Pullbacks Are Opportunities to Add Positions

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both hit new closing highs, while the Dow Jones narrowed its losses, signaling a potential new rebound for the US30.

BUY US30

EXP

EXPIRED

38680.00

Entry Price

40215.00

38000.00

39582.44 -57.01 -0.14%

Pips

EXPIRED

38000.00

39301.42

Exit Price

38680.00

Entry Price

40215.00

Fundamentals

On Monday morning, the stock market lacked direction in the early trading session but showed a significant increase throughout the trading day. Major stock indices all posted gains, with both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 hitting new closing highs. Although all the major stock indices retreated from their highs at the close, they maintained their strong upward momentum.

Investors initially seemed hesitant to take significant actions as they needed more time to assess recent market activities and near-term prospects. However, buying interest gradually emerged during the trading session, possibly benefiting from the positive sentiment generated last week.

Last week, weaker-than-expected inflation data drove strong gains in the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, but it wasn't until the market closed on Monday that the Dow Jones Index narrowed its losses.

Despite Fed officials predicting only one rate cut this year after last Wednesday's monetary policy meeting, investors still believe that if inflation continues to slow in the coming months, these forecasts may prove to be too conservative.

Meanwhile, some investors remain focused on key economic data scheduled for release this weekend, with retail sales and industrial production reports likely to be the center of attention.

Pullbacks Are Opportunities to Add Positions_1

Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has faced bearish pressure in the near term, but has not shown a new downtrend and recovered the losses from the past two trading days at yesterday's closing. Although the bulls are still constrained by the resistance of the 100-day SMA, the positive upward momentum has supported the slowdown in the decline.

Indeed, a strong uptrend may face some pullback due to ongoing structural issues, but we believe that as long as there is room for a pullback, it will increase opportunities to add more long positions. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 38680

Target Price: 40215

Stop Loss: 38000

Deadline: 2024-07 - 03 23:55:00

Support: 38655, 38560, 38284

Resistance: 38871, 39166, 39224

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Crude oil prices have been boosted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raising its global demand forecast and the World Bank increasing this year's GDP forecast, both indicating increased consumption of fuel and energy commodities.t

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

81.480

Entry Price

76.000

83.170

62.153 +0.062 +0.10%

20.0

Pips

Profit

76.000

81.280

Exit Price

81.480

Entry Price

83.170

Fundamentals

After rising 2% on the previous trading day, WTI Crude prices continued to show strength during the New York session on Tuesday. The current main supporting factors include the improving global demand outlook, and market expectations that global oil-producing countries will curb supply.

The latest oil market reports from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency, and the U.S. Department of Energy show that energy demand will grow steadily in the second half of 2024.

The surge in WTI crude oil prices yesterday also benefited from the overall rise in the value of all risk assets. This is due to a slight easing of inflation pressure in the world's largest economies. These signals are strengthening bets on lower borrowing costs in the coming months.

The proposal has been supported by major OPEC+ countries like Russia and Iraq, who have confirmed their commitment to adhere to agreed production quotas. Saudi Arabia has also indicated a willingness to adjust output based on market conditions.

Technical Analysis

WTI Crude appears to be forming a complex "head and shoulders" pattern in the 4H timeframe, indicating a potential reversal of the long-term downtrend.

The price is currently testing the upper range of the previous high at US$80.39, a breakthrough above this resistance area could propel a rebound of the same height as the pattern. The pattern spans from US$72.50 to US$79.50, hence, in case of a bullish breakout, the medium-term oil price could rise by US$7

Nevertheless, technical indicators still point towards imminent selling pressure returning. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside, despite the narrowing gap between the indicators hinting at a potential bullish crossover.

At the same time, the stochastics have entered the overbought zone, signaling exhaustion of the bullish momentum, hence a downside move indicates selling pressure may resurface. The Relative Strength Index has started to decline, indicating a potential drop in crude oil prices towards nearby support levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 81.48

Target Price: 76.00

Stop Loss: 83.17

Deadline: 2024-07 - 03 23:55:00

Support: 79.55, 77.96, 77.30

Resistance: 80.39, 81.29, 83.08

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Reserve of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, in line with general market expectations. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was "ready" to raise rates.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66534

Entry Price

0.67800

0.65500

0.63648 +0.00084 +0.13%

6.7

Pips

Profit

0.65500

0.66601

Exit Price

0.66534

Entry Price

0.67800

Fundamentals

At the Tuesday meeting, the RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, in line with widespread market expectations. Additionally, the RBA maintained its position of "not ruling out any possibilities," indicating a cautious and open stance amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Despite inflation easing, the RBA noted that the slowdown in inflation is "slower than previously expected" and that inflation is "still high." The RBA acknowledged that it will take "some time" for inflation to remain consistently within the target range.

The RBA also noted that recent economic data has been "mixed," further highlighting the need to "be vigilant about the risks of upward inflation." Hence, the interest rate outlook "remains uncertain."

