell said.

          While these developments aren’t unique to the UK, in many regards the nation is at the forefront of a global change in bond-market structure. Britain is also in a particularly tight spot due to the government’s self-imposed fiscal rules. Reeves left only a £10 billion buffer against these red lines in a March fiscal statement. Since then, U-turns on spending cuts, slow growth, weak tax receipts and higher spending demands mean she is now in the red, potentially by tens of billions.

          That makes movements in gilt yields — a key input into the fiscal rules since they reflect government borrowing costs — extremely pertinent. At longer maturities in particular they remain stubbornly high, and this precarious budget arithmetic has already led to a series of embarrassing policy U-turns for the government.

          Worryingly for policymakers, gilt yields are proving prone to sudden spikes. In the autumn, a rapid jump stole attention away from Reeves’ first budget. Then in January, 30-year borrowing costs hit the highest since 1998, triggering further unwanted headlines for the government and teeing up a fiscal tightening in March. The market ructions caused by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements in April also hit gilts hard, pushing yields even higher.

          “Low liquidity and a positional skew mean moves of a much greater magnitude than necessarily justified by the newsflow,” said James Athey, a fund manager at Marlborough Investment Management Ltd. “The ultimate cause is that supply of gilts is massive” and the government’s “budgetary maths are awful.”

          Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned Tuesday that the government was becoming more exposed to foreign investors because of waning pension demand. One of its models suggested the shift could add 0.8 percentage points to interest rates on government debt.

          Some investors also point to the to the growth of hedge-fund strategies as increasing volatility. Their activity as a percentage of total volume in gilts on the Tradeweb platform was 59% in the first five months of 2025. That’s higher than peers in Europe and the US, and up from 44% in 2020.

          The BOE mapped out similar concerns on Wednesday, warning a rapid unwinding of their trades poses a risk to financial stability. Governor Andrew Bailey cited last week’s moves as the latest evidence that “we are living in a period of more volatile markets.”

          Source: Bloomberg Europe

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          China Mulls Strategic Policy Shift On Stablecoins And Digital Currencies

          Owen Li

          Cryptocurrency

          Chinese authorities have proposed an important breakthrough in terms of stablecoins and digital currencies.

          The move indicates that China has possibly softened a historically hardline approach on cryptocurrency trading and mining.

          This was considered in a meeting in Shanghai this week by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).

          Shanghai Takes the Lead in Crypto Policy Discussions, Stablecoins in Focus

          Shanghai, recognized as China’s primary financial hub, is at the center of this policy review. According to reports, the Shanghai SASAC organized a meeting earlier this week to discuss strategic responses to digital currencies, particularly stablecoins.

          The discussion united several top government representatives and experts to examine possible policy developments based on the new asset class.

          In his speech to the meeting, He Qing, director of the SASAC, stated:

          The gathering had an attendance of nearly 60-70 people, which was an indicator of a wide scope of government interest relating to the subject matter.

          During the session, scholars discussed the features and issues surrounding stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, providing recommendations regarding how the nation can embrace these digital currencies in the future.

          Growing Regulatory Pressure and Adoption For Stablecoins

          The move by China is also under pressure as domestic enterprises and international financial trends rise.

          Well-established companies in China like JD.com and Ant Group are clamoring to move forward to establish a yuan-backed stablecoin and await the approval of the People Bank of China (PBoC).

          These firms have attempted to provide stablecoins with an attempt to offset the U.S dollar-based cryptocurrency dominance on the world markets.

          The Shanghai summit is also an indication of the interest that China is taking in the evolution of digital currencies with respect to the rising interest in cryptocurrencies across the globe.

          Specifically, companies like JD.com and Ant Group are actively pursuing the possibility of obtaining stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong.

          On August 1, the city will be introducing new rules regarding stablecoins, allowing legal frameworks regarding these projects.

          Challenges and Regulatory Concerns Remain

          Nevertheless, the central bank in China remains wary despite seeming openness to digital currencies.

          Recently, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, spoke out, warning of the threats that digital currencies and stablecoins present to financial regulation.

          During a statement made last month, Pan was emphatic about the dangers that these digital assets pose to the financial system of China.

          This is in light of issues of monetary stability and the likelihood of digital currencies being used in criminal processes.

          In 2021, China enacted a ban on trading and mining of cryptocurrencies to address these concerns. The prohibition also formed part of an attempt to exert control over the financial system and to diminish speculative trading.

          Although the country has maintained a tough tone on cryptocurrencies, this new change of tone indicates that regulators could be changing their tone. Besides, it also comes amid soaring global interest in the digital assets space.

          Shanghai’s Role as a Testbed for Crypto Regulations

          Traditionally, Shanghai has remained a key hub in conducting financial reforms in China. The city, being the main international financial center in the country, receives increased authorization to come up with new policies.

          Such flexibility has the potential to make Shanghai an experimental ground for new regulation in regards to stablecoins and digital currencies. With such policies being successful, they could be used as an example to the remaining part of the country.

          Although the regulatory debate is just starting up in Shanghai, its leadership role in financial innovation makes the city a possible centre for forming China’s digital currency regulations.

          Ongoing Developments in Cryptocurrency Enforcement

          Even as China considers a policy shift, the government continues to enforce its ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining.

          Chinese regulators have recently targeted one of the largest crypto exchange fraud schemes and confiscated approximately movable assets worth $300 million.

          The crackdown emphasizes the continuing stride by China to fight the illegal uses of cryptocurrencies despite the recently increased interest in digital currencies.

          The regulators have been keen on reducing illicit deals and fraudulent practices in the crypto world.

          Panshi City Public Security Bureau of Jilin Province took the lead in the investigation, and a network of illegal transactions with virtual currencies was unveiled.

          This raid, resulting in multiple arrests, serves to signal the fact that, despite China taking its steps towards a softer stance on digital assets, its efforts to avoid fraudulent and illegal practices have not been neglected.

          Source: CryptoSlate

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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