Peterson

Today (Friday, March 29) is Good Friday, a day commemorating the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. Several major investment markets worldwide are closed, resulting in no trading activity for gold, crude oil, and relatively subdued trading for other forex currency pairs. Here, we'll review the market performance for this week and provide an outlook for the next week.

On October 4, Kevin McCarthy, US House Speaker and the No.2 person in the US who actually has real power, was removed by voting. It was he who abandoned the principle, gave up the previous idea of deep cuts in fiscal spending, compromised with the Biden administration, and extended the time of the government shutdown, which led to the rebellion of his party. Perhaps McCarthy is already heralding an inflection point that is coming sooner.

The hottest topics these days are the U.S. Treasury Securities and crude oil. The yield of the U.S. Treasury Securities continues to rise, but the inverted phenomenon has improved. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the price of copper keeps falling. The "copper-to-oil ratio" hit a new low in the past year. Does it indicate the risk of recession?

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) rose for 11 weeks in a row, and the rebound of spot gold was also blocked. The price of gold once again fell to US$1,860 and also fell below the overall operating range of US$1,884-1,990. The panic caused by long-term concerns about high interest rates is the main reason. However, we could hold an optimistic outlook, as gold prices might rise towards the sun in the darkest moment.

Crude oil retraced to 77.5. In the context of production cuts, concerns about a gap between supply and demand stimulated oil prices higher. So, oil prices are about to soar? Currently, the market is almost completely bullish. However, we need to stay rational moderately.

Oil prices have continued their pullback for many days, and many people will ask whether the pullback is sufficient. Is it a pullback or a reversal? Perhaps the rising logic of oil prices has changed.