Over the past two years, the AUDUSD has continuously hit annual lows, indicating increased buying interest during economic downturns.

The strengthening of the USD this month has made it more challenging for the AUD to appreciate, impacting both the strength of the AUD and the prices of Australia's key commodity exports.

Potential buyers are waiting for the AUDUSD to break above the 0.6700 level, with early signs appearing last month. If this trend continues to reverse further, it could break the lower highs sequence seen over the past three years and even reach higher levels since 2011.

A reversal in the tone of monetary policy could stimulate buying interest in the AUDUSD, thus improving the economic outlook. Breaking the long-term downtrend may attract more buyers, leading to a reversal in the trend.

Technical Analysis

While we haven't seen a meaningful reaction from AUDUSD, it is performing better than its major peers. It is losing 0.5% this month against the U.S. Dollar Index, which is strengthening over 1%.

The AUD has not fallen below 0.6600 since early May, making the 50-day SMA an active support line and stabilizing above the 200-day SMA. Both curves are pointing upwards, emphasizing the positive trend. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 0.6621

Target Price: 0.6780

Stop Loss: 0.6550

Deadline: 2024-07 - 03 23:55:00

Support: 0.6624, 0.6609, 0.6585

Resistance: 0.6641, 0.6675, 0.6704

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

External factors and speeches by hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2318.93

Entry Price

2365.00

2265.00

3339.68 +51.51 +1.57%

460.7

Pips

Profit

2265.00

2365.06

Exit Price

2318.93

Entry Price

2365.00

Fundamentals

Monday saw a downtrend in the precious metals market, with gold prices fluctuating and falling back. Starting this week, due to the lack of significant new fundamental news driving the precious metals market, gold traders will focus on external markets, most of which are in a bullish trend.

U.S. Treasury yields edged up slightly while competing asset classes such as stocks have led the U.S. stock index to reach or approach historical highs. These external factors have triggered technical selling in the gold market.

Furthermore, the comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, expressing his fundamental forecast including one more rate cut before the end of the year, continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.

Hawk emphasized the necessity of ongoing assessment, stating, "If everything unfolds as expected, I believe a rate cut before the end of the year is appropriate."

However, he also left room for adjustments based on new economic data, noting, "Regardless of how the data evolves, I think it is quite likely that there will be either two rate cuts this year or no cuts at all... We will still rely on the data."

Hawk believes the current policy rate, which has been stable for nearly 11 months, remains effective in maintaining restrictive conditions to bring inflation back to target levels and mitigate upside risks.

His projections include a slowdown in economic growth but above trend levels, a mild increase in unemployment rates, and a gradual return of inflation to target levels, which he describes as a "long glide".

Bear Market Doesn't Prevail Even Breaking the Triangle Consolidation_1

Technical Analysis

As the market opened on Tuesday, the consolidation of gold prices continues, with no acceleration towards recent lows despite the pressure being sustained for two consecutive trading days. Intraday trading remains within the range of a triangular consolidation.

Investors need to observe price reactions. If selling pressure intensifies and manages to form lower swing lows, the bearish trend will persist for a longer period. The key support is at US$2,277, with bullish momentum still intact above this level. We still recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2303

Target Price: 2365

Stop Loss: 2265

Deadline: 2024-07 - 02 23:55:00

Support: 2316, 2303, 2300, 2291

Resistance: 2342, 2345, 2354, 2365

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Peterson

Forex

Summary:

Today's oscillation range will be 1.065-1.0800, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.06500

Entry Price

1.08000

1.06000

1.13452 +0.00312 +0.28%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.06000

1.07255

Exit Price

1.06500

Entry Price

1.08000

Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (June 18th) Asian session, EURUSD oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 1.072.

The political risk in the European election has not subsided. After 8 months of countervailing duty investigations, the EU's tariff on Chinese EVs (electric vehicles) has finally been raised. On top of the original 10% tariffs, new tariffs of up to 38.1% were imposed on companies of different natures. Europe is the main destination for Chinese EVs. Nearly half (480,000 units or 45%) of China's EVs were exported to Europe in 2023. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce started an anti-dumping investigation into pork from the EU. This is a repeat of Trump's trade war script in 2016, and it would be a lose-lose outcome for China and the EU which are trading partners. Meanwhile, more risks will be added to the EUR. In addition, the results of the two votes on June 30 and July 7 will be crucial, and once the right-wing parties come to power, the French political situation will be even worse. Finally, the EUR will oscillate wider.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD stabilized at 1.07 on Monday and started to rise, which was an extension of Friday's rebound from 1.0670. Although EURUSD rose during the session, it stayed at a low level and faced further declining risks. Once EURUSD plunges below 1.0670, the new support will be at 1.0450. Currently, the daily chart suggests a bearish trend. A strong rebound is expected to start at 1.07. However, the pressure is getting larger. The resistance will be at 1.08, or the 200-day SMA. If the EURUSD breaks through this level, the previous weak trend will be reversed and the EURUSD pair could rebound to 1.10.

