Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Why did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine and try to capture Kyiv in February 2022, and not years earlier? Moscow has always wanted to dominate Ukraine, and Putin has given the reasons for this in his speeches and writings. Why then did he not try to take all or most of the country after the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, rather than only annexing Crimea, and giving limited, semi-covert help to separatists in the Donbas?

The US never had an exit strategy for Iraq and Afghanistan. Does it have one for Ukraine?

Gold bears approached intraday lows during two consecutive days of declines, dampening Friday's rally from a seven-week low. Escalating tensions around the "anniversary" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is supporting risk aversion in the USD. The equally important Global Purchasing Managers Index and the Fed's meetings' minutes are looking for a clear direction in the general bearish bias on gold prices.

European gas prices have collapsed over the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mild weather and weak industrial demand have ensured that gas storage has remained strong. The region should get through this winter comfortably and prospects also look better for the 23/24 winter. While we have cut our forecasts, significant risks to the upside remain.

Almost a year into Moscow's full-scale invasion, what was a proxy war appears to be evolving into direct conflict.

The European Union has enough gas for the winter but could face a shortage in 2023 if Russia cuts supplies further.

The IEA said oil prices could rise next year as western sanctions squeeze Russia's oil supply and market demand exceeds expectations. The risks remain until the FOMC meeting. The sell-off triggered by worries about the recession may have been halted after two consecutive months of data indicating that U.S. inflation has cooled.

Overall, basic metals have experienced a turbulent year. Most metals performed strongly in Q1, given the increase in supply uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, the metals market has been under heavy pressure for the rest of the year due to the stronger USD, rising interest rates, and weakened downstream demand.

The Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for more than half a year. Apparently, it was a Russia-Ukraine war of attrition, while the truth is a battle between Russia and the US, a bayonet of the two world energy powers, and the final competition of global arms exports. For Russia, withdrawal may mean loss, more than the energy and arms market, the loss will be the country's future. Thus, so even if Russia is drained on the battlefield, it will maintain the cheese of the arms and energy markets on which they depend now.

Russia's oil export revenues are at much greater risk from a global economic recession than the price cap being planned by the United States and the European Union.