Clean Wedge Breakout & Retest

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The EURCAD price is expected to fall to 1.29000 with two price targets since it is currently at a resistance level.

SELL EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31500

Entry Price

1.29000

1.34000

1.48841 -0.00313 -0.20%

250.0

Pips

Loss

1.29000

1.34000

Exit Price

1.31500

Entry Price

1.34000

EURCAD : Clean Wedge Breakout & Retest_1

In what appeared to be a breakout to the upside from the consolidation zone, price couldn't clear the downward trendline, which acted as resistance, and quickly returned to the range.

This morning, in the Asian session, prices broke out of a rising wedge that fell hard and found support at the 1.300 level. They are now testing the broken structure again. Based on this, we anticipate printing a new low on the Daily and Weekly timeframe, testing previous levels of support.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURCAD

ENTRY PRICE :1.31500

STOP LOSS :1.34000

TAKE PROFIT :1.2900

EXP :7 OCTOBER 2022

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

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Bulls Need to Be Cautious as Weakness Remains

Damon

Summary:

In the daily chart, there is a strong pressure zone between 1350 and 1420, and the price is currently in a rebound trend. It is recommended to go short at highs.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1360.00

Entry Price

1260.00

1430.00

2023.80 +20.89 +1.04%

1000.0

Pips

Profit

1260.00

1258.83

Exit Price

1360.00

Entry Price

1430.00

Hot News

1. Australian pilot CBDC test report will be released in mid-2023.

2. South Korean regulators have fined Gopax and Coinone hundreds of millions of won.

3. Director of the Finance Research Institute of the People's Bank of China: Digital RMB is a cash substitute and more application scenarios will be explored in the future.

4. Binance is seeking a license to operate in Japan.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 21, representing extreme fear. The index was 24 both yesterday and the day before yesterday. The market is currently in a period without important news being released. Although there are expectations of a rebound, the market is severely lacking confidence and is overall weak.

Technical Analysis

ETH starts moving sideways in the small time frame, with some support around 1250 and resistance at 1350. In the daily chart, there is a strong pressure zone between 1350 and 1420, and the price is currently in a rebound trend. It is recommended to go short at highs.

ETH 2-Hour Candlestick Chart

ETH-USDT: Bulls Need to Be Cautious as Weakness Remains_1

ETH Daily Candlestick Chart

ETH-USDT: Bulls Need to Be Cautious as Weakness Remains_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1360

Target price: 1260

Stop loss: 1430

Support: 1250, 1000

Resistance: 1420, 1550

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Oil Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Week on Gloomy Economic Outlook

Eva Chen

Summary:

The Fed sent its clearest signal yet that it is willing to tolerate a recession in exchange for keeping inflation under control. Oil prices fell for the fourth week in a row after major economies successively started a cycle of interest rate hikes that dimmed the outlook for energy demand.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

81.000

Entry Price

77.500

86.000

75.636 +0.540 +0.71%

155.9

Pips

Profit

77.500

79.441

Exit Price

81.000

Entry Price

86.000

Fundamentals

Crude oil was on a weak footing as safe-haven flows were in play for most of the week. A stronger USD from the Fed's third 75 basis point rate hike this year is putting pressure on crude oil and riskier assets. This is because it could translate into lower business, consumption and production activity in the future.

Meanwhile, Asian markets underperformed for the second day in a row. As of writing, the Nikkei 225 is down 0.58%, the ChinaA50 is down 0.30%, and the Hang Seng is down 0.33%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the S&P/ASX200 plunged more than 2% and the DJ New Zealand plunged 1.77%. In addition, U.S. stocks, especially information and technology stocks, are facing huge selling pressure as the Fed's tough interest rate guidance on Wednesday raises the risk of stagnant global economic growth.

Crude oil is on track to record its first quarterly loss in more than two years as the further strengthening of the Fed's tightening measures forced agencies to further downgrade growth expectations, dragging down the demand outlook. And a stronger USD this week has exacerbated the bearish headwinds, making USD-denominated crude more expensive for investors.

Nonetheless, energy markets may gain some support from renewed tensions in Russia and Ukraine after Putin announced the partial mobilization of their military. This means more downward pressure on global crude supplies, which could sometime push prices higher as more sanctions could block crude from entering the EU pipeline.

Overall, crude oil has weakened on a gloomy economic outlook amid a tightening financial environment. Market sentiment remains fragile after the psychological level of $90 proved to be a difficult level to break out of at this time. The current consolidation above $80 is temporary and a breakout on either side will determine the direction in the coming days. Only a break above $90 will turn market sentiment around in the near term. Conversely, a bearish bias could continue to take over after a break below $80.

WTI: Oil Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Week on Gloomy Economic Outlook_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil fell below its previous low of $81.17 on Friday after shaking higher in the European session. The outlook points further to a downtrend.

A lower 100-day SMA than 200-day SMA indicates that the path of least resistance is to the downside, or that support is more likely to break than to hold. If this happens, crude oil could see a drop as high as the height of the box oscillation range.

WTI is currently trading below both of these moving averages, so they could act as dynamic resistance for a retracement. The gap between the indicators is also widening to reflect increased selling pressure.

However, The stochastic oscillator is oversold and looks ready to turn higher, reflecting a possible return of bullish momentum. In this scenario, crude oil may still be able to bounce off the support level and even test the top of the range near the box. A break above this level could lead to a rebound in crude oil prices. It is recommended to go short at highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 81.00

Target Price: 77.50

Stop Loss: 86.00

Valid Until: 2022-10-07 20:00:00

Support: 79.89, 78.20

Resistance: 81.60, 83.87

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

USD's Appreciation Maintains, Short-term Rebounds Should Be Focused

King Ten

Summary:

The reason for the USD's appreciation this year is not only the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy but also the differences in economic and financial factors in other non-US currency countries. The BOJ (Bank of Japan)'s intervention may moderate the USD's rise in the short term.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

112.800

Entry Price

108.350

114.000

103.193 -0.059 -0.05%

120.0

Pips

Loss

108.350

114.046

Exit Price

112.800

Entry Price

114.000

Fundamentals

The USD has been leading for appreciation in recent days. On the one hand, before the announcement of the Fed's decision, Putin ordered Russia to start its first mobilization since World War II, which triggered serious risk aversion sentiment and boosted the USD. In addition, the dot plot shows that the median interest rate surged significantly, boosting the USDX to further break above 112.

On September 22nd, the BOJ entered the market to buy JPY through foreign exchange reserve, making its first foreign exchange intervention since June 1998. Moreover, as possesses the second largest foreign exchange reserve besides China, Japan, with its strong foreign exchange reserves, may ease the short-term pressure on the depreciation of the JPY shortly. As one of the safe-haven currencies, the JPY may also diversify the attention to the USD in the short term.

Technical Analysis

Regarding the daily chart, the USDX is still in the upward channel, near the pressure position on the upper band of the channel. Besides, the KDJ lines form a dead cross and diverge, it is recommended to go short near the pressure position.

USDX: USD's Appreciation Maintains, Short-term Rebounds Should Be Focused _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 112.80

Target price: 108.35

Stop loss: 114.00

Support: 110.26/108.44

Resistance: 113.78/114.50

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Go Short after a Rebound as EUR Is Weak

Jason

Summary:

A strong USD, signs of an escalating regional conflict, and a possible further exacerbation of the energy crisis as well as economic risks all contribute to the EUR's weakness more than ever.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

0.98111

Entry Price

0.97550

0.98421

1.09530 +0.00045 +0.04%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.97550

0.96996

Exit Price

0.98111

Entry Price

0.98421

Fundamentals

The EUR fluctuated on Thursday, closing slightly down 0.03%, falling for three consecutive trading days. The EUR rose as the USD weakened due to the BOJ (Bank of Japan) intervention in the currency market. However, as the USD was supported by multiple factors, it rebounded strongly after falling, putting pressure on the EUR. At the opening of the day, the EUR dropped again due to the appreciation of the USD, refreshing a 20-year low of 0.97671.

The freshly released German Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value for September showed that the German economy's decline has deepened and is likely to contract in the third quarter, suggesting a poor outlook in the fourth quarter. This may intensify fears of a recession in the eurozone.

In addition, the EU will speed up the decision-making process for the eighth round of sanctions against Russia. The new round of sanctions may include capping Russian oil prices, sanctioning more Russian officials, and expanding the scope of direct strikes on the Russian economy. At a time when the Russian-Ukrainian war is showing signs of escalation, the implementation of these measures by the EU may trigger a strong rebound from Russia. Moreover, it may also further exacerbate the European energy crisis, and the economic risks it brings, resulting in a weaker EUR than ever.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the 4-hour chart, the EUR fell below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements (0.98283), starting a new round of decline. Moreover, the strong support below is 0.95871, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracements (0.92170). For indicators, Stoch and DMI show that the short-term decline of the EUR will come to an end. Regarding the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, it exhibits a strong decline in EUR. In general, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound in the EUR, but there is not much profit from chasing shorts, considering that it has fallen by more than 90 points since the opening. It is recommended to short after the rebound of EUR.

EURUSD: Go Short after a Rebound as EUR Is Weak _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 0.98111

Target price: 0.97550

Stop loss: 0.98421

Support: 0.97550/0.96764

Resistance: 0.98000/0.98283/0.98518

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

ETHUSDT: Oscillating Downward and Targeting the 1000 Mark?

Thomas

Central Bank

Summary:

The recent sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been weak. Ether remains bearish and is likely to further drop to the previous low of 1000.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1321.58

Entry Price

1010.00

1520.00

2023.80 +20.89 +1.04%

471.0

Pips

Loss

1010.00

1368.68

Exit Price

1321.58

Entry Price

1520.00

Fundamentals

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points this week as expected, and the dot plot shows that the terminal rate for the year was raised to 4.4% from 3.8% in June. It means that the Fed may raise interest rates by another significant 125 basis points in the remaining two interest rate resolutions this year. And other central banks are also rapidly following the Fed's pace of rate hikes, which has increased the risk of a global economic downturn. Based on a tightening environment and safe-haven demand, risky assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies are at risk of being sold off continuously.

In addition, recent sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been weak. Despite the completion of the Ethereum Merger, the market has largely digested this bullish news previously, and bulls made massive profit-taking. A report by cryptocurrency firm Coinshares shows that Ether was once again the main target being sold off first in the cryptocurrency market last week. In the short term, Ether is still in a long bottoming phase and is likely to have a double dip.

Technical Analysis

ETHUSDT: Oscillating Downward and Targeting the 1000 Mark?_1

In the weekly chart, ETHUSDT has maintained a weak oscillation this week in a smaller range with small trading volumes overall. It is still biased to the downside and is likely to have a double dip.

ETHUSDT: Oscillating Downward and Targeting the 1000 Mark?_2

In the 4H timeframe, ETHUSDT recently has risen slowly but fall sharply. The indicator RSI is still below 50. With a weak trend, the price may further fall below the key support level near 1270, and even continue to test the psychological support level near the 1000 integer mark.

It is recommended to go short with small positions at highs when the price rebounds to near 1350 and stabilizes. The short-term target is located near the support level of 1200, the second target can be set at the 1000 mark, and the stop loss can be located above 1500.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1350

Target price: 1010

Stop loss: 1520

Support: 1000/1270

Resistance: 1380/1480

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Dollar's Rise Remains, Short-term Focus on 111.300

Jason

Summary:

The current rise of the dollar is both affected by the interest rate hike by the Fed and the interest rate difference between the currencies of various countries and the dollar due to policy gaps. Intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could not reverse the dollar's upward trend.

