Trump Says US Will Export Nvidia H200 Chips To China

Indian government bonds may continue to struggle on Tuesday, after witnessing a sharp plunge in the previous session after the central bank did not include the liquid benchmark paper in this week's bond purchase.

The benchmark 10-year yield (IN063335G=CC) is likely to drift in a 6.55% to 6.60% band, a private-bank trader said. It ended at 6.5697% on Monday. Bond yields rise when prices fall.

"The tide has completely shifted in favour of bears, and we could see some more selloff today, as there is no big reason for buying," the trader said.

The Reserve Bank of India will conduct bond purchase worth 500 billion rupees ($5.55 billion) on Thursday and this includes papers maturing from four to 25 years, but not the most-traded and liquid 10-year bond. This soured market sentiment and spurred a broad selloff on Monday.

Last week, the RBI cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points and left the door open for further easing, while announcing steps to boost banking-sector liquidity.

BMI, a Fitch Ratings unit, believes the current repo rate value is close to its terminal level and forecasts no further changes till the end of the next financial year.

Focus stays on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision due late on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver a rate cut, but the market fears a hawkish guidance and a slower pace of cuts in 2026.

RATES

India's overnight index swap rates jumped on Monday largely driven by paying from offshore investors that expect a hawkish guidance from the Fed this week.

Source: TradingView

United States Department of Justice logo and U.S. flag are seen in this illustration taken April 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The U.S. Department of Justice said on Monday it had sued a Virginia county's school board for allowing a biologically female student access to the boy's locker room and then punishing the boys for complaining.

It was the latest action by the department over the gender policies of some schools across the country.

The department said in a release that it had sued the Loudoun County School Board "for its denial of equal protection based on religion."

The lawsuit alleges that the school board's gender policy permitting transgender children to use whichever locker room corresponds with their gender identity "requires students and faculty to accept and promote gender ideology" with which they may not agree.

Loudoun County Public Schools, located on the northwestern outskirts of Washington, DC, said in an email that it could not comment on any matter involving pending litigation.

"Students do not shed their First Amendment rights at the schoolhouse gate," Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said. "Loudoun County's decision to advance and promote gender ideology tramples on the rights of religious students who cannot embrace ideas that deny biological reality."

The Trump administration has taken legal action against several schools and universities across the U.S. over their gender policies.

In a series of executive orders, Trump has banned transgender people from serving in the military, barred transgender girls and women from competing in female sports and ordered an end to federal funding for school programs that include "gender ideology."

The lawsuit against the Loudoun County School Board comes after the board voted in August to maintain its gender policy allowing transgender children to use whichever bathroom they choose, despite an order from the Department of Education in July that it change the policy or face punishment.

At that time, the board said in a statement that the order from the federal government to change its policy would force it to not comply with federal court precedent that transgender students be allowed to use the bathroom of the gender they identify with.

In September, the Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights found that Loudoun County schools were discriminating against male students on the basis of sex.

The office said that the school had failed to investigate complaints of sexual harassment made by two male students "concerning the presence of a member of the opposite sex in male-only intimate spaces yet thoroughly investigated the female student's sexual harassment complaint about the boys."

The gender policy of Loudoun County Public Schools came in the cross-hairs of the Trump administration after Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, in May asked the state Attorney General Jason Miyares, also a Republican, to investigate claims that the school board had punished students and parents who had spoken out against its gender policy.

Miyares said in a June statement that his office had found that Loudoun County Public Schools had engaged in retaliation against students "for expressing their discomfort for being forced to share a locker room with a member of the opposite sex."

Source: Reuters

President Donald Trump announced that inflation will continue to decrease in the U.S., asserting no risk of deflation, as seen in recent official economic metrics.

This statement underscores Trump's economic policy success claims amidst continued above-target inflation, affecting U.S. economic sentiment but showing no immediate direct impact on cryptocurrency markets.

Trump's Inflation Claim and Economic Narratives

President Donald Trump reinforced that inflation is declining but dismissed the occurrence of deflation. The White House attributes this trend to policy measures such as deregulatory strategies and energy advancements under Trump's leadership.

Market implications include perceptions of a disinflationary environment while inflation remains above the 2% target. This scenario positions macro assets like BTC as potential hedges in expectation of easing monetary policies.

"Grocery prices are down, mortgage rates are down, and inflation has been defeated." — Donald J. Trump

Source: CryptoSlate

Japanese authorities lifted tsunami warnings on Tuesday hours after a powerful 7.5-magnitude earthquake shook northeastern regions, injuring at least 30 people and forcing about 90,000 residents to evacuate their homes.

The earthquake struck off the coast at 11:15 p.m. (1415 GMT) on Monday, and the Japan Meteorological Agency said a tsunami as high as 3 metres (10 feet) could hit the country's northeastern coast. Warnings were issued for the prefectures of Hokkaido, Aomori and Iwate, and tsunamis from 20 to 70 cm (7 to 27 inches) high were observed at several ports, JMA said.

By the early hours of Tuesday, the JMA downgraded the warnings to advisories, and later lifted all advisories. There were no reports of major damage.

The epicentre of the quake was 80 km (50 miles) off the coast of Aomori prefecture, at a depth of 54 km.

On Japan's 1-7 scale of seismic intensity, the tremor registered as an "upper 6" in Hachinohe city, Aomori prefecture - a quake strong enough to make it impossible to keep standing or move without crawling.

"As of now, I have received reports of 30 people being injured and one fire," Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters.

East Japan Railway (9020.T), opens new tab suspended some services in the area, which was also hit by a massive 9.0-magnitude quake in March 2011. Other train services are facing delays in northern Japan, the operator said.

Following the tremor, the JMA issued an advisory for a wide region from the northernmost island of Hokkaido down to Chiba prefecture, east of Tokyo, calling on residents to be on alert for the possibility of a powerful earthquake hitting again within a week.

"There is a possibility that further powerful and stronger earthquakes could occur over the next several days," a JMA official said at a briefing.

No irregularities were reported at nuclear power plants in the region run by Tohoku Electric Power (9506.T), opens new tab and Hokkaido Electric Power (9509.T), opens new tab, the utilities said. Thousands of households had lost power immediately following the quake, but service resumed by Tuesday morning.

YEN WEAKENS BRIEFLY

The yen weakened against major currencies after news of the tremor, with the dollar and euro both touching session highs.

Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, with a tremor occurring at least every five minutes. Located in the "Ring of Fire" of volcanoes and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin, Japan accounts for about 20% of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater.

The northeastern region suffered one of the country's deadliest earthquakes on March 11, 2011, when a 9.0-magnitude tremor struck under the ocean off the coast of the northern city of Sendai. It was the most powerful ever recorded in Japan and set off a series of massive tsunami that devastated a wide swathe of the Pacific coastline and killed nearly 20,000 people.

Drawing on lessons from that disaster, when a magnitude 7-level earthquake had struck two days beforehand, the government now issues a one-week "megaquake" advisory whenever a significant earthquake occurs in the region.

The 2011 tsunami also damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, leading to a series of explosions and meltdowns in the world's worst nuclear disaster for 25 years.

Source: Reuters

A measure of Australian business conditions pulled back in November as sales and profits both eased after a couple of strong months, a survey showed on Tuesday, while many firms still reported limited spare capacity.

The survey from National Australia Bank showed its index of business conditions fell 3 points to +7 in November, coming off its highest level since March 2024. The survey's volatile measure of business confidence slid 5 points to +1.

The result could point to some cooling in consumer demand after a very strong October, though the lack of spare capacity fits with recent high readings on inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its last meeting of the year on Tuesday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.60%, and likely signal caution on further easing.

"Overall, the survey continues to tell us that businesses are capacity constrained and that if economic growth accelerates further from the current starting point, we may quickly see additional pressure on prices," said NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld.

The survey's measure of business sales dropped 6 points to +12 in November, while profitability fell 5 points to +4. Its measure of employment edged up 1 point to +4.

Capacity utilisation ticked up to 83.6%, the highest reading in 18 months. Price indicators in the survey were mostly higher, with growth in purchase costs running at a quarterly rate of 1.3% and retail prices at 0.8%.

