Russia-Ukraine Peace Enters Final Sprint; RBNZ Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points

New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Wednesday, its lowest level since mid-2022, but policymakers signalled the likely end to the easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of picking up.

The New Zealand dollar jumped as traders sharply trimmed expectations for any further rate cuts, with the central bank saying the board had debated between holding rates and delivering another cut.

"Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolve," the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in its accompanying monetary policy statement - the last of the year and the final meeting under governor Christian Hawkesby before Swedish economist Anna Breman takes over in December.

The RBNZ is now forecasting the cash rate will be at 2.20% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.65% in the fourth quarter of 2027. This is lower than had been expected in August, but the path suggests a hawkish tilt as the door to further easing has been virtually shut.

The New Zealand dollar rallied 0.7% to $0.5661, the highest in over a week, while two-year interest rate swaps rose 4 basis points to 2.6251% as the market sharply scaled back chances of further rate cuts.

The decision matched a Reuters poll in which all but four of the 36 economists surveyed forecast the RBNZ would cut the cash rate by a quarter point.

The central bank, which surprised markets by slashing rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points in October, has delivered 325 basis points worth of easing since August 2024 to shore up an economy that has contracted in three of the last five quarters.

The statement said risks to the inflation outlook are balanced and noted that while economic activity was weak over mid-2025, it is picking up as lower interest rates are encouraging household spending.

HURDLE TO FURTHER CUTS HIGH

Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank, said the door to further easing is "not as wide as many would have expected."

"The RBNZ was a bit more cautious than generally expected," he said, adding a further cut can only be expected if the economy underperforms.

The New Zealand central bank's guarded approach aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia, which held policy steady this month after three rate cuts this year, saying it was cautious about easing further given higher inflation.

The RBNZ minutes of the meeting said the committee had considered holding the cash rate unchanged at 2.50% or cutting by 25 basis points, with five of the six members voting to cut the cash rate.

A global front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus, the RBNZ lifted rates 525 basis points between October 2021 and September 2023 to curb inflation in the most aggressive tightening since the official cash rate was introduced in 1999.

Some economists, though, and critics blame the central bank's rapid-fire tightening and a delay in embarking on rate cuts for the prolonged economic gloom. The South Pacific island's economy slipped into recession last year, and it contracted again sharply in the second quarter of this year, prompting the outsized October rate cut.

Growth remains weak despite the steady monetary stimulus, undermined by low confidence and a housing market in the doldrums following a sharp downturn in the wake of the earlier rate hikes. A slowdown in the global economy, rising unemployment and the government's tight fiscal stance have all added to New Zealand's woes.

The central bank is expecting the economy to have grown 0.4% in the third quarter and expand 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

Source: Investing

Energy – Peace talks put pressure energy markets

The oil market came under further pressure as hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to grow. While there have been positive signals from both the US and Ukraine towards a deal, comments from Moscow suggest they will reject a deal if it deviates from what was discussed in Alaska between President Trump and President Putin. We are likely to get more colour on Russia's stance in the coming days, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff set to visit Moscow.

American Petroleum Institute numbers released overnight show that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.9m barrels over the last week, less than the 2.4m barrels decline the market expected. Gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 500k barrels and 800k barrels, respectively. Overall, the numbers are largely neutral, with a smaller-than-expected decline in crude inventories and a less-than-expected increase in gasoline inventories.

The ICE gasoil crack continued to weaken yesterday. It fell towards $28/bbl, down from more than $38/bbl last Tuesday. Timespreads in gasoil eased over the last week, falling from more than $43/t to a little over $27/t yesterday. A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would possibly remove, or at least reduce, a key supply risk for the diesel market related to sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure.

European gas prices continued to sell off, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 1.2% lower on the day, leaving the market at an 18-month low. Peace talks will put pressure on the market, while weather forecasts point to milder-than-usual conditions in early December. Weakness in the European market has widened the Japan-Korea-Marker-TTF spread. If this trend continues, we could see LNG flows into Europe start to slow.

Metals - LME copper nears $11,000/t

Industrial metals extended gains in yesterday's trading, with LME copper approaching the $11,000/t level amid a weakening US dollar. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting are growing once again. The market is pricing in a probability of more than 80% of a cut, up from around 30% a week ago.

Supply-side dynamics added additional support to copper. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is pushing for a sharp increase in annual premiums for refined copper deliveries to Chinese customers. Market sources suggest offers of $335/t over LME prices for 2026 contracts, with some buyers reportedly quoted as high as $350/t during negotiations in Shanghai, Bloomberg reported. This represents a dramatic jump from the $89/t premium agreed for 2025, underscoring concerns of a potential shortage. Last week, Codelco offered a record $330/t premium to South Korean clients.

Meanwhile, investor positioning reflects caution. According to the latest LME Commitments of Traders Report (COTR) for the week ending 21 November, net long positions in aluminium fell by 14,978 lots to 111,129 lots. This marks the least bullish position since early July. Copper saw net bullish bets decline by 10,500 lots to 64,853 lots, the lowest since late September. Zink positions were trimmed for a second consecutive week, down 2,774 lots to 28,638 lots, the weakest since mid-October.