BUY USDX

EXP

EXPIRED

110.300

Entry Price

111.853

110.000

103.193 -0.059 -0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

110.000

113.095

Exit Price

110.300

Entry Price

111.853

Fundamentals

The dollar went on a roller coaster yesterday, plummeting from 111.814 to 110.462 in the sub- and late-session trading. It gave back all the gains in the policy meeting and then quickly rose to 111.454, a slight drop of 0.07% at the close. The reason is that the BOJ entered the market for the first time since 1998 to intervene in the exchange rate of the yen (the yen has depreciated 26% against the dollar this year). The yen recovered sharply from its lows, at one point rising 2.3%. The move is certainly an attempt to dispel any doubts in the markets about the willingness of the Japanese authorities to act.

There is no doubt that the BOJ's desire to support the yen while pursuing its inflation target is almost an unsustainable situation. In addition, the BOJ and the Fed remain at odds on monetary policy, making the yen less attractive as a safe-haven currency than the dollar amid widening interest rate differentials. If the BOJ does not carry out a series of large-scale foreign exchange interventions or does not adjust its monetary policy, it may be difficult to prevent the yen from weakening again, and then it may soon be plunged into a record weakening of the yen again. As long as the Fed maintains its hawkish pace of rate hikes, intervention in the yen may only slow rather than stop the yen's decline. In other words, the BOJ's move is exchanging time for space, that is, to slow down the pace of Japan's depreciation to a certain extent. When the global economic recession or the market forms strong expectations for this, the yen as a haven currency may usher in its own "spring", combined with market expectations of the Fed rate cut in the future.

It should be noted that before the BOJ intervened in the foreign exchange market, the dollar index refreshed a 20-year high and is about to rise further. After the BOJ intervened in the foreign exchange market in late Asian trading hours, the dollar index fell sharply in an instant, with most of the losses concentrated in one hour. In short, the dollar's decline yesterday was influenced by human factors, not a shift in trend. The dollar's rally was intact.

The current rise of the dollar is both affected by the interest rate hike by the Fed and the interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, that is, the interest rate differential will have an impact on the dollar. At the same time, the market's expectation for the economic trends of countries around the world is also an important factor affecting exchange rate fluctuations. At present, the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will continue, while the overall performance of the US economy is still stronger than that of non-US countries. The dollar has further room to rise.

However, there is a potential risk needed to be vigilant, that is, the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market is not a one-time action. For the intervention to work successfully, Japan may become a presence that cannot be ignored shortly, and may frequently enter the market to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the dollar rose strongly again after yesterday's sharp fall, completely recovering yesterday's decline, and was temporarily blocked by 111.853. The bottom support is 111.30, which is the last support for the dollar in 2001 and 2002 when it fell from a high of 120. If it stands firm above this line, it will start a new rally. In the short term, the dollar will be in rally until it falls below 110.873. In terms of indicators, Stoch and DMI both show that the dollar will usher in a round of decline in the short term; the Ichimoku cloud shows that the dollar's rally in the short term is coming to an end.

USDX: Dollar's Rise Remains, Short-term Focus on 111.300_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 110.300

Target Price: 111.853

Stop Loss: 110.00

Support: 111.30, 110.873, 110.309

Resistance: 111.853, 112.372, 112.906

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Warren Takunda

Analyst

Warren Takunda is an experienced financial analyst and CFO at Verge Capital in Dubai, with a proven track record in the finance industry. He leads the finance team and is responsible for financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren has extensive experience in financial modeling and investment analysis, which enables him to provide valuable insights to clients.

Ranking

Articles

477

Win Rate

51.85%

P/L Ratio

1.04

Focus on

XAUUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD

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Clean Wedge Breakout & Retest

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Bulls Need to Be Cautious as Weakness Remains

Hot News

Sentiment

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Oil Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Week on Gloomy Economic Outlook

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD's Appreciation Maintains, Short-term Rebounds Should Be Focused

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Go Short after a Rebound as EUR Is Weak

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

ETHUSDT: Oscillating Downward and Targeting the 1000 Mark?

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Dollar's Rise Remains, Short-term Focus on 111.300

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure