Mutiny Could Profoundly Change Russia's War and Politics

Devin

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Political

Summary:

President Vladimir Putin's authority now severely challenged following Saturday's actions by Wagner Group.

The dynamics of Russian politics and the war in Ukraine may have been profoundly changed by the Wagner Group mutiny.

It was one of the most extraordinary days in Russia's recent history where, had Wagner's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin not lost his nerve, Moscow could have been in flames and President Vladimir Putin's rule may have collapsed.

Exactly how Saturday 24 June will affect the Kremlin hierarchy and Ukraine's front line will become more apparent in the coming days and weeks.

What is immediately apparent is that the Russian leader's political position has been severely undermined, but the extent of this remains unclear.

There has certainly been an emasculation of the Russian military, with the Wagner Group's 30,000 fighters, including a hard core of 5,000 veterans, having been withdrawn from operations.

These have been among Russia's most effective troops, responsible for the eventual capture of Bakhmut. Their loss as a reserve to block any Ukrainian breakthrough could prove costly.

Frontline impact

An inescapable fact that will now dog Mr. Putin is that hostile forces got the closest to Moscow since the Nazi invasion in 1941.

That an armoured column was able to travel with near impunity to within 300km of the capital will be seen as a serious failure of the internal security forces, including the Rosgvardia national guard.

The incident added weight to the argument that, with so many troops committed to Ukraine, Russia's armed forces have very little in reserve.

This could well prove pivotal in Ukraine's counter-offensive planning, knowing that all they need is a breakthrough, with Russian forces having few resources to stop them.

Furthermore, frontline morale among Moscow's troops must have been shaken by events on Saturday, and their questioning of the war's legitimacy enhanced by Mr. Prigozhin's widely broadcast comments that the invasion was launched to reward Russian generals.

Ukraine's information operations will look to use the damage to Mr. Putin's reputation to undermine his troops' confidence in their leaders. The image of Wagner tanks in Rostov-on-Don and armoured columns on the road to Moscow will prove hard to banish.

Putin's aura

The war was instigated on the orders of one man and has been continued at his command. That Mr. Putin's aura of authority has been so demonstrably challenged is likely to have an impact on the battlefield.

To add further humiliation, Mr. Putin was forced to rely on Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko, who took a direct hand in persuading Mr. Prigozhin to stop his advance on Moscow.

But it is still early days, and the situation remains complex. Laurie Bristow, a former British diplomat in Russia, has suggested that there are "several more acts of this to play out".

"One of the things that we're all struggling with is trying to make sense of what actually happened in the last 24 hours," he told the BBC. "We don't understand fully why the Russian response was so weak. This is a Russian crisis made in Russia by the failures of the Russian leadership."

But the West should not get ahead of itself and assume that Saturday's events meant that "Mr. Putin will be leaving power anytime soon", he added.

Furthermore, very real danger remains over the transition of power if Mr. Putin is removed, particularly with Russia possessing the world largest number of nuclear warheads.

Frontline impact

That the mutiny happened in Rostov, the headquarters and main logistics centre of the war in Ukraine, and that its population welcomed Wagner, will have an impact.

While a reported seven helicopters and aircraft were shot down, allegedly by Wagner, commanders did not, at least, have to pull back their few reserves from Ukraine, after it was rumoured that Russian paratroopers were being readied to be sent to defend Moscow.

But Ukraine did also appear to take some advantage of the chaos, making advances to a village within 14 kilometres of Donetsk.

The friction already present within Russia's high command could well worsen. There will also now be political difficulties in mobilising more conscripts for the next year of war.

"Who would want to fight on for a Russian regime which has shown such weakness, declaring a mutiny and then rowing back within the day?" said John Foreman, a former British defence attaché in Moscow.

Independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev suggested there was now a "crisis in trust" in Russia's institutions.

"Putin's position is weakened," he told AFP. "Putin underestimated Prigozhin, just as he underestimated Zelenskyy before that."

"He could have stopped this with a phone call to Prigozhin, but he did not."

Putin positives

One positive for Mr. Putin will be that, for now, the Ministry of Defence will no longer suffer the bitter criticism that Mr. Prigozhin has levelled at its commanders for the last four months.

Questions remain over whether the deal struck on Saturday will lead to the removal of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief Gen Valery Gerasimov.

But given that the Russian military has proved ineffective under their command, a younger, more vibrant leadership could energise its campaign.

