China & India's Coal Power Use Drops in Historic Shift

In a landmark development for global energy markets, coal-fired power generation in China and India fell simultaneously last year, an event not seen since the 1970s. According to new analysis, this historic shift was driven by a record-breaking expansion of clean energy, signaling a potential turning point for global carbon emissions.

A Landmark Decline in Coal Consumption

Research from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, commissioned by Carbon Brief, reveals that electricity generated by coal plants dropped by 1.6% in China and 3% in India during the past year.

The simultaneous decline in the world's two largest coal-consuming nations is a significant milestone. The report describes the drop in coal power and the corresponding surge in clean energy as a "historic moment" that could be "a sign of things to come."

The global implications are substantial. Together, China and India accounted for over 90% of the increase in global carbon emissions between 2015 and 2024. A sustained reduction in their coal dependency could signal a peak in worldwide coal consumption and, consequently, global emissions.

Record Clean Energy Growth Fuels the Transition

The primary driver behind this downturn in coal use was the explosive growth in renewable energy capacity in both countries. The rollout of new clean energy projects was so extensive that it not only met rising electricity demand but also began to displace existing coal-fired generation.

China's Unprecedented Renewable Expansion

China led the charge with a massive build-out of renewable infrastructure. Last year, the country added over 300 gigawatts (GW) of solar power and 100 GW of wind power. To put this in perspective, this combined capacity is more than five times the total existing power generation capacity of the United Kingdom. The report notes these figures are "clear new records for China and, therefore, for any country ever."

India's Progress Aided by Multiple Factors

India also made significant strides, adding 35 GW of solar, 6 GW of wind, and 3.5 GW of hydropower. The analysis found that this growth in clean energy was responsible for 44% of the reduction in coal and gas power generation compared to the previous five years.

However, the reduction in India was also influenced by other factors. Milder weather contributed to 36% of the fossil fuel reduction, while slower growth in underlying energy demand accounted for another 20%. This suggests that a severe summer, which would increase demand for air-conditioning, could potentially reverse some of these gains.

Global Context and Future Outlook

This positive development comes after a period of uncertainty for global coal markets. Russia's war on Ukraine caused a spike in global gas prices, prompting many developing nations to turn to cheaper coal and delaying an anticipated peak in global coal power.

Just over a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that a rebound in coal use following the pandemic could keep consumption at near-record levels until 2027. The latest data from China and India presents a powerful counter-narrative, suggesting the global energy transition may be accelerating faster than previously expected.