Source: ING

Key points:

China's Great Wall Motoris targeting annual production of 300,000 vehicles by 2029 in Europe where it is scouting locations for its first car plant in a battle to revive flagging regional sales, a company executive said.

GWM teams are weighing up sites for the factory in Spain and Hungary, among other countries, Parker Shi, president of GWM International, told Reuters at the company's headquarters in Baoding in the northern province of Hebei.

He was delivering the first update on privately-owned GWM's ambitions for European production since 2023, when its President Mu Feng said the company had big plans for the region and had begun site selection for a plant.

Reuters is reporting the annual European production target of 300,000 for the first time.

LABOUR, LOGISTICS COSTS AMONG TOP CONCERNS

Labour and logistics costs are among the myriad considerations complicating the choice of location, as GWM will initially need to ship components to the target market for assembly, Shi said this week.

The automaker is also monitoring the European Union's industrial policies, with an eye to changes in the investment climate and custom duties.

"All the business cases need to be workable," said Shi, who has kept an international focus since joining the automaker in 2002. "Otherwise, it will be difficult for us because it's going to be a huge investment for a long term."

Chinese automakers are increasingly looking to expand overseas as a way of escaping a brutal, prolonged price war touched off by domestic overcapacity.

However, their efforts to boost sales in Europe and other major auto markets have met with higher tariffs on electric vehicles, where Chinese brands are most competitive.

In Europe specifically, GWM needs to wrest market share from entrenched incumbents as well as aggressive Chinese rivals such as BYD.

Reuters has reported that BYD considers Spain the top candidate for a third European plant, besides manufacturing facilities in Hungary and Turkey. GWM currently operates overseas plants in Russia, Thailand and Brazil.

'EVERYTHING NEEDS TO SPEED UP'

New car registrations in Europe under GWM's EV brand Ora, which form the bulk of its regional sales, slipped 41% to 3,706 vehicles last year, according to JATO Dynamics, despite record overseas sales totalling 453,141 vehicles.

With the company having set itself a target of 1 million vehicles in overseas sales annually by 2030, Shi said, "That's why we're speeding up the European strategy." He added, "Everything needs to speed up."

Europe still has great potential for Chinese brands across all powertrains, he said, and GWM's planned factory will build vehicles across the spectrum from conventional engines to fully electric.

The company aims to appeal to mainstream consumers in Europe with new models such as a multi-powertrain version of the Ora 5 compact SUV that it plans to launch in mid-2026.

GWM has begun taking pre-orders for the all-electric Ora 5 on its home turf from 109,800 yuan ($15,480). Pricing for the European version has yet to be announced.

Source: TradingView

Amazon's new MK30 Prime Air drone is displayed during Amazon's "Delivering the Future" event at the company's BFI1 Fulfillment Center, Robotics Research and Development Hub in Sumner, Washington on Oct. 18, 2023.

Amazon is facing a federal probe after one of its delivery drones downed an internet cable in central Texas last week.

The probe comes as Amazon vies to expand drone deliveries to more pockets of the U.S., more than a decade after it first conceived the aerial distribution program, and faces stiffer competition from Walmart, which has also begun drone deliveries.

The incident occurred on Nov. 18 around 12:45 p.m. Central in Waco, Texas. After dropping off a package, one of Amazon's MK30 drones was ascending out of a customer's yard when one of its six propellers got tangled in a nearby internet cable, according to a video of the incident viewed and verified by CNBC.

The video shows the Amazon drone shearing the wire line. The drone's motor then appeared to shut off and the aircraft landed itself, with its propellers windmilling slightly on the way down, the video shows. The drone appeared to remain in tact beyond some damage to one of its propellers.

The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating the incident, a spokesperson confirmed. The National Transportation Safety Board said the agency is aware of the incident but has not opened a probe into the matter.

Amazon confirmed the incident to CNBC, saying that after clipping the internet cable, the drone performed a "safe contingent landing," referring to the process that allows its drones to land safely in unexpected conditions.

"There were no injuries or widespread internet service outages. We've paid for the cable line's repair for the customer and have apologized for the inconvenience this caused them," an Amazon spokesperson told CNBC, noting that the drone had completed its package delivery.

The incident comes after federal investigators last month opened a separate probe into a crash involving two of Amazon's Prime Air drones in Arizona. The two aircrafts collided with a construction crane in Tolleson, a city west of Phoenix, prompting Amazon to temporarily halt drone deliveries in the area.

For over a decade, Amazon has been working to realize founder Jeff Bezos' vision of drones whizzing toothpaste, books and other goods to customers' doorsteps in 30 minutes or less. The company began drone deliveries in 2022 in College Station, Texas, and Lockeford, California.

But progress has been slowed by a mix of regulatory hurdles, missed deadlines and layoffs in 2023 that coincided with broader cost-cutting efforts by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy.

The company has previously said its goal is to deliver 500 million packages by drone per year by the end of the decade.

The hexacopter-shaped MK30, the latest generation of Amazon's Prime Air drone, is meant to be quieter, smaller and lighter than previous versions.

Amazon says the drones are equipped with a sense-and-avoid system that enables them to "detect and stay away from obstacles in the air and on the ground." The company recommends that customers maintain "about 10 feet of open space" on their property so drones can complete deliveries

The company began drone deliveries in Waco earlier this month for customers within a certain radius of its same-day delivery site who order eligible items weighing 5 pounds or less. The drone deliveries are supposed to drop packages off in under an hour.

Amazon has brought other locations online in recent months, including Kansas City, Missouri, Pontiac, Michigan, San Antonio, Texas, and Ruskin, Florida. Amazon has also announced plans to expand drone deliveries to Richardson, Texas.

Walmart began offering drone deliveries in 2021, and currently partners with Alphabet's Wing and venture-backed startup Zipline to make drone deliveries in a number of states, including in Texas.

Source: CNBC

Wall Street index futures steadied on Tuesday evening after increasing conviction in a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve spurred strong gains during the main session.

But markets were seen turning slightly cautious before the release of key inflation data on Wednesday, which is likely to factor into the Fed's plans for rates.

A mixed performance in tech stocks also dampened some gains in Wall Street, as reports that Alphabet's Google was planning to produce its own artificial intelligence chips rattled shares of established chipmakers, especially market major Nvidia.

S&P 500 Futures were flat at 6,781.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures were flat at 25,079.75 points by 18:45 ET (23:45 GMT). Dow Jones Futures steadied at 47,199.0 points.

Wall St ends higher on Alphabet boost; Dec rate cut bets grow even further

Futures steadied after a positive session on Wall Street, as risk appetite was boosted by the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates next month.

In-line producer inflation data and weaker-than-expected retail sales data for September also drove some hopes that inflation was cooling, which in turn gives the Fed more headroom to cut. Two Fed officials also spoke in support of a December easing since Friday.

Markets are pricing in a 80.2% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 9-10 meeting, up sharply from a 43.4% chance seen last week, CME Fedwatch showed.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) extended gains to a record high, while Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) surged nearly 4% on a report that Meta and Google were in talks over using the latter's AI chips.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), however, extended its recent decline, falling 2.6% after briefly hitting a two-month low during the session. The chipmaker was also down 0.6% in aftermarket trade.

Smaller rival AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) slid 4.2% on Tuesday and lost another 1% in aftermarket trade. Other AI chips and server stocks also moved in a flat-to-low range, on concerns over competition from Google.

Tech and AI-linked stocks were nursing steep losses through November as investors fretted over a valuation bubble in the sector. Recent positive earnings from Nvidia did little to soothe said concerns.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 6,765.88 points. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.7% to 23,025.59 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 47,112.14 points on Tuesday.

PCE inflation data awaited for more Fed cues

Focus on Wednesday will be squarely on PCE price index data for September.

The print is the preferred inflation gauge of the Fed, and is expected to offer the most definitive cues on U.S. inflation before the Fed meets in December. Core PCE inflation is expected to read well above the Fed's 2% annual target.

But some Fed officials said that cutting rates to support the labor market took precedence over inflation, and that price pressures are also expected to cool further in the coming months.

Still, the central bank is unlikely to have any official readings for October going into December's meeting. This notion had fueled earlier expectations for a hold.

Source: Investing

President Donald Trump offered support to FBI Director Kash Patel on Tuesday, after news outlet MS NOW reported that Trump was considering ousting Patel from his current role.

"He is doing a great job I think," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One when asked about the report.

The White House earlier denied that Trump was considering removing Patel.

MS NOW, citing three unidentified people with knowledge of the situation, said in an online report that Trump and his top aides had grown increasingly frustrated by the unflattering headlines Patel has generated.

They have confided to allies that Trump is weighing removing Patel and considering Andrew Bailey, the FBI's co-deputy director, as his replacement, according to MS NOW, formerly MSNBC.

FBI directors by law are appointed to 10-year terms as a means of insulating the bureau from politics, and are subject to confirmation by the Senate.

Patel, a Trump loyalist who during the president's first term advised both the director of national intelligence and the secretary of defense, has previously called for stripping the FBI of its intelligence-gathering role and purging its ranks of any employee who refuses to support Trump's agenda.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on X that the MS NOW story was "completely made up." She posted a photo of Trump and Patel that she said was taken in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Leavitt said Trump and Patel were in a meeting when the report was published, and the president reacted to it by laughing and saying, "What? That's totally false. Come on Kash, let's take a picture to show them you're doing a great job!"

MS NOW said it stood behind its reporting.

More than 200 people have been fired from the Justice Department, of which the FBI is a part, since Trump took office for his second term in January. Of those, dozens worked on criminal cases related to Trump or his allies.

Source: Reuters