Gold Rebounds Sharply on Weaker Dollar, Bargain Hunting

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Summary:

Gold surges on dollar weakness after a turbulent plunge; volatility persists, yet banks maintain a bullish long-term outlook.

Gold prices surged over 2% on February 4, extending a powerful rally that began the previous day with the metal's best performance since 2008. The move was driven by a combination of bargain hunting and a softer U.S. dollar, which made bullion more attractive to international buyers.

As of 9:12 a.m. Singapore time, spot gold was trading 2.2% higher at US$5,044.74 per ounce. This followed a massive 5.9% gain on February 3, its largest single-day jump since November 2008. The precious metal had previously hit a record high of US$5,594.82 on February 29.

Dollar Weakness Provides Key Support

A key factor fueling gold's recovery was the U.S. dollar, which fell against most major currencies on February 3. Traders appeared to be consolidating recent gains in the greenback, which had been powered by strong U.S. economic data and expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as its next chair. A weaker dollar makes gold, which is priced in dollars, more affordable for investors holding other currencies.

According to Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, the recent wave of forced selling in precious metals has likely concluded. However, he cautioned that the market's recent turbulence could deter retail investors.

"The intense volatility over the last week could certainly keep retail participants on the sidelines, removing an increasingly important cohort of buyers," Ghali noted.

Volatility Persists After Market Whiplash

The latest price action comes after a period of extreme volatility. In January, precious metals soared on speculative momentum, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve.

However, many market watchers warned that the rally was too large and too fast. This sentiment proved correct when the surge abruptly ended late last week. Gold experienced its most significant plunge since 2013, while silver suffered its biggest daily drop on record.

Analysts at Bank of America expect this elevated volatility in precious metals to continue. Niklas Westermark, the bank's head of EMEA commodities trading, stated that gold possesses a stronger long-term investment case than silver. He added that while market turmoil might influence position sizing, it is unlikely to diminish overall investor appetite for gold.

Banks Maintain Bullish Long-Term Outlook

Despite the recent turbulence, many major financial institutions remain confident in gold's long-term prospects. On February 2, Deutsche Bank reiterated its forecast that bullion will eventually rally to US$6,000 an ounce, signaling that the fundamental drivers for the precious metal remain intact.

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Nathaniel Wright

Remarks of Officials

Data Interpretation

Economic

Central Bank

Daily News

Bond

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady on Friday, shifting its focus from further cuts to ensuring its previous monetary easing effectively filters through the economy. A new U.S.–India trade deal has eased immediate pressure on the central bank to provide more stimulus.

A Reuters poll conducted before the trade deal was announced showed a strong consensus, with 59 of 70 economists anticipating no change in rates. While a minority had called for another cut due to low inflation and U.S. tariff risks, the trade agreement has reinforced the case for a policy pause.

Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ Bank, noted, "The U.S.-India trade deal further bolsters the case for the RBI keeping rates unchanged this week."

Since last February, the RBI has already cut its policy repo rate by a total of 125 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25%.

A "Goldilocks" Economy Supports Stability

The decision to hold rates is supported by India's strong economic performance. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the economy as being in a "Goldilocks phase" at the last policy meeting in December.

Official forecasts reflect this optimism:

• GDP growth is projected to hit 7.4% in the current financial year.

• The government's economic adviser anticipates growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the next fiscal year.

• The RBI’s own forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31 was 7.3% growth with CPI inflation at 2%.

Figure 1: Projections for India's key economic indicators show a declining repo rate alongside stabilizing inflation and robust GDP growth through 2025.

This backdrop of steady growth and controlled inflation gives the central bank room to observe the impact of its past actions.

The Challenge of Policy Transmission

Despite the aggressive rate cuts over the past year, the benefits have not fully reached borrowers. The primary challenge for the RBI is now "policy transmission"—ensuring its lower rates translate into lower funding costs across the financial system.

A key indicator of this disconnect is the benchmark 10-year government bond yield, which has barely fallen. This yield serves as a reference for pricing corporate and bank loans, and its stickiness has kept borrowing costs high, limiting the economic boost from the RBI's easing.

