What is the Wagner Group? A look at the mercenary group led by man accused of ‘armed mutiny’ in Russia

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Long at odds with Russia’s military leaders in the war in Ukraine, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin took his feud to a new level Friday when he leveled accusations that his fighters had been struck and vowing revenge.

The threat, made over his official Telegram channel, sparked what appeared to be a crisis in Russia.

The country’s security service FSB called on Prigozhin’s own Wagner Group private army to refuse orders and detain him, and it opened a criminal investigation for “organizing an armed rebellion, the prosecutor general’s office said.

Russian Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev on video from broadcaster RBK called it a stab in the back, calling it “a coup d’état.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed, and “necessary measures are being taken,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

What is the Wagner Group?

Called by Russia a “private military company” the Wagner Group is called a proxy force by U.S. officials and others, while others label it a mercenary group.

It was founded in 2014, and is owned by Prigozhin, a 61-year-old who has been previously known as “Putin’s chef” for catering state events with his catering business.

In December, the U.S. believed that the Wagner Group had an estimated 50,000 personnel inside Ukraine — around 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts from Russian prisons, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.

Russia has denied the involvement of the Wagner Group in its official military operations, but the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies says it is often directly connected to the Russian state. It played a role in Russia’s operations in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015, it said.

“Instead of using the Russian narrative, according to which Wagner is a private military company, Wagner should be viewed as a classic proxy organization,” it said.

Worldwide efforts

The Wagner Group has also been involved in other parts of the world, including Africa.

The Wagner Group has operated in the civil conflict in Libya, and Russia sent it military equipment including fighter aircraft and armored vehicles, so that Russia could get a foothold in the country, the U.S. Department of Defense said in 2020.

Wagner Group was also sent to Central African Republic in its civil war, where the group was accused of executing civilians, attacking U.N. peacekeepers and targeting predominantly Muslim communities.

Senior Western diplomats have said that the Wagner Group took control of a gold mine there. Human Rights Watch said in a report that suspected Wagner Group forces have committed atrocities, including executing unarmed men.

The U.S. in January designated the Wagner Group a transnational criminal organization. In Africa, it destabilized countries committed “widespread human rights abuses and extorting natural resources from their people,” the U.S. Treasury Department said then in imposing sanctions.

The war in Ukraine has helped the Wagner Group grow in influence, Kirby, the U.S. National Security Council spokesman, has said.

“His influence is expanding. Wagner’s independence from the Russian Defense Ministry has, is only increased and elevated over the course of the 10 months of this war,” Kirby said at the December briefing.

The Russian military has been relying on Wagner fighters in Ukraine, and in some cases, Russia’s military officials have been subordinate to the commands of the Wagner Group, he said.

Prigozhin vows retaliation

Prigozhin has accused Russia’s military leadership of incompetence in Ukraine, but on Friday he publicly accused Russia’s military leadership of striking his forces. He claimed there was a missile attack at its rear camps.

Prigozhin said, without providing evidence, that Russia’s military leadership was responsible for the deaths of 2,000 fighters.

“Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance,” Prigozhin said in a series of audio messages on his official Telegram channel.

Russia’s FSB security service responded by starting a criminal case against him for what it said was a call for an armed rebellion.

The FSB said that “his actions are a ‘stab in the back’ of Russian servicemen” and called on Wagner fighters to refuse orders and take Prigozhin into custody. Russia denies Prigozhin’s claims.

Security was increased in Moscow, Russian state news agency TASS reported, and video distributed by the Reuters news agency showed military vehicles near Russia’s Parliament early Saturday local time.

Prigozhin denied it was an armed rebellion, but called it “a march of justice.”

He claimed that his forces entered Russia, and that “Right now we are entering Rostov,” referring to a city in the south of Russia.

Source：CNBC

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Michelle

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush what he called an armed mutiny after rebellious mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday he had taken control of a southern city as part of an attempt to oust the military leadership.

The dramatic turn, with many details unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine -- which he called a "special military operation" -- in February last year.

In a televised address, Putin said that "excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason," and called the mutiny a "stab in the back."

"It is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to defend the Fatherland against such a threat will be harsh."

"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people," Putin said.

Prigozhin had demanded that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, whom he has pledged to oust over what he says is their disastrous leadership of the war against Ukraine, come to see him in Rostov, a city near the Ukrainian border that he said he had seized control of.

He had said he had 25,000 fighters who would "restore justice" and had alleged, without providing evidence, that the military had killed a huge number of fighters from his Wagner private militia in an airstrike, something the defense ministry denied.

Prigozhin's Wagner militia spearheaded the capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, and he has for months been openly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of incompetence and of denying Wagner ammunition and support.

On Friday, he had appeared to cross a new line in the feud, saying that Putin's stated rationale for invading Ukraine 16 months ago was based on lies concocted by the army's top brass.

"The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a marshal ... so that he could get a second 'Hero [of Russia]' medal," Prigozhin said in a video clip.

"The war wasn't needed to demilitarize or denazify Ukraine," he said, referring to Putin's justifications for the war.

In one of many overnight frenzied audio messages, he had then made clear that he was moving against the army.

"Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance," he said

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country," he said, promising to destroy any checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. He later said his men had been involved in clashes with regular soldiers and had shot down a helicopter.

A Russian security source told Reuters that Wagner fighters had also taken control of military facilities in the city of Voronezh, about 500 kilometers south of Moscow. Reuters could not independently confirm that assertion or many of the details provided by Prigozhin.

Russia's FSB security opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny and said his statements were "calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory."

It added: "We urge the ... fighters not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forcible actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and traitorous orders of Prigozhin, to take measures to detain him."

The state news agency TASS quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that all of Russia's main security services were reporting to Putin "round the clock."

Security was being tightened in Moscow, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on his Telegram channel.

In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden was briefed on the situation, a White House spokesperson said.

About 2 a.m. (2300 GMT), Prigozhin posted a message on the Telegram app saying his forces were in Rostov and ready to "go all the way" against the top brass and destroy anyone who stood in their way.

About 5 a.m. (0200 GMT), the administration of the Voronezh region, on the M-4 motorway between the regional capital Rostov-on-Don and Moscow, said on Telegram that a military convoy was on the highway and urged residents to avoid using it.

Unverified footage posted on social media showed a convoy of assorted military vehicles, including at least one tank and one armored vehicle on flatbed trucks. It was not clear where they were, or whether the covered trucks in the convoy contained fighters. Some of the vehicles were flying the Russian flag.

Footage on channels based in Rostov-on-Don showed armed men in military uniform skirting the regional police headquarters in the city on foot, as well as tanks positioned outside the headquarters of the Southern Military District.

Reuters confirmed the locations shown but could not determine when the footage was shot.

Prigozhin denied that he was trying to stage a military coup.

He said he had led his fighters out of Ukraine to Rostov, where a video posted by a pro-Wagner Telegram channel showed him, seemingly relaxed, conversing with two generals at the headquarters of Russia's huge Southern Military District.

The video showed him telling the generals: "We have arrived here, we want to receive the chief of the general staff and Shoigu. Unless they come, we'll be here, we'll blockade the city of Rostov and head for Moscow."

Russian local officials said a military convoy was indeed on the main motorway linking the southern part of European Russia with Moscow, and warned residents to avoid it.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev -- who was later to appear with Prigozhin in the video from Rostov-on-Don -- issued a video appeal asking Prigozhin to reconsider his actions.

"Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

An unverified video on a Telegram channel close to Wagner showed the purported scene of an airstrike against Wagner forces. It showed a forest where small fires were burning and trees appeared to have been broken by force. There appeared to be one body, but no more direct evidence of any attack.

It carried the caption: "A missile attack was launched on the camps of PMC [Private Military Company] Wagner. Many victims. According to eyewitnesses, the strike was delivered from the rear, that is, it was delivered by the military of the Russian Ministry of Defence."

The ministry said the allegation was false.

Article Source： Asia_Nikkei

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Owen Li

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday his Wagner fighters had crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine and were prepared to go "all the way" against Moscow's military, hours after the Kremlin accused him of armed mutiny.

As a long-running standoff between Prigozhin and the military top brass appeared to come to a head, Russia's FSB security service opened a criminal case against him, TASS news agency said. It called on the Wagner private military company forces to ignore his orders and arrest him.

Wagner fighters had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Telegram. He said he and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.

Prigozhin earlier said, without providing evidence, that Russia's military leadership had killed a huge number of his troops in an airstrike and vowed to punish them.

He said his actions were not a military coup. But in a frenzied series of audio messages, in which the sound of his voice sometimes varied and could not be independently verified, he appeared to suggest that his 25,000-strong militia was en route to oust the leadership of the defense ministry in Moscow.

Security was stepped up on Friday night at government buildings, transport facilities and other key locations in Moscow, TASS reported, citing a source at a security service.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was getting round-the-clock updates, TASS said, while the White House said it was monitoring the situation and would consult with allies.

Kyiv, meanwhile, said the major thrust in its counteroffensive against Moscow's invasion had yet to be launched. "The main blow is still to come," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television.

A top Ukrainian general reported "tangible successes" in advances in the south -- one of two main theaters of operations, along with eastern Ukraine.

The deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, told Wagner fighters to obey Putin, accept Moscow's commanders and return to their bases. He said political deterioration would play into the hands of Russia's enemies.

"I urge you to stop," Surovikin said in a video posted on Telegram, his right hand resting on a rifle.

The standoff, many of the details of which remained unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February last year.

Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow. Earlier on Friday, he appeared to cross a new line, saying the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation," was based on lies by the army's top brass.

Wagner led Russia's capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, Russia's biggest victory in 10 months, and Prigozhin has used its battlefield success to criticize the leadership of the defense ministry with seeming impunity -- until now.

For months, he has openly accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal in which he asked Prigozhin to reconsider his actions. "Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

On the ground in Ukraine, at least three people were killed in Russian attacks on Friday, including two who died after a trolley bus company came under fire in the city of Kherson, regional officials said.

Addressing the pace of the Ukrainian advances, several senior officials on Friday sent the clearest signal so far that the main part of the counteroffensive has not yet begun.

"I want to say that our main force has not been engaged in fighting yet, and we are now searching, probing for weak places in the enemy defenses. Everything is still ahead," the Guardian quoted Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, as saying in an interview with the British newspaper.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's "Tavria," or southern front, wrote on Telegram: "There have been tangible successes of the Defense Forces and in advances in the Tavria sector."

Tarnavskyi said Russian forces had lost hundreds of men and 51 military vehicles in the past 24 hours, including three tanks and 14 armored personnel carriers.

Although the advances Ukraine has reported this month are its first substantial gains on the battlefield for seven months, Ukrainian forces have yet to push to the main defensive lines that Russia has had months to prepare.

Article Source： Asia_Nikkei

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Justin

Central Bank

Forex

There is such a thing as the "gravity model of foreign trade", and if you are interested, the following Wiki link will tell you as much as you probably want to know.

As far as I am aware, there is no such thing as the "gravity model of FX", though I find it is a useful analogy for thinking about currencies in the Asia-Pacific region. Maybe I can try to popularise it...

If you use the analogy of the solar system to think about currencies, then the US dollar is clearly the sun, around which all other currencies revolve. But there are patches of space where other large celestial bodies, further away from the sun can have a significant influence, and here in the APAC region, the CNY is clearly that currency. Think of it as the gas-giant Jupiter if you want.

Much of the time, it is the ebb and flow of the USD that drives exchange rates in the region, and cross rates remain fairly steady. That isn't happening now, and the reason for this lies in the CNY.

Asian FX correlations with the CNY

Correlations With China’s Yuan are Weakening in Asia_1

One of these currencies is doing its own thing

Right now, China is bucking the global trend and cutting, not raising rates, reflecting what is a very mediocre and rather disappointing reopening following zero-Covid. We have written about this in a couple of notes recently which you can access here, and here. And one of the upshots of this is that the CNY has been weakening, with the People's Bank of China (PBoC) seemingly quite tolerant of such weakness with all policy levers being considered to help offset the economy's weakness.

Furthermore, what we see is that the gravitational pull - as described by the correlation coefficient - of the CNY is dragging down some local currencies with it, though the strength of this pull is weaker than in the past. This tends to confirm that what is happening to the CNY right now is more than just a generalised bout of USD strength taking all currencies along for the ride, but something more unique to China.

Two currencies do remain tightly bound to the Chinese yuan, namely the Japanese yen and the Malaysian Ringgit. Both are historically at the higher end of correlations, reflecting strong trade links and perhaps as a result, these two currencies remain in a tight orbit to the CNY.

Elsewhere, the links are very much weaker, or in the case of the Indonesian rupiah, actually negative. The IDR has benefited from a solid inflation-fighting period by Bank Indonesia (BI), a sustained current account surplus and an improved growth outlook, helped in part by its strong commodity endowments that mean it should benefit from the global energy transition and demand for electric vehicle batteries, which is becoming a new source of growth.

The correlation of the Vietnamese dong is also close to zero so far this year. The VND, however, is a heavily managed currency unit and has shown no signs of following the CNY during its recent slide. That is simply a local policy decision. And at some point, it may re-set.

Perhaps more surprisingly, the Taiwan dollar also seems to be shaking off any CNY influence and has been notably less responsive to movements in the CNY than past history would suggest. This may be due to portfolio inflows into Taiwan's stock market, as investors seem keen to buy almost any stock with even a vague hint of AI or semiconductors in their business description right now. Taiwan's stock market is up almost 22% year-to-date as a result, while China's CSI 300 is virtually flat in local currency terms, and down 4.1% in USD terms.

Looking ahead

At some stage, there is a chance that the Chinese government will come out with a broader package of support measures than it has done so far, and that will likely see the CNY rally. That said, we aren't looking for a bazooka from the authorities, more of a shot-gun approach of smaller measures, and believe that any uplift may be short-lived.

One-way traffic in the currency is not something the PBoC will want to see either, but we don't believe they will be totally averse to seeing the CNY weaken further if it does so in a controlled fashion, especially as we doubt that they are done with cutting rates just yet. Market forecasters are toying with near-term targets of USD/CNY 7.30 which looks plausible and in line with the 2022 highs. 7.40 would take the CNY into territory that it has not visited since 2007 and seems a step too far at this juncture, though not something we would rule out.

But even 7.30 could drag other Asian FX with it, with the JPY and MYR likely tracking the CNY most closely (subject to any JPY support that may follow a tweak to their yield curve control policy, which we think could happen in July) while the IDR (and even India's rupee) may partly shrug off any such move.

Source:ING

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Cohen

Commodity

The London Metal Exchange (LME) took emergency measures on March 8, 2022 to halt nickel trading as prices doubled to more than $100,000 a tonne.

The surge was blamed on short-covering by major nickel producer China's Tsingshan, owned by Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda, which held large short positions. Its buying helped spur the explosive price rise.

U.S.-based hedge fund Elliott Associates and market maker Jane Street Global Trading say the LME unlawfully cancelled trades made on March 8, 2022. They are seeking a combined $472 million damages.

The judicial review of the LME's decision to cancel trades started on Tuesday. If the exchange were found to be at fault, a second trial would be held to decide on compensation.

What is a clearing house?

A clearing house is a critical part of the financial market's basic plumbing, standing between the buyer and seller to take on the risk if one side of the trade defaults.

The world's biggest clearing houses handle trillions of dollars of transactions annually in stocks, bonds, derivatives and metals. They include LCH, part of the London Stock Exchange Group, ICE Clear and CME Clear.

Clearing houses have grown since the global financial crisis, as regulators have forced more financial transactions to be backed by clearers.

Critics have said clearing houses, rather than banks, have now become "too big to fail", meaning taxpayers might have to bail out one that went bust, in order to avoid contagion through their myriad connections across financial markets.

Clearers have had to reinforce their defences so they can cope if their two biggest members, usually banks, go bust at the same time.

Regulators also monitor the models clearers use to determine how much margin - a type of insurance payment - is needed. They want to insure the margin is not being pegged at too low a level just to attract business.

Global regulators have conducted stress tests on the world's five biggest clearing houses, which showed they had enough capital on hand to handle a significant increase in volatility.

Why does margin matter?

Members of a clearing house must post collateral such as treasuries or cash as "insurance" against potential losses or default in their positions. This margin payment moves along with the price of the asset or contract.

LCH increased margins on some government debt during the euro zone debt crisis. Some governments said this step was aggravating the crisis.

In stressed markets, however, it can be difficult for some participants to raise enough cash or collateral at short notice to meet the margin call.

After nickel prices surged, the Bank of England forced the LME's clearing arm to double its default fund.

In March this year , the BoE set out changes LME Clear had to make to address shortcomings in governance, management and risk management, and to increase the independence of how the unit is operated.

Can clearing houses go bust?

They can, but it is rare given there are several safety nets.

Actual failures include a clearing house in France in 1974, in Malaysia in 1983 and in Hong Kong in 1987.

But when LCH unwound Lehman Brothers' $9 trillion interest rate swaps portfolio during the global financial crisis, it used up only about a third of the margin at hand, meaning neither LCH nor its members suffered losses from closing Lehman's positions.

Nasdaq Clearing was fined about $36 million pounds over the default of a Norwegian power trader Einar Aas in 2018 which showed deficiencies in the clearer's operations.

But although the margin on hand was too little at that time, the remaining loss was covered by tapping Nasdaq Clearing's own capital and the clearers default fund, to which all members had contributed.

Source: Reuters

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Damon

Commodity

Hedge fund Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading are suing the London Metal Exchange for $472 million after the LME cancelled nickel trades on March 8, 2022 when prices soared to record highs above $100,000 a tonne in chaotic trade.

The nickel trading debacle was the biggest crisis in decades to hit the world's oldest metals forum. Suspending trade on March 8 last year left consumers and producers without key benchmark prices and damaged the 145-year-old LME's reputation.

The judicial review of the LME's decision to cancel trades started on Tuesday. If the exchange is found to be at fault, a second trial would be held to decide on compensation.

The LME is arguing it had both the power and duty to cancel trades because $19.7 billion of margin calls would otherwise have led to the bankruptcy of multiple clearing members and created systemic market risk.

Following are details about how margin calls work and what would happen in the event of default by an LME member.

How do margin calls work?

Margin calls are deposits of cash or collateral with the exchange's clearing house, LME Clear, to cover potential losses if a member defaults.

Initial margin is a percentage of the purchase price that members must deposit with LME Clear for their trades.

Variation margin is the difference between the price originally bought or sold at and the current market price or closing price. As prices move up or down the variation margin has to be topped up or cash is returned.

LME Clear calls for variation margin every hour during the day, to be settled within an hour. It also calls for variation margin at the close of business, to be settled by 0900 London time the next working day.

What happened?

Short position holders sell metal contracts on the LME and long positions buy.

Tsingshan Holding Group, China's largest private stainless steel producer, could not immediately get the cash to meet margin calls on a large short position when nickel prices soared in early March last year.

Tsingshan does not trade directly on the LME as it is not a member.

Its short position would have been built via an LME member using over the counter (OTC) trades, bi-lateral agreements between LME members and their clients.

Members trading with Tsingshan would have held long positions, which can be netted off against other client positions or hedged by selling contracts on the LME, on which they would pay margin calls.

Tsingshan would have had a credit line with members to pay its margins. Once that credit was exhausted, members would have asked for cash.

What happens in a default?

In the event of a member default, LME Clear takes over the member's portfolio and sells it.

Any losses are initially offset against margins paid by the defaulter, then by LME Clear's default fund.

Separately, LME Clear would contribute an additional 25% of its regulatory capital in the event of a default to cover the losses.

If there is not enough money in the default fund, the clearing house and members must keep topping up the fund until all losses are covered.

Source: Mining

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Justin

Bond

Transitioning to net-zero carbon emissions requires an economic overhaul. Since there is a sizable gap between where we are and where we hope to be to complete the green transformation, this will require fundamental change in four major ways.

First, the supply of renewable energy must be expanded. Second, electrification of energy use needs to become more widespread. Third, green hydrogen or ammonia should be deployed at scale to decarbonise transportation and industrial processes where electrification may not be feasible. And fourth, the remaining part of carbon usage – even after these possibilities and other carbon-free options are exhausted – must be offset by negative emissions.

The estimated amount of capital expenditure necessary to bridge the gap is considerable, but a framework for financing climate transition would enable financial institutions to effectively do this.

Transition finance is not a substandard category of green finance. Rather, it is finance intended for recognising the magnitude of necessary change, designing time-bound pathways for greening the transition and overcoming the hurdles to get there. One could argue that green finance is a subcategory of transition finance, not the other way around.

The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero categorises transition finance, or finance to support real-economy emissions reduction, in four groups: climate solutions, aligned, aligning and managed phaseout. The first two are typically known as green finance.

Following the similar concept, the Japanese government has established its own framework, underpinned by climate transition finance guidelines and decarbonisation roadmaps for 10 hard-to-abate sectors including steel, chemicals and cement. The guidelines illustrate the need for financiers and investors to assess borrowers’ and investees’ transition strategies – which must contain science-based and environmentally material carbon emissions reduction targets and pathways – together with their governance for monitoring the progress of their transition plan.

The sectoral roadmaps provide a reference for setting carbon emissions reduction targets and pathways. This is achieved by establishing a timeframe for the technological advance and adoption necessary for companies in hard-to-abate sectors to reduce carbon emissions over the next few decades to reach net zero by 2050. This framework does not rely on green taxonomies in ensuring the credibility of pathways because a threshold mechanism associated with taxonomies tends to make a judgement binary. A set of data on the potential for technologies to reduce carbon emissions can provide a more granular picture in designing pathways.

Transition finance is considered more vulnerable to greenwashing as it allows financing to not-yet-green but greening entities or activities. This is why a credible transition plan is important. That said, for certain hard-to-abate entities or activities, a transition plan is likely to contain untested but potentially impactful low-carbon or zero-carbon technologies to be developed in coming years.

This uncertainty is a concern. But Japan’s framework is not designed to deny such an uncertain prospect outright. To guardrail the path for future unproven and not-yet-commercialised technologies, the sectoral roadmaps outline a plan for research, development and commercialisation of decarbonisation technologies within certain timeframes.

Even technologies outside the roadmaps will be permitted in Japan’s transition finance framework as long as financiers or investors are convinced through dialogue with a borrower or investee. Levels of conviction may differ from one financier or investor to another, so imposing an identical action on each will be a mistake. The diversity of judgement must be retrained in the marketplace to chart the best course through uncertainty.