Why the Malaysian Ringgit Continues to Outperform Asia

Michael Ross

Data Interpretation

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Malaysia's ringgit strengthens, propelled by robust growth, strategic investments, and fiscal discipline.

The Malaysian ringgit, Asia's top-performing currency over the past year, may have more room to strengthen, according to Second Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan. Citing the country's robust economic performance, he signaled that growth forecasts could be revised upward.

In a Feb. 4 interview with Bloomberg TV, Amir stated that the ringgit was undervalued in 2025 and the market is now adjusting to that reality. He noted that inflows into Malaysia's equity and bond markets in January helped strengthen the currency, a trend he expects will continue.

"I think the ringgit still has potential because growth is still intact in this country and it's still growing well," he commented. This follows a prediction he made four months earlier, correctly forecasting the currency would strengthen past the four-per-dollar mark against the US dollar.

Malaysia's Economy Defies Global Headwinds

For now, Malaysia’s economy has proven resilient in the face of US tariffs, a factor that prompted the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate steady since July. The nation's economic momentum is outpacing much of Southeast Asia, supported by resilient domestic demand.

Key drivers include strong investment flows into several high-growth sectors:

• Electronics

• Data centers

• Energy transition projects

These investments are helping to cushion the economy from turbulence in global trade.

Strong GDP Growth Fuels Currency Rally

Malaysia's economic expansion hit 4.9% in 2025, exceeding the government's own forecast of 4% to 4.8%. While the official forecast for 2026 is a more moderate 4% to 4.5%, Amir expressed optimism that Bank Negara Malaysia might revise this estimate upward in the coming months. He also added that he sees no catalyst for inflation to rise this year.

This strong economic foundation is translating directly into currency performance. The ringgit has gained 3% in 2026, building on a 10% surge in 2025. This rally is attributed to structural factors like investment flows and growth momentum, not just the broad weakness of the US dollar.

Fiscal Consolidation Bolsters Investor Confidence

The government is also focused on improving its fiscal health to attract investors. Malaysia aims to narrow its budget deficit to 3.5% of gross domestic product in 2026, down from a target of 3.8% in 2025. Amir noted that the 3.8% target for 2025 was "within reach," with final numbers expected by the end of February.

To achieve this, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's administration is counting on better tax collection and reduced subsidy spending, even as it contends with lower petroleum-related revenue and a relative slowdown in growth.

Amir emphasized that the government is deliberately reducing its reliance on oil and gas revenues. He stated that the current oil price range was already factored into the budget.

"The key for Malaysia was the diversification," he explained. "The more we push for economic diversification, the more we improve our fiscal space and tax collections, the resilience of the fiscal space of the government is much better."

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Silver’s Collapse Signals A Sudden Shift In Market Mood

Silver prices experienced an abrupt reversal on Thursday, plunging as much as 17% and wiping out a two-day recovery that had followed one of the most violent routs in the metal’s trading history. After briefly trading above $90 an ounce during early Asian hours, spot silver retreated sharply, falling more than one third from its all-time high reached on January 29. The scale and speed of the decline highlight how fragile market confidence had become after a rally that advanced too rapidly and relied heavily on speculative momentum.

This sharp move reflects a broader deterioration in investor sentiment rather than a single fundamental trigger. According to Christopher Wong of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., weakening confidence across equities and metals has created a feedback loop, with falling prices reinforcing risk aversion amid thin liquidity conditions. In such an environment, price discovery becomes distorted, amplifying downside moves once selling pressure accelerates.

Gold And Base Metals Caught In The Downdraft

The sell-off was not confined to silver. Spot gold dropped as much as 3.5% in volatile trading, while copper slid more than 1%, slipping below $13,000 a ton. These moves suggest a strong correlation between precious and base metals during periods of heightened risk reduction, rather than isolated supply-demand dynamics within individual markets. As investors reassessed exposure across commodities, the liquidation spilled over into assets that had previously benefited from the same speculative enthusiasm.

Last month’s surge in precious metals was driven by a combination of speculative momentum, geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns over the independence of the U.S. central bank. Investors accumulated large positions, reinforced by heavy inflows into leveraged exchange-traded products and aggressive call-option buying. This buildup created an asymmetric risk profile, where even modest selling pressure could trigger outsized price moves.

When prices began to fall sharply during Asian trading hours last Friday, the unwinding process intensified. Although dip-buying provided temporary support earlier this week, it failed to establish a durable floor. The renewed collapse indicates that speculative positions continue to unwind, a relationship better described as correlation between leveraged exposure and volatility rather than a direct reaction to new macroeconomic data.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty Adds To Volatility

Markets are also digesting the policy implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair. President Donald Trump stated that he would not have nominated Warsh had he favored interest rate hikes, reinforcing expectations of further monetary easing. In theory, lower interest rates support non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. However, in the near term, uncertainty around policy direction has increased volatility rather than providing clear support.

Analysts at Standard Chartered Plc noted that gold prices are likely to remain unstable until there is greater clarity on the monetary outlook. They also pointed out that redemptions from exchange-traded products may continue to pressure prices in the short run, even as longer-term structural drivers remain intact.

Why Silver’s Swings Are Exceptionally Large

Silver has historically been more volatile than gold due to its smaller market size and lower liquidity. Recent price action, however, stands out even by those standards. Heavy speculative inflows combined with thinner over-the-counter trading conditions magnified price fluctuations, turning normal corrections into extreme swings. Bloomberg strategists highlighted the importance of the $70 level as a psychological threshold, warning that a sustained move into the $60s could deepen risk aversion across asset classes.

As of midday trading in Singapore, silver had fallen 12.7% to $76.99 an ounce, while spot gold slipped 1.7% to $4,881.35. With speculative excess still being unwound and monetary policy uncertainty unresolved, precious metals are likely to remain volatile in the near term. While longer-term drivers such as geopolitical risk and accommodative policy expectations may eventually reassert themselves, current price behavior suggests markets are still in the process of recalibrating after a rally that moved faster than underlying fundamentals could support.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Gerik

Political

Funding Deadline Raises Stakes In Immigration Debate

With Department of Homeland Security funding scheduled to expire on February 13, immigration enforcement has re-emerged as a central flashpoint in Washington’s budget negotiations. While Congress approved a broader federal spending package earlier this week, lawmakers only extended DHS funding on a short-term basis, signaling unresolved disagreements over how immigration authorities should operate under the current administration. This compressed timeline has increased political pressure on both parties to clarify their positions, even as the prospects for compromise remain uncertain.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries formally presented their opening position in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The proposal outlines ten measures intended to constrain Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, framing the issue around civil liberties, accountability, and the use of public funds.

Their demands include limits on officers entering private property without judicial warrants, requirements to verify citizenship status before detention, mandatory use of body cameras and identification badges, and restrictions on officers covering their faces. The letter also calls for barring enforcement actions near schools, hospitals, churches, courts, and polling places, alongside protections against stops based on occupation, language, accent, or race. Democrats further propose expanded officer training, stricter detention facility standards, and clearer coordination rules between federal agents and state or local authorities. In their framing, these measures are presented as safeguards against community disruption rather than a rejection of immigration enforcement itself.

Republican Pushback And Negotiation Dynamics

Republican response has been swift and critical. Senator Katie Britt, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and a designated negotiator for her party, publicly dismissed the Democratic proposal as unrealistic and politically performative. Her reaction highlights the broader skepticism within Republican ranks, even though some individual elements, such as body cameras and additional training, have previously drawn bipartisan interest.

Any final agreement faces significant procedural hurdles. A funding deal must secure a majority in the House, at least 60 votes in the Senate, and the signature of President Donald Trump. These thresholds underscore how even modest policy disagreements can stall progress when margins are tight and political incentives diverge.

Recent Incidents Add Political Pressure

The funding dispute has been shaped by recent high-profile incidents involving federal immigration officers. The death of U.S. citizen Alex Pretti during a confrontation with Border Patrol officers in Minneapolis, followed weeks later by the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent, intensified scrutiny of enforcement practices. These events amplified political backlash from both parties and elevated public attention ahead of the funding talks.

In response to mounting criticism, the Trump administration moved to scale back its operations in Minneapolis, with DHS announcing the removal of roughly 700 officers from the city in an effort to reduce tensions. President Trump acknowledged the controversy in a televised interview, suggesting that enforcement tactics may require adjustment while maintaining a firm overall stance on immigration.

As negotiations continue, the Democratic proposal functions less as a final blueprint and more as an opening signal of priorities. The debate reflects broader tensions over immigration enforcement philosophy, civil liberties, and executive authority, all unfolding under the pressure of an imminent funding deadline. Whether the two sides can bridge their differences in time will determine not only DHS funding continuity but also the near-term direction of federal immigration enforcement policy.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

Risk-off sentiment intensified in US tech sector overnight, with another down day in the NASDAQ. The move reflected growing unease rather than a single catalyst, as investors continue to reassess the implications of artificial intelligence for earnings, valuations, and capital discipline. That weakness carried into Asia, where Japanese and Korean equities saw steep declines.

So far, traditional and non-tech stocks have shown greater resilience. That divergence supports the narrative that markets are undergoing sector rotation rather than a full-blown risk-off episode. However, whether that insulation can hold if tech pressure persists remains an open question.

Several overlapping themes are driving the current reassessment. The first is growing concern that AI represents a competitive threat to software companies rather than a pure growth catalyst. Software firms long valued for sticky subscriptions and predictable renewals are now under scrutiny. Investors are questioning whether AI-driven automation could compress pricing, reduce switching costs, and lower barriers to entry for new competitors.

A second theme is the rapidly escalating cost of AI investment. Alphabet reported solid results, but its projected capital expenditure of USD 175–185 billion for this year came in well above expectations and rattled investors. The concern is not isolated. Alphabet and its Big Tech peers are expected to collectively spend more than USD 500 billion on AI this year. The scale of spending is forcing investors to question near-term returns. With monetization timelines uncertain, aggressive outlays are increasingly seen as a drag on free cash flow rather than a guarantee of future dominance.

A third pressure point came from the semiconductor space. AMD suffered its worst single-day decline since 2017 after delivering a lackluster forecast. Expectations had been high for a stronger outlook driven by AI demand and data center expansion. The reaction highlighted that even the chip subsector is not immune to broader market sensitivity. AI exposure alone is no longer sufficient to insulate companies from disappointment if guidance falls short.

In FX markets, the shift in sentiment has favored defensive currencies. Both Dollar and Yen found support in Asian session, while Aussie and kiwi softened. Euro and Sterling were mixed as markets awaited policy decisions from the ECB and the BOE.

Despite the daily moves, weekly performance still shows a different ranking. Aussie remains the strongest currency so far this week, followed by Dollar and Sterling. Yen continues to lag at the bottom, trailed by Swiss Franc and Kiwi, while Euro and Loonie sit in the middle.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.86%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.95%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.83%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.27%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.012 at 2.239. Overnight, DOW rose 0.53%. S&P 500 fell -0.51%. NASDAQ fell -1.51%. 10-year yield rose 0.001 to 2.750.

EUR/GBP sits at 0.86 key support, awaits ECB and BoE guidance

EUR/GBP is sitting at a key technical and macro junction around 0.86 level as markets head into rate decisions from the ECB and the BoE. While neither meeting is expected to deliver an immediate policy shift, both carry important signals that could shape expectations and positioning in the cross.

Both central banks are widely expected to stand pat. The ECB is set to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%, while the BoE is expected to leave Bank Rate steady at 3.75%. With these results fully priced in, the focus is firmly on guidance rather than the decisions themselves.

For the ECB, President Christine Lagarde is likely to repeat that policy is in a "good place." There is little appetite within the Governing Council to debate changes to borrowing costs in the near term, reinforcing expectations of an extended pause.

Near-term inflation has softened, slipping to just 1.7% in January and potentially easing further in coming months. However, that downside surprise has not meaningfully altered the ECB's broader inflation outlook. One reason is energy. The recent rebound in oil prices, if sustained, would offset much of the disinflationary impact from Euro strength. That reduces any urgency for the ECB to respond to near-term CPI weakness.

Inflation expectations also remain a concern. The ECB's latest Consumer Expectations Survey showed five-year inflation expectations rising to 2.4% in December, the highest since the survey began. Shorter- and medium-term expectations also edged higher, supporting the ECB's view that inflation could reaccelerate.

As a result, the ECB appears comfortable with a prolonged pause, with the next move still more likely to be a hike than a cut. One key focus today will be whether Lagarde references recent Dollar weakness and the EUR/USD exchange rate, particularly around the recently tested 1.20 level.

In the UK, the policy picture is more fractured. The BoE's December rate cut passed by a narrow 5–4 vote, underscoring deep divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee. UK inflation remains elevated, with December's 3.4% reading the highest among G7 economies. While inflation is expected to move back toward the 2% target, some policymakers remain concerned that underlying pressures are still too strong.

Market pricing reflects that caution. Investors largely expect no move until at least April, and possibly not until July, a much slower pace of easing than seen in 2025. As usual, the MPC vote split will be closely watched for clues on the balance between hawks and doves.

Technically, EUR/GBP is testing a critical support cluster near 0.86. The favored view is that the rebound from the 0.8221 (2024 low was corrective) and may have completed at 0.8863 after failing near 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 (2024 low) at 0.8867. Decisive break below the 0.8631 support zone (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618, and 55 W EMA at 0.8625) would confirm bearish reversal.

However, downside confirmation is still lacking. If EUR/GBP finds firm support around current levels and stages a convincing rebound, a break above 0.8744 resistance would suggest that the fall from 0.8863 was merely a corrective pullback. In that scenario, the rise from 0.8221 would likely be resuming, with scope to extend toward through 0.8863 towards 0.9267 in the medium term.

Fed's Cook says inflation risks skewed higher, tariffs key wildcard

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said risks are currently "tilted toward higher inflation," explaining why she supported the FOMC's decision to hold interest rates steady at last week's meeting.

Cook noted in a speech that understanding why inflation leveled off in 2025 requires looking beneath the headline. Disinflation has continued in housing services, while non-housing services inflation has also eased, consistent with a labor market that is no longer as tight as before.

The area of concern, however, lies in "core good prices". Cook highlighted a notable pickup in goods inflation, largely driven by last year's tariff increases on a wide range of imported products.

While anchored inflation expectations suggest tariff effects should amount to a "one-time rise" in the price level, Cook stressed that uncertainty remains high. The "future direction of tariff policy is unclear", and it is uncertain how quickly price increases will fully pass through or whether they risk influencing expectations.

Until clearer evidence emerges that inflation is moving sustainably back toward target, Cook said inflation is "where my focus will be", barring unexpected changes in the labor market.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6966; (P) 0.7004; (R1) 0.7037;

AUD/USD dips mildly today as range trading continues and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next. However, break of 0.6907 will bring lengthier consolidations before rally resumption. Deeper pullback would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.6420 to 0.7093 at 0.6836.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin slumped nearly 8% on Thursday to hit lows near $70,000 levels, as thinning liquidity and a broad sell-off in global technology stocks triggered renewed pressure on risk assets.

The world's largest cryptocurrency last traded 7.6% lower at $70,427.1 by 00:28 ET (05:28 GMT), remaining at its lowest levels since early November 2024.

It plunged to as low as $70,129.6 earlier in the session.

Bitcoin has declined in seven of the last eight trading sessions, shedding over 40% from the record peak near $126,000 reached in October.

Bitcoin slumps amid thinning liquidity, stocks sell off

Reports showed that liquidity was notably thin, amplifying price moves and contributing to a cascade of forced liquidations after bitcoin slipped through widely watched thresholds.

The decline followed a sharp sell-off in global technology stocks overnight, where concerns over the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and rising capital spending by major firms weighed heavily on valuations.

Losses in U.S. tech shares spilled into Asian markets and extended into cryptocurrencies, which have increasingly traded in tandem with high-growth equities during periods of market stress.

The move was exacerbated by heavy unwinding of leveraged positions, particularly in derivatives markets, after bitcoin's drop below the $75,000 level triggered stop-loss orders.

Nearly $770 million in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, according to data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass.

Broader macroeconomic pressures also weighed on prices, with the U.S. dollar firming and global bond yields edging higher, reducing appetite for speculative assets.

Precious metals, typically seen as alternative safe havens, also suffered heavy losses, underscoring fragile liquidity conditions across asset classes.

Silver prices plunged nearly 17% in Asian trading, erasing recent gains and leading to large swings, while gold weakened amid the stress.

Sentiment around crypto has deteriorated after weeks of choppy trading and repeated failed attempts to reclaim higher ground.

Crypto price today: altcoins also tumble, XRP drops 10%

Most altcoins also fell on Thursday amid a broader sell-off.

World no.2 crypto Ethereum declined 7.4% to $2,098.92.

World no. 3 crypto XRP plunged 10% to $1.42.

Solana fell 6%, while Cardano eased 5% and Polygon lost 3.2%.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin dropped 6%, and $TRUMP fell 3.5%.

Source: Investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Forex

The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to unfold from the September 2022 peak as a five‑wave cycle, with the structure now approaching the conclusion of wave ((5)). Wave ((4)) of this impulse move ended at 100.395 on November 21, 2025, after which the Dollar resumed its decline. The Index currently displays only a clear three‑swing sequence down from the November 21 high, which strongly suggests that the downside remains incomplete. From wave ((4)), wave 1 terminated at 97.75, while wave 2 retraced higher to 99.53, as reflected in the one‑hour chart. The Index then resumed lower in wave 3.

Within wave 3, wave ((i)) ended at 98.24, followed by a rally in wave ((ii)) that peaked at 98.86. The decline continued with wave ((iii)) reaching 96.8, while wave ((iv)) recovered modestly to 97.28. Wave ((v)) then pushed lower to 95.55, completing wave 3 at a higher degree. The Index corrected in wave 4, which unfolded as a zigzag structure. From the wave 3 low, wave ((a)) advanced to 96.78, wave ((b)) pulled back to 96.01, and wave ((c)) rose to 97.73, completing wave 4. The Dollar has since resumed its decline in wave 5.

Near term, as long as the pivot at 99.53 remains intact, the expectation is for the Dollar to extend lower. The potential target lies within the 123.6% to 161.8% external retracement zone, which aligns at 94.2–95.5. This projection reinforces the view that the bearish cycle is still in progress and that further weakness is likely before the larger structure completes.

Dollar Index (DXY) 60 minute chart

DXY Elliott Wave video:

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Source: Elliott Wave Forecast

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King Ten

Economic

Remarks of Officials

Political

Indian officials are scrambling to manage the fallout from a surprise trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, as a lack of concrete details fuels anxiety among farmers and investors. While Trump hailed the agreement as a major win for the United. States, the Indian government is now working to reassure its domestic audience that it has not conceded too much.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has made public statements twice in two days, insisting that India’s sensitive agricultural sector, particularly dairy, was adequately protected during negotiations. Officials also clarified that a reported commitment to purchase $500 billion in U.S. goods over five years includes projects already planned.

The initial market reaction was positive, with Indian financial markets and the currency rallying on Tuesday. However, stocks leveled off by Wednesday as investors paused to await the fine print of the deal.

New Delhi Defends Pact Amid Farmer Backlash

The core of the controversy lies in agriculture. Farmers are a powerful political constituency in India, where millions of smallholders cultivate less than five acres of land. The deal has sparked fears that they will be unable to compete with an influx of American agricultural products.

During the lengthy trade talks, Washington consistently pushed New Delhi to open its heavily protected farm sector. Key U.S. demands included greater access for genetically modified crops, which dominate American corn and soybean production, and entry for its dairy products—an industry India carefully guards.

In a bid to calm rising tensions, Goyal told parliament on Wednesday that "the Indian side has been successful in safeguarding its sensitive sectors," specifically citing agriculture and dairy.

Opposition and Farmer Groups Vow Protests

Despite government assurances, farmer organizations and opposition parties have fiercely criticized the agreement. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an agricultural group, has promised nationwide protests, including a potential strike on February 12.

"We won't allow US farmers to enter India," declared Mohini Mishra, general secretary of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, another farmers' group with ties to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parent organization.

The opposition has seized on the issue, disrupting parliamentary proceedings and preventing Modi from speaking on Wednesday. Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the opposition Indian National Congress, claimed that "the hard work, sweat and blood of Indian farmers has been sold by Narendra Modi in this deal."

Unpacking the Terms of the Agreement

According to President Trump’s announcement, the deal involves significant tariff adjustments:

• India will reportedly reduce its tariffs on American goods to zero.

• The U.S. will lower its tariff on Indian shipments from 50% to 18%.

• A punitive 25% U.S. duty imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil will be lifted.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer celebrated the agreement as a "big win," stating that India would eliminate tariffs on a range of American products, from tree nuts and fruits to wine and spirits. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins added that the deal would inject "cash into rural America."

However, Modi’s government has not confirmed many of these details, and neither side has released official documentation. Indian officials, many of whom were reportedly surprised by Trump’s announcement, have stated that a joint statement with more information will be released in the coming days.

Widespread Confusion Clouds Economic Outlook

The information vacuum has left multiple sectors uncertain about the future.

"The US-India trade deal can be considered as a positive from macro and market standpoint. However, one should wait for the fine print for more clarity," noted analysts at Mirae Asset Mutual Fund.

This pattern is not new for the Trump administration. In July, the president announced a tariff reduction for Vietnam on social media, but the framework agreement was only released in October and still lacked crucial specifics.

Beyond agriculture, other Indian industries are seeking clarity:

• Oil Refiners: Indian oil refiners are unclear about the future of Russian crude purchases after Trump claimed India would stop buying from Moscow. The Kremlin stated it had not been informed of any such plans.

• Gems and Jewelry: Companies in labor-intensive sectors like gems and jewelry do not know which specific products will benefit from zero tariffs.

• Steel and Auto: It remains unclear if separate U.S. tariffs on steel and auto components, imposed under Section 232, will be phased out as part of this agreement.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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