Wagner fighters will not face any action: Kremlin

Glendon

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Spokesperson Peskov declines to elaborate on concessions made to warlord Prigozhin

Wagner fighters will not face any action: Kremlin_1

A fighter of Wagner private mercenary group flashes a victory sign in a street near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia on June 24.

MOSCOW (Reuters) -- Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will move to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin had led against Russia's military leadership, the Kremlin said on Saturday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Lukashenko had offered to mediate, with Russian President Vladimir Putin's agreement, because he had known Prigozhin personally for around 20 years.

Peskov said the criminal case that had been opened against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and that the Wagner fighters who had taken part in his "march for justice" would not face any action, in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

Fighters who had not taken part would sign contracts with the Defence Ministry, which has been seeking to bring all autonomous volunteer forces under its control by July 1.

Although Putin had earlier vowed to punish those who participated in the mutiny, Peskov said the agreement had had the "higher goal" of avoiding confrontation and bloodshed.

Peskov declined to say whether any concessions had been made to Prigozhin, other than guarantees of safety for him -- something he said Putin had given his word to vouch for -- and for Prigozhin's men, to persuade him to withdraw all his forces.

He called the events of the day "tragic".

"There are no more conditions that I can tell you about," said Peskov.

Prigozhin had earlier demanded that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov be handed over to him.

Asked if there would be personnel changes in the Russian Defence Ministry as a result of the deal, Peskov said:

"These matters are the sole prerogative and within the competence of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) in accordance with the constitution of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it is unlikely that these topics could have been discussed in the course of the above-mentioned contacts".

Article Source： Asia_Nikkei

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Justin

Economic

In Berlin, OMFIF participated in a series of bilateral discussions with representatives from the government, banking sector and industry. Despite persistent inflation, continued monetary tightening and a wobbly global banking sector, the outlook on Germany’s financial conditions and stability seemed relatively sanguine. The future of the country’s industrial base is the present focus in political and economic spheres, as the economy grapples with increased energy prices, a fragmented global economy and a shrinking labour market.

Transitioning to a sustainable and sovereign energy supply is prime concern

After getting burned due to the European energy crisis last year spurred by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy transition is the top priority for Germany. For decades, cheap gas imports fuelled the country’s industrial base. But since the war, the true cost of Russian gas is coming to light: ‘Germany never priced in the negative externalities into the cost of Russian energy imports,’ one official explained. This includes Russia’s lack of regulation and an oftentimes negligent system regarding environmental degradation.

As the country speeds up its exit from coal and nuclear energy, this is estimated to cost approximately €600bn. While much of this must come from the private sector, there was agreement that this cannot be done solely via banking financing. Most finance in Germany is provided by banks, but German (and European) capital markets need to develop in order to allocate the level of capital needed to facilitate the energy transition.

At present, the investment environment in Germany is difficult for foreign investors, who are competing with ‘local, cheap and public money’, according to one institutional investor. Since the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act and its subsidy scheme for green infrastructure, there is competition with the US for capital for sustainable project financing.

Though the energy transition is a key imperative for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ Social Democratic Party and the Greens, the Free Democrats have indicated that they will be taking a harder stance on fiscal expansion. Internal strife within the coalition may hinder progression of the net-zero agenda.

Increasing wariness over China

On the geopolitical front, one industry representative explained that ‘we are preparing for a divided world’. They stated that they are working as quickly as possible to become less dependent and diversify away from China. While Germany does not have the same level of dependency on China as the country had on Russian gas, Germany imports around 90% of its critical raw materials from China. Many of these commodities are essential to produce electric cars and wind turbines.

Unlike the importance of gas exports to the Russian economy, Germany’s share of China’s raw material exports is negligible. The power imbalance here has led to uneasiness for both German policy-makers and industry. One industry representative explained their strategy to diversify away from Chinese raw materials by investing in Canada, Chile and Australia and other countries, ‘but it will take years to derisk’.

The consensus seemed to be that while German industrial production will not be fully repatriating from China. They are anticipating a strategic bifurcation of production streams, described by one representative as ‘East versus West’. Much of the supply chain may remain in China. But strategic and critically important technologies – including high-tech, software and semiconductors – will be ‘nearshored’ to western countries and political allies.

Labour shortages increasingly disruptive to German economy

A rapidly ageing population has led to record-high vacancy rates in Germany, which will drag on long-term growth. Those we spoke with remarked that shortages are not due to the price sensitivity of labour, but rather that ‘there is a structural lack of labour in the Germany economy’.

