Existing Home Sales End 2025 With A Strong Beat, As Prices Ease Further

Economic

Summary:

Sales of previously owned homes in December rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sales of previously owned homes in December rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was higher than analysts' expectations for a gain of 2%. Sales were 1.4% higher than a year earlier.

For the full year, there were 4.06 million existing home sales, unchanged from 2024.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years. Sales increased in all regions month-over-month and were higher annually in the Northeast and Midwest, but lower in the South and West.

This count is based on closings, so sales contracts likely signed in October and November, when mortgage rates weren't moving much. The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hovered between 6.2% and 6.3% during that time. That rate, however, was lower than it was last spring and summer, when it was closer to 7%.

"2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for The Realtors, in a release. "However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth."

Inventory was the big headline of the monthly report. There were 1.18 million units available for sale at the end of December, down 18% from November, although 3.5% higher year-over-year.

With stronger sales, that dropped the supply to just 3.3 months, which is considered quite lean. Low supply kept prices in positive territory, although just barely.

The median price of a home sold in December was $405,400, up 0.4% annually and the 30th straight month of annual gains. The increase, however, was smaller than the 1.2% gain in November.

"With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February," Yun added.

Source: CNBC

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Devin

Economic

WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales accelerated in December, boosted by lower mortgage rates and slow growth in house prices.

Home sales jumped 5.1% last month to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would rise to a rate of 4.21 million units. Home sales increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis.

"In the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth," Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist, said in a statement. "Inventory levels remain tight, with fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes."

Mortgage rates dropped in 2025 though they remain considerably higher than they were three years ago. President Donald Trump last week ordered the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to purchase $200 billion of bonds issued by the two companies in a bid to bring down mortgage rates.

Analysts expect the mortgage purchases to have a modest impact. Mortgage rates, which track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, remain elevated.

The inventory of existing homes rose 3.5% from a year ago to 1.18 million units in December. At December's sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.2 months a year ago.

The median existing home price last month increased 0.4% from a year ago to $405,400. Trump also has proposed banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes to improve affordability.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Economic

Yesterday’s Commentary noted the recent strength in transportation stocks. For example, the transportation ETF (XTN) has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 9% over the last 25 trading days. The leading stocks within the ETF over this period include. ARCB (trucking), MATX (shipping), WERN (freight shipping), and FedEx (shipping).

Some of the recent gains are catch-up, as the sector has generally underperformed for much of the past two years. However, expectations for a reflationary economic resurgence are benefiting this economically sensitive sector.

While investor expectations for transportation stocks are bullish, the graphs below raise questions about the recent strength. For instance, heavy truck sales (blue) are nearing pandemic lows, set when the economy was effectively shut down. Moreover, TruckClub, a magazine for the trucking industry, recently published an article entitled “Freight Volumes Drop Again in 2025, Are We Entering a New Recession Cycle for Trucking?”

If demand were increasing, one would expect demand for heavy-weight trucks to increase as well. Similarly, the Cass Freight Index, which measures the volume of freight shipments and expenditures across multiple transportation modes in North America, has been steadily declining.

Are the transportation stocks getting ahead of themselves, or are the indexes below on the verge of turning higher? We presume investor rotations are playing a big hand in the outperformance of the transportation sector. But if the economy is strong in 2026, the indexes should turn higher, supporting recent performance in transportation stocks.

Transportation Stocks Are at Odds With Truck Sales_1

CPI Inflation

CPI and Core CPI came in as expected at +0.3% and +0.2%. Following last month’s unexpectedly low inflation data, many on Wall Street expected yesterday’s CPI data to exceed expectations, effectively correcting the prior months’ readings. That didn’t happen. As shown below, core CPI, the Fed’s preferred measure of CPI, is now at its lowest level since 2021 and declining, albeit slowly.

The bond market was little moved by the data. This suggests the market is comfortable, given recent employment data and the CPI print, in pricing in a slim chance of a Fed rate cut on January 28 and a 50/50 chance of a cut by mid-year.

Transportation Stocks Are at Odds With Truck Sales_2

JPM Earnings And Economic Outlook

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season by largely beating estimates. Revenues and earnings per share exceeded forecasts. The only concern in their announcement was their investment-banking revenues, including underwriting and merger consulting. Revenue from this segment was decently below their own estimates released just last month.

Equity capital market fees declined sharply by over 15%, and debt underwriting revenues were softer than expected. Given that JPM is the largest bank in the US and a global banking powerhouse, this suggests that corporations relied less on capital markets for financing than is typical.

Given the substantial surge in AI-related spending and projections of solid economic growth, we should not expect this segment to remain weak. Regarding the economy, JPM’s CEO Jamie Dimon stated:

The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time

Source: investing

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Dark Current

Data Interpretation

Commodity

Political

Economic

Energy

Daily News

China's crude oil imports from Venezuela are set to plummet in February, crippled by a month-long U.S. blockade that has effectively trapped tankers in Venezuelan waters. The disruption marks a dramatic halt to a major global energy trade route.

February Shipments Plummet to a Fraction of 2025 Levels

Deliveries of crude and fuel oil from Venezuela to China this month are estimated to fall to just 166,000 barrels per day (bpd). This sharp decline is based on the mere 5 million barrels of Venezuelan oil that have successfully departed the country in recent weeks.

To put this into perspective, internal documents from Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, show that combined exports to China averaged approximately 642,000 bpd throughout 2025.

How the US "Oil Quarantine" is Disrupting Shipments

The drastic reduction in oil flow is a direct result of U.S. naval operations. Since mid-December, U.S. forces have seized at least five tankers originating from Venezuela. In response, many other vessels have been forced to turn back to Venezuelan ports to avoid a similar fate.

This "oil quarantine" intensified around the January 3 capture of Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, leaving PDVSA unable to execute oil shipments to its customers in Asia.

Currently, Chevron is the only Western oil major with authorization from the U.S. Treasury to operate in Venezuela, but its activities are limited to shipping crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast. As a result, Venezuelan shipments to Asia, and particularly to its top customer China, have ground to a halt.

Shifting Market: Tighter Discounts and New Traders

Beyond the blockade, economic factors are also dampening China's appetite for Venezuelan crude. Chinese buyers have scaled back purchases as the price advantage has narrowed. The discount for Venezuela's flagship Merey crude against the Brent benchmark has shrunk from $15 per barrel last month to $13 per barrel.

In a significant market shift, trading giants Trafigura and Vitol are now stepping in to manage the sale of Venezuelan oil at the request of the U.S. government. Following a meeting between oil executives and U.S. President Donald Trump, Trafigura confirmed it would provide logistical and marketing services.

Trade sources report that both Vitol and Trafigura are already offering Venezuelan crude to refiners in China and India for delivery in March, signaling a new, highly managed phase for the country's oil exports.

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Justin

Political

Economic

U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces new nutrition policies during a press conference at the Department of Health and Human Services in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 8, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

· States challenge HHS grant conditions as unlawful

· Lawsuit claims HHS lacks authority to impose conditions

· Policy was adopted following executive order by President Trump

Twelve Democratic state attorneys general sued on Tuesday seeking to block the Trump administration from withholding hundreds of billions of dollars in funding from them, hospitals and universities unless they comply with new conditions they say would force them to discriminate against transgender Americans.

The state attorneys general, including from New York and California, in the lawsuit challenged conditions U.S. health agencies imposed on grants after Republican President Donald Trump signed an executive order last year instructing them to end the funding of "gender ideology." The suit was filed in federal court in Providence, Rhode Island.

That order directed the government to recognize only two sexes - male and female - and sought to undo what it described as the "misapplication" of laws prohibiting sex discrimination to protect transgender people by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

The states say the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' policy applies retroactively rather than only to new grants, exposing funding recipients to potential grant terminations, repayment demands, and civil and criminal penalties.

"This policy threatens healthcare for families, life-saving research, and education programs that help young people thrive in favor of denying the dignity and existence of transgender people," New York Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat who is leading the lawsuit, said in a statement.

HHS, which has also sought to restrict gender-affirming care for transgender youth, referred a request for comment to the White House.

"The administration is committed to using every lever of executive power to prevent federal funds from being dispensed towards child mutilation," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.

The lawsuit alleges that HHS under the leadership of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has sought to shoehorn Trump's executive order into Title IX -- the landmark civil rights law barring sex discrimination in federally funded education programs -- by imposing retroactive conditions on grants.

Agencies within HHS did so by imposing conditions on grants that would require recipients to certify compliance with Title IX protections, which were characterized as "including the requirements" of Trump's executive order.

The agencies that have adopted the funding condition in recent months include the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the National Institutes of Health.

