Mexico Halts Cuba Oil Shipment Amid U.S. Pressure

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Summary:

Mexico halts Cuba oil, bowing to U.S. pressure and amid reports Washington plans regime change.

Mexico's state-owned oil firm, Pemex, has canceled a planned oil shipment to Cuba in a move widely seen as a response to pressure from the United States. The decision follows President Donald Trump's declaration that "zero" oil should reach the island and recent reports that Washington is pursuing regime change in Havana.

Sheinbaum Acknowledges Shipment Cancellation

During a press conference on Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum addressed reports about the canceled Pemex shipment, which was scheduled for January. Without explicitly denying the cancellation, she framed the action as a "sovereign decision" made by the state oil company at a time it "deemed necessary."

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum addresses the media, explaining that the decision regarding oil shipments was a sovereign one made by the state oil firm.

Washington's 'Zero Oil' Stance Triggers Policy Shift

The policy shift comes after Reuters reported last week that the Mexican government was reviewing its oil sales to Cuba, fearing potential U.S. reprisals. Washington has maintained a full trade embargo against Cuba for decades and intensified its stance by blockading Venezuelan oil shipments to the island late last year. That blockade was imposed shortly after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on drug charges.

The disruption of Venezuelan supply elevated Mexico to the position of Cuba's main petroleum provider, accounting for around 44% of its crude imports. However, President Trump’s recent insistence that "zero" money or oil should be sent to the island forced Mexico to reevaluate its trade policy.

When asked about a potential mediating role between the U.S. and Cuba, Sheinbaum stated that Mexico would only act if requested by both nations, though she affirmed her country's commitment to promoting dialogue.

Reports of U.S. Regime Change Plans

Mexico’s diplomatic efforts may face significant headwinds. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington is actively planning for regime change in Cuba before the end of the year.

The report suggests that U.S. officials are seeking "Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime." The strategy allegedly uses the capture of Venezuela's Maduro as a "blueprint" for toppling the Cuban state.

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are strongly higher, with gold leading the way this time, powering to an all-time high of $5,345.00, basis April Comex futures. The precious metals are supported by safe-haven demand as the U.S. dollar wobbles on the foreign exchange market ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting this afternoon. April gold was last up $181.60 at $5,303.00. March silver prices were up $6.668 at $112.60.

CME Group is raising margins on Comex silver futures after prices surged to a record high this week. Margins will rise to 11% of so-called notional from the current 9% for non-heightened risk profile, the exchange said in a statement on Tuesday. The heightened risk profile margins will be raised to 12.1% from the current 9.9%, it said. Platinum and palladium futures’ margin also will be hiked. The change takes effect from Wednesday’s close and follows a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage,” the CME said.

Trump says U.S. dollar weakness is good for U.S. business. The U.S. dollar index on Tuesday hit a four-year low and suffered its steepest one-day drop since last year’s tariff rollout after President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon he didn’t think the currency had weakened excessively. “This may very well be the beginning of the next leg lower in the dollar, and many may not be prepared for it,” said Stephen Jen, a former Morgan Stanley currency analyst, and as reported by Bloomberg. “There has been a generation of currency analysts accustomed to dealing with a strong dollar and a strong U.S. economy, and unable to process the scenario of a weakening dollar and a strong U.S. economy.” The U.S. dollar’s recent decline is great for U.S. businesses, Trump told reporters in Iowa. While that’s in line with previous commentary from U.S. officials, his remarks moved currency markets late Tuesday, partly because they appeared to validate the steep decline in the greenback in recent sessions. Gold rallied to another record high overnight, at $5,345.00 an ounce, basis April Comex futures, supported in part by the slumping U.S. dollar index.

FOMC decision day; likely no change in U.S. rates. The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning ends early this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is widely expected to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, the FOMC statement and Powell’s remarks at his press conference will be closely parsed by the marketplace for any clues regarding the trajectory of monetary policy in the coming months, including Fed officials’ comments on inflation.

