Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan Triggers Negative Consequences: China Begins to "Rehearse" Military and Economic "Siege" on Taiwan

When US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi insisted on visiting Taiwan, the Standing Committee of National People Congress China, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defence and Taiwan Work Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee were the first to voice their positions. Overall, the statement was serious, restrained, and principled, but it was the actions of the military that provided the substantive response.

From the evening of Pelosi's arrival in Taipei, the Eastern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) will conduct a series of joint military operations around Taiwan Island, conducting joint air and sea exercises in the northern, southwestern, and southeastern sea and air domains of the island, conducting long-range live firing in the Taiwan Strait and organizing test firings of normal conductive fire in the eastern sea of the island. And then, the Xinhua News Agency further published an area graph: significant military drill operations will be conducted, and live firing will be organized from 12:00 to 12:00 on 4 August to 7. In terms of the scope of the military exercise, Taiwan is surrounded by six directions in an 'all-inclusive' live-fire exercise.

In comparing the difference between the PLA's 1996 exercise area and the 2022 exercise area, the former is 12 nautical miles away, and the latter (southwest corner) is less than 9 nautical miles. Moreover, it also means that there is no longer a so-called center line in the Taiwan Strait and that the Taiwan Air Defence Identification Zone has been 'abolished.' It is believed that such drills will become a regular feature in the future.

This is the first time that the PLA has designated the waters and airspace around Taiwan as a military exclusion zone in the name of 'joint military operations.' This objectively creates a risk to aircraft and ships entering and leaving Taiwan during the military exercise, bringing Taiwan's main routes under control. This, in turn, creates a controllable encirclement of Taiwan. The "encirclement without fighting" is a good option for a frightened enemy is a defeated enemy.

Moreover, in fact, the night before Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan, the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) had already announced a ban on the import of more than 100 food companies from Taiwan. According to the official website of the GACC, among the 107 Taiwanese manufacturers that have received registration numbers in the mainland under the product category of "biscuits, pastries, and bread," 35 of them, or 32%, have a status of "suspended imports," including many well-known companies. According to news quoted by the Taiwanese media, more than 3,000 products could be involved in the ban. Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs has confirmed the news and is expected to work with Taiwan's Council of Agriculture to assess the potential economic damage and study countermeasures.

On 3 August, mainland China announced that with immediate effect, a moratorium on the import of citrus fruits such as grapefruit, lemons, oranges and chilled white scallops, and frozen mackerel from Taiwan to the mainland would be imposed. At the same time, it has decided to suspend the export of natural sand to Taiwan.

According to statistics from Taiwan's Ministry of Finance, Taiwan's food exports to the mainland in 2021 are estimated at US$1.682 billion. Among them, prepared foods account for the largest proportion, with exports amounting to US$646.21 million; animal products and live animals rank second at US$435.06 million; beverages, alcohol, and vinegar amount to US$337.33 million, while plant products amount to US$231.76 million.

This arrangement is tantamount to an early "practice" of a military blockade and siege of Taiwan, the frequent implementation of which will cripple Taiwan's economy and thus defeat the forces of Taiwan's independence. If such a "blockade" becomes the norm, Taiwan's business environment will deteriorate drastically, and a large amount of capital and industries will exit successively. As a result, the economy will be sluggish, and people's livelihoods will not be protected, which would be the most powerful way to deal with Taiwan's independence.

It has to be recalled that in 2012, China handled the Diaoyu Islands issue effectively by the same method of "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting" and achieved regular cruises over the sea areas of the Diaoyu Islands.

The year 2012 marks the 40th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. However, in September that year, Noda's cabinet approved the so-called "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands. According to the Japanese media, the Noda government would implement eight measures to strengthen its control over the Diaoyu Islands after the completion of the "purchase" process, which in essence was a further illegal seizure of the islands. A few hours later, the Chinese government reacted quickly by announcing for the first time the baseline of the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands and its subsidiary islands, declaring China's sovereignty over the islands to the world. This declaration, made in accordance with the 1992 Law of the People's Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone, established the legal basis for China's future exercise of sovereignty.

On 11 September, the Noda cabinet continued to go it alone and signed the 'island purchase' contract. As a combination of defense and counter-attack, China then took a series of measures to declare and reflect China's sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands: it sent more than 20 maritime surveillance and fishing vessels directly to the waters near the islands; it even sent an unprecedented two frigates to demonstrate. On the 15th and 16th, China not only announced the coordinates of the Diaoyu Islands and some of its subordinate islands but also decided to make a submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, for the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles in parts of the East China Sea.

Since September 2012, Chinese surveillance ships, fishing vessels, and other law enforcement vessels have begun frequent cruises into the territorial waters belonging to the Diaoyu Islands and have implemented repellent measures against Japanese patrol vessels. Such regular cruises have been continued. According to Chinese official announcements, the China Marine Surveillance Elite Vessel spent two-thirds of its time away from land on missions in 2012, covering nearly 30,000 nautical miles a year. On 22 July 2013, the China Maritime Police Bureau was officially listed as part of the State Oceanic Administration. In 2015, China promulgated a white paper on national defense, which for the first time explicitly proposed a 'combination of near-sea defense and far-sea defense.' On 4 July 2018, the formation of Chinese Marine Police ships 2305 cruised in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands. This was the first time that a Chinese Marine Police formation patrolled the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands after the Marine Police team was subordinated to the Armed Police. In July 2020, the Japanese side claimed to have spotted Chinese official vessels around the Diaoyu Islands for 100 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest continuous patrol days since Japan 'nationalized' the Diaoyu Islands in September 2012.

In addition, since the Noda government 'nationalized' the Diaoyu Islands, protests have erupted in hundreds of Chinese cities, sales of Japanese products have plummeted, and human exchange activities such as tourism to Japan have suffered a significant setback. Of course, the Japanese side could also launch an action to boycott Chinese products, but no one in Japan is advocating this. If Japanese people did not purchase Chinese products, from daily necessities to clothing and food in the eatery, they would not be able to access cheap products, and many Japanese would be in trouble due to high prices. Japan is economically powerless against China. The Japanese government had not taken these issues into consideration when it nationalized the Diaoyu Islands. This has dealt an economic hit to Japan. In response to this underestimation, Japanese public opinion, which had been tough beforehand, gradually turned to criticize the Noda government for acting recklessly. Noda also admitted to underestimating the strength of the Chinese reaction and stated that he would take all measures to remedy the bilateral relationship.

This is how Beijing handled the "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands 10 years ago. It worked for Japan, not to mention Taiwan. Although China's 'Taiwan issue' is essentially a game between China and the US, the core of the issue is still Taiwan's sovereignty and right to rule. Just as the Japanese Noda government's attempt to 'nationalize' the Diaoyu Islands promoted regular cruises years ago, this Pelosi's visit to Taiwan will not only promote the normalization of cruises to Taiwan but the frequent 'rehearse' of the military blockade and siege of Taiwan. This is an acceleration of the pace of armed reunification.