The lawsuit argues HHS lacks the authority to impose those conditions, has infringed on Congress' power over spending under the U.S. Constitution, and has not provided a reasoned explanation for the change in how it interprets Title IX.

Other states included in the case were Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Source: Reuters

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George Anderson

Data Interpretation

Bond

Economic

Central Bank

Traders' Opinions

UK government bond yields have dropped to their lowest point since December 2024, driven by a combination of strong investor demand for new debt and mounting evidence of a slowing economy.

The yield on the 10-year UK government bond, or gilt, fell by four basis points to 4.36% on Wednesday, a more significant move than seen in its European counterparts. The rally gained momentum after a successful auction of £4.5 billion in 10-year notes, which was oversubscribed by more than 3.2 times, signaling robust appetite from investors.

Economic Headwinds Fuel Easing Bets

The rally in UK bonds is underpinned by growing expectations that the Bank of England will pursue monetary easing as the nation's inflation and labor markets show signs of cooling.

A recent survey indicated that UK employers scaled back hiring again in December, adding to policymakers' concerns about a weakening jobs market. This follows slower-than-expected inflation data in November, together prompting money markets to increase wagers on future interest-rate cuts.

Markets Price In Rate Cuts

The financial markets are now actively anticipating policy changes from the Bank of England. Swap markets are currently implying nearly two quarter-point interest rate reductions by the end of the year. The consensus suggests the first of these cuts will be delivered within the first half of this year.

This outlook is further supported by a more cautious fiscal stance from the UK government and a strategic shift by the nation's Debt Management Office to focus debt sales on shorter-maturity bonds.

Analyst View: Gilts a "Preferred Long"

According to Jamie Searle, a strategist at Citigroup Inc., gilts are "a preferred long for 2026." He points to two primary factors supporting this view:

• Greater scope for rate cuts: The weakening economic data gives the Bank of England more room to lower interest rates.

• A more supportive issuance backdrop: The government's debt management strategy is seen as favorable for the bond market.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum may be poised to end years of lagging performance and finally outrun Bitcoin in 2026, driven by a regulatory overhaul and a confluence of key on-chain and market metrics.

Ethereum’s bull run since 2023 has yielded 160%, less than half of Bitcoin’s staggering 457% return, according to CoinGecko data. The difference in gains highlights Ethereum’s muted performance over the years despite improving market conditions.

But several catalysts suggest that the outlook could change.

Catalysts for Ethereum

The first signal is a clear market rotation highlighted by a decline in Bitcoin’s dominance.

Bitcoin dominance, or the coin’s share of the total market, peaked in July at 66% and has since trended lower, suggesting diversification of investor interest into altcoins, including Ethereum.

The second signal can be viewed through the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin. It has risen 3.59% year-to-date, according to market data.

“A rising ETH/BTC ratio, coupled with stagnating Bitcoin dominance, has historically been associated with the start of an altcoin season,” Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of the quantitative yield protocol Axis, told Decrypt. “Analysts observe that this rotation is being fueled by investors seeking higher ‘beta’ exposure in the Ethereum ecosystem following the stability of the Bitcoin ETF market.”

The setup suggests “capital rotation rather than Bitcoin weakness” and “often precedes selective Ethereum and large-cap altcoin rallies,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian exchange BuyUCoin, told Decrypt.

However, prediction markets reflect skepticism about an imminent, broad-based altcoin rally. Users on Myriad assign only a 19% chance that an alt season will occur before April 2026. (Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan.)

Still, the rotation of capital and investor interest is underpinned by strengthening fundamentals. The total transaction count on the Ethereum network has grown 6.8% to 2.05 million in 2026, spiking 31% since mid-December, highlighting increased adoption.

Will these conditions translate into short-term outperformance for Ethereum? Both experts see a path, though they emphasize different catalysts.

Thakral points to increased demand from exchange-traded funds, Layer 2 adoption, fee burn dynamics, restaking growth, and renewed DeFi activity. Xue looks to successful protocol upgrades such as Fusaka, the Glamsterdam fork, and ERC-8004, which could position Ethereum as the primary settlement layer for the new "Agentic AI" economy.

Although Ethereum’s year-to-date return of 11% already outperforms Bitcoin’s 8.5%, Thakral said that these moves are likely cyclical rather than a regime shift, at least without sustained support from improving macroeconomic and liquidity conditions.