Amazon cutting 16,000 more jobs… Amazon.com Inc. announced plans to terminate about 16,000 corporate employees, “ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy amid rising competition over artificial intelligence,” reported Bloomberg. The company will offer U.S.-based employees 90 days to search for a new role internally, as well as severance and other transition support, Beth Galetti, senior vice president of people experience and technology at Amazon, said Wednesday in a blog post. “We’ve been working to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy,” Galetti said. The job cuts were announced a few months after the company said it was cutting 14,000 jobs. Combined, the total number of terminations echoes the rolling layoffs Amazon instituted in late 2022 and early 2023 that ultimately eliminated about 27,000 people, the Bloomberg report said.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices up a bit and trading around $62.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker and the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is presently 4.24%.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Gold price powers to record high; FOMC on deck_1

Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $5,000.00. First resistance is seen at the record high of $5,345.00 and then at $5,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $5,193.60 and then at $5,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0.

Gold price powers to record high; FOMC on deck_2

March silver futures bulls have the strong chart advantage and their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $125.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $100.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $116.165 and then at the record high of $117.70. Next support is seen at $110.00 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5.

Source: kitco

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Devin

Economic

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Sara Eisen this morning that "the US always has a strong dollar policy".

This statement comes after President Trump's apparent 'comfort' last night with the dollar declining...

When asked if he was worried about losses in the dollar, Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday: "No, I think it's great."

Bessent then dropped two more tapebombs...

While stating that "WE DON'T COMMENT ON INTERVENTION SPECULATION"...

Bessent then confirmed that "US IS 'ABSOLUTELY NOT' INTERVENING IN DOLLAR-YEN NOW"

This prompted yen weakness, retracing some of the post 'rate check' rally...

...and dollar strength...

This move comes minutes after Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head warned: Near-term, feels dangerous to press dollar downside given how extreme the moves have been.

Source: Zero Hedge

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King Ten

Data Interpretation

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Germany has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing ongoing global trade uncertainty and a slower-than-expected rollout of domestic economic and fiscal policies.

The government now anticipates GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026, a reduction from the previous forecast of 1.3%. The projection for 2027 has also been trimmed from 1.4% to 1.3%.

German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche explained the revision on Wednesday, stating that "the larger economic and fiscal-policy measures that had been expected have not materialized quite as quickly and not to the extent that we had assumed."

Despite the downgrade, these figures represent an improvement over the 0.2% expansion recorded in 2025, which itself followed two consecutive years of economic contraction. The economy ministry's annual report noted that a "cyclical recovery is being supported by stronger domestic momentum, while external headwinds are easing somewhat."

Fiscal Stimulus Lagging Behind Expectations

A key pillar of Germany's growth strategy, a landmark €500 billion ($600 billion) special fund for infrastructure, is facing implementation delays. Although the national parliament approved the fund in March, only €24 billion had been invested by the end of the year, reflecting the slow pace of decision-making within Germany's federal system.

Despite the slow start, the government projects that fiscal policy measures will contribute significantly to the economy, accounting for approximately two-thirds of a percentage point of GDP growth in 2026.

However, economists and business groups have warned that this fiscal package alone is insufficient to secure long-term growth. They are calling for more comprehensive structural reforms to bolster the economy's foundation.

Persistent Headwinds for Trade and Consumption

While government spending is expected to drive growth, other areas of the economy show signs of weakness.

Private consumption is forecast to grow by only 0.8% in 2026, a notable slowdown from the 1.4% growth seen in 2025. This projection assumes the household savings rate will remain unchanged at around 10.5%.

On the trade front, Germany continues to face challenges. The economic report highlights that U.S. tariff increases from last year are still weighing on the global economy. Combined with weaker demand from key export markets outside of Europe, this will likely cause Germany to lose further global market share.

After declining for three consecutive years, exports are expected to see a modest recovery with 0.8% growth.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

A Packed Day: Fed Meeting, Tech Earnings, and Chip Optimism

Today might be the busiest market day of the first quarter if you’re paying close attention to the Fed and earnings calendars. Overnight, ASML reported blockbuster chip equipment orders and this news is already moving U.S. stock index futures.

