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XAUUSD: Gold Oscillates to the Upside in the Short Term

Summary:

There is still significant room for gold to rise overall. But Powell's speech can cause some volatility in this week's trend. The market expectations have clearly "jumped the gun," which is not what the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like to see. The Fed has dampened market expectations several times in the past. And from Powell's attitude at the November meeting and the recent speeches of many officials, Powell can dampen market expectations again this week, causing gold to pull back.

Buy XAUUSD
End Time
CLOSED

1747.73

ENTRY PRICE

1758.51

TGT PRICE

1742.18

SL PRICE

1930.77 +2.80 +0.14%

555

Points

Loss

1742.18

SL PRICE

1742.03

CLOSING

1747.73

ENTRY PRICE

1758.51

TGT PRICE

Fundamentals

Gold generally oscillated last Friday, closing with a slight loss of 0.13%. The US markets were closed in advance the next day of Thanksgiving, resulting in overall small volatility in the financial markets. During the European session of the day, gold has fallen slightly by 0.11%. For now, there is still room for gold to rise. In the recent trend in US bonds, the 10-year US bond yield has fallen below the 3.75%-4% federal funds target rate range. This first occurred in mid-November (around the 16th), just a few days after the US CPI data in October was released. And it was nearly then that the sharp fall in long-term yields began, leading to a continued widening of the yield curve inversion to the largest in forty years.
In addition, current pricing in the swap markets and contracts suggests that the market expects benchmark rates to rise to a peak of around 5% by the middle of next year, with a cut of more than 50 basis points from the peak by early 2024. Some, however, are betting on an even bigger turnaround in tightening policy. Trading related to SOFR futures shows that some forecast that rates can fall to 3% or even 2% by late 2023 or early 2024.
In other words, the Fed's policy is developing dynamically. Officials are still hinting at continued rate hikes, but the trading in the market is skewed towards the view that the Fed's tightening cycle is nearing its end.
This allows sufficient room for gold to rise to the upside. In addition, the first mention of a US recession in last week's Fed minutes can stoke recession fears in the market, when gold can also be affected by risk aversion.
However, since the great rise in gold on November 4, Powell's speech can cause some volatility in this week's trend. The market expectations have clearly "jumped the gun," which is not what the Fed would like to see. The Fed has dampened market expectations several times in the past. And from Powell's attitude at the November meeting and the recent speeches of many officials, Powell can dampen market expectations again this week, causing gold to pull back.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, gold is in oscillation with a strong resistance level at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (1774.80). The short-term support level is at the bottom of the narrow oscillation range (1737.194). The key support level is around 1730, where the neckline of the double bottom is located, as well as the top of the historical oscillation range of 1617.123 – 1730. The 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-moving average (MA) are also nearby. A break below this level means that gold will start a new round of declines. In terms of indicators, Stoch and DMI both show that gold is in an ascending trend in the short term. However, downside risks are accumulating. The turning line of the Ichimoku chart shows signs of breaking down through the baseline, indicating a downside risk for gold. Overall, gold can show a rise-fall-rise oscillation trend, and it is recommended to go long after a fall in gold.XAUUSD: Gold Oscillates to the Upside in the Short Term _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1747.73
Target price: 1758.51
Stop loss: 1742.18
Support: 1749.52/173719/1730.00
Resistance: 1756.70/1765.85/1774.80
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Jason

Analyst

I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

Rank

12

Articles

489

Win Rate

38.59%

P/L Ratio

1.19

Focus on

USDX, EURUSD, GBPUSD

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