This chimes with the findings of an industry survey conducted by the Federation of German Industries in June. Labour costs and shortages of skilled workers was the number one challenge to business operations among 200 German small- and medium-sized enterprises, as listed by 76% of respondents. Bureaucracy was listed by 37%, making it the third most common challenge after energy and raw materials costs (62%).

To address the labour market challenges, the government plans to overhaul Germany’s immigration policy. A new legislative proposal (the Skilled Immigration Act) has been put forth by the ministries of labour and the interior. The new policy would seek to attract more non-EU workers to fill the generational gap among a fast ageing population. The proposal has received approval from the cabinet and must now be approved by both houses of parliament before coming into force.

Source:Taylor Pearce

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Thomas

Bond

China's Premier Li Qiang and dozens of world leaders will meet in Paris on Thursday and Friday to discuss ways to help low-income countries manage their debt burdens and free up funding for climate financing.

As the world's largest bilateral creditor, China is central to talks on making tangible progress in providing debt relief to Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia and Ghana through the Group of 20-led "Common Framework."

What is the common framework?

The Common Framework was set up by the G-20 in late 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic as an initiative to expedite and simplify the process of getting indebted countries back onto their feet.

The aim was to bring together big creditors like China and the traditional group of developed creditor nations, known as the Paris Club, to negotiate restructuring plans with defaulters.

But nearly three years later, it is yet to provide any relief, partly due to disagreements between the rich countries and China, which over the past decade has emerged as a major international creditor.

What is China's position on debt restructuring?

China wants multilateral lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to absorb some of the losses, which those institutions and many developed nations, notably the United States, are resisting.

The U.S. and European governments have argued that acceding to Beijing's demand would be tantamount to a bailout for China.

A case in point is Zambia, which owes $6 billion to China and has been locked in default for almost three years. The southern African country has been unable to secure further loans from the IMF because Beijing insists multilateral development lenders, which don't usually take haircuts, should participate in debt relief.

The Common Framework requires debtor countries to secure restructuring assurances from any bilateral lenders first and commercial and multilateral lenders second - to Beijing's dismay.

China continues to negotiate with debtor nations on a bilateral basis, urging that debt disposal be dealt with on a "case-by-case" basis despite the Common Framework's aim to standardise access to debt relief.

China's central bank chief Yi Gang reiterated "China is willing to work with all parties to implement the Common Framework for debt disposal," at a gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors at the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington in April.

"Official bilateral loans related to China only account for less than 5% of Ghana's external debt," Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a press conference in Beijing in March, when asked whether China would agree to restructure the $1.9 billion Ghana owes it.

"We call on multilateral financial institutions and commercial lenders, who are the main creditors for developing countries, to participate in developing countries' debt relief efforts," Mao said.

why is China willing to write off some debts but not others?

In January, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang announced a partial and undisclosed cancellation of the $13.7 billion that Ethiopia has borrowed from China since 2000 while visiting Addis Ababa.

And last August, China waived 23 interest-free loans to 17 African states that had expired at the end of 2021.

China's interest-free loans are funded from its foreign aid budget and are easier to waive.

Interest-free loans account for less than 5% of the $843 billion in Chinese loan commitments to 165 governments globally between 2000 and 2017, according to AidData.

What support is China offering?

In early May, China attended the first meeting of Sri Lanka's creditor nations only as an observer. Japan, India and France initiated the discussions despite China being Sri Lanka's largest bilateral lender, with the island nation owing Chinese lenders $7.4 billion at the end of 2021.

In discussions over Ghana later in May, China took its involvement further and agreed to co-chair a committee of Ghana's official creditors alongside France.

And in Zambia's case, "China has always taken Zambia's debt issues seriously and will jointly work for a better solution," according to Wang Wenbin, another Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

What next?

In Paris, analysts expect China to continue to voice support for the Common Framework but for debt relief to be dispensed "case-by-case".

The last time global policymakers met to discuss the Common Framework in Washington, China proposed the IMF should speed up and improve information sharing on debt sustainability analyses.

China will need more coaxing before it agrees to haircuts.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Central Bank

Strong Start to 2023

Although many economists were firmly in the recession camp at the close of 2022, Commonwealth’s Investment Management team foresaw a Goldilocks economy (i.e., an ideal state with full employment, economic stability, and stable growth) and believed there were tailwinds for growth.

Indeed, we did see a very strong first half. And there’s reason to believe that the tailwinds will continue to blow through year-end, specifically those related to inflation, employment, and the consumer.

Inflation: Prices Stabilizing

Inflation was a contributing factor to consumer and investor skepticism in 2022. But over the past 12 months, it has continued to moderate toward the Fed’s mandate of 2 percent (see chart below). Prices on common expenditure areas like butter, milk, and gasoline have declined 20 percent, 34 percent, and 36 percent, respectively, over the past year.

2023 Midyear Outlook: Is the Economy Half Empty or Half Full?_1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

Overall, inflationary pressures should continue to moderate in the coming quarters as supply-demand dynamics balance. The result should be a reprieve for Americans at the pump, grocery stores, and elsewhere, ultimately putting more money back in the consumer’s pocket.

Employment: Labor Demand and Wages Growing

Over the past 12 months, the economy has added 4 million jobs, with approximately 40 percent of those gains occurring in the first five months of 2023 (see chart below). The mismatch between labor demand and supply is the largest on record, with 10 million job openings compared to only 5.7 million unemployed.

2023 Midyear Outlook: Is the Economy Half Empty or Half Full?_2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

This strong demand for labor has resulted in above-average wage growth, especially for those in lower-skilled occupations (see chart below). After years of lackluster wage gains, many individuals are now seeing more dollars in every paycheck, which is contributing to the spending patterns experienced as of late.

2023 Midyear Outlook: Is the Economy Half Empty or Half Full?_3

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Haver Analytics

Consumers: Spending Rising, Savings Falling

With more dollars in every paycheck, consumers are spending. Plus, they’re doing so at a pace that’s above historical norms, as evidenced by the decline in the personal saving rate in recent periods. Since the pandemic, Americans have been on a spending spree, which began with purchases on goods and has since moved toward services like leisure, travel, and hospitality.

2023 Midyear Outlook: Is the Economy Half Empty or Half Full?_4

Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Haver Analytics

The surge in spending bodes well for an economy that is approximately two-thirds consumption. Unless there’s a significant uptick in the savings rate in the coming months coupled with a decline in consumer confidence, it’s reasonable to assume that the economy will stay on track as it did in the first half of 2023.

Trending Toward Half Full

Heading into the year, many believed the economy was half empty, with the likelihood of recession right around the corner. With the benefit of hindsight, however, we know that it was half full, following a 3.9 percent increase in GDP in the first quarter and strong equity gains year-to-date. There’s reason to believe that the trend will continue.

The job creation rate in the past six months is greater than any six-month period in the decade before the pandemic. Wages are following suit. Americans are working more, earning more, and spending their hard-earned dollars, which is a win-win from an economic perspective. With a significant breakdown in confidence between now and the end of the year being an unlikely scenario, the positive momentum should continue.

Source: Peter Essele

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Devin

Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines.

The appointment of U.S.-trained banker Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead the bank boosted expectations that it would rapidly raise rates to unravel years of unorthodox policies as quickly as possible.

But the 650 basis point hike - to 15% - was well below the median rate expectation in a Reuters poll of a rise to 21%, leaving some fretting that Erkan might have limited room to aggressively tackle inflation.

"They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. "Whether it's because they have political constraints, or they're afraid for the banking system, it's not great. It's not a great message."

Newly re-elected President Tayyip Erdogan, a self-described enemy of high interest rates, for years directed a heavily managed economic system, with a tightly controlled lira, rate cuts in the face of galloping inflation and plentiful credit for local borrowers.

Amidst tumbling reserves and fleeing investors, his choice of Erkan at the central bank, and investor darling Mehmet Simsek as finance minister, prompted bets for a quick turnaround to unravel some of these policies.

But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course.

"They look less credible now," Eric Fine, portfolio manager of emerging market debt at VanEck, said of the central bank, adding: "They need to hike rates to whatever level prevents the need for currency interventions using reserves. They haven't."

Since the decision, Turkey's lira hit a fresh record low against the U.S. dollar, bringing its losses this year to nearly 23%. The country's international bonds came under pressure.

Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million.

"For now, it's not enough, probably, for long-term investors. Because of the magnitude of some of the problems in the economy," said Marek Drimal, a lead strategist at Societe Generale.

Caution And Tempered Disappointment

Still, many, including Drimal, saw positive signs, and noted that even Simsek had repeatedly said that gradual rate moves were move likely.

Simsek also promised predictable, market-based economic policies and an inflation-targeting model would enable capital inflows.

"I think investor disappointment should be tempered," said Dan Wood, head of emerging market debt at William Blair, adding that the bank also signalled that it will keep hiking rates until inflation improved.

"It is clearly positive that a return to a more orthodox economic policy has been signalled."

The associate director of ratings agency Scope Ratings and a sovereign analyst at ratings agency Fitch also said the hike itself was positive - but the core question would be whether Erdogan allows Erkan to stay the course with continued rises.

"I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

"The market is very cautious - so to regain confidence, that will take a long time. I would think that you would need to maintain tight policy for a considerable amount of time for significant, more long-term inflows to come in."

Source: Devidiscourse

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Ukadike Micheal

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Long at odds with Russia’s military leaders in the war in Ukraine, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin took his feud to a new level Friday when he leveled accusations that his fighters had been struck and vowing revenge.

The threat, made over his official Telegram channel, sparked what appeared to be a crisis in Russia.

The country’s security service FSB called on Prigozhin’s own Wagner Group private army to refuse orders and detain him, and it opened a criminal investigation for “organizing an armed rebellion, the prosecutor general’s office said.

Russian Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev on video from broadcaster RBK called it a stab in the back, calling it “a coup d’état.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed, and “necessary measures are being taken,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

What is the Wagner Group?

Called by Russia a “private military company” the Wagner Group is called a proxy force by U.S. officials and others, while others label it a mercenary group.

It was founded in 2014, and is owned by Prigozhin, a 61-year-old who has been previously known as “Putin’s chef” for catering state events with his catering business.

In December, the U.S. believed that the Wagner Group had an estimated 50,000 personnel inside Ukraine — around 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts from Russian prisons, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.

Russia has denied the involvement of the Wagner Group in its official military operations, but the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies says it is often directly connected to the Russian state. It played a role in Russia’s operations in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015, it said.

“Instead of using the Russian narrative, according to which Wagner is a private military company, Wagner should be viewed as a classic proxy organization,” it said.

Worldwide efforts

The Wagner Group has also been involved in other parts of the world, including Africa.

The Wagner Group has operated in the civil conflict in Libya, and Russia sent it military equipment including fighter aircraft and armored vehicles, so that Russia could get a foothold in the country, the U.S. Department of Defense said in 2020.

Wagner Group was also sent to Central African Republic in its civil war, where the group was accused of executing civilians, attacking U.N. peacekeepers and targeting predominantly Muslim communities.

Senior Western diplomats have said that the Wagner Group took control of a gold mine there. Human Rights Watch said in a report that suspected Wagner Group forces have committed atrocities, including executing unarmed men.

The U.S. in January designated the Wagner Group a transnational criminal organization. In Africa, it destabilized countries committed “widespread human rights abuses and extorting natural resources from their people,” the U.S. Treasury Department said then in imposing sanctions.

The war in Ukraine has helped the Wagner Group grow in influence, Kirby, the U.S. National Security Council spokesman, has said.

“His influence is expanding. Wagner’s independence from the Russian Defense Ministry has, is only increased and elevated over the course of the 10 months of this war,” Kirby said at the December briefing.

The Russian military has been relying on Wagner fighters in Ukraine, and in some cases, Russia’s military officials have been subordinate to the commands of the Wagner Group, he said.

Prigozhin vows retaliation

Prigozhin has accused Russia’s military leadership of incompetence in Ukraine, but on Friday he publicly accused Russia’s military leadership of striking his forces. He claimed there was a missile attack at its rear camps.

Prigozhin said, without providing evidence, that Russia’s military leadership was responsible for the deaths of 2,000 fighters.

“Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance,” Prigozhin said in a series of audio messages on his official Telegram channel.

Russia’s FSB security service responded by starting a criminal case against him for what it said was a call for an armed rebellion.

The FSB said that “his actions are a ‘stab in the back’ of Russian servicemen” and called on Wagner fighters to refuse orders and take Prigozhin into custody. Russia denies Prigozhin’s claims.

Security was increased in Moscow, Russian state news agency TASS reported, and video distributed by the Reuters news agency showed military vehicles near Russia’s Parliament early Saturday local time.

Prigozhin denied it was an armed rebellion, but called it “a march of justice.”

He claimed that his forces entered Russia, and that “Right now we are entering Rostov,” referring to a city in the south of Russia.

Source：CNBC

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Michelle

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush what he called an armed mutiny after rebellious mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday he had taken control of a southern city as part of an attempt to oust the military leadership.

The dramatic turn, with many details unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine -- which he called a "special military operation" -- in February last year.

In a televised address, Putin said that "excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason," and called the mutiny a "stab in the back."

"It is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to defend the Fatherland against such a threat will be harsh."

"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people," Putin said.

Prigozhin had demanded that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, whom he has pledged to oust over what he says is their disastrous leadership of the war against Ukraine, come to see him in Rostov, a city near the Ukrainian border that he said he had seized control of.

He had said he had 25,000 fighters who would "restore justice" and had alleged, without providing evidence, that the military had killed a huge number of fighters from his Wagner private militia in an airstrike, something the defense ministry denied.

Prigozhin's Wagner militia spearheaded the capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, and he has for months been openly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of incompetence and of denying Wagner ammunition and support.

On Friday, he had appeared to cross a new line in the feud, saying that Putin's stated rationale for invading Ukraine 16 months ago was based on lies concocted by the army's top brass.

"The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a marshal ... so that he could get a second 'Hero [of Russia]' medal," Prigozhin said in a video clip.

"The war wasn't needed to demilitarize or denazify Ukraine," he said, referring to Putin's justifications for the war.

In one of many overnight frenzied audio messages, he had then made clear that he was moving against the army.

"Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance," he said

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country," he said, promising to destroy any checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. He later said his men had been involved in clashes with regular soldiers and had shot down a helicopter.

A Russian security source told Reuters that Wagner fighters had also taken control of military facilities in the city of Voronezh, about 500 kilometers south of Moscow. Reuters could not independently confirm that assertion or many of the details provided by Prigozhin.

Russia's FSB security opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny and said his statements were "calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory."

It added: "We urge the ... fighters not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forcible actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and traitorous orders of Prigozhin, to take measures to detain him."

The state news agency TASS quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that all of Russia's main security services were reporting to Putin "round the clock."

Security was being tightened in Moscow, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on his Telegram channel.

In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden was briefed on the situation, a White House spokesperson said.

About 2 a.m. (2300 GMT), Prigozhin posted a message on the Telegram app saying his forces were in Rostov and ready to "go all the way" against the top brass and destroy anyone who stood in their way.

About 5 a.m. (0200 GMT), the administration of the Voronezh region, on the M-4 motorway between the regional capital Rostov-on-Don and Moscow, said on Telegram that a military convoy was on the highway and urged residents to avoid using it.

Unverified footage posted on social media showed a convoy of assorted military vehicles, including at least one tank and one armored vehicle on flatbed trucks. It was not clear where they were, or whether the covered trucks in the convoy contained fighters. Some of the vehicles were flying the Russian flag.

Footage on channels based in Rostov-on-Don showed armed men in military uniform skirting the regional police headquarters in the city on foot, as well as tanks positioned outside the headquarters of the Southern Military District.

Reuters confirmed the locations shown but could not determine when the footage was shot.

Prigozhin denied that he was trying to stage a military coup.

He said he had led his fighters out of Ukraine to Rostov, where a video posted by a pro-Wagner Telegram channel showed him, seemingly relaxed, conversing with two generals at the headquarters of Russia's huge Southern Military District.

The video showed him telling the generals: "We have arrived here, we want to receive the chief of the general staff and Shoigu. Unless they come, we'll be here, we'll blockade the city of Rostov and head for Moscow."

Russian local officials said a military convoy was indeed on the main motorway linking the southern part of European Russia with Moscow, and warned residents to avoid it.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev -- who was later to appear with Prigozhin in the video from Rostov-on-Don -- issued a video appeal asking Prigozhin to reconsider his actions.

"Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

An unverified video on a Telegram channel close to Wagner showed the purported scene of an airstrike against Wagner forces. It showed a forest where small fires were burning and trees appeared to have been broken by force. There appeared to be one body, but no more direct evidence of any attack.

It carried the caption: "A missile attack was launched on the camps of PMC [Private Military Company] Wagner. Many victims. According to eyewitnesses, the strike was delivered from the rear, that is, it was delivered by the military of the Russian Ministry of Defence."

The ministry said the allegation was false.