Despite Saturday's disorder, Russia still managed to carry out its biggest strike in months, sending 53 cruise missiles into Kyiv and elsewhere.

During his 23-year reign, Mr. Putin has faced challenges to his power before, but nothing as grave as the Wagner mutiny.

Having overcome the challenge, his strategy will likely be to refocus on Ukraine in the hope that Kyiv's current offensive will founder.

If that happens, the West's support could weaken, more so if the US elects a new president next year.

Mr. Putin will continue to play the long game, hoping for victory in Ukraine. But his future could well be determined by the "securocrats" and oligarchs who cement his authority, and whose confidence in his leadership could now have been undermined to the point of change.

Under such circumstances, he may be scapegoated for the war, prompting rapid regime change with the potential of an ultra-nationalist leader taking his place.

What is clear is that 24 June 2023 could well prove a pivotal day in the history of Russia.

Source: The National News

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Kevin Du

Energy

Record heat across Asia is putting its surging renewable power fleet to the test, highlighting the need for backup supply, transmission system upgrades and tariff reforms to ensure reliability and stave off a slowdown in green energy adoption.

Temperatures in parts of the region breached 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in late April, earlier than usual, causing widespread infrastructure damage and power outages.

In China, where renewables account for more than half of the power mix, authorities kept backup coal and gas-fired plants on standby to meet demand and sudden spikes in consumption from the early heat, consultancy Rystad said.

India's top solar power producing state Rajasthan has been getting "early warnings" of technical challenges that could arise as the use of renewables increases, a federal power ministry official said.

Improving reliability of the grid would involve expensive upgrades. Transmission and distribution network improvements alone are likely to cost at least $2 trillion over the next decade in the Asia-Pacific region, consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicted this month.

India is extending the life of coal-fired power plants and China is building new ones to ensure there is enough backup supply to address higher power demand, potentially increasing emissions in the absence of regulations and policy reforms.

"Heat waves are kind of the start of a vicious cycle downwards. You're creating climate change, and then you're causing more demand for energy, and then it's creating more climate change," Malavika Bambawale, APAC managing director at Engie's sustainability division Engie Impact said.

Lack Of Incentives

The absence of tariff structures in much of Asia to encourage running coal or gas-based power plants for only a few peak hours a day could push grid operators to operate fossil fuel plants as much as possible, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Clean Energy and Air.

Power from solar and wind is harder to forecast and control as it varies by local weather conditions, and cannot be ramped up or down in response to sudden demand spurts or dips - unlike with hydro and gas.

"If proper tariff structures incentivising flexible thermal generation are not introduced, it could result in slower renewable energy adoption," he said. "Grid regulators need to build a grid that can regulate voltage and frequency given how solar behaves. That's of course a challenge."

China and India are examining ways to incentivise flexible generation, but no comprehensive policy has been implemented yet.

Solar, Plus Coal

Green energy capacity in Asia grew 12% in 2022, the fastest rate among major regions, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

The share of renewables including hydro in Asia's power mix is set to double from 2011 levels to 28% this year, Wood Mackenzie predicts. Much of that growth has come from wind and solar, which combined will account for 14% of the total, from 1% in 2011.

However, authorities in India's sun-drenched Rajasthan state are finding it increasingly difficult to control voltage fluctuations due to the inconsistent nature of solar power output.

"When there is a fault in the grid, renewables have to stay connected and support the grid, and nearby generation resources should contribute some power to feed that fault," the Indian official said, declining to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media.

"Many of these renewable plants are not actually able to comply with such requirements," the official said.

To meet surging recent demand, India has increased local coal production and boosted inventories to the highest levels since the pandemic and extended an emergency mandate that forces power plants running on imported coal to maximise output.

In China, the surging share of renewables necessitates "more flexible and fast-response power sources such as gas, pumped storage and battery storage will be needed for peak shaving," Rystad said in a note.

Cautionary Tale

As many parts of Asia including China, Malaysia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have faced power outages in recent weeks due to extreme heat, Vietnam offers a cautionary tale.

More than half of the Southeast Asian country's installed capacity became unavailable during a recent heatwave, causing blackouts due to low water levels at dams producing hydropower and a failure to fully integrate newly-installed solar capacity.

Part of the problem in Vietnam is that solar farms were built far from where the power was most needed, said Pablo Hevia-Koch, head of renewable integration at the International Energy Agency.

"When there's a mismatch in where the generation is put and where the demand is, that will put some stress into the system," Hevia-Koch said.

Source: Mining

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Justin

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Can the euro keep going?

It’s been a solid month for the euro, which has capitalized on bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further than previously expected. Despite mounting signs that inflation is cooling off and economic activity is stagnating, the ECB still decided to telegraph its intentions for higher rates.

Ultimately this precommitment might prove to be a mistake since it ties the ECB’s hands, but for now, the rally in European yields has turned the euro into a more attractive investment destination. Another blessing for the euro has been the weakness in the US dollar, and even more so in the Japanese yen lately. After all, FX is a relative game.

Looking ahead, the question is whether there is still some juice left in the euro’s rally. That might be decided by the inflation report on Friday and what it implies for the ECB’s path. Inflation has been steadily declining this year and the latest business surveys suggest this trend continued in June, with selling prices rising at the slowest pace in over two years.

Week Ahead – Euro and bleeding yen Brace for inflation tests_1

Markets are already pricing in another two rate increases over the coming months, and admittedly, it will be extremely difficult for the ECB to exceed those expectations amid slowing inflation and with the economy already in a mild technical recession.

Therefore, the euro might not be able to count on any further support from monetary policy. It could still advance if other major currencies keep depreciating, but the rally is unlikely to receive any more ‘fuel’ from the euro side of the equation.

Ahead of the Eurozone-wide flash CPI print on Friday, investors will get a taste of what to expect from the German numbers on Thursday.

Sinking yen turns to inflation data for help

Over in Japan, the yen has been devastated by the Bank of Japan’s refusal to tighten monetary policy. Naturally, the yen’s losses have been heavier against currencies that are backed up by hawkish central banks, hence the parabolic moves in euro/yen and pound/yen.

With the currency in freefall, Japanese authorities have stepped up their warnings about FX intervention, but market participants don’t seem to believe them. Implied volatility in dollar/yen has been falling for months now, so bank dealers and investment managers are not panic-hedging against any massive movements in the yen.

Indeed, the intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials has not reached ‘peak levels’ either. So far, the finance minister has refrained from using phrases that would suggest intervention is imminent. Instead, he has been more measured with his comments, which makes the risk of FX intervention appear relatively low for now.

Week Ahead – Euro and bleeding yen Brace for inflation tests_2

As such, for the yen to stand any chance of a comeback, it would need to rely on speculation that the Bank of Japan might adjust its policy settings next month. This puts extra emphasis on the CPI inflation numbers for Tokyo, which will hit the markets on Friday.

The Tokyo core CPI rate is projected to have risen in June, although just barely. Such an increase probably wouldn’t be enough to get the markets excited about a BoJ policy shift in July, which suggests the yen might continue to suffer for a while longer.

Dollar eyes PCE inflation

In the United States, the show will get started on Tuesday with the release of durable goods orders and new home sales for May, ahead of the core PCE price index on Friday, which will be released alongside personal consumption and income numbers for the same month.

There is a game of chicken being played between Fed officials and market participants in recent weeks, with policymakers telegraphing another two rate increases for this year but investors only pricing in one. As such, the persistence of inflationary pressures will decide who is right, driving the dollar accordingly.

Overall, the greenback has been under some pressure this month, partly because of the market’s skepticism about the Fed’s hawkish signals and partly because of the euphoric tone in stock markets that has diminished safe-haven flows.

Week Ahead – Euro and bleeding yen Brace for inflation tests_3

Yet, there is some scope for a dollar recovery moving forward, since the US economy seems much more resilient than its competitors and the summer months could be marked by tighter liquidity conditions as the Treasury continues to raise its cash levels.

Finally in neighboring Canada, inflation stats for May are out on Tuesday. The loonie has advanced lately despite the decline in oil prices, mostly on the back of hawkish signals from the Bank of Canada, so the inflation report will be crucial in deciding the longevity of this rally.

Source:XM

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Damon

Stocks

When a senior Goldman Sachs technology banker delivered a grim prediction to his colleagues earlier this year, it marked the beginning of downturn that would result in some bankers leaving.

Mergers and acquisitions among technology companies could be down as much as 80% in 2023, Sam Britton, one of the leaders of Goldman's global technology, media and telecommunications group, wrote in an internal memo in February, as an economic slowdown and a hostile anti-trust environment weighed on dealmaking appetite.

Britton tried to boost morale, arguing that market conditions could change quickly, according to sources who described the contents of the memo. But the plunge in the deal pipeline prompted soul-searching and job-hopping among investment bankers accustomed to a feast.

In the months that followed, a number of top technology bankers have left firms such as Goldman, Bank of America and Barclays, often for smaller peers such as Moelis & Co, Qatalyst Partners, Evercore, and Jefferies Financial Group, according to interviews with more than a dozen bankers and previous Reuters reporting.

The latter lured the bankers by promising a bigger payout for their deals, often guaranteeing minimum compensation of millions of dollars for two years, those interviewed said. They added that it was unusual for so many senior bankers to jump ship in the space of a few weeks.

A Barclays spokesperson said the bank was confident in its plan to break into the top five investment banks. Representatives of the other banks either declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

Technology was the top sector for mergers and acquisitions for eight consecutive quarters until the second quarter of 2022, when a bout of inflation forced central banks to raise interest rates, weighing on tech stock valuations.

Global deal volumes in the technology sector have dropped by more than half so far this year, according to data from LSEG Deals Intelligence.

Technology Deal Doldrums Give Bankers the Job-Hopping Itch_1

Investment bankers and headhunters say the talent flight could change the competitive position of many banks when technology firms decide to embark on big deals again.

"When the pay is less, bankers feel less committed to the bank they are at. The cost of opportunity to switch is less," said Anthony Keizner, managing partner at executive search firm Odyssey Search Partners.

Goldman has lost several high-ranking technology bankers this year, including Nick Pomponi, former co-head of global software investment banking who left for Evercore, Rob Chisholm, a partner who moved to Qatalyst, and Troy Broderick, who was named chief operating officer of Goldman's M&A business in May only to leave for Perella Weinberg Partners.

Barclays, which has struggled to retain bankers following a shake-up in the management of its investment banking division, has lost at least nine top technology bankers in recent weeks. They include Laurence Braham, its former global chair of investment banking, and Richard Hardegree, its head of technology M&A, who both moved to UBS, and Steve Markovich, its former global co-head of software investment banking, who left for Centerview.

Ron Eliasek, one of the software industry's top investment bankers, left his post as global chairman of technology, media, and telecommunications at Bank of America earlier this month to join Jefferies.

In a big bet on technology dealmaking, Moelis & Co hired 46 technology bankers from SVB Securities, the investment banking arm of failed Silicon Valley Bank, including Jason Auerbach who led the team, a Moelis executive told an industry conference last week.

Pay Guarantees

In making the switch, many bankers forfeit the resources of big banks that can help win clients, such as top brokerage coverage and a balance sheet to fund deals, in exchange for a bigger cut of the fees from the deals they put together.

Traditionally, smaller firms have been reluctant to offer investment bankers guaranteed compensation, in order to have more of their pay tied to performance. Yet some are now offering guaranteed pay of between $2 million and $12 million over the first two years to poach top talent, the bankers interviewed by Reuters said.

Alan Johnson, managing director of compensation consultancy Johnson Associates, said that first-year guarantees were common practice in the hiring of investment bankers, but second-year guarantee used to be rare.

He added that bankers who leave big banks for smaller firms are signing up for a bigger slice of a smaller pie, so clinching these two-year guarantees eases the pressure on them to help grow the pie as soon as they join.

"You get paid a higher percentage of revenue than in a big bank, but you have to generate the revenue with perhaps less help," Johnson said.

Source: U.S. News

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Justin

Central Bank

Economic

The Bank of England, forced to raise interest rates for the 13th consecutive meeting to help quell persistent inflation, faces its most serious crisis of confidence since 1992, when the UK was forced out of Europe’s exchange rate mechanism.

The 0.5 percentage point rise on 22 June, taking bank rate to a 15-year high of 5%, was steeper than the 0.25 points predicted by many economists. The Bank’s hand was forced by a surprisingly high 8.7% annual inflation rate for May and a fresh rise in the core inflation rate, in contrast to falling core inflation in the US and the euro area.

The problems for the Bank are in some ways more acute than when it exhausted foreign exchange reserves on Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, after a vain defence of sterling’s ERM rate ordained by the Conservative government in 1990. Since 1997, the Bank of England has been operationally independent and responsible for fighting inflation.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, under fire in 2022 from the short-lived government of Liz Truss, was granted a temporary reprieve through deft handling of last autumn’s UK financial market unrest. Truss consciously failed to learn any of the lessons from Black Wednesday. As government bond yields skirt levels in last year’s upsets, bringing politically sensitive upward pressure on mortgage rates, Bailey is coming under renewed criticism from the media and politicians over a relaxed attitude to incipient inflation in 2021.

The much predicted peril of high inflation coupled with steeper unemployment and recession now looks like becoming reality. Bailey is coming under attack above all over failure to rein the huge rise in the Bank of England’s balance sheet through quantitative easing – purchases of government bonds – in 2021.

Sunak’s inflation promise may return to haunt him

Rishi Sunak, prime minister, who took over from Truss after she was forced out in October, faces a political backlash from higher interest rates as well as four difficult by-elections next month. A member of parliament only since 2015, Sunak exudes a technocratic image aimed at reassuring voters after the chaotic premierships of Truss and her disgraced predecessor Boris Johnson. But he still has much to learn about how to be a politician. His promise to halve inflation to 5% this year may return to haunt him.

The Bank’s difficulties have been exacerbated by a legacy of financial market nervousness after the September-October strains that caused the departure of both Kwasi Kwarteng, then chancellor of the exchequer, and Truss herself. But many of Bailey’s public statements over the last three years have been judged as weak, displaying a lack of public relations skills and complacency that have undermined public confidence.

In addition, the Bank has faced charges from some quarters over alleged inaction to control risks in the UK pension fund industry that became evident in last autumn’s volatility. This applies in particular to pension funds’ use of liability-driven investment strategies – even though the main responsibility here is carried by the Pensions Regulator, the UK’s lacklustre pensions regulatory body.

Sniping against Bailey restarting from ruling Conservatives

Jeremy Hunt, chancellor of the exchequer, said he fully supported the Bank’s move. But sniping against Bailey is restarting among politicians from the ruling Conservatives. The party is deeply unpopular after a string of political and economic setbacks, including lack of success from Britain’s departure from the European Union consummated in 2020-21.

Britain’s imbroglio underlines elements of truth in the remark in 1996 by Theo Waigel, Germany’s then finance minister, to Gordon Brown, later Labour chancellor of the exchequer. Just before the 1997 election, which led to a Labour victory and Brown making the Bank operationally independent, Waigel told him that independence was a useful tool to allow the government to blame the central bank for disagreeable interest rate increases.

‘We know this is hard,’ Bailey, said on 22 June pointing to difficulties for people with mortgages. ‘But if we don’t raise rates now, it could be worse later.’ The bank’s monetary policy committee – which voted seven to two in favour of the increase – said: ‘There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process.’

When she took office in September, Truss toyed with the idea of replacing Bailey, whose eight-year term runs until 2028, until she realised that his legal position made removal highly difficult. Instead, she forced Kwarteng to sack Tom Scholar, permanent secretary at the Treasury.

Sunak is unlikely to be bold enough to prompt a showdown with Bailey. However, should the Labour party come to power after an election thought likely to take place in October 2024, an incoming Prime Minister Keir Starmer could prevail upon Bailey to make way.

Two possible replacements are Minouche Shafik, a former Bank of England and UK government official who is about to become president of Columbia University in New York, and Shriti Vadera, a former government official and investment banker, now chair of UK insurance group Prudential.

Source:David Marsh

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Glendon

Forex

Central Bank

Korea, Japan to discuss currency swap after 8-year suspension_1 Finance ministers of Korea and Japan will resume their annual bilateral meeting this week in Tokyo. Cooperation in the financial and foreign exchange sectors, possibly including a Korea-Japan currency swap, is expected to be discussed.

According to the finance ministry, Sunday, Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho and his Japanese counterpart Shunichi Suzuki are scheduled to meet in Japan's capital on Thursday.

As this is the first bilateral meeting since diplomatic relations have been on the path to recovery, all eyes are on whether the bilateral currency swap line, which has been suspended for eight years, will be restored.

A currency swap line is an agreement in which two central banks to exchange currencies, providing one another with access to foreign currency in liquidity.

Some market watchers believe that the benefits may not be significant due to the weakened status of the Japanese yen. However, the symbolic significance of restoring economic cooperation with Japan is expected to be substantial.

"The Korea-Japan currency swap carries symbolic significance in the restoration of the economic relationship between the two countries when considering overall factors such as economic exchanges and corporate investment between Korea and Japan, rather than purely economic factors like exchange rate stability," Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong said at a press meeting last week.

The currency swap line has ridden a rollercoaster, tied closely to the diplomatic relations of the two countries. Its value rose to $70 billion in 2011 since the two countries first agreed to a $2 billion currency swap in July 2001. However, it has been suspended since February 2015 when bilateral relations worsened.

"I will do my best to achieve a meaningful result," Choo said earlier this month during a discussion forum held in Seoul.

The Korea-Japan finance ministers' meetings, which started being held in 2006, were suspended temporarily after the last meeting in August 2016 due to a deterioration in diplomatic relations.

Also on the agenda are the current global economic trends and the strengthening of cooperation in international forums, such as the Group of 20 (G20) meetings.

Article Source： Koreatimes

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Cohen

Energy

With temperatures across India soaring above 45 degrees Celsius this week, you'd hope the government had learned from last year's deadly heatwaves and properly prepared the healthcare system for the next climate-driven crisis.

Temperature and humidity at levels now seen in South Asia's pre-monsoon hot season are already testing the limits of human survivability. That risks mass deaths as the planet warms further this century.

Instead, attempts to even enumerate what is happening have become embroiled in bitter arguments. Nearly 100 people have died from heat-related conditions in two of the country's most populous states in recent days, the Associated Press reported this week - but officials, including medics, have disputed the claims.

The Indian Express newspaper reported that one hospital superintendent who had publicly linked deaths to heatstroke was later removed from his position for giving "a careless statement". It then quoted a doctor who had visited the same clinic as saying the causes were unclear.

Heatwave Deaths Are Used As A Political Weapon

The episode is emblematic of the explosive potential of heatwave deaths in the divisive political atmosphere in the giant state of Uttar Pradesh that's led by a Hindu nationalist firebrand from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party.

Beyond that, though, it's symptomatic of the parlous state of health services and public data in a country that lacks the means to even know for certain how many people its broiling climate is killing, let alone take measures to help them.

Going by some numbers, the effects of high temperatures on India's population seem remarkably slight. Last year's brutal heatwave season, which saw temperatures in Delhi as high as 49.2 degree Celsius, is widely quoted as resulting in only 90 deaths.

The figure is an estimate based on media reporting cited in one of the first studies to measure the influence of climate change on the disaster. That study admits the two-digit number is likely an underestimate: In the city of Ahmedabad alone, a 2010 heatwave resulted in 1,344 heat-related deaths. So far, however, it's the closest we've got to a figure.

The COVID-19 pandemic gives an insight into why better numbers are lacking. Most deaths have multiple causes. When one is a novel and politicised event such as an epidemic or heatwave, people may tend to either overplay or downplay this factor.

When a 65-year-old with angina has a heart attack on a day when the temperature touched 45 degree Celsius, did they die of heat or heart disease?

That can lead to distorted figures. China changed its standard for attributing coronavirus infection and pressured doctors to name other issues during its outbreak last year, in each case serving to suppress reported mortality.

A common solution to that problem is looking at excess deaths - comparing recorded fatalities with the number you'd expect in a typical year to iron out the effects of reporting bias. One excess-deaths study last year found that as many as 4.9 million people in India had died during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the 412,000 officially recorded COVID-19 deaths.

Too Many Unrecorded Deaths

Even that approach may be inadequate in India, however, because the most basic data on mortality is too patchy. Nationwide, roughly 8 per cent of estimated deaths in 2019 went unrecorded, according to an annual government survey, and only 19 per cent of the total were certified by a medical professional, a step considered routine in most countries.

In Bihar, a province neighbouring Uttar Pradesh on the lower Ganges with a population bigger than Japan's, just 52 per cent of deaths were recorded and 5.1 per cent were medically certified.

As a result, biases are baked into every level of information. For instance, though women and men die at roughly similar rates, women account for just 40 per cent of registered mortalities - not because of their longevity, but the fact that their low social status means their deaths are less likely to be recorded.

The people most at risk from heatwaves are the poor, the old and very young, and those in isolated rural areas. These are precisely the groups who are most likely to be missed from official tallies of vital statistics.

Measuring excess mortality, as a result, mostly gives us a picture of how extreme temperatures affect the urban middle class, rather than the population as a whole.

This information gap could be fatal. Without solid figures, it's impossible to know which populations are most at risk, or where medical and emergency supplies should be sent when hot spells are forecast.

India's healthcare system may be threadbare in its cities, but in rural areas, it can be close to non-existent.

Mortality that isn't measured doesn't get addressed. On a planet that warms with each passing year, India's data deficiencies are fueling a deadly complacency.