Source: Investing

Key Points:

XRP-spot ETF hype, a broadening investor base, and increasing XRP utility boosted buyer demand for XRP. US XRP-spot ETF inflows edged closer to $1 billion on Friday, December 5, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP's favor.

Meanwhile, increasing real-world XRP utility has likely fueled institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs. XRP-spot ETF inflows have outperformed inflows into the US BTC-spot ETF market despite fewer ETFs.

Last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore expanded Ripple's Asian footprint, granting an expanded scope of payment activities for its Major Payment Institution (MPI) license. According to Ripple, the approval enables the delivery of end-to-end, fully licensed payment services to its customers in the region.

Resilient institutional appetite and greater utility are two key ingredients for a bullish price trajectory for XRP.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Ripple CEO Highlights XRP-Spot ETF Success

The US XRP-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $897.35 million since launch to Friday, December 5. Just four spot ETFs have drawn almost $1 billion in less than a month, underscoring robust institutional demand. $1 billion in inflows for the first month would align with JPMorgan's pre-launch forecast of $8 billion in net inflows for year one.

Sustained inflows are likely to benefit XRP, setting up a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Last week, the Vanguard Group unlocked the door to crypto assets, allowing brokerage clients to invest in crypto-spot ETFs. Vanguard's repositioning on digital assets came off the back of the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, widening the investor base.

The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case and Ripple's continued expansion on Main Street may accelerate the XRP-BTC decoupling, evidenced in spot ETF flows. US BTC-spot ETFs reported net outflows of $87.7 million in the reporting week ending December 5, while US XRP-spot ETFs saw net inflows of $230.73 million.

Flows for Monday, December 8, are expected later today.

SoSoValue – XRP-Spot ETF Flows – 091225

21Shares XRP-Spot ETF Launch Countdown Begins

On Monday, December 8, 21Shares filed an amended S-1 for its XRP-spot ETF, ticker TOXR, amid strong inflows. An imminent launch could further tilt the supply-demand balance in XRP's favor, supporting the bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinged on the Fed and Spot ETF Flows

Market bets on a 25-basis point Fed rate cut on Wednesday, December 10, bolstered investor appetite for XRP and the broader market. However, uncertainty lingers over the Fed's rate path through 2026. A more dovish Fed rate path, with multiple rate cuts in 2026, would likely lift sentiment.

Given the uncertainty, the FOMC Economic Projections, out after the interest rate decision, will likely influence XRP's short-term price outlook. Softer US inflation in September may give the doves a stronger footing in Wednesday's decision.

Beyond the Fed, several scenarios may boost buyer appetite for XRP, including:

In my view, these potential tailwinds support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise toward $2.5.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several events could derail the bullish outlook. These include:

These events would likely push XRP below $2, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs, progress toward crypto-friendly regulations, a broadening investor base, and a dovish Fed will likely support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP rose 1.35% on Monday, December 8, following the previous day's 0.68% gain, closing at $2.0733. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced 0.67%.

Despite Monday's gain, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are shifting from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

Avoiding a drop below the $2.0 psychological support level would support a move toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained breakout above the 50-day EMA would open the door to testing the $2.35 resistance level. Significantly, a break above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 091225 – EMAs

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Holding above the lower trendline and $2.0 would pave the way to the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would align with the $2.5 medium-term and $3 longer-term (8-12 weeks) price targets.

However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

XRPUSD – Daily Chart – 091225 – Bullish Structure

Outlook: Breaking $2.2 Resistance Key to Short-Term Outlook

XRP-spot ETF flows will face scrutiny on Tuesday, December 9, with Vanguard's crypto U-turn and increased XRP utility expected to boost institutional demand. However, speculation about Wednesday's FOMC Economic Projections and updates from Capitol Hill on the Market Structure Bill's progress may increase volatility.

To summarize, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed rate cut support a short-term move to $2.35. Progress toward crypto-friendly legislation and wider XRP adoption would align with the medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) $2.5 and $3.0 price targets.

Source: FX Empire