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      USDX: CPI May Cause the Dollar to Open a New Round of Declines

      Summary:

      Yellen's speech and the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey both indicate that the CPI is likely to slow this time, which also means that the Fed is about to enter the second phase of tightening.

      Sell USDX
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      105.400

      ENTRY PRICE

      103.000

      TGT PRICE

      106.800

      SL PRICE

      102.408 -0.400 -0.38%

      --

      Point

      EXPIRED

      103.000

      TGT PRICE

      104.356

      CLOSING

      105.400

      ENTRY PRICE

      106.800

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Market trends were flat on Monday, with the overall market in a wait-and-see mode before the U.S. CPI release. The dollar had a choppy performance, edging up 0.06%. The market is now widely expected to see a slowdown in CPI, which is the most important data before the Fed's December interest rate resolution and the last inflation report in 2022. This data will directly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's December meeting. From the market expectation, the Fed will announce a 50 basis point rate hike this week after 75 basis points of consecutive rate hikes. At the same time, the market is also very concerned about whether the terminal interest rate forecast of the Fed exceeds 5%. The current federal fund's futures market forecasts that rates will peak at 4.984% in May, the level at which the Fed will stop raising interest rates.
      In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in an interview with CBS on Sunday (EST) that she expects inflation to fall sharply by the end of next year, barring an unexpected shock. Positive signs are seen, and many underlying causes are slowly being addressed. Transportation costs have come down, delivery lags have shortened, and petrol prices have fallen sharply. The U.S. is at or above full employment, so there is no need for the economy to grow as fast as it did in the post-pandemic recovery to bring people back into the labor market.
      Meanwhile, the New York Fed also released its November Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), with inflation expectations falling across the board:
      The median inflation expectation for the next year is 5.2% (previously 5.9%), the median inflation expectation for the next three years is 3.0% (previously 3.1%), and the median inflation expectation for the next five years is 2.3% (previously 2.4%).
      This may mean that there is a higher probability of a slowdown in the CPI data and that the Fed is about to enter the second phase of tightening.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4-hour chart, the dollar has been in an overall oscillation since last week, but the upcoming CPI release will help the dollar break out of this situation. In the short term, the dollar will only have room for further gains if it breaks 106.038, a line at the bottom of the 106.038-107.211 oscillation range, while the 100 SMA in the 4-hour chart and the 200 SMA in the daily chart are also near this line. Its strong support is 104.016 in the short term, and it may go straight to 103 below the line. As for indicators, Stoch has a death cross; DMI shows that the dollar has the possibility of upside in the short term; in the Ichimoku cloud, although the price has fallen below the benchmark line and the turning line, you still need to further observe the movement, and the current trend has shown that upward momentum is accumulating. Overall, the dollar is likely to rise slightly after the decline.USDX: CPI May Cause the Dollar to Open a New Round of Declines_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 105.40
      Target price: 103.00
      Stop loss: 106.8
      Supports: 104.495, 104.016, 103.519, 103.00
      Resistances: 104.952, 105.40, 106.038, 106.825
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Jason

      Analyst

      I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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      13

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      318

      Win Rate

      38.59%

      P/L Ratio

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      USDX, EURUSD, GBPUSD

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