Euro's Rally Stymied by China-EU Trade Friction _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.0650

Target price: 1.0800

Stop loss: 1.0600

Support: 1.0700/1.0650

Resistance: 1.0750/1.0800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices soared unexpectedly without sufficient consolidation. This trend may not be sustainable in the lack of a strong catalyst.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

80.000

Entry Price

76.200

81.200

62.153 +0.062 +0.10%

120.0

Pips

Loss

76.200

81.204

Exit Price

80.000

Entry Price

81.200

Fundamentals

Recently, with the arrival of the peak tourism consumption season in the northern hemisphere, reports from the three major energy agencies, OPEC, IEA, and EIA, have raised confidence in oil demand improving and inventories decreasing in the second half of the year. As a result, the previous haze has been swept away. In response to the volatility of the crude oil market, OPEC+ has repeatedly assured that it may suspend or cancel the plan to gradually restore supply from October this year according to market conditions, which also helps oil prices remain firm.

In addition, investors remain concerned about a wider war in the Middle East. The Israeli military claimed on Sunday that the Lebanese Allah Party intensified its fire on the Israeli cross-border, which could lead to a serious escalation of the conflict. The rise in geopolitical risk premiums also supported oil prices.

However, with the improvement in supply and demand expectations mentioned above already being priced in advance, oil prices may lack stronger momentum to surge higher in the short term. This week, important data such as US retail sales and PMI will be released, which will also lead to volatility in oil prices.

Technical Analysis

A Correction Is Imminent After a Surprised V-Shape Reversal_1

Judging from the daily chart, oil prices have recently rebounded in a V-shape unexpectedly, which is symmetrical to the movements in early February. Before this, oil prices had risen and fallen continuously. At the beginning of June, oil prices even plunged. Just when the market generally believed that oil prices would continue such a strong correction, oil prices suddenly soared, recovering most of their previous declines in less than half a month, and completing the breakthrough of the downward trend line. At the moment, oil prices have turned bullish.

However, it would be difficult to sustain the rapid growth without a stronger driving force. In other words, the bullish structure is not solid. Currently, the trend has the potential to show a head and shoulders bottom pattern. However, as the price may oscillate at the previous high level symmetrical to the left shoulder, traders should be cautious about chasing the uptrend.

Traders are advised to buy low and sell high. When the price rebounds to around 80.0, you can also try to take short positions. The target can be set around 76.0, and the stop loss can be placed above 81.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 80.0

Target Price: 76.2

Stop Loss: 81.2

Support: 77.5/76.0

Resistance: 80.0/81.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

The oscillation range during the day will be 2210-2342, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2312.99

Entry Price

2342.00

2308.00

3339.68 +51.51 +1.57%

49.9

Pips

Loss

2308.00

2307.93

Exit Price

2312.99

Entry Price

2342.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated downward and is currently trading around 2323.

Yesterday, Fed official Patrick Harker said one interest-rate cut is appropriate for this year if the economy develops as expected. Affected by his hawkish remarks, gold fell to 2310, but it then rebounded in a V-shape, which recovered all losses and moved above 2320 again. At present, the volatility of gold prices has decreased significantly, and the probability of a short-term rebound has increased as the price is resilient now. Investors need to focus on today's US retail sales data. At the same time, it is also necessary to keep an eye on the upcoming US data and Fed officials' speeches this week, so as to collect more clues on the outlook for monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

Gold rebounded from 2310 last night and has now risen as high as 2325. We expect gold prices to move upward to a high of 2335 today, so traders can be bullish on gold. It may continue to fluctuate currently, and we should pay attention to the impact of data.

Judging from the daily timeframe, the gold price is expected to be bullish in the big cycle. After bottoming out from 2287, gold prices have fluctuated at low levels for several consecutive trading days. Although the price has not taken a firm foothold above the middle Bollinger band for the time being, the bottom pattern has been established. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before it rises. If the price can stand above the middle Bollinger band on Tuesday and Wednesday, it can rise this week to the top of the upper Bollinger band near 2378. During the day, the support is at the hourly timeframe lows of 2310-2315. Traders can take short-term long positions in the 2310-2315 area in Asian and European sessions, waiting for the uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2313

Target Price: 2342

Stop Loss: 2308

Support: 2310.000/2300.000

Resistance: 2335.000/2342.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

China–U.S. Trade War

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Pullbacks Are Opportunities to Add Positions

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Beware of a Pullback after the Surge

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Buy the Dips with the Strong Support

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Bear Market Doesn't Prevail Even Breaking the Triangle Consolidation

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Euro's Rally Stymied by China-EU Trade Friction

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A Correction Is Imminent After a Surprised V-Shape Reversal

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Traders Can Buy Gold as It's Resilient

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure