Central Bank Speakers in Focus

Forex

Summary:

We saw a subdued and negative start to the week for markets in Europe yesterday, following on from a weak Asia session, with some mild profit taking after the exuberance of the last couple of weeks.

US markets also saw a similarly modest subdued start to the week, with most of the day's excitement taking place in the bond market, after a strong 5-year bond auction prompted a sharp fall in US 10-year yields towards last week's lows below 4.4%.

When combined with a weak October new home sales report, as well as a weak Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, it is becoming increasingly apparent that markets believe that we will start to see rate cuts by the middle of next year, despite the attempts of various Fed officials to push back on this idea.

Today it will be the turn of Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, along with the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee who will be tasked with pushing the “higher for longer” narrative that the central bank will want to maintain.

The US dollar had a broadly negative day, helped in some part by the extension of the ceasefire in Gaza, which in turn also served to weigh further on the oil price ahead of Thursday's OPEC+ meeting.

The unwinding of the US dollar trade appears to be being driven by two factors, firstly the idea that the Fed is done on the hiking front, hence the recent slide in yields, and secondly the reduced risk premium that we've seen over the past 2-weeks as markets become comfortable with the idea that the conflict in Gaza can be contained.

Whether that weakness is maintained will probably depend on how markets perceive this week's core PCE inflation numbers for October, however given the losses seen so far this month, the reaction may well be limited by month end positioning.

Today's US consumer confidence numbers for November could also be instructive given the strength of the consumer spending numbers we've seen over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Expectations are for a modest decline to 101 from 102.6, however these numbers can be highly volatile so there is the prospect of an upside surprise, given the decline in gasoline prices seen over the past few weeks.

It's also worth keeping an eye on the pound given the sharp slowdown we saw in inflation in the recent October numbers. This morning's British Retail Consortium shop price index numbers for November saw headline inflation slow from 5.2% in October to 4.3%, the lowest level since June 2022, with food prices lagging behind at 7.8%.

Recent UK economic data has proved to be slightly more resilient than expected which in turn has helped lift the pound on the basis that it will mean the Bank of England will have to defer cutting rates until later in 2024, despite saying the growth outlook for the UK was the worst he's ever seen in his lifetime. Hyperbole aside this is also the same Bank of England who a year ago were predicting a two-year recession.

Yesterday Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey went to great lengths to reinforce that idea, while later today we will get to hear from Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden as well as external member Jonathan Haskel. At the November meeting Haskel was one of 3 MPC members who voted for a 25bps rate hike so his comments will be especially instructive.

EUR/USD – continues to be capped at the 1.0960 area, with the August peaks at 1.1060/70 the next resistance. We need to hold above the 1.0840 area to signal the prospect of further gains. We also have support at the 200-day SMA at 1.0810.

GBP/USD – having broken above the 1.2450 area and 200-day SMA, as well as breaking above 1.2590, 50% retracement, we could well see a further extension towards the 1.2720 area, which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.3140/1.2035 down move. Upside momentum remains intact while above 1.2450.

EUR/GBP – another lower low yesterday at 0.8657 as we look for a move towards the 0.8620 area. Resistance currently back at the 0.8720 area.

USD/JPY – the last 4 days has seen the US dollar hold below the 50-day SMA at 149.70/80. While this level caps the risk is for a move back to the lows last week at 147.15 A break of 150.20 potentially retargets the main resistance at the 151.95 area.

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Thomas

Central Bank

Economic

A key measure of Japan's trend inflation accelerated to 2.2 per cent in October, data showed on Tuesday, marking a fresh record high in a sign of broadening price pressure that heightens the case for the central bank to dial back its massive monetary stimulus.

The data adds to recent growing signs that prospects of sustained wage increases are prodding firms to hike prices for their services, a trend the central bank sees as a prerequisite for ending ultra-low interest rates.

The 2.2 per cent year-on-year increase in the weighted median inflation rate, which is closely watched as an indicator on whether price rises are broadening, followed a 2.0 per cent gain in September. It was the fastest rise since comparable data became available in 2001, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed.

The data will be among the factors the BOJ will scrutinise at its next policy-setting meeting on Dec. 18-19.

The BOJ remains a global dovish outlier, having maintained ultra-loose policy even as major central banks elsewhere raised interest rates aggressively to fight rampant inflation.

While core consumer inflation has exceeded its target for more than a year, the BOJ has pledged to keep super-low interest rates until its 2 per cent inflation target can be achieved on a sustained manner, backed by solid consumption and wage increases.

"We're seeing some positive signs in wages and inflation. But there's high uncertainty on whether this cycle will strengthen," BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Monday.

There has been other signs that conditions for an exit from current policy are falling in place.

Indications from businesses, unions and economists suggest that labour market tightness and cost pressures that had set the stage for this year's pay hikes - the largest in more than three decades - will persist heading into next year's key spring wage talks.

The weighted median is the inflation rate of items at the middle of the price changes, or around the 50th percentile point of the distribution.

After hovering around zero for the past two decades, it began creeping up last year reflecting a wave of price hikes by companies passing on surging raw material costs.

Unlike the consumer price index (CPI), which is swayed by fuel and energy costs, the weighted median inflation rate is useful to trace how widely prices are rising.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

"Layer 2" cryptocurrencies native to projects built on top of "layer 1" blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum - have found a new lease of life after a year in the doldrums, buoyed by a rising crypto tide.

Anticipation of easing US borrowing costs and a possible US spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund have lifted crypto prices since the summer, with market bitcoin gaining by about half since the end of August.

Tokens associated with layer 2 projects - which typically aim to speed up transactions and cut costs - have a combined market cap of about US$14.3 billion, about a tenth of the total crypto market, according to data from CoinMaketCap.com.

Matic, the largest layer 2 token with a market cap of US$6.90 billion, has jumped 20 per cent to US$0.74 over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko. It's used on Polygon, a platform that reduces congestion on the Ethereum network.

The next four largest coins - immutable, mantle, arbitrum and optimism - have leapt between 9 per cent and 105 per cent over the past month and trade between US$0.5 to under US$2 apiece.

All five tokens are down between 16 per cent and 86 per cent from their all-time highs hit over the past two years, though.

Ether, the layer 1 token linked to the Ethereum blockchain on which most layer 2 tokens are based, has leapt 13.8 per cent to $2,028.80 in the past month.

Layer 2 tokens, which have proliferated in recent years, can be a risky business. They are small and thinly traded, meaning they can be highly volatile and unpredictable. Picking long-term winners is tough.

"On average, the growth is not sustainable for those tokens ... 100 try and one wins," said Matteo Greco, research analyst at digital asset and fintech investment firm Fineqia International.

"There's always a bit of thin air behind the moves."

Price performance is also patchy.

Matic has fallen about 3 per cent in 2023, while gaming token immutable has more than tripled in price, versus bitcoin's 123 per cent and ether's 69 per cent gains.

Speculative Character

Layer 2 tokens are a gauge of sentiment towards the projects they are linked to, but their extreme volatility also lends them a speculative character. They are often among the last ones to catch a bid when broader crypto market rises and among the first ones to sell off when sentiment is shaken.

While layer 2 tokens are tiny in comparison to big guns like bitcoin, their volatility makes them a favorite among active traders trying to capitalize on market momentum.

"They can be very attractive investments even though they can be very speculative," said Joshua Peck, chief investment officer at hedge fund TrueCode Capital, whose fund invests in matic. "For a token that's down 97 per cent, it doesn't take a lot of capital inflow for it to go three times, four times, five times in price."

"Active trading is the right approach for these tokens because the market is moving so much," Peck added.

The future of layer 2 tokens is unclear.

Some analysts see the projects as vital to increasing the practical uses of blockchains like Ethereum, in areas such as finance to gaming.

Yet the market is crowded. Numerous projects and their tokens were launched as the crypto market boomed in 2020, before sinking during the crypto winter of 2022.

"The space feels 'unserious' right now ... in terms of being able to point to an example of something you'd like to run your business or family's personal finances on," said Alyse Killeen, managing partner at venture capital firm Stillmark.

Many investors agree that only projects with useful practical applications will survive.

"In these macro phases, the use cases are not really so important. The real difference between assets that have decent use cases and assets that don't is (in) the bear market," said Fineqia International's Greco.

"Assets that have good use cases are able to resist the downtrend even though they get hit hard."

Source: Reuters

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ING

Commodity

Energy

Energy - Attention remains on OPEC+

The oil market came under further pressure yesterday despite growing reports that Saudi Arabia is pressing the broader OPEC+ group to agree to deeper supply cuts when they meet on Thursday. ICE Brent settled just below US$80/bbl as the market increasingly focuses on a looser oil balance early next year. The extension of additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia should erase most of the surplus expected in 1Q24. However, if OPEC+ want to provide more solid support to the market and ensure that we do not see stocks building early next year, they will need to agree on deeper and broader cuts. The Saudis and OPEC+ have made a habit of surprising markets in recent years when it comes to their meetings. However, with aggressive cuts already in place, it does leave one wondering the degree to which the group could surprise the market with deeper-than-expected cuts.

The latest Commitment of Traders report was released yesterday (delayed due to Thanksgiving last week), and unsurprisingly, given the weakness seen in the market, speculators continued to reduce their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. The managed money net long fell by 15,880 lots to 155,105 lots as of last Tuesday, which is the smallest position since early October. The move was predominantly driven by longs liquidating. Similarly for NYMEX WTI, speculators reduced their net long by 19,751 lots over the last reporting week to 104,545 lots - the smallest position since July. While longs are liquidating as sentiment in the market sours, there is also likely an element of speculators taking risk off the table ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

European natural gas prices came under further pressure yesterday with TTF settling more than 5.7% lower on the day. The storage situation remains very comfortable at slightly more than 97% full. While storage draws are starting to pick up in pace they still remain at record levels for this time of year. We continue to forecast that European storage will end the 23/24 heating season at somewhere between 45-50% full, which, while lower than last year, is still very comfortable and above average. Reduced volatility in the gas market has also seen ICE reduce initial margins for TTF futures by 13% to EUR13.86/MWh.

Metals – Gold surges to six-month highs

Gold climbed to its highest level since May yesterday amid USD weakness and lower US Treasury yields. The market will be closely watching US data releases this week, including inflation data and Q3 GDP numbers. Meanwhile, gold premiums in Asia, particularly in India and China, have been under pressure as higher prices hamper seasonal demand. Gold dealers in India were heard to be offering discounts of up to US$6/oz (vs. US$3/oz a week earlier) over official domestic prices, while premiums in China fell to US$20-US$40/oz (vs. US$43-US$58/oz a week earlier) over global spot prices last week.

In base metals, aluminium prices have been supported by ongoing production curbs in China's southern Yunnan province. Smelters in the region are reportedly planning to reduce aluminium output again this winter amid declining hydropower supply during the dry season. A total 1.16 mtpa of aluminium smelting capacity is set to be halted and is expected to remain offline until May 2024, when the rainy season usually begins. This will mark the third consecutive year that Yunnan smelters have reduced output during the dry season. Further cuts are possible.

Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush

The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Center-South Brazil increased by 32% year-on-year to 34.8mt over the first half of November. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season stands at 595.4mt, up 15% YoY. Meanwhile, sugar production rose 31% YoY to 2.2mt over the first half of November with total sugar output up 23% YoY to 39.4mt in the season so far. Around 49.8% of cane was allocated to sugar in the fortnight, higher than the 48.6% allocated to sugar in the same period last year, as higher sugar prices prompted mills to increase production levels. CS Brazil will produce a record amount of sugar in the current 2023/24 season.

The USDA's weekly crop progress report for the week ending 26 November shows that the US corn harvest is largely complete with around 96% of area harvested, slightly above the five-year average of 95%. As for wheat, the data shows that 48% of the winter wheat crop is rated in good to excellent condition, higher than 34% seen at the same stage last year.

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Yen has a notable bounce in Asian session today, fueled by a Nikkei report suggesting that BoJ is finally near to the end its negative interest rate policy. This policy shift, which could see interest rates rise as early as the first half of next year, hinges on the outcomes of spring labor-management negotiations and consumer spending development. Such a move, if realized, would mark a major shift in monetary policy, being the first interest rate hike in 17 years.

Nikkei report indeed aligns closely with BoJ's existing communication, where a wage-price spiral is considered a prerequisite for any rate hike. While BoJ has not specified a timeline, the timing of spring wage negotiations make the first half of 2024 a plausible period for this policy change.

