Crypto Market Volatility Triggers $2.5 Billion in Bitcoin Liquidations

Gold and silver prices just experienced a historic pullback, marked by the most dramatic two-day sell-off in decades. Yet, despite the market turmoil, analysts widely believe the precious metals' bull run is far from over, with many forecasting fresh record highs later this year.

A Historic Plunge Shakes the Metals Market

The numbers behind the recent drop are staggering. On January 30, spot gold prices plunged nearly 10%—the steepest single-day fall since 1983. The move shattered the historic $5,000 per ounce milestone reached just days earlier, erasing a significant portion of the year's gains.

Silver fared even worse, plummeting 27% in the same session in its largest downfall on record. Across the last two trading sessions, gold lost more than 13% of its value, while silver tumbled by nearly 34%.

Despite the sharp decline, most analysts are framing this as a temporary correction rather than a long-term reversal.

"Although the fall was large and fast, it should also be remembered that we are currently at the same levels we saw just three weeks ago," noted independent analyst Ross Norman. "This is a significant correction but it does not, by any stretch of the imagination, signify the bull run has ended."

What Triggered the Gold Price Tumble?

Analysts point to an overextended rally that left gold vulnerable to a pullback. The price retreated nearly $900 from a record peak of $5,594.82 to around $4,700. The immediate catalysts for the sell-off were twofold:

1. A New Fed Chair Nomination: U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve sparked the initial move.

2. Increased Trading Costs: CME Group followed by raising margin requirements on precious metals futures, making it more expensive to hold positions.

According to analysts at WisdomTree, this pullback could discourage short-term speculative buying. In turn, this may create an opportunity for long-term strategic buyers to re-enter the market and re-allocate their portfolios.

Independent metals trader Tai Wong suggested that gold prices could now enter a period of consolidation before resuming their upward trend in the coming weeks and months.

Major Banks See Rebound to Record Highs

Driving the bullish outlook is the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. Lower rates typically boost the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Major financial institutions remain confident in gold's long-term trajectory, with several high-profile price targets for later this year:

• UBS: Analyst Giovanni Staunovo forecasts gold will reach a new record high above $6,200 per ounce.

• JP Morgan: The bank expects gold to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of the year.

• Deutsche Bank: Citing sustained investor demand, the bank reiterated its forecast for gold to reach $6,000 this year.

Near-Term Volatility Remains a Risk

However, not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Some analysts caution that market volatility may persist, and the sell-off could have further to run.

"It is far too early to suggest gold has found a bottom yet," warned Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

Meanwhile, expectations for silver remain mixed, reflecting its dual status as both a safe-haven precious metal and a crucial industrial component.

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States and India have agreed on a trade framework that places energy supply at the heart of their economic relationship. The deal aims to cut U.S. tariffs on Indian products in exchange for New Delhi expanding its purchases of American oil and gas.

Key Terms of the Agreement

According to Trump, the deal lowers U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 18% and removes an additional duty previously tied to India's procurement of Russian oil.

In return, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reportedly agreed to several commitments:

• Sharply reduce purchases of Russian crude oil.

• Shift toward U.S. energy supply.

• Increase purchases of American technology and agricultural products.

Indian officials have not yet confirmed the specific details or the timeline for these changes.

A Strategic Shift in Energy Sourcing

The framework’s focus on oil highlights India's significant role as a major buyer of Russian crude since 2022, a trend that has reshaped global tanker flows. Washington has increasingly viewed India's energy relationship with Russia as a political matter, using trade negotiations to encourage a pivot to alternative suppliers.

As part of the talks, Trump suggested India would be permitted to buy oil from Venezuela, framing it as a substitute for barrels from Russia and Iran. This remark hints at potential flexibility in U.S. sanctions enforcement, though no formal policy change has been announced. Venezuela remains under U.S. sanctions, with oil exports restricted by limited licenses. It is unclear if a specific authorization for India has been granted or if the comment was part of a negotiating strategy.

Market Dynamics and LNG's Role

The timing of the deal is notable, as India's crude imports are approaching record levels. January volumes are projected to be the highest on record, driven by strong domestic demand and fuel exports. Russian oil grades continue to dominate India's incremental supply due to their competitive pricing, while U.S. crude has found it difficult to compete without discounts.

The trade framework also includes liquefied natural gas (LNG). India faces a natural gas shortage and is exposed to volatile spot LNG prices, making it keen to secure lower-cost, long-term supply contracts. U.S. LNG exporters view India's growing power demand as a key market, but pricing terms have not yet been finalized.