"The challenge now is to ensure that transmission of previous rate cuts is not hampered, while the central bank remains on an extended pause," said Kaushik Das, chief economist for India, Malaysia, and South Asia at Deutsche Bank.

Figure 2: The spread between India's 10-year bond yield and the RBI's repo rate has widened significantly, indicating that central bank rate cuts are not being fully passed through to the broader market.

Market Pressures and the RBI's Next Move

The bond market has been under significant pressure from multiple fronts. To manage foreign capital outflows from equity markets prior to the trade deal, the RBI sold $30 billion from its foreign exchange reserves between September and November. This intervention drained rupee liquidity from the system, adding to the strain on bond markets already grappling with record government borrowings.

To counter these pressures and improve policy transmission, analysts expect the RBI to increase its open market bond purchases by at least 1 trillion rupees ($10.92 billion). This move would inject liquidity into the market, ease the strain, and help bring down yields.

The need for RBI support has grown more urgent following the announcement of a higher-than-expected government borrowing program for the upcoming fiscal year. As economists at Nomura stated, "Higher market borrowing numbers mean concerns around bond supply will remain a challenge for policy transmission."

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Tech Weakness In The US Sets The Tone

Market sentiment across Asia weakened after a technology-driven sell-off on Wall Street overnight. The retreat followed a broad rotation out of high-growth tech names, pushing the Nasdaq Composite down 1.43 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 0.84 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.34 percent. Investors appeared to reallocate capital toward sectors more closely linked to near-term economic resilience, reflecting caution rather than outright risk aversion.

The sell-off was concentrated in technology, with software stocks continuing a pronounced decline into 2026. Shares of Salesforce and ServiceNow both dropped sharply, reinforcing concerns that elevated valuations remain vulnerable as earnings momentum softens.

Asia Markets Track The Downturn Unevenly

In Asia, Japan bore the brunt of the negative spillover. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.2 percent, dragged lower by technology and semiconductor-related names. Losses in companies such as Lasertec, Konami Group, and Tokyo Electron underscored the sensitivity of Japan’s market to global tech cycles. The broader Topix index also declined, though to a lesser extent, suggesting the weakness was concentrated rather than systemic.

Elsewhere, performance was more mixed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 reversed earlier losses to close higher, supported by gains in sectors less exposed to global tech volatility. South Korea’s KOSPI and its small-cap Kosdaq both advanced, indicating selective risk appetite in markets tied to domestic growth and manufacturing.

In Greater China, sentiment remained cautious. The Hang Seng Index edged lower, while mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped modestly, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around global demand and capital flows rather than a clear deterioration in local fundamentals.

Stock-Specific Pressures Add To Volatility

Individual company moves also contributed to uneven market performance. Shares of Nintendo plunged more than 9 percent despite the firm maintaining its full-year sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2 console. Investor concerns centered on rising memory prices, a key input cost for gaming hardware, highlighting how input inflation can outweigh stable revenue guidance in shaping equity valuations.

This reaction illustrates a correlation between cost pressures and equity repricing rather than a direct causal link to earnings outlook alone, as markets increasingly focus on margin sustainability.

Gold’s Breakout Signals Defensive Positioning

While equities struggled, precious metals extended their rally. Spot gold rose more than 1 percent to around $5,002 per ounce, decisively breaking above the psychologically important $5,000 level, while silver also advanced. The move reflects growing demand for safe-haven assets as investors respond to equity volatility, softer growth expectations, and lingering geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty.

The surge in gold prices suggests a defensive tilt in global portfolios. Rather than indicating panic, the shift points to a gradual rebalancing away from risk-heavy assets toward stores of value, driven by correlation between market uncertainty and hedging behavior.

Looking ahead, Asian equities are likely to remain sensitive to developments in US technology stocks and broader risk sentiment. If the tech pullback deepens, markets with heavy exposure to semiconductors and software could face further pressure. At the same time, the strength in gold highlights persistent demand for protection against volatility, suggesting that caution, rather than confidence, continues to shape global investor behavior.

Source: CNBC

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Thomas

Remarks of Officials

Data Interpretation

Stocks

Economic

Central Bank

Political

Bond

Thailand's sluggish economy has pushed its stocks and bonds into a precarious position: cheap, overlooked, and increasingly off the radar for global capital. With a general election this weekend, major money managers are signaling caution, viewing the vote as more likely to worsen existing challenges than to solve them.

Persistent issues like high household debt and weak growth have already taken their toll. In the past year, Thai stocks were among the world's worst performers, while its bonds lagged most emerging market peers in 2026. Investors see little reason to believe the country's fourth leader in three years can deliver the reforms needed to fix poor governance and policy drift.

The market consensus points to a steeper yield curve, driven by potential interest rate cuts and government spending, while equities remain depressed as capital seeks opportunities elsewhere.

"Thailand does look cheap in terms of valuations," said Christopher Leow, chief investment officer at Principal Asset Management in Singapore. "But looking cheap is probably not enough."

Global Fund Managers Keep Their Distance

The sentiment is clear among institutional investors, who are limiting their exposure ahead of the election.

• T Rowe Price Group Inc. has reduced its bond holdings and remains cautious on local currency debt, waiting for clear policy direction before committing more capital.

• Allianz Global Investors holds a broadly underweight allocation but is considering a shift into longer-duration bonds.

• Aberdeen is favoring defensive stocks and exporters to minimize exposure to the domestic Thai economy, warning that a fragile coalition government could lead to uneven policy execution.

"For lasting investor confidence, the election is only the starting point," said Nattanont Arunyakananda, an investment manager at Aberdeen in Bangkok. He stressed that the outlook depends on credible reforms and sustained fiscal and monetary support. "Without reforms that lift productivity and improve the investment climate, any post-election bounce is likely to remain tactical rather than structural."

History Suggests a Short-Lived Rally

Historically, Thai markets have seen a brief lift after elections. Over the past three votes, the benchmark Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index gained an average of 3.3% in the month following the polls. However, these rallies often fade as political realities set in.

A chart showing mixed results for the Thai SET index one and six months after elections from 2001 to 2023.

The ongoing worries are forcing a rethink of Thai assets in international portfolios. Once valued for their exposure to global growth, they have lost appeal due to a stagnant economy, weak tourism, and recurring political instability.

Debt and Spending Promises Weigh on Markets

A key concern is the expected rise in debt issuance needed to fund campaign promises from leading political parties. With the central bank forecasting economic growth of just 2.2% in 2025—trailing regional peers—the government has already approved a US$1.4 billion food and services subsidy program.

These additional spending pledges have helped push the spread between Thailand's two- and 10-year bond yields to its widest point since October 2023.

A line graph showing the spread between Thailand's 2-year and 10-year government bonds steepening to its highest level since October 2023.

"We'll be looking for them to invest into unleashing the potential of the economy," said Leonard Kwan, a portfolio manager at T Rowe Price in Hong Kong. While Thailand has some fiscal capacity, he added, "the key question is effectiveness in how they utilize it."

Finding Value Amid the Gloom

Despite the bearish outlook, some signs of value are emerging. Thai stocks are trading at around 14 times forward earnings, which is below both their five-year average and a gauge of regional peers. The steepening yield curve, with expectations of higher fiscal spending already priced in, may also present opportunities at the long end.

BlackRock Inc., while holding less exposure than a year ago, has recently begun buying more bonds with longer maturities, according to Navin Saigal, its Asia Pacific head of fundamental fixed income in Singapore.

The Verdict: A 'Muddle-Through' Scenario

Ultimately, investors are watching to see if the election will be followed by meaningful reforms or if policy will be watered down by the compromises needed to form a government. The frequent turnover in political leadership is also dimming hopes for lasting change.

