TSX Futures Show Limited Movement as Declining Gold Counters Oil's Rise

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Canada's main stock index futures were flat on Tuesday due to gold declines and oil price rebounds. Investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and key domestic economic data.

Futures for Canada's primary stock index exhibited minimal movement on Tuesday, reflecting a subdued market sentiment as investors grappled with a mix of factors impacting asset prices. Despite the anticipation surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's impending interest rate decision and the release of significant domestic economic data later in the week, uncertainty prevailed, leading to cautious trading activity. At 6:36 a.m. ET, June futures on the S&P/TSX index remained flat, highlighting the subdued mood in early trading.

The commodity markets played a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment, with contrasting movements seen in gold and oil prices. Spot gold prices experienced a decline of nearly 1% due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, exerting downward pressure on gold-related assets. In contrast, oil prices stabilized on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes of a potential ceasefire in Israel-Hamas talks, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting oil supply dynamics. The fluctuations in commodity prices underscored the intricate interplay between global economic developments and asset valuations, influencing investor decision-making processes.

Across the border, all eyes were on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which was poised to announce its interest rate decision following a two-day meeting commencing later in the day. The outcome of this decision was expected to have significant implications for financial markets, as investors sought clarity on the central bank's monetary policy stance amid mounting inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, in Canada, market participants awaited the release of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. This economic indicator would provide valuable insights into the health of the Canadian economy and potentially influence expectations regarding future interest rate movements by the Bank of Canada.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index had closed 0.2% higher on Monday, marking a milestone by surpassing the 22,000 threshold for the first time since the previous Tuesday. The index's performance was supported by strength in commodity-linked shares, underscoring the significance of the commodity sector in driving broader market movements.

In corporate developments, Scotiabank made headlines by appointing banking veteran Travis Machen as the CEO and group head of its global banking and markets unit, effective May 6. This leadership change signaled the bank's strategic focus on strengthening its position in the global banking landscape, reflecting broader trends within the financial sector.

Furthermore, attention was drawn to the upcoming earnings reports from gold mining companies such as OceanaGold and New Gold, among others. These quarterly earnings releases were expected to provide valuable insights into the financial health and operational performance of these companies, potentially impacting investor sentiment towards the broader mining sector.

Against this backdrop, market participants remained vigilant, closely monitoring developments in commodity markets, central bank policies, and corporate earnings reports. The dynamic nature of the financial markets underscored the importance of adaptability and risk management, as investors navigated through a complex landscape characterized by uncertainty and volatility.

While futures for Canada's main stock index remained muted on Tuesday, the broader market sentiment was influenced by a multitude of factors, including fluctuations in commodity prices, central bank decisions, and corporate developments. As investors awaited key economic data releases and corporate earnings reports, the financial markets remained poised for further developments, highlighting the importance of agility and informed decision-making in navigating the ever-changing investment landscape.

Source: Reuters

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Data Interpretation

On April 30, local time, Eurostat released the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and April Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2024:

The initial estimate for the Eurozone's first-quarter GDP growth rate was 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and surpassing the previous value of 0.1%.

The initial estimate for the Eurozone's April CPI annual rate was 2.4%, meeting expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous value.

While the CPI monthly rate for April was 0.6%, also meeting expectations but down from 0.8% previously.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.4% in the Eurozone in the first quarter of 2024, after +0.1% in the Eurozone in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the first quarter of 2024, Ireland (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary (all +0.8%). Sweden (-0.1%) was the only Member State that recorded a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The year-on-year growth rates were positive for nine countries and negative for four.

Looking at the main components of Eurozone inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in April (3.7%, compared with 4.0% in March), but still a major driver of inflation this month. However, inflation in the services sector has remained at 4% since the beginning of the year, and this month marks the first decline in the services sector for the year. Additionally, it is expected that food, alcohol & tobacco will record 2.8%, compared with 2.6% in March; non-energy industrial goods will be at 0.9%, compared with 1.1% in March; and energy will be at -0.6%, compared with -1.8% in March.

Recently, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos stated, "If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, [the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission] were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, we will dial back the level of monetary policy restriction." While the Eurozone's April inflation rate remained stable as expected, a key indicator reflecting potential price pressures has slowed, providing solid grounds for the ECB to cut rates in June.

Furthermore, with overall inflation and potential inflation continuing to slow down, the Eurozone economy is growing faster than expected, prompting the ECB to consider easing monetary policy. If geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further and energy prices do not bring additional upward pressure on inflation, a rate cut in June seems to be a certain decision.

Eurozone Q1 GDP

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Economic

Stocks

Central Bank

Tesla stole the light with a 15% jump on Monday after Elon Musk’s surprise visit to China resulted in a partnership with Baidu’s maps and navigation futures that cleared the way for Tesla’s full-self driving cars in China. In just a week, Tesla went from the least Magnificent of the Magnificent 7 companies to one that gives hope, again. The stock is up by 40% since last Monday’s dip, and the moves are based on new plans and projects that look to be exciting investors again.

Cherry on top: the Chinese company BYD, which had recently claimed the title of the world’s largest car seller, also missed profit estimates in Q1 as aggressive price cuts weighed on revenue growth. Aggressive EV price war could soon slow and push companies to seek new ways to differentiate themselves, and that’s what Elon Musk is busy doing right now.

Fed starts 2-day meeting

The S&P500 advanced 0.32% while Nasdaq 100 gained 0.36% as the US 2-year yield remained a touch below the 5% level. The Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day policy meeting today and deliver its latest policy verdict tomorrow. We are preparing to hear Jerome Powell ask for more patience and for more time to abate inflation. If that’s the case, we could see a further meltdown in Fed rate cut expectations. The next stop is no rate cut in 2024, which would be a cold shower for the bulls.

Earnings season goes well

Happily, the earnings season is going well. The latest stats suggest that over 80% of the S&P500 companies that have reported earnings so far beat expectations. Magnificent 7 companies have mostly lived up to high expectations as well. A part from Tesla, all the Big Tech companies announced better-than-expected results – although not all of them saw their stock prices react positively to the earnings.

All in all, the Q1 earnings are set to print a 4.7% EPS growth versus 3.8% estimated at the start of the earnings season, and the second quarter earnings are projected to grow 9.7% – up from 9.5% projected earlier. And more importantly, the expectations don’t only improve for the Big Tech, but across many sectors hinting that the Big Tech rally could eventually broaden to the rest of the S&P500 sectors and keep the rally going. One major risk to that positive outlook is the Fed. If the Fed expectations turn undesirably hawkish, we could see the equity rally stall. That’s why the better-than-expected earnings see muted or unexpected market reaction.

Speaking of earnings, NXP jumped 6% in the afterhours trading after announcing better-than-expected Q1 earnings and strong Q2 guidance. Amazon is due to report its results today. AWS is certainly continued to fuel profits, but strong results may not satisfy tech investors if not accompanied by stock buybacks & dividends to prop up short-term appetite in the present high-yield environment.

Intervention talk

Monday’s session was spiced up with a rapid surge in the USDJPY – that hit the 160 before rebounding as strongly back – fueling speculation that the Japanese officials certainly intervened to stop the bleeding. The officials didn’t confirm an intervention because it doesn’t matter as long as intervention or the fear of it pushes the yen shorts out of the market. What matters is how the BoJ will prevent the yen shorts from staying away from the market, given that their relatively accommodative policy stance justifies further depreciation of the yen. The USD/JPY pair is now trading near the 156-157 area.

The euro bulls are struggling near the 1.07 level against the US dollar as Spanish and German inflation figures came in – mostly – softer than expected but with the fear of seeing the slowdown fade as governments remove support that had slowed rises in energy prices over the past year. Due today, core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to print a further retreat from 2.9% to 2.6% in April along with a slight improvement in GDP growth. If we don’t see a major surprise in data, the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will opt for the first rate cut in June will remain intact, yet what will happen after the June meeting remains uncertain and will depend on whether inflation in Europe shows signs of heating up, and if yes, how badly.

This week, though , the Fed sentiment will likely outweigh the ECB expectations, and given the recent developments on the US inflation front, a dollar appreciation wouldn’t be a surprise.

Elsewhere, the Chinese manufacturing PMI hit a 14-month high while services PMI dropped to a 3-month low. US crude fell below $83pb on hope of ceasefire in Gaza, and cocoa futures tanked 15% on higher margin calls and forced liquidations in the continuation of a selloff that started last Thursday on news that Nigeria, which is the world’s fifth biggest cocoa producer, said that its exports rose nearly 20% in March.

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Economic

Russian oil production has remained strong despite sanctions imposed by Western countries in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country’s gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industries, on the other hand, have suffered due to limited pipeline infrastructure and reliance on Western companies. Rystad Energy expects Russian piped gas to China to increase due to new infrastructure, but the outlook for Russian LNG is less rosy. The Kremlin has set an ambitious plan to commission 100 million tonnes of LNG capacity by 2030 but our forecasts show the country will miss that target by as much as 60 million tonnes.

Despite a rough outlook, we expect Russia’s planned LNG projects will go ahead despite sanctions and challenges in securing vessels and long-term contracts, thanks to government support and incentives around financing and research and development, along with tax breaks. However, due to the challenging environment, Russian LNG production is highly unlikely to reach government targets, with our forecasts predicting only 36.3 million tonnes of output by 2026.

The Russian Ministry of Energy in 2021 released a forecast where the country's LNG production was expected to climb to as much as 140 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2035 under a high-case scenario, or 80 million tpa under a more conservative outlook. Last year, the ministry disclosed its plan to boost LNG exports by 33% between 2022 and 2026, to 44 million tonnes per annum. In its conservative-case scenario, this increase is expected to reach only 18%, with a target of 39 million tonnes per annum.

Although European countries have almost entirely cut off Russian piped gas, Europe still depends on Russia for much of its LNG supply. LNG exports to Europe rose by about 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and replacing these volumes in the short term is a major challenge for the continent.

“Russian oil exports may have escaped the worst of the impact from Western sanctions. Piped gas exports have suffered greatly, but the LNG industry has been hit the hardest. The Russian government is still optimistic about the country’s output, but without a significant change in fortunes, reaching the targets may be nothing more than a pipe dream,” says Swapnil Babele, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

Russia's LNG Expansion Plans Hit The Wall_1

In the short term, we expect only LNG projects from independent Russian gas producer Novatek to proceed, with delays of at least five years due to vessel procurement challenges and current market conditions. The company's primary goal is to construct a low-cost LNG platform, which involves developing proprietary LNG technologies and expanding output by deploying these new technologies. The main challenge for Novatek will be developing the logistics and looking for new buyers.

Our current forecasts show Russia commissioning about 68 million tonnes of liquefaction capacity by 2035, with actual LNG production being around 40 million tpa. Novatek will account for almost 80% of that total through its Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG-2, and Murmansk LNG projects.

Europe became the top destination for Russian LNG exports in 2022, surpassing Asia. Russia’s LNG exports rose 10% in 2022 to about 33 million tonnes, 17 million tonnes of which was sent to European markets – a 22% increase from the previous year. Last year, Russian LNG production dropped to about 31 million tonnes due to planned maintenance at the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal LNG projects in the second half of the year. In 2024, Rystad Energy expects Russian LNG production to total about 34 million tonnes, thanks in part to the commissioning of Arctic LNG-2 Train 1.

Russia's LNG Expansion Plans Hit The Wall_2

Since 2014, when the first Russian LNG sanctions were imposed, the country prioritized developing its own liquefaction technologies and is trying to meet its demand for LNG equipment with local providers. Of these providers, Atomenergomash, the mechanical engineering division of Rosatom, designs and manufactures cryogenic LNG pumps, heat exchangers and turbo-expanders. Kazancompressormash constructs compressor units for LNG facilities, and Cryo-LNG supplies tank containers for LNG transportation and storage.

In 2018, Novatek obtained a patent for its “Arctic cascade” technology, which was implemented on the fourth train of Yamal LNG. However, the technology was not fully developed, and the project encountered several issues that led to modifications in the patent. In June 2023, the company secured another patent for the “Arctic mix” technique, which was designed for natural gas liquefaction on a large scale using mixed refrigerants. This technology is expected to be the primary method for future projects involving gravity base structures (GBS), with a capacity of more than 6 million tpa per train.

Source：oilprice

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Samantha Luan

Economic

The FTSE 100 once again finds itself at the top of the pile in early trade, with the index managing to push higher despite declines for mainland European indices. A deluge of Eurozone data saw better-than-expected growth figures from France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, helping to boost the outlook for the year ahead. However, all eyes were on the eurozone inflation report as a key determinant of expectations from the ECB. With inflation coming in at 0.6% for the month, there are clear concerns when set against the similarly lofty 0.8% figure for March. The annual figure may rest close to target at 2.4%, but it looks likely that this final hurdle will be a difficult one to overcome in the coming months. Instead, the ECB are faced with the predicament of whether to hold off or proactively cut rates ahead of any return to 2% inflation. With inflation likely to remain above target and growth picking up, we are arguably seeing the case for a swift rate cut from the ECB fade.

The UK looks set for a period of increased price uncertainty, as Brexit border checks raise concerns over a potential resurgence in food inflation. The EU remains the UK’s largest trading partner, but that relationship could shift as European producers deem in economically unviable to supply the UK market given the implementation of new red tape at the border. For markets this heightens the prospect of a fresh surge in food inflation, coming just as the Bank of England prepare to implement their first rate cut in the coming months. Fortunately, overnight data from the BRC highlighted easing price pressures elsewhere, with non-food goods prices falling by 0.6% over the year to April, bringing the first annual decline in this metric since October 2021.

Earnings season looks to kick back in as a major determinant of market sentiment today, with Amazon reporting after the close. While we have commonly known Amazon as a consumer cyclical stock that should benefit from higher consumer spending, recent trends have instead shifted the focus towards their cloud and AI revenues given the prospective revenue growth they bring. However, advertising also represents a key area of growth, which traders should be keenly following. Coming hot off the heels of strong digital advertising demand from Snap, Microsoft, and Alphabet there is a hope that Amazon can continue to build on their impressive 26% year-on-year ad growth seen last time around.

Source：FXStreet

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin attempted to hold higher on April 30 as an institutional landmark in Hong Kong boosted momentum. Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _1

Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Hong Kong ETFs deliver BTC price relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed local highs of $64,714 on Bitstamp after the daily close.

This coincided with the launch of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong — an important moment for the industry in Asia, where conditions have rarely fostered Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.

“Although the structural flows are dwarfed by the US ETFs (naturally as the world's largest economy) this shows a dramatic shift in stance from the East, than what it had been only just a few years back,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of recent commentary on X.

Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, noted positive differences between the Hong Kong setup and the first months of the United States’ spot ETFs, which began trading in mid-January.

BTC price action thus received some healthy relief after beginning the week at lows of under $62,000.

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades revealed a breakout from a falling wedge that was now in the process of being retested as potential support. Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _2

Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _2

BTC/USD chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Continuing, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, queried whether the ETFs alone could affect longer-term changes in price behavior. He noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates would take place on May 1, an event typically preceded by sell-side pressure on crypto.

“Will Hong Kong bulls stampede through resistance at $65.5k or will they take a more tempered approach and wait for the Monthly Close and Wednesday’s remarks from #FED Chair Powell to set the tone for May?” he summarized to X followers.

An accompanying chart showed major areas of liquidity on the Binance BTC/USDT order book. Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _3

Bitcoin Price Battles for $63K Support Amid Warning Bulls Are 'Complacent' _3

BTC/USDT order book liquidity on Binance. Source: Keith Alan

Funding rates support Bitcoin leveraged longs

Across derivatives platforms, meanwhile, funding rates remain skewed slightly negative.

While the lack of excess was encouraging, for trading suite DecenTrader, the implications could point to overall fickle market conditions. Traders, it suggested on the day, could still bet just as easily on higher or lower next.

“Bitcoin’s weighted average funding rate continues to dip negative as price chops around,” it wrote alongside its own chart.

“The market appears to be unsure of the next breakout direction.

”Bitcoin weighted average funding rate. Source: DecenTrader

In the latest edition of its “London & New York Color” market updates sent to Telegram channel subscribers on April 29, trading firm QCP Capital likewise acknowledged funding being in limbo.

“Although short-term realised volatility is indeed depressed given the tight spot range, the market is possibly overly complacent given prevailing macro developments (Middle East conflict, potential US stagflation, Yen weakness, US fiscal injection, etc),” it warned.

“Perp funding is largely flat with many Altcoins showing negative funding which opens up a path for speculators to build leveraged long positions.”

Source: Cointelegraph

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Cohen

Economic

Bond

Forex

Markets

Core bonds gained ahead of a busy week. US yields dropped between 1.9 and 5.3 bps with the long end outperforming. The US Treasury unexpectedly lifted its quarterly borrowing estimate by $41bn compared to its January estimate (cf. infra). While only temporary, the small yield spike it triggered at the long end of the curve does reveal some market sensitivity to the matter. German rate declines were about the same, ranging from 2.6 (2y) to 4.5 bps (30y).

Inflation readings from the likes of Spain, Belgium and Germany do not call into question the ECB’s intention to cut rates in June. But the fact that inflation reaccelerated is testament to the bumpy road ahead that limits the central bank’s operating room in the months thereafter. ECB’s Wunsch was the latest to warn against back-to-back rate cuts with his Dutch colleague later referring to the US inflation experience showing the need to be vigilant. Currency investors were of course eyeballing JPY graphs all day.

The yen gained more than a percent against the euro and the dollar on what is presumed to have been an intervention but did close well below the highest levels of the day. USD/JPY finished at 156.35 compared to an intraday low of 154.54. EUR/USD appreciated from 1.0693 to 1.0721. Sterling did very well but that had probably more to do with USD and EUR spillover moves in the JPY combination rather than genuine GBP strength. Either way, EUR/GBP slid towards 0.853.

Yesterday’s national inflation readings culminate in the European figure today. Risks are slightly skewed to the upside but the deviation from consensus, if any, should be small. Q1 GDP EMU growth is also being readied for release. French just printed a bigger-than-expected 0.2% q/q outcome, adding to the belief that the European economy as a whole is recovering from a winter recession (Q4 figure was revised downwards to -0.1% q/q).

But neither CPI nor GDP is probably going to leave a big stamp on (European) markets ahead of a public holiday tomorrow and the FOMC meeting though. The policy statement and chair Powell are expected to sound a lot less confident about inflation’s return towards 2% after the recent string of data. That would contrast sharply with the previous time around but is more or less priced in by US (money) markets.

The latter assume one rate hike this year with split opinions on a second one. It means the bar for yields at the front end to rise further (eg. 2y beyond 5%) is high and probably requires Powell to bring back rate hikes on the table. That’s not our base scenario for the time being. The long end continues to be the most vulnerable part. The US dollar holds the upper hand this morning but trades with technically insignificant gains.

News & Views

The US Treasury yesterday its quarterly borrowing estimates for Q2 and Q3. During the April-June quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $243bn, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750bn. That’s $41bn more than announced in January, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance ($775bn instead of $760bn). During the July-September quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $847bn assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850bn. Additional financing details relating to the Treasury’s quarterly refunding will be released on Wednesday.

UK shop price inflation slowed further in April, from 1.3% Y/Y to 0.8% Y/Y, the slowest pace since December 2021. The British Retail Consortium reported that non-food inflation entered deflation (-0.6% Y/Y from +0.2%) while food inflation slowed to 3.4% Y/Y (from 3.7%). Non-food prices fell especially in clothing and footwear where retailers ramped up promotions to encourage consumer spend. CEO of the BRC, Helen Dickinson, said that “while consumers will welcome the lower shop price inflation, geopolitical tensions and the knock-on impact on commodity prices, like oil, pose a threat to future price stability. Retailers will continue to do all they can to keep prices down, but government has a role to play with pro-growth policies that allow businesses to invest in the customer offer.”

Graphs

GE 10y yield

ECB President Lagarde clearly hinted at a summer (June) rate cut and has broad backing. EMU disinflation will continue in April and bring headline CPI (temporarily) at/below the 2% target. Together with weak growth momentum, this gives backing to deliver a first 25 bps rate cut. A more bumpy inflation path in H2 2024 and the Fed’s higher for longer strategy make follow-up moves difficult. Markets come to terms with that, pushing yields up.

Core Bonds Gained Ahead of a Busy Week_1

US 10y yield

The March dot plot contained several hawkish elements including a symbolically higher neutral rate. In our view they set the stage for a later (September at the earliest, likely December) start of a possibly shallower cutting cycle. Upcoming CPI readings (through base effects) and resilient eco data should confirm this. US yields continue their uptrend across the maturity spectrum, setting fresh YTD highs.

Core Bonds Gained Ahead of a Busy Week_2

EUR/USD

Economic divergence (US > EMU) and a likely desynchronized rate cut cycle with the ECB exceptionally taking the lead pulled EUR/USD towards the previous YTD low at 1.0695. Stronger-than-expected US March inflation figures forced a technical break. Last year’s low at 1.0494 looks vulnerable.

Core Bonds Gained Ahead of a Busy Week_3

EUR/GBP

Debate at the Bank of England is focused at the timing of rate cuts. Most BoE members align with the ECB rather than with Fed view, suggesting that the disinflation process provides a window of opportunity to make policy less restrictive (in the near term). Sterling’s downside turned more vulnerable with the topside of the sideways EUR/GBP 0.8493 – 0.8768 trading range serving as the first real technical reference.

Source: KBC Bank

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