Workers and retirees from Venezuela's state-run oil company, PDVSA, are watching recent industry reforms with a mix of hope and skepticism. Following U.S. intervention last month, a push to overhaul the sector has many wondering if their declining wages and pensions could finally recover, but confidence is far from universal.

In the oil hub of Maracaibo, some longtime PDVSA employees believe a turnaround could make their jobs and compensation more secure.

"Those of us who are still here have stayed out of love for our work," said one manager with over two decades of experience at PDVSA, who requested anonymity. "We've waited many years to see our oil better paid. Most people are willing to work, though there is still a lot of fear."

This cautious optimism is fueled by the promise that new investment will boost both oil production and paychecks. However, not everyone shares this view.

"Living an Illusion": Voices of Doubt

In nearby Ciudad Ojeda, a town dominated by housing complexes built for oil workers in the 1960s and 70s, many veterans of the industry are wary. They argue that the expected economic boom may not materialize as advertised.

"People in general are living an illusion created by U.S. propaganda about the economic boom Venezuela will supposedly see," said Jose Luis Galindo, a PDVSA retiree.

This skepticism is rooted in years of economic decline, with analysts estimating that inflation hit 400% last year.

Another veteran, 71-year-old Ender Perea, who worked at PDVSA for 38 years, believes foreign companies have their own agenda. Global oil firms are "not coming to rescue (PDVSA), they're coming to invest to open up fields," he commented.

What's Inside the New Energy Reform?

The changes are driven by a new energy-industry reform bill that passed last week. The legislation is designed to revitalize Venezuela's oil and gas production by attracting foreign investment after two decades of state control.

Key components of the reform include:

• Cutting taxes for energy producers.

• Granting autonomy to private companies.

• Allowing for the transfer of assets.

The policy marks a significant shift away from the nationalization era, which saw the government expropriate assets from foreign firms, including U.S. giants Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.

Figure 1: Venezuela's aging oil infrastructure underscores the immense challenge facing new reforms designed to attract foreign investment and boost production.

The Political Context: U.S. Intervention

These reforms follow the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro last month. Subsequently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan for Washington to guide the country from afar, proposing a $100 billion energy reconstruction plan he said would benefit Venezuela and its people.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been negotiating oil sales deals with the U.S. since Maduro's removal, has expressed support for the plan. While some workers are hopeful, the path forward remains highly uncertain, and the debate over whether this new era will bring prosperity or simply new problems continues in the heart of Venezuela's oil country.

A sweeping oil-industry reform in Venezuela, spurred by recent U.S. intervention, has ignited a mix of hope and skepticism among the workers and retirees of the state-run oil company, PDVSA. Many are cautiously watching to see if the changes will finally restore the purchasing power of their decimated wages and pensions.

Cautious Optimism for Better Pay

In and around the oil hub of Maracaibo in Zulia state, some loyal PDVSA employees express a guarded optimism. They anticipate that a turnaround in the industry could make their jobs, salaries, and retirement funds more secure and valuable after a long period of decline.

"Those of us who are still here have stayed out of love for our work. We've waited many years to see our oil better paid," said one manager with over 20 years of experience at PDVSA, who requested anonymity. "Most people are willing to work, though there is still a lot of fear."

Deep-Seated Skepticism Remains

However, this hope is far from universal. Many veterans of the industry believe the promised economic benefits may be overstated.

In the nearby town of Ciudad Ojeda, dominated by housing complexes built for oil workers in the 1960s and 70s, the mood is more doubtful. PDVSA retiree Jose Luis Galindo views the enthusiasm as misplaced. "People in general are living an illusion created by U.S. propaganda about the economic boom Venezuela will supposedly see," he said.

Another long-time employee, Ender Perea, 71, who worked at the state oil company for 38 years, questioned the motives of potential investors. He believes global oil firms are "not coming to rescue (PDVSA), they're coming to invest to open up fields."

Details of the U.S.-Backed Reform Plan

The proposed changes follow the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro and a plan from U.S. President Donald Trump for Washington to direct the oil-exporting nation from afar. The White House has proposed a $100 billion energy reconstruction plan, framing the overhaul as a positive step for Venezuela.

An energy-industry reform that passed last week aims to reverse two decades of state control. Its key objectives are:

• Cutting taxes

• Granting autonomy to private producers

• Allowing the transfer of assets

The plan has the support of Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been negotiating oil sales with the United States since Maduro's ouster. The overarching goal is to attract foreign investment to boost Venezuela's oil and gas production, which has struggled under state control since the government expropriated assets from foreign giants like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.

