Myanmar's Wa State Army Keeps Global Tin Market Guessing

Tensions in Northern Myanmar

Commodity

Summary:

The tin market's fortunes remain beholden to Myanmar's United Wa State Army, which controls one of the world's largest mines.

The Wa State, the largest of the country's ethnic groups, ordered the suspension of all mining and processing operations in the autonomous region at the start of August for an extensive audit.

That ban has been lifted with effect from Jan. 4 for most mining. The major exception is the Man Maw mine, which accounts for almost all tin production in a region that is the world's third largest producer and the dominant supplier to China's smelters.

The impact of the suspension has so far been muted. It was well flagged, allowing Chinese players to stock up on ore and metal, and the loss of supply coincided with a downturn in global demand.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin price remains locked in a $23,000-25,000 per metric ton range, last trading at $24,220.

However, with demand from the all-important soldering sector showing signs of picking up, the market needs Man Maw back up and running sooner rather than later.

Slow Progress

The Wa State leadership has allowed Man Maw operators to process surface stocks of tin ore since September, according to the International Tin Association (ITA), which has been monitoring developments in this opaque part of the global supply chain.

The Wa State Mineral Industry Administration held a meeting with Man Maw operators on Dec. 4, resulting in the submission of a mine management proposal to the Wa State Central Committee (EPC) for further review.

New rules reaffirm that all mining rights belong to the EPC and require investors to apply for a three-year exploration permit before applying for a full mining licence.

The EPC's decision on Man Maw is pending, according to the ITA. The Association noted "optimistic forecasts" that full mining will be allowed to resume after the Chinese New Year, but said it may take time to re-mobilise the workforce after six months of suspension.

In the interim, surface stocks "are now reported to be mostly exhausted," the ITA said.

China Turns to Metal Imports

China's imports of tin ore from Myanmar have appreciably slowed after the August suspension.

Flows of raw material over the border dropped in September before picking up again in October and November, likely reflecting the resumed processing of above-ground stocks.

Imports over the September-November period totalled 32,000 tons, compared with 65,000 tons in the prior three months, when operators were rushing to beat the Aug. 1 deadline.

Chinese smelters have turned to other suppliers such as Bolivia. Imports of ore and concentrate from the South American country nearly tripled to 8,550 tons in the first 11 months of 2023 from 2,900 in the year-earlier period.

Chinese production of refined tin has so far held up well. Output in December was up 4.5% on December 2022, while full year production of 168,938 tons was 1.8% higher than 2022, according to local data provider Shanghai Metal Market.

However, it is noticeable that Chinese stocks of refined metal have been falling and imports rising, suggesting domestic output is not matching demand.

Inventory registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange has fallen from a May 2023 high of 9,673 tons to a current 6,402.

November's import tally of 5,350 tons was the highest monthly count since May 2022 and cumulative imports of 28,500 tons were up 2.7% on the same period of 2022, when refined tin imports reached their highest level since 2012.

Demand Recovery

The Western market has been well supplied in recent months and can afford to lose those units to China.

LME stocks of tin more than doubled to 7,700 tons and physical premiums slid over the course of last year.

Demand from the electronic goods sector, which accounts for around half of all tin demand in the form of circuit-board solder, has been particularly weak.

Sales of semiconductors, a useful proxy for tin solder demand, likely fell by 9.4% in 2023, according to the latest forecast from industry body World Semiconductor Trade Statistics.

However, it expects "a robust recovery" in 2024, anticipating year-on-year growth of 13.1% led by the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions.

How well the tin market can handle that sort of demand rebound will depend in large part on how long it takes the Wa State leadership to approve the full return of the Man Maw tin mine.

Source: Reuters

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Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

Economic

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday approved exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the price of bitcoin in a game-changer for the cryptocurrency industry which has been trying for more than a decade to launch such a product.

Multiple asset managers have applied for bitcoin ETFs since 2013, but the SEC rejected them on the grounds they would be vulnerable to market manipulation. In August, however, a court found the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale Investments' bitcoin ETF application, forcing the agency to rethink its stance.

On Wednesday, SEC approved applications from ARK Investments, BlackRock BLK.N and Fidelity, among others. Here is how the products work and why the approval is seen as a big deal:

How will the ETFS work?

They will be listed on Nasdaq, NYSE and the CBOE. Their assets will comprise physical bitcoin purchased from crypto exchanges and held via custodians like Coinbase Global COIN.O.

The products track a bitcoin benchmark. Some track an index provided by CF Benchmarks, a subsidiary of crypto exchange Kraken, which aggregates trading data from multiple Bitcoin-USD markets operated by big cryptocurrency exchanges.

To address the SEC's manipulation concerns, Nasdaq and CBOE have created a market surveillance mechanism with Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange.

Issuers plan to charge fees ranging from 0.20% to 0.8%, well below the broader ETF market average.

Is it different to buying bitcoin outright?

Yes. A spot bitcoin ETF allows investors to gain exposure to the price of bitcoin without the complications and risks of owning bitcoin directly. Those include setting up crypto wallets and accounts with crypto exchanges, some of which have poor cyber security records and are prone to hacks.

The industry has also experienced a string of bankruptcies and scandals, including the implosion of crypto exchange FTX, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of fraud.

Other exchanges have been accused of flouting U.S. securities laws, while Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, recently pleaded guilty to breaking U.S. anti-money laundering laws. All this continues to make many investors wary.

In contrast, ETFs are listed on tightly-regulated stock exchanges and are therefore accessible through retail investors' existing brokerage accounts, which are also closely supervised.

The ETF structure also boosts the accessibility of bitcoin for institutional investors, some of whom are barred from investing directly in alternative assets.

Why is it different to existing bitcoin futures ETFS?

The SEC in 2021 approved bitcoin futures ETF, which track agreements to buy or sell bitcoin at a pre-agreed price. But those products don't track price movements precisely, and the cost of rolling over futures contracts can eat into returns, making them less desirable for many investors.

Aren't there spot bitcoin ETFS in Canada and Europe?

Yes. But the United States is the world's largest capital market, home to some of the globe's largest asset managers and institutional investors.

How much would a bitcoin ETF reel in?

It's unclear. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO.P, the first bitcoin futures ETF approved by the SEC in 2021, saw around $1 billion worth of shares trading hands on its first day, and some experts believe a spot bitcoin ETF could net three times that much on its first day. That figure could balloon to $55 billion over five years, some expert estimate.

While bitcoin has gained 70% since the Grayscale ruling, analysts said it was unclear how much further it would rise, with some saying interest rates would play a bigger role.

But It's Not Just About the Money

For the crypto industry, a spot bitcoin ETF is a big win, boosting the legitimacy of the cryptocurrency industry and pushing bitcoin further into the mainstream.

It also comes amid a broader tug-of-war between the crypto industry and SEC, which has been cracking down on the sector. When it comes to this particular battle, the industry can claim victory.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Zi Cheng

Cryptocurrency

This approval is expected to prompt the transformation of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, currently holding approximately $29 billion worth of the cryptocurrency, into an ETF. Additionally, it is anticipated that major issuers like BlackRock's iShares and Fidelity will introduce competing funds. The inaugural trading of these funds is scheduled to commence on Thursday.

This regulatory nod could mark a pivotal moment in the integration of cryptocurrency into mainstream finance. The ETF framework offers institutions and financial advisors a recognized and regulated avenue to gain exposure to bitcoin.

This decision follows a misinformation incident on Tuesday when an official SEC social media account incorrectly claimed the approval of bitcoin ETFs. The SEC clarified that the account had been compromised.

Historically, the regulator has consistently opposed spot bitcoin funds, leading to the withdrawal of ETF applications by several firms over the years. Gary Gensler, the SEC Chair, has been a vocal critic of cryptocurrencies during his tenure.

However, there seems to be a shift in the SEC's stance on ETFs in 2023. This change could be attributed, at least in part, to a court decision in August where Grayscale won a case against the SEC. The decision criticized the SEC for impeding bitcoin ETFs while permitting funds tracking bitcoin futures.

Over 10 different firms are currently undergoing formal processes for launching bitcoin ETFs, and the competition to establish market leadership is anticipated to feature varying expense ratios and an extensive marketing push. Several of these firms have already revised down their initially proposed fees.

While the approval of these applications does not guarantee the entry of all proposed funds into the market, the Cboe website indicated on Wednesday afternoon that several bitcoin ETFs were slated to commence trading on its BZX exchange on Thursday.

The prospect of ETFs has seemingly influenced the recent upward trajectory of Bitcoin prices. Some cryptocurrency advocates believe that the introduction of bitcoin ETFs will generate fresh demand from investor types who were previously deterred by concerns about custody and the security of crypto-specific exchanges.

This approval follows a year marked by significant law enforcement actions against crypto firms and industry leaders, including the conviction of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and multiple regulatory actions against Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao.

Bitcoin ETFs Gets Approval From US Sec_1

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Thomas

Economic

Stocks

South Korea delivers its latest interest rate decision on Thursday with the main focus being policymakers' signal as to when the rate-cutting cycle begins, while Japanese stocks continue to ride the crest of an increasingly bullish wave.

The latest figures for Thai consumer sentiment, Malaysian industrial production, Australian trade and Japan's foreign exchange reserves are also out on Thursday, ahead of the most significant event for global markets this week - U.S. inflation.

Japanese markets, if not the rest of the region, are poised to open on a strong footing on Thursday after yet another solid performance on Wednesday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged to a fresh 34-year high above 34,000 points as investors ponder whether the Bank of Japan will 'normalize' policy as quickly or dramatically as they were anticipating.

The BOJ had already begun scaling back its ultra-easy policy by effectively lifting the 'yield curve control', paving the way to phase it out completely and end seven years of negative interest rate policy later this year.

But recent data suggest inflation is falling back towards the BOJ's 2% target and inflationary pressures are easing. If so, will the BOJ need to move so quickly, or even at all?

The yen is weakening, making Japanese exports more competitive in the global marketplace and making it cheaper for overseas investors to buy Japanese assets. As a result, Japanese stocks are on a tear and outperforming their peers.

The Nikkei is on course for its best week in three months and is up 3% this year, while the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index are essentially flat, the Euro STOXX 50 is down more than 1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is down 4%.

Elsewhere in Asia on Thursday, attention shifts to Seoul and the Bank of Korea's latest policy decision.

The BOK is widely expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% for an eighth consecutive meeting, but with inflation easing, speculation around when the BOK pivots is bound to intensify, especially with the Fed, ECB and other major central banks widely expected to start cutting rates soon.

Inflation is currently 3.2%, above the central bank's 2% target but cooling once again, and the won is down around 2% against the dollar so far this year.

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said in a New Year speech the central bank would adopt a "policy mix" to bring down inflation and warned that keeping monetary policy restrictive for too long posed risks.

Swaps markets currently point to a quarter-point rate cut by August and a strong probability of another by the end of the year. Nikkei Rally is No Flash in Japan_2

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- South Korea interest rate decision

- Australia trade (November)

- Malaysia industrial production (November)

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Former Bank of Japan member: The central bank is fully prepared for the first rate hike, and April is the most likely time.

2. John Williams: It's too early to talk about cutting interest rates.

3. Isabel Schnabel: It's too early to talk about interest rate cuts.

4. Affected by officials' speeches, traders lowered the ECB's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 to five times.

5. Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports hit a record in December.

6. U.S. mortgage home purchase applications hit the largest increase since June last year.

7. Luis de Guindos: The Eurozone may fall into recession.

[News Details]

Former Bank of Japan member: The central bank is fully prepared for the first rate hike, and April is the most likely time

Sakurai Makoto, the Former Bank of Japan Policy Committee member, said that the Bank of Japan is fully prepared to end the last negative interest rate in the world, and April is the most likely time. The Bank of Japan has everything in place, they are just waiting for triggers of economic data.

April is the most likely time to raise interest rates after the authorities carefully studied the preliminary results of the March wage talks. This view is in line with that of most central bank watchers. Market participants may come as a surprise to market participants that the pace of normalization will be slow after the bank's first rate hike since 2007. He said this is different from what traders are seeing in the US and Europe.

John Williams: It's too early to talk about cutting interest rates

John Williams, the New York Fed President, said in a speech on Wednesday that it is too early to call for interest rate cuts because the Fed is still some way from getting inflation back to its 2% target. The level of liquidity in the banking sector does not indicate that the Fed needs to stop shrinking its balance sheet anytime soon.

We have made significant progress in restoring economic balance and reducing inflation, but our work is not done. It is expected that we will need to maintain a restrictive policy stance for some time to fully achieve the target, and policy restrictions should only be eased if we are confident that inflation is continuing to move towards 2%.

Inflation is expected to fall to 2.25% this year and 2% next year. “Tight” monetary policy will slow growth to about 1.25% this year and cause the unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.7%, to rise to 4%.

Williams' remarks were his first speech this year. He refuted the market view in a television appearance at the end of December. At the time, the market believed that the recent FOMC meeting had paved the way for a spring rate cut.

Isabel Schnabel: It's too early to talk about interest rate cuts

Isabel Schnabel, the ECB Executive Board member, said at a social media response event on Wednesday (local time) that it is too early to talk about a rate cut at this stage and that the central bank needs to keep the key policy rate at a restrictive level. Before we cut rates, more data is needed to confirm progress towards “disinflation” until we are confident that inflation is sustainably returning to our 2% target.

Geopolitical tensions could push up energy prices or freight costs, leading to a rebound in inflation.

There may be slight differences within the central bank on the outlook for future economic development and inflation.

Financial conditions have loosened more than central bank expectations, which is a phenomenon that may be related to market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Even though the worst of the downside may be behind us, the Eurozone economy still faces the prospect of a downturn. There is evidence that sentiment indicators are bottoming out, but the economic outlook remains weak recently, which is also in line with our forecasts. Schnabel is considered to be the most hawkish of the ECB's six-member executive board. After her comments, traders reduced their expectations for a rate cut by the bank.

Affected by officials' speeches, traders lowered the ECB's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 to five times

Money markets lowered their expectations for the ECB's rate cut after ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said it was too early to discuss a rate cut. Traders are now inclined to expect the central bank to make five 25bps rate cuts by the end of the year instead of six, which is the first time since December 15 last year. Traders also lowered the ECB's rate cut forecast for the first half of 2024 by 2bps, expecting a rate cut of 8bps by March and 27bps by April.

Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports hit a record in December

Ukraine exported 4.8 million tonnes of grain through the Black Sea corridor in December, surpassing the maximum monthly export previously set by a U.N.-brokered grain deal, brokers said. Before the invasion between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine exported about 6 million tons of grain per month through the Black Sea. Spike Brokers, a wholesaler of agricultural products in Kyiv, Ukraine, said that Ukraine sent a record amount of agricultural products by water in December, thanks to the efforts of the Ukrainian Navy to ensure the normal operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor. Ukraine has exported 15 million tonnes of goods, including 10 million tonnes of agricultural products, through the Black Sea corridor since it was established in August, a senior Ukrainian government official said this week.

U.S. mortgage home purchase applications hit the largest increase since June last year

U.S. mortgage applications rose last week by the most since June, as borrowing costs hovered near seven-month lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) benchmark for mortgage home purchases rose 5.6% in the week ended January 5. The overall index of MBA mortgage applications, which includes home purchases and refinancing, rose 9.9%, the biggest increase in nearly a year. The contract rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 5bps to 6.81%, marking the second consecutive weekly increase.

Overall, interest rates are hovering around last summer's levels and down from last fall's high of nearly 8%. With the Fed signaling that it has completed raising interest rates, while the market has seen ups and downs, second-hand home sales have picked up slightly recently, and new home purchases are generally improving.

Luis de Guindos: The Eurozone may fall into recession

The ECB vice president said that the Eurozone may be in recession. The data showed that economic activity slowed in the third quarter of 2023, contracting by 0.1%. Indicators point to a contraction in the economy in December, which confirms the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of 2023.

The latest data shows that the future remains uncertain and the outlook is tilted to the downside. While the easing of inflation is “good news”, the slowdown in economic growth is even more disappointing. He said the weakness appeared to be broad-based, with the construction and manufacturing sectors being hit particularly hard. Besides, the services sector will also weaken in the coming months due to weaker activity in other sectors of the economy.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. CPI (Dec)

UTC+8 01:40 Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin Speaks

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Commodity

Stocks

Market Recap

A relatively quiet economic front overnight saw major US indices drift higher (DJIA +0.45%; S&P 500 +0.57%; Nasdaq +0.75%), reflecting broad expectations in place that the disinflation process in US will continue as intended. Rate-sensitive growth sectors led the way with strength in big tech, while appetite for risk-taking remains intact with the underperformance in defensive sectors, alongside another dip lower in the VIX. There were some pushback against overly dovish rate expectations from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams, but markets remain focused on economic data to justify rate views as compared to Fed's verbal cues lately.

Treasury yields were more indecisive however, trading in a tight range with the two-year yields ending the day roughly where it started. US 10-year yields were slightly higher by 1.5 basis point (bp), but mostly reflect wait-and-see ahead of the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) release. Broad consensus is for US December headline inflation to come in higher at 3.2%, but for core inflation to ease to 3.8% from previous 4%. With the core aspect taking on greater focus, anything that matches or below 3.8% may potentially help to keep the market confidence going.

Major US banks' earnings will be up on the radar this Friday as well, with stability of the banking sector and validation for soft landing hopes being the key market focus. A look at the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF revealed a potential bullish flag formation in place, with recent price moves trading on a near-term channel with a hover above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Any decisive move above the channel may signal a continuation of the prevailing upward trend, potentially leaving its December 2023 high on watch for a retest.

Asia Open

Asian stocks look set for a positive open, with Nikkei +1.81%, ASX +0.40% and KOSPI +0.15% at the time of writing. The Nikkei continues to extend its gains, following a recent break to a new multi-decades high above the 33,700 level of resistance. Sentiments are also finding comfort that subdued wage data and weaker household spending presented this week offer room for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its ultra-accommodative policies for longer.

South Korea's interest rate decision may warrant some focus, with the central bank keeping its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% for an eighth consecutive meeting as widely expected. Easing inflation and higher economic risks presented over the past months validate the current policy decision, but a pivot to rate cuts is still priced to be sometime out (3Q 2024, as priced by interest rate futures).

While the wait for US inflation data continues, some attention may be on the AUD/USD, which continues to hang around a crucial trendline support. A bullish cue may come from any move back above the 0.673 level, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement serves as a level of resistance to start the new year. Failure to hold the trendline support could see the pair head to retest the 0.664 level next, where dip-buying was sighted on 5 January 2024 with the formation of a bullish pin bar.

On the watchlist: Brent crude prices finding near-term resistance at upper channel trendline

Oil prices have been trading within a descending channel pattern on lower highs and lower lows since September 2023, with recent moves attempting for a break of the upper channel resistance but failed to find the much-needed success just yet. A series of resistance overhead remains in the way for buyers to tackle as well, which includes the Ichimoku cloud resistance on the daily chart and its 200-day moving average (MA).

Ahead, greater conviction for buyers may come from an upward break of the channel and for its daily relative strength index (RSI) to revert above the 50 level. A move above channel resistance may pave the way to retest the US$82.50 level next. On the downside, the US$75.84 will serve as near-term support to hold, where its year-to-date low stands. Countdown to US CPI Begins, Brent Crude Hover at Upper Channel Resistance_3

Countdown to US CPI Begins, Brent Crude Hover at Upper Channel Resistance_3

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ING

Commodity

Energy - Large US oil builds

Oil prices fell yesterday after the EIA reported an unexpected build in crude oil inventories over the last week. However, tension in the Middle East continues to grow with the Houthis launching a large missile and drone attack in the Red Sea. The attack targeted both commercial vessels and warships, but reports suggest that there was no damage to vessels or injuries.

EIA weekly inventory data shows that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.34m barrels over the week, which was quite different to the 5.2m barrel draw the API reported the previous day. While crude oil imports fell by 654k b/d WoW, exports fell by 1.9m b/d, which led to the build. Refinery activity also slowed slightly over the last week with utilisation rates falling from 93.5% to 92.9%. Despite this lower activity, there were significant builds in product stocks. Gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 8.03m barrels and 6.53m barrels respectively. With gasoline stocks standing at almost 245m barrels, they are hovering above the 5-year average. Meanwhile, distillates have now seen seven consecutive weeks of increases, which has seen stocks build by 26.8m barrels over this period. However, distillate stocks are still trending below the 5-year average. Overall, the EIA’s report was bearish with large builds in crude and product stocks.

European gas prices were relatively well supported yesterday with TTF settling just shy of 1% higher, ensuring the market remains above EUR30/MWh. The barrage of attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis would have provided some support. Obviously, with Europe more reliant on LNG imports since the Russia/Ukraine war, the European market will be more vulnerable to developments in the LNG market. The flows towards Europe which are at most risk from these attacks would be Qatari LNG flows. In 2023, about 12% of European LNG imports came from Qatar.

There is little on the energy calendar today. We will get refined product inventory numbers for the ARA region from Insights Global, while Singaporean weekly refined product inventory data will be published. On the gas side, the EIA will release its weekly storage data report. The market is expecting US gas storage to have fallen by around 122bcf over the last week, higher than the 5-year average of an 89 bcf decline.

Metals - Russian aluminium surges to 90% of LME stocks

Just above 90% of aluminium in the LME’s warehouses was of Russian origin at the end of December This is up from less than 10% before the start of the war in Ukraine and an increase from just under 80% at the end of November, the latest LME data showed. Russian metal accounted for the entire increase in LME’s stocks in December.

LME aluminium stockpiles have risen by more than a quarter over the past month, partly due to the newly implemented UK sanctions on Russia’s metal industry.

If the share of Russian aluminium on the LME continues to grow, this could ultimately lead to action from the exchange. If the LME bans Russian metal, this will likely be bullish for the metal. However, for now, the expectation is that the LME will take no action unless targeted sanctions are adopted by governments. The LME had previously said that it would be guided by the extent to which Russian metal continues to be consumed by physical market participants. Aluminium has had a disappointing start to 2024, with LME prices falling more than 6% so far this year.

Agriculture – CONAB reduces Brazilian output estimates

Brazil’s agriculture agency, CONAB, has reduced its soybean and corn production estimates for the 2023/24 season following unstable weather conditions that are delaying the planting and development of these crops. In its monthly report, CONAB estimates domestic soybean production to reach 155.3mt in 2023/24, largely in line with the market expectation of 155.4mt, but lower than its previous estimate of 160.2mt. Corn production estimates were revised down to 117.6mt for 2023/24 compared to 118.5mt previously.

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