In a related development, Yomiuri newspaper reported that Japan's top business lobby, Keidanren, plans to discuss the potential negative impacts of Yen's weakness on the economy. This is a notable shift, as Keidanren, comprising major companies in the automotive and electronics sectors, has traditionally favored a weak yen. A reevaluation of this stance could intensify calls for BoJ to end ultra-loose monetary policy, reflecting a changing perspective in Japan's business sector regarding currency valuation and economic impact.

Globally, Dollar is underperforming, extending its near-term sell-off. Euro, continuing to struggle too, has failed to break out from its near-term range against the weak Dollar. Swiss Franc is performing marginally better than Euro, while Sterling appears firmer among European currencies. Interestingly, Australian Dollar is currently the second strongest after Yen, showing resilience despite weak retail sales data, followed by Canadian Loonie and New Zealand Kiwi.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY's break of 162.42 minor support indicates the start of the third leg of the corrective pattern from 164.29. Deeper fall could reach 161.22 support and potentially lower, though strong support is expected around 159.75 resistance-turned-support to complete the correction. However, decisive fall through 159.75 would be a significant indicator of Yen's underlying strength.

Yen Strengthens Amid Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift and Business Sector's Currency Concerns_1

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.31%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.60%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.10%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.38%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0075 at 0.768. Overnight, DOW fell -0.16%. S&P 500 fell -0.20%. NASDAQ fell -0.07%. 10-year yield fell -0.083 to 4.389.

Australia retail sales down -0.2% mom in Oct, strategic delay for Black Friday

Australia's retail sales turnover in October displayed an unexpected downturn, falling by -0.2% mom, contrary to the anticipated rise of 0.1% mom. This decline follows a period of growth, with 0.9% mom increase in September and 0.2% mom rise in August.

Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at ABS, noted “Retail turnover fell in October after a short-lived boost in spending in September.” This downturn was seen across all retail categories except food retailing.

Dorber attributed this pause in consumer spending to a strategic delay by consumers, who are likely waiting to capitalize on Black Friday sales events in November. He observed that this has become a recurring pattern in recent years, with Black Friday sales gaining increasing popularity among consumers.

RBA's Bullock: we have to be a little bit careful in this period

In a central bank conference held in Hong Kong, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that monetary policy is currently restrictive, a necessary stance to moderate demand and anchor inflation expectations.

Bullock highlighted the need to be “a little bit careful,” in this period, aiming to control inflation and bring it back within target range of 2-3%, while also being mindful of not overly burdening the economy or causing a significant rise in unemployment rates.

Bullock also pointed out the emergence of “second-round effects” in areas like wages, observing that businesses are currently able to pass on increased costs to maintain profit margins, a trend reflecting sufficient demand.

At the same panel, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that monetary policy in UK would likely need to remain “restrictive for an extended period” to effectively bring inflation back to 2% target.

Additionally, Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of Bank of Spain, noted that tight monetary policy is necessary in the short term. However, he also mentioned the possibility of easing should inflation slow as forecasted.

Looking ahead

Germany Gfk consumer confidence and Eurozone M3 will be release in European session. Later in the day, US will release house price index and consumer confidence.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY's break of 148.57 minor support indicates rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside to extend the decline from 151.9. Next target is 147.14 support. Further break of 61.8% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 146.72will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.66 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Yen Strengthens Amid Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift and Business Sector's Currency Concerns_2

Yen Strengthens Amid Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift and Business Sector's Currency Concerns_2

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless, strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage. Yen Strengthens Amid Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift and Business Sector's Currency Concerns_3

Yen Strengthens Amid Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift and Business Sector's Currency Concerns_3

Source: ActionForex

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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IC Markets

Forex

Commodity

Stocks

Cryptocurrency

DXY

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 102.94 is identified as an overlap support, and it also coincides with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension level. This suggests that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, providing support for the U.S. Dollar Index.

The 2nd support at 102.59 is another overlap support level, and it aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension. This adds further significance to this support level, indicating it as a potential area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, The 1st resistance at 103.62 is categorized as a pullback resistance, implying that it's a level where selling pressure may increase, acting as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 104.05 is noted as an overlap resistance, which suggests it's another significant level where selling interest could intensify.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There is a potential scenario where the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and decline towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 1.0923 is considered an overlap support, suggesting it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the currency pair.