While some workers hold out hope that new investment will translate to higher output and better pay, the country's path remains uncertain after a prolonged economic decline that saw inflation reach an estimated 400% last year.

Argentina's government has no immediate plans to tap international capital markets, Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced, firmly dismissing speculation that improving economic indicators would soon lead to new external financing.

The statement comes as a surprise to some investors, who have watched the country's sovereign bond yields fall sharply. Recent dollar purchases by the central bank have helped stabilize markets and drive Argentina's country risk index below 500 points, a key milestone in the government's economic plan.

Caputo Details the Government's Stance

In a radio interview, Caputo clarified that Argentina's strategy does not involve issuing new international debt. "We have no intention of going to the international market," he stated directly.

Figure 1: Economy Minister Luis Caputo outlined Argentina's strategy to avoid new external financing during a recent business event.

He explained that as Argentina pays down its existing obligations, investors receiving those funds are choosing to reinvest in Argentine assets rather than exit the market, signaling renewed confidence.

The significant drop in the country's risk premium—the extra yield investors demand for holding Argentine debt over U.S. Treasuries—had fueled market expectations for a new bond sale. Some analysts even drew parallels to Ecuador, which recently returned to international debt issuance.

Milei's Strategy: Engineering Bond Scarcity

Elaborating on the government's approach in a post on X, President Javier Milei outlined a debt strategy centered on limiting the supply of sovereign bonds to drive down borrowing costs.

The core components of the plan include:

• Funding Payments with Asset Sales: The government will meet its obligations to multilateral lenders by selling state assets.

• Zero-Deficit Policy: A strict fiscal policy ensures interest payments are covered and, at most, existing debt is rolled over without increasing the total supply.

• Alternative Funding: Officials will continue to explore other funding sources to avoid fresh issuance.

Milei argued that this approach creates a powerful dynamic. With a fixed or non-growing supply of bonds, rising investor demand will naturally push bond prices higher.

"A non-growing supply of bonds combined with growing demand implies higher prices for Argentine bonds and therefore lower interest rates," Milei explained. He added that as the country's economic fundamentals improve, this positive cycle of rising confidence and falling yields will reinforce itself.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he has secured a trade agreement with India. According to the announcement, the deal includes a commitment from New Delhi to cease purchasing Russian oil and increase its imports from the United States and potentially Venezuela.

This development marks a significant turn in a bilateral relationship that had deteriorated sharply over the past year.

The 2025 Tariff Shock: How Tensions Escalated

The friction in U.S.-Indian trade relations reached a breaking point between April and August of 2025. In a surprise move, President Trump levied an initial 25% tariff on Indian goods shipped to the United States.

This was followed by an additional 25% tariff, which the U.S. justified by citing India's purchases of Russian oil. The cumulative effect of these actions pushed duties to 50% on most Indian products, driving diplomatic and economic relations to a historic low. India officially protested the tariffs, calling them unfair.

Breakdown in Diplomacy: Why Talks Stalled

By mid-2025, any hope for a bilateral trade agreement had faded as negotiations stalled amid rising tensions. The situation was complicated by the fact that Trump had successfully closed larger trade deals with Japan and the European Union, while offering more favorable terms to Pakistan, India's regional rival.

Trump's repeated comments about mediating the India-Pakistan conflict further strained the negotiations. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began delaying calls and meetings with Trump.

The diplomatic chill became evident when Modi declined Trump's invitation to visit Washington following the G7 meeting in Canada in June. In a public speech, Modi vowed to protect the interests of India's farmers, signaling that disagreements over the politically sensitive agriculture sector were a key reason for the talks' failure. In the wake of the stalemate, India shifted its focus, working to improve its relationship with China and finalizing a landmark trade deal with the European Union.

Economic Fallout: Tariffs, Exports, and Market Pain

The trade dispute had a mixed but broadly negative impact on the Indian economy, hitting financial markets hard even as some export sectors showed surprising strength.

Surprising Resilience in Exports

Despite the heavy tariffs, India's merchandise exports to the U.S.—its largest export market—actually increased. In November, for example, exports rose 21% year-on-year. This growth was largely driven by a surge in electronics exports.

However, the tariffs took a severe toll on other key sectors. Consumer goods industries, including textiles, jewelry, and auto parts, were among the hardest hit by the 50% duties.

Rupee and Stocks Feel the Pressure

Indian financial markets have been on edge since the relationship with the U.S. soured. Last year, Indian equity markets and the Indian rupee were the worst performers among their emerging-market peers. This underperformance was fueled by record selling from foreign investors, a trend that has continued into 2026.