"With no clear majority for any single party in sight, it's hard to envisage a sharp turn in investor confidence," said Wai Kiat Soh, a portfolio manager at Ninety One in Singapore. "The 'muddle-through' scenario will likely play out once again."

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

A Tough Earnings Backdrop For European Majors

European energy giants are bracing for a difficult round of earnings, with market expectations pointing to sharply weaker fourth-quarter results. Companies such as Shell and TotalEnergies are forecast to report their lowest quarterly profits in almost five years, according to analyst consensus compiled by LSEG. This deterioration reflects a prolonged period of softer crude prices, which has eroded cash generation across the sector.

The pressure is particularly acute in Europe, where oil and gas firms face a combination of cyclical commodity weakness and structural challenges linked to energy transition commitments. Lower earnings are translating into reduced free cash flow, forcing management teams to reassess how capital is allocated between shareholders, core operations, and future investment.

Why Shareholder Returns Are Now At Risk

For years, Western oil majors have relied on dividends and share buybacks to maintain investor confidence. In the current environment, however, analysts see these commitments becoming harder to sustain in their existing form. According to S&P Global Energy’s chief energy strategist Atul Arya, European companies are unlikely to cut dividends, which are widely viewed as a cornerstone of capital discipline. Instead, they are more likely to reduce share buybacks and potentially slow capital spending.

This dynamic highlights a clear hierarchy in payout decisions. Dividends are treated as a long-term signal of financial stability, while buybacks are more flexible and cyclical. The relationship here is one of prioritization rather than direct causation, with weaker oil prices correlating with reduced financial headroom and prompting firms to pull the least reputationally damaging lever first.

Capital Spending And The Energy Transition Trade-Off

Any effort to preserve shareholder payouts by cutting costs raises difficult questions about investment priorities. Arya noted that trimming capital programs would most likely affect low-carbon projects rather than traditional oil and gas exploration and development. Reducing spending on core hydrocarbon projects could undermine future production and send negative signals to investors about long-term value creation.

At the same time, taking on additional debt to fund payouts appears unattractive. Many European energy majors already carry relatively high leverage, limiting their willingness to borrow simply to maintain buybacks. This constraint reinforces the likelihood that shareholder returns will be adjusted downward rather than defended at all costs.

Europe Versus The United States

The contrast with US oil majors is striking. Exxon Mobil and Chevron recently reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, even as oil prices recorded their steepest annual decline in years due to oversupply. These results have helped ease concerns about the sustainability of shareholder payouts in the US, where balance sheets and asset portfolios appear better positioned to absorb price volatility.

European firms such as Equinor and BP do not enjoy the same margin of safety. BP has already demonstrated how quickly buybacks can be adjusted, cutting its quarterly share repurchase program to $750 million from $1.75 billion previously after disappointing earnings. TotalEnergies has similarly signaled a willingness to moderate buybacks in response to economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Why Buybacks Are The First Lever Pulled

Market analysts broadly agree that buybacks are the most vulnerable component of shareholder returns. Dividends are often described as “sacrosanct” because they anchor investor expectations and restrain excessive spending. Buybacks, by contrast, are explicitly designed to be opportunistic, expanding during boom periods and contracting when conditions deteriorate.

A prolonged phase of lower crude prices increases the temptation to scale back repurchases, particularly when management teams are under pressure to protect balance sheets. This reflects a cyclical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift away from shareholder-friendly policies, although the duration of the downturn will determine how deep those adjustments become.

From Windfall Profits To Capital Restraint

The current mood marks a sharp reversal from the extraordinary conditions of 2022, when soaring fossil fuel prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine delivered nearly $200 billion in combined profits to the world’s five largest oil companies. That windfall enabled generous dividends and aggressive buyback programs, drawing political criticism even as investors were rewarded.

Today, the industry is operating in a far less forgiving environment. While dividends are likely to be defended, the outlook for buybacks appears fragile. As earnings season unfolds, the key question for investors is not whether payouts will be cut immediately, but how long European oil majors can balance shareholder expectations against weaker prices, high leverage, and competing demands on capital.

Source: CNBC

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