This afternoon at 19:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. And after the stock market close at 21:00 GMT, three of the biggest names in tech—Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft—report earnings. For anyone trading the major indexes, it’s a lot happening at once, which likely means heightened volatility, so be prepared.

ASML’s Record Orders Light Up Semiconductor Sentiment

Daily ASML Holding N.V.

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines chipmakers need to produce advanced semiconductors, reported quarterly bookings of €13.2 billion—more than double what analysts expected. The company also announced a €12 billion stock buyback and said revenue from its most advanced equipment should rise significantly in 2026.

The guidance is good news for the chip sector and the AI infrastructure story more broadly. We’ve mentioned several times since earnings season began that the investors weren’t looking at the past, but the future and ASML delivered just what they were looking for. This is even better news for customer stocks because if ASML is seeing strong orders, it suggests companies like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC are still investing heavily in capacity. Investors may be anticipating this to show up in their earnings reports.

The Nasdaq Composite Index, which leans heavily on semiconductors, got an early boost from the ASML report and is expected to open higher when the cash market resumes trading at 14:30 GMT.

One caveat: ASML noted that China will account for about 20% of revenue this year, down from 33% last year, though traders seem focused on the global demand picture rather than regional slowdowns. In my opinion, China is gradually being accepted as a wildcard in the chip business due to ever-changing regulations.

Powell’s Press Conference Takes on Outsized Importance

No one expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates today, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference afterward could move markets. Investors want to know whether the Fed sees any rate cuts later this year—possibly in June or December—or if it’s inclined to stay on hold longer than expected by remaining data dependent.

There’s also unusual political tension around this meeting. President Trump has hinted he might name a potential successor to Powell this week, and the Justice Department recently issued a subpoena related to the Fed’s headquarters renovation.

Powell has called the investigation politically motivated, but he’s likely to avoid direct political commentary today. Still, the backdrop adds uncertainty to an already closely watched event. After making headlines earlier in the month, the Powell issue has become a whisper, with all experts saying Powell will stay the course until he leaves the position in May.

Three Tech Giants Could Reset the Nasdaq After Hours

After the close, Microsoft is expected to report 15% revenue growth, driven by its Azure cloud business and AI services. Meta’s forecast is even stronger, with a consensus of analysts projecting record quarterly revenue above $58 billion. Both companies carry heavy weight in the Nasdaq, so even small surprises—positive or negative—could swing futures prices after the cash market close.

Nasdaq Index: ASML Surge, Powell Remarks and Megacap Earnings Drive Today’s Forecast_2

Daily Tesla, Inc

Tesla faces a tougher setup. Analysts expect earnings to drop sharply, deliveries fell last quarter, and competition from Chinese automakers like BYD has intensified. Investors will be looking for signs that the shift to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving is gaining traction. Nonetheless, Tesla may be the stock with the greatest volatility after the company reports.

Between the Fed, chip optimism, and heavyweight earnings, today has the potential to reset expectations heading into February. It seems that investors will really be emphasizing the future from the Fed and from the companies reporting. Investors will be looking for “when” the Fed will make its first cut and “when” AI is going to pay off.

Source: fxempire

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Nathaniel Wright

Central Bank

Remarks of Officials

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Daily News

Why the Fed is Hitting the Brakes on Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its key policy rate steady on Wednesday, bringing a halt to three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each. This decision comes as the central bank navigates a murky economic landscape, with persistent inflation and mixed signals from the labor market complicating its dual mandate.

After reducing the federal funds rate by 75 basis points late last year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in December that a pause was likely. He noted the policy rate was "now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value," suggesting the central bank was "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."

According to Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management, further rate cuts are not justified at this time. "It's prudent to now take a wait and see approach," Smith said, pointing to improving labor market data, stable inflation, and the simple fact that the Fed just completed a series of cuts.

Looking further ahead, Smith anticipates a cautious path. "We expect just one rate cut for 2026," he noted, adding that "the timing of this next rate cut is debatable, it will likely come towards the second half of the year, which will also be under the rein of a new Fed Chair."

Beyond Rates: Fed Independence Under Scrutiny

While the interest rate decision is largely a foregone conclusion, investors are laser-focused on another issue: the central bank's independence. All eyes will be on whether Powell addresses the Trump administration's investigation into the Fed.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Justice served the central bank with grand jury subpoenas concerning the renovation of a Fed office building. In a highly unusual public response, Powell suggested the investigation was a form of punishment. He stated the Fed was being targeted for "setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

This development is the latest chapter in a long-running dispute between President Donald Trump and the Fed Chair. Trump has repeatedly and publicly ridiculed Powell for not lowering interest rates and has even threatened to fire him.

Powell's Press Conference: The Real Market Mover

For Wall Street, the interest rate announcement itself is already priced in. The main event will be Powell's press conference that follows the decision.

Analysts and traders will be listening for any commentary on the political pressures facing the institution. "This is the first Fed press conference since news came to light about a DOJ investigation into Powell," said GDS Wealth's Smith. "We expect Powell to address this during the press conference and broader questions about the Fed's independence."

Investors tracking the market's reaction can monitor several popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that follow the benchmark S&P 500 index, including:

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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King Ten

Remarks of Officials

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Middle East Situation

A U.S. aircraft carrier group arrived in the Middle East on January 27, dramatically raising tensions as speculation over a potential strike against Iran intensifies. The military deployment comes as Tehran carries out a brutal crackdown on nationwide protests that rights organizations report have killed thousands.

This external pressure coincides with severe internal turmoil. Iran’s currency, the rial, plunged to a historic low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 1.5 million on the same day.

US "Armada" Signals Military and Diplomatic Pressure

U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly stated he "hopes" military action against Tehran will not be necessary. However, he has also dispatched what he termed an "armada" to the region, confirming that air strikes remain an option in response to the violent suppression of largely peaceful demonstrators.

In a January 26 interview with Axios, Trump described the situation with Iran as being "in flux." He confirmed that a strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln is now in Middle Eastern waters, according to U.S. Central Command.

Despite the military posturing, Trump suggested that Tehran is eager to negotiate. "They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk," he was quoted as saying.

Nationwide Protests Met with Deadly Force

The current wave of unrest began on December 28 among shopkeepers in Tehran's markets, who were initially angered by dire economic conditions. The protests quickly spread across the country, evolving into broader demonstrations against falling living standards and the suppression of freedoms.

The response from authorities has been violent. According to the U.S.-based rights organization HRANA, the confirmed death toll has reached 6,126, a figure that includes security forces. An additional 17,091 fatalities are still under investigation. Some unofficial estimates from media outlets, citing off-the-record officials, suggest the actual number could be several times higher.

Eyewitness accounts and verified reports indicate the crackdown reached its peak on January 8 and January 9, when security forces used live ammunition against demonstrators.

Currency Collapse and Soaring Inflation Fuel Unrest

The rial's dramatic fall is symptomatic of a broader economic crisis. The annual inflation rate stands at 44.6 percent, with food prices having surged by nearly 90 percent year-on-year. For years, Iran's economy has been strained by international sanctions and the consequences of the 12-day war with Israel last June.

Internet Blackout Masks Crackdown Amid Emerging Evidence

To control the flow of information, the Iranian government has imposed a weeks-long internet blackout. The watchdog group NetBlocks confirmed in a January 26 report that the shutdown continues, with only limited access reported intermittently. NetBlocks noted that authorities are tightening controls to prevent circumvention while using whitelisted accounts to promote the government's narrative.

An Iranian government spokesman claimed on January 27 that the internet was cut "to preserve human lives," without offering further explanation.

Despite the blackout, new evidence of the suppression continues to surface online. The Vahid Online channel published images reportedly from the city of Amol on the evening of January 9. The visuals appear to show uniformed government forces armed with Kalashnikov rifles firing directly at protesters, contradicting official claims that "terrorists," not state security agents, were responsible for the killings.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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