Russian Oil-Product Stranded At Sea As Korea Cracks Down

Economic

Political

Summary:

Holdings of naphtha at sea balloon after investigation starts.Russian shipments to Taiwan and China increase, Kpler reports.

Cargoes of an oil product from Russia are building up at sea as South Korean buyers turn cautious, highlighting how the invasion of Ukraine is still impacting flows more than two years later.

More than 2 million barrels of Russian naphtha, a building block for plastics, have been held in 10 tankers for more than a week, with some in the waters near Oman and Malta, as of May 7, according to market intelligence firm Kpler. That’s up from a weekly average of about 790,000 barrels in January and February.

Russian Oil-Product Stranded At Sea As Korea Cracks Down_1

Petrochemical makers in South Korea — traditionally major buyers of the Russian product — are now shunning direct imports, and any cargoes with unclear origins, for fear of government scrutiny, according to traders with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified. That follows the launch in March of an investigation into naphtha imports by the country’s authorities.

Global energy markets — for crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products — were upended by the invasion in early 2022 as some buyers shunned exports, flows were rerouted, and a web of western sanctions and price caps brought an extra layer of complication. Like most import-dependent economies, South Korea, and its refiners and plastics makers, have been forced to adapt.

Before the assault on Kyiv, Russia was South Korea’s top naphtha supplier. While direct flows dwindled after the war began, imports from nations such as United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Singapore and Tunisia swelled, according to Kpler data. In March, however, South Korean authorities launched the probe to examine whether naphtha from Russia was being re-labeled.

Since then, imports from Mideast suppliers — such as Kuwait and Oman — have risen, according to Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler. At the same time, Russian naphtha flows to China and Taiwan have expanded, Katona said, noting shipments from Moscow accounted for more than half of Taiwan’s imports in April.

While South Korean refiners and petrochemical companies are allowed to import naphtha from Moscow, they need to comply with a Group of Seven price cap that bars access to western services if cargoes cost more than certain levels. Seoul isn’t a part of the G-7 but it has supported measures that the group imposed in an effort to punish Russia for the war.

Source：Bloomberg

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Alex

Economic

Bond

ICRA, a credit rating agency, forecasts that the growth of new loans (incremental credit flow) in the Indian economy will slow down in the financial year 2025 (FY2025), while bond issuances are expected to rise to Rs 10.6 trillion in FY2025 from Rs 10.2 trillion in FY2024.

Why bonds are suddenly attractive?

While the overall growth of new credit in the Indian economy might slow down in FY2025, the bond market is expected to pick up the slack. Companies are likely to take advantage of attractive domestic interest rates and favorable conditions to raise money by issuing bonds.

As interest rates remain high in developed countries, borrowing money domestically through bond issuance becomes a more attractive option for Indian companies.

If the yield on Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) remains stable due to foreign investment, the competitiveness of bond issuance compared to bank loans is expected to improve. This could incentivize companies to issue more bonds.

Here's a breakdown:

Source of credit: The slowdown in bank credit is expected to be primarily from domestic sources, which are likely to provide Rs 24.5 trillion in new loans in FY2025. This is lower than the record high achieved in FY2024

Non-Food Bank Credit (NFBC): This refers to loans provided by banks for purposes other than agriculture. ICRA expects NFBC growth to also moderate slightly in FY2025 compared to the record high of FY2024.

Bond market to pick up slack

Corporate Bond issuances: ICRA predicts that even though overall credit growth might slow down, companies will increasingly turn to issuing bonds to raise money. This is likely due to:

Attractive Interest Rates: Interest rates are expected to remain high in developed countries. This makes borrowing money domestically in India (through bond issuance) a more attractive option for large companies.

Favorable conditions: ICRA expects conditions for issuing corporate bonds to remain positive for both companies issuing bonds (borrowers) and investors buying them.

The total value of all corporate bonds currently issued (outstanding) is expected to reach RS 50.3 trillion by the end of March 2025. This represents a YoY (Year-over-Year) growth of 9.5%.

"Competitive funding conditions in domestic markets compared to developed markets meant that large corporates tapped more domestic funding sources over the last two years. Strong demand for loans from retail borrowers and non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) drove a significant portion of the incremental flow of credit from banks. This resulted in the highest ever NFBC expansion of Rs 22.3 trillion in FY2024 far outpacing the incremental NFBC expansion of Rs. 18.2 trillion recorded in FY2023," noted ICRA in a note.

The incremental credit flow was also supported by the all-time high corporate bond issuances of Rs 10.2 trillion in FY2024 (YoY +16.9%), resulting in the stock of corporate bonds outstanding rising to an estimated Rs 46.0 trillion (+6.6% YoY) as on March 31, 2024, from Rs. 43.1 trillion as on March 31, 2023.

Domestic bond issurances

Besides, the stock of commercial papers (CPs) outstanding also rose by Rs 0.4 trillion in FY2024 to Rs. 3.9 trillion as on March 31, 2024. Cumulatively, these three sources accounted for Rs. 25.4 trillion of incremental credit flow in the domestic market, an all-time high.

Headwinds for bank lending:

Regulatory actions: Recent regulations on unsecured loans (personal loans without collateral) and limitations on bank funding for NBFCs (Non-Banking Financial Companies) might restrict the growth of new loans offered by banks. Reduced availability of cash in the banking system could further limit banks' ability to provide new loans.

However, the yield on Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) is likely to remain range-bound, driven by demand from foreign portfolio flows upon inclusion of IGBs in global indices. This shall improve the competitiveness of funding from debt capital markets vis a vis bank borrowing and would drive up corporate bond issuances, said ICRA.

“Growth is expected to eventually taper off from these levels on the back of tight liquidity, even as the foreign flows in IGBs will remain supportive for growth in corporate bond issuances. Accordingly, ICRA estimates incremental total credit (bonds, non-food bank credit and CPs) expansion to dip to Rs. 24.5 trillion in FY2025,” said Sachin Sachdeva, Vice President & Sector Head, ICRA.

Source：Business Standard

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Owen Li

Economic

Although there are signs of a slight upturn in the global economy, companies are not benefiting from it enough because of political uncertainty and geopolitical risks, the Chamber's regular AHK World Business Outlook suggested.

"The weak development of German foreign trade at the turn of the year and the slight improvement in business expectations and investment intentions point to a challenging year, despite small rays of hope," Volker Treier, DIHK head of foreign trade, said.

The German economy is highly trade-oriented and therefore sensitive to international events that weaken foreign demand.

German companies with activities abroad were increasingly optimistic about global economic developments, the DIHK survey showed.

Of the 4,300 companies surveyed, 31% expected an economic upturn at their overseas locations in the current year, boosted by slowing inflation rates and the hope of interest rate cuts.

In the last survey in November, the figure was 22%.

One in five companies still anticipated an economic slowdown, compared with 28% in the previous survey.

"There are signs of an upturn on many global markets. This gives many companies hope that the mood will improve again," Treier added.

"However, the improved economic expectations are not yet materialising in an equally strong revival in international trade - and therefore also in the business of German companies locally," he added.

EXPECTATIONS DETERIORATE IN CHINA

While companies were more upbeat about their foreign-based operations, their expectations for China deteriorated once again.

The continuing weak demand in the Chinese economy was seen as a business risk by 80% of the companies.

"The increasing competitive disadvantages compared to Chinese firms, particularly in terms of market access, contacts with authorities or in obtaining information for public tenders represent a burden for German companies," Maximilian Butek, chief representative at the DIHK delegation in Shanghai, said.

Companies were more optimistic about business opportunities in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region, which remains an important destination for the diversification of supply chains.

Firms had not seen any improvement in their situation in the eurozone from November and business expectations for the coming twelve months remained below the global average, according to the survey.

In the U.S., companies are much more concerned about uncertain economic policy conditions and, above all, trade barriers that could start in November.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Economic

A period of relative calm in India’s $4.6 trillion stock market has been shaken by speculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party may win fewer seats than initially expected in the ongoing national elections, which could affect its ability to carry out policy reforms.

The India VIX Index — a measure that uses equity option prices to gauge expected market swings over the next 30 days — rose for a ninth straight day on Tuesday, heading for its longest streak since March 2020. The so-called fear gauge, which hit a record low just two weeks ago, is now approaching its highest close since early 2023.

Modi is still widely expected to win a third five-year term in the marathon election that began April 19 and will run through June 1, with the leader having predicted that his Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win more than 400 of the 543 seats up for grabs in the lower house of parliament.

However, attention has recently shifted to a dip in voter turnout during the first two phases of voting and media reports have fanned some speculation among equity traders of a less emphatic performance for the ruling coalition. In the last election in 2019, the BJP expanded its majority to 303 seats, and the alliance it leads currently commands 353 seats.

“There is a chatter that BJP may win 290-300 seats and if that happens, markets will surely see a blip,” said Mukesh Jain, managing director of Jaipur-based Maverick Share Brokers Pvt, which has been tracking the markets for over two decades.

Fear Gauge For India Jumps As Stock Traders Mull Modi Win Margin_1

India’s benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index slid as much as 0.9% in a third day of declines on Tuesday, heading for its lowest close since April 19. That’s even as a broader gauge of Asian stocks advanced for a fourth day. Turnover in equity derivatives has also slumped to its lowest since December.

Last week, the Election Commission of India said it was disappointed with the turnout so far and is taking measures to boost participation in the remaining phases of polling. On Tuesday, voting kicked off in Modi’s home state of Gujarat in what is the third phase of the election. The winner will be declared on June 4. A party needs 272 seats in parliament to have a majority.

“There is a creeping likelihood that the deviation between reality and expectations in terms of seats that the BJP-led alliance can win could be high,” said Dhananjay Sinha, co-head of equities at Systematix Group. “This is leading to quite a bit of uncertainty in the market. It’s very likely that the recent jump in VIX is reflecting this concern in the market.” Fear Gauge For India Jumps As Stock Traders Mull Modi Win Margin_2

Fear Gauge For India Jumps As Stock Traders Mull Modi Win Margin_2

To be sure, a victory for Modi’s party still remains the most-anticipated outcome for traders. And based on India’s past political history, there’s no link between lower voter turnout and support for the incumbent party.

“Frankly, I don’t see any possibility of this,” Jain of Maverick Share Brokers said when asked about the changes of the BJP-led alliance failing to win the election. “I haven’t really thought of this scenario.”

Further, the recent weakness in Indian stocks is coming after a period of extended outperformance versus regional peers. Strategists at global banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have said that Indian equities are set to attract more foreign inflows post the general elections on bets that Modi, who has promised continued spending on infrastructure, will return to power.

Source：Bloomberg

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Thomas

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Economic

Russia's oil and gas industry has been crucial for bankrolling the invasion of Ukraine, giving the Kremlin the funds to keep fighting even as the conflict drags on through its third year. But the industry is facing a shortage of manpower as the full mobilization of Russia's economy for war exacerbates a longstanding demographic crunch.

In a nation where Gazprom PJSC's “Dreams Come True” slogan has long summed up the career aspirations of many citizens, high-paying energy companies now find themselves having to compete for workers against the Russian army and weapons manufacturers, according to analysts and recruiters working with the industry. The sign-up bonus alone for a soldier fighting in Ukraine may be equivalent to nearly a year's salary for an average oil and gas field worker.

This problem isn't entirely new — Russia has faced a shrinking working-age population for almost two decades. The collapse in birth rates in the 1990s was a root cause and the Covid pandemic added to the challenge, but the invasion of Ukraine has made it much more acute.

Lack of personnel is now hitting businesses across all parts of the economy, according to recent reports from Russia's central bank. While the oil and gas industry appears to be ticking along smoothly, there may be a longer-term impact.

“Staff shortages have affected even the wealthy industries,” said Alexei Zakharov, president of online recruiter Superjob.ru. “The oil and gas sector can afford to attract employees with higher salaries, but the state competes by offering military contracts.”

Russia's oil and gas sector lacks some 40,000 employees this year, according to estimates from Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting, which employs some former Deloitte researchers in the region. The industry raised the number of online job listings in the first quarter by 24% compared to a year before, looking not just for qualified personnel but also low-skilled workers, show data from major Russian recruitment platform hh.ru.

“This industry has open vacancies for electricians, drivers, mechanics, welders, machinists, general workers, sales managers, design engineers, salesmen,” said Anna Osipova, head of regional external communications at hh.ru.

Russia's Energy Ministry didn't respond to Bloomberg request for comment.

The oil and gas industry has long been one of Russia's highest-paying employers, offering a wage that exceeded the national average by at least two thirds since 2017, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Federal Statistics Service. In January and February, the monthly nominal salary in the industry — including workers in oil and gas production, services, refining, pipeline shipments and storage — averaged some 125,200 rubles ($1,340).

That sum no longer competes with what the Russian army is offering to contract soldiers. In addition to the flat nationwide sign-on bonus of 195,000 rubles, each Russian region offers its own one-time payment to a new recruit, rising to as much as 1 million rubles.

“Competition with salaries in the armed forces and military industrial complex has certainly had an impact,” on workforce availability for the Russian oil and gas industry, said Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting.

If a worker doesn't want to fight in Ukraine - where the UK Ministry of Defense estimates more than 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since President Vladimir Putin decided to invade in February 2022 — there are also lucrative contracts available with military manufacturers. Demand for tanks, armored vehicles and weapons has soared and arms factories have been searching for workers in the tight labor market.

Last year, Russia's state defense corporation, Rostec, raised salaries by an average 17.2%. “We still need people,” Chief Executive Officer Sergey Chemezov told Vladimir Putin in August. “Many of our facilities have been working on the weekends, on bank holidays, and at night.”

Demographic Crunch

Putin's decision to mobilize Russia's economy for war has worsened a longstanding demographic problem.

In the 1990s, the economic turmoil after the breakup of the Soviet Union sent fertility rates plunging. Between 2007 and the end of 2021, the nation's working-age population shrank by 5.8 million people, according to statistical data. The pandemic exacerbated the issue. From 2020 to 2022, almost 750,000 people died in Russia with Covid-19 listed as the main cause, according to Federal Statistics Service data.

The share of employees under 30 years in the Russian labor market dropped to 14.9% in 2022, the lowest since early 1990, according to estimates of audit and consulting firm FinExpertiza.

Another consequence of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine has been to limit the flow of laborers from abroad. International sanctions have weakened the ruble, boosted inflation and complicated international money transfers, making Russia less attractive for migrants from ex-Soviet countries. Last year, the official net inflow of foreign migrants into the country was almost 110,000 people, just a quarter of the level in 2021, the last year of statistics before the war started.

That level of immigration is just a drop in the ocean compared with Russia's demand for labor. At the end of March, the nation needed 1.86 million extra workers, according to data from Federal Statistics Service based on companies' requests to job centers.

Employee Perks

“The northern regions are starving for more workforce, there are just not enough people,“ said Denis, a 41 year-old who left the Russian energy industry last August to pursue another career in Moscow.

As salaries alone are not enough to attract a new workforce, Russian oil and gas companies, which often run their core operations in remote areas with harsh climates, have been offering further perks.

A field worker doing monthly shifts somewhere in Siberia or the Arctic can expect “hot meals three times a day” and regular medical check-ups covered by the employer, according to job listings at hh.ru. Some employers also throw in Soviet-style incentives such as “New-Year presents for kids” and trips to corporate resorts, according to recent listings on the site.

To widen the circle of potential employees, some companies have introduced a policy of “bring your friend and get paid,” offering around $50 to $100 per new hire. That's not much by western standards, but in Russia it's enough to buy the minimum level of food necessary for one person for a month.

All those perks are still not enough to lure the most desirable young skilled workers to the energy industry. In 2022, 816,000 students graduated universities in the field of energy, down by almost 13% compared with 2018, according to Sofia Mangileva, an analyst at Moscow-based consultant Yakov & Partners.

That's forcing companies to turn to older workers. “The oil industry used to encourage people to retire on time — You are close to the retirement age? Here's a big bonus for you and we'll see you off with honor, to make room for the younger generation,” said Superjob.ru's Zakharov. Now the companies are phasing these programs out and encouraging the personnel “to work as long as possible,” he said.

Key Industry

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's oil and gas sector has been targeted by an ever-tightening net of international sanctions designed to curb the flow of petrodollars. Yet the industry has continued to operate smoothly, giving Moscow the funds needed to keep sending soldiers to the front line and purchase weapons to attack Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Last year's oil-production drilling rates set a post-Soviet record, while Russia's crude exports remain robust even as the country makes output cuts in partnership with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The country's natural gas production is rebounding after a sharp drop in 2022 and 2023 when pipeline flows to Europe were mostly halted. The government expects pipeline exports of the fuel to recover by almost a fifth this year due to higher flows to China.

The labor shortages raise questions about whether Russia's oil and gas industry can sustain this performance in the longer-term.

“Restricted access to Western high-tech oil services creates a risk for maintaining and increasing profitable production and refining of oil and gas,” said Mangileva. “The lack of qualified personnel aggravates this challenge, since the task now is not only to operate the equipment, but also to develop our own technologies.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

World markets have returned to levels of almost month ago as fears of an overheated U.S. economy abate even as corporate profit growth remains brisk.

The April miss on new payrolls and the sight of annual wage growth ebbing below 4% have been enough to switch the narrative back to a Federal Reserve which is on hold for now, rather than one that may even consider further interest rate hikes.

That may seem like scant consolation to investors who at the start of the year had expected more than 100 basis points of cuts in 2024 - but it's taken the edge off restive bond markets that see another $125 billion of new Treasury coupons hit the Street again this week, starting with $58 billion of 3-year notes on Tuesday.

A standback look at incoming U.S. economic reports shows data surprises now running at their most negative since February last year.

What's more, the Fed's latest loan officers survey shows renewed weakening in demand for industrial loans and a decline in household demand for credit in the first quarter of the year.

And another New York Fed survey released on Monday showed Americans are bracing for another round of higher housing costs.