The 2nd support at 1.0879 is also an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active and offer support.

On the resistance side, The 1st resistance at 1.0956 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance. This level represents a significant barrier to upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 1.0997 is noted as a level where selling pressure may intensify, as it aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

EUR/JPY

The analyzed instrument is EUR/JPY, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.

There is a potential for the price to make a short-term rise towards the 1st resistance before reversing off it and dropping towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level is identified at 162.36, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a pullback support.

The 2nd support level is situated at 161.54, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a swing low support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 162.89, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.

The 2nd resistance is located at 163.65, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.

EUR/GBP

The analyzed instrument is EUR/GBP, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.

There is a potential for the price to make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level is identified at 0.8663, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a multi-swing low support.

The 2nd support level is situated at 0.8641, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a swing low support and coinciding with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 0.8689, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.

The 2nd resistance is located at 0.8720, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 1.2558 is considered a pullback support, suggesting it's a level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.

The 2nd support at 1.2497 is also an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active and offer support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2633 is categorized as an overlap resistance. This level is significant as it aligns with the 100% Fibonacci Projection, which adds further significance to the resistance level.

The 2nd resistance at 1.2712 is noted as a swing high resistance, which suggests it's a point where selling pressure may increase.

GBP/JPY

The overall momentum of GBP/JPY is bearish,indicating a downward trend.The price could potentially react bearishly off the 1st resistance level and drop towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 187.01 is considered a pullback support, and it coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. This convergence of technical factors makes it a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the currency pair.

The 2nd support at 185.95 is characterized as a multi-swing low support, indicating another area where buyers might become active.

The 1st resistance at 188.17 is identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure could intensify and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF, the overall momentum of the chart is bullish, indicating an upward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could make a bullish bounce off the 1st support and head towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support at 0.8796 is considered an overlap support, suggesting that it's a level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.

The 2nd support at 0.8769 is a swing low support, indicating another level where buyers could potentially become active and offer support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8826 is categorized as an overlap resistance, suggesting that it's a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 0.8854 is also an overlap resistance, reinforcing the potential resistance at this level.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY, the overall momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. There's a potential scenario where the price could continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 147.51 is considered a multi-swing low support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the currency pair.

The 2nd support at 146.16 is a swing low support, and it also coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, making it a strong potential support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 149.63 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 150.34 is a pullback resistance, suggesting another potential point where sellers could enter the market.

There's also an intermediate resistance at 148.36, which is another level to watch for potential pullback resistance.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bullish, suggesting a potential upward movement in price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could experience a bullish bounce off the 1st support level and head towards the 1st resistance.

Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance

1st support at 1.3604 This level is identified as an overlap support, indicating it has previously acted as a price point where buyers have shown interest and provided support.

2nd support at 1.3578 The 2nd support level is another critical level, as it aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, making it a potential zone where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.3653 The 1st resistance is characterized as an overlap resistance, suggesting a level where selling pressure may intensify.

2nd resistance at 1.3693 The 2nd resistance is identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a point where sellers may enter the market.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish, suggesting a potential downward movement in price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.

Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance

1st support at 0.6570 This level is identified as an overlap support, indicating it has previously acted as a price point where buyers have shown interest and provided support.

2nd support at 0.6520 Similar to the 1st support, this is also an overlap support, reinforcing its significance as a potential area where buyers might step in.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.6641 The 1st resistance is characterized as a pullback resistance, and it also aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension level. This confluence suggests a strong resistance zone where selling pressure may intensify.

2nd resistance at 0.6724 The 2nd resistance is another overlap resistance level, further adding to its potential as a strong resistance point.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish, indicating a potential downward movement in the price. In this scenario, there is a possibility that the price could react bearishly off the 1st resistance and drop towards the 1st support.

Here are the key levels and reasons for their significance

1st support at 0.6065 This level is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a price point where buyers have previously shown interest and may provide support again.

2nd support at 0.6011 This level is also an overlap support, reinforcing its significance as a potential area where buyers might step in.

On the resistance side, 1st resistance at 0.6105 The 1st resistance is characterized as a swing high resistance. This level is important because it has confluence with both the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection and the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a strong resistance zone.

2nd resistance at 0.6140 The 2nd resistance level is associated with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding further weight to its potential as a strong resistance point.

DJ30

The DJ30, the momentum of the chart is bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 35075.70 is identified as an overlap support, which implies that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, providing support for the DJ30 index.

The 2nd support at 34768.62 is categorized as a pullback support, suggesting that it's a level where buyers might be more inclined to step in.

Intermediate resistance at 35409.48 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure could mount, acting as a potential obstacle to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 35721.09 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating that it's a point where sellers might engage in the market.

GER40

The GER40 overall momentum is overall bearish, indicating a downward trend. The price could potentially continue its bearish movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 15872.3 is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge and provide support for the GER40 index.

The 2nd support at 15803.8 is also categorized as an overlap support level, indicating another potential area where buyers could become active.

The 1st resistance at 15991.2 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure could intensify, serving as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 16064.4 is categorized as a swing high resistance, suggesting that it's a point where sellers may engage in the market.

US500

The overall momentum of US500 is bullish. The price could potentially continue its bullish movement towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support at 4529.6 is identified as an overlap support, suggesting that it's a significant level where buying interest may provide support for the S&P 500 index.

The 2nd support at 4461.2 is categorized as a pullback support level, indicating another area where buyers could become active after a retracement.

The 1st resistance at 4598.0 is noted as a pullback resistance, signifying a level where selling pressure may intensify and act as a potential barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 4633.1 is also categorized as a pullback resistance, suggesting that it's a point where sellers may become more active.

BTC/USD

The analyzed instrument is BTC/USD, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.

There is a potential for the price to make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support.

The 1st support level is identified at 35717, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a multi-swing low support.

An intermediate support is also noted at 36754, and its significance is derived from being a swing low support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 38313, and it is considered significant due to being a swing high resistance.

The 2nd resistance is located at 39878, and its significance is derived from being a swing high resistance.

ETH/USD

The analyzed instrument is ETH/USD, and the overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish.

There is a potential for the price to make a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance and drop to the 1st support.

The 1st support level is identified at 1985.49, and its favorable characteristic is attributed to being a swing low support.

The 2nd support level is situated at 1931.71, and its favorable aspect is derived from being a multi-swing low support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is positioned at 2040.19, and it is considered significant due to being an overlap resistance.

The 2nd resistance is located at 2129.57, and its significance is derived from being a multi-swing high resistance.

WTI/USD

The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil, the overall momentum of the chart is currently neutral, suggesting a lack of a clear bullish or bearish trend. In this situation, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.

The 1st support at 72.57 is identified as an overlap support, implying that it's a level where buyers may show interest and provide support for the price.

The 2nd support at 70.65 is associated with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, which adds to its significance as a potential support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 78.54 is categorized as a swing high resistance. This level could attract selling interest and act as a barrier to further upward price movement.

The 2nd resistance at 80.32 is considered a pullback resistance.

In addition, a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. Symmetrical triangles are indeed consolidation patterns that indicate a period of indecision in the market. A break above the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle could signal a bullish breakout. Conversely, a break below the lower trendline might indicate a bearish breakdown. Technical Outlook and Review_17

XAU/USD (GOLD)

The XAU/USD, the overall momentum of the chart is currently neutral, indicating a lack of a clear bullish or bearish trend. In this situation, there is a potential scenario where the price could fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support levels.

The 1st support at 2006.36 is identified as an overlap support, implying that it's a level where buyers may show interest and provide support for the price.

The 2nd support at 1991.79 is also an overlap support level, suggesting another area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 2020.35 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance. This level is significant as it could attract selling interest and act as a barrier to further upward price movement. Additionally, it coincides with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its significance.

The 2nd resistance at 2037.38 is another multi-swing high resistance level. Technical Outlook and Review_18

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Latest news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

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The US Pentagon: Preliminary assessment believes that the gunmen who attacked the oil tanker "Central Park" were Somalis and that the incident was an act of piracy.

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Iran's IRIS "Deylaman" Mowj-class destroyer has officially entered service with the Iranian Caspian Fleet.

Latest News on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (November 28)_1

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