New York Fed boss John Williams said that at some undefined point the U.S. central bank will lower its interest rate target.

"Eventually we'll have rate cuts" but for now monetary policy is in a "very good place," he said on Monday.

That's seen interest rate futures move back out to price almost 50bps of Fed easing for the year, albeit only from September on. Two-year Treasury yields hovered at 4.80% on Tuesday, well off highs above 5% seen before the payrolls report last week.

Another strong gain in Wall Street stocks (.SPX), (.IXIC) on Monday show sentiment buoyed again as first quarter corporate earnings have on aggregate come in well above expectations at the start of last month. Walt Disney tops the earnings diary later on Tuesday.

The dollar (.DXY) held firm on Tuesday, pushing higher again against Japan's yen to as high as 154.65 despite the two suspected bouts of Japanese intervention last week to support the yen.

Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda once again on Tuesday said Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves.

In overseas stocks, most Asian and European bourses were higher - with only Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) breaking its stellar recent run to end in the red. Still, the Hong Kong benchmark is still up 8.35% for the year to date in dollar terms - just shy of the S&P500's 8.6% gain.

UBS TROUNCES EXPECTATIONS

In Europe, Switzerland's UBS (UBSG.S) stole the show on Tuesday as its stock surged 8% on first-quarter profits that trounced forecasts and as the bank said it was sticking with plans for share buybacks over three years despite Swiss government proposals that would hike its capital requirements.

The bank's shares have soared nearly 50% since its merger with Credit Suisse last year, with investors upbeat about UBS prospects given the low acquisition costs, its huge increase in assets and - so far - its relatively smooth progress in integrating its stricken rival.

Elsewhere, UniCredit (CRDI.MI), Italy's second-largest bank, gained nearly 3% as it raised investor reward guidance for the year after posting a much higher-than-expected net income and further boosting capital levels.

But BP (BP.L) slipped after the oil giant reported first-quarter earnings down 40% from a year earlier and missed forecasts due to lower energy prices and a U.S. refinery outage, even as oil and gas production increased.

Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

* US March consumer credit

* Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari speaks

* US corporate earnings: Walt Disney, Duke Energy, Mckesson, Occidental Petroleum, Sempra, Assurant, Wynn Resorts, Rockwell Automation, Reddit, Arista Networks, Lyft, Match, Henry Schein, Electronic Arts, Jack Henry, Bio Rad, TransDigm, NRG, Kenvue etc

* Chinese President Xi Jinping in France and Serbia as part of week-long visit to Europe

* UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt answers questions in parliament

* US Treasury auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes

Morning Bid: Cooler US Takes Edginess Off Markets, UBS Jumps_1

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Bitcoin returned above $64,000 on May 7 as the market took liquidity on both sides of the order book.

Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price aims to grind down nearby sellers

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action heading higher from the day’s lows of $62,864 on Bitstamp.

Still within a trading range in place since May 3, BTC/USD nonetheless gave speculators little chance to rest, with sharp moves in either direction liquidating positions.

After the daily close, it was bid liquidity being taken around $63,500, with Bitcoin then reversing to attack a larger cloud of liquidity around $1,000 higher, data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms. Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_2

Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_2

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Commenting on recent price action, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that the weekend’s CME futures gap had already closed.

“Took some hours after the futures re-open but got there on Monday which is something we tend to see quite often,” he acknowledged in part of commentary on X (formerly Twitter). Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_3

Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_3

BTC/USD chart with CME futures data. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Fellow trader Skew meanwhile highlighted several key levels to pay attention to going forward.

“Price currently still chopping around $64K,” part of his latest market update stated on the day.

“Going forward structurally important to trade Monthly open & $61K as market demand. HTF pivot $67K.”BTC/USD chart. Source: Skew/X

Skew added that the recovery from two-month lows near $58,000 differentiated this bull market from that of 2021 when Bitcoin first attacked that level — all thanks to spot buyer demand.

U.S., Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF narrative flips bullish

On the subject of demand, the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed a strong day of inflows on May 6.

Data from sources including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside confirms that all ten spot ETFs — including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) — saw either neutral positive flows. These totaled $217 million.

On May 3, GBTC saw its first day of inflows since its conversion to an ETF. Bitcoin Trader Flags Key Levels as BTC Price Attacks $64K Liquidity_5

Bitcoin spot ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside

“As long as inflows stays positive here the supply is getting scooped up so overall quite bullish,” popular commentator WhalePanda wrote in part of an X reaction.

WhalePanda additionally described the inflows to the newly-launched Hong Kong spot ETFs as “very stable volume-wise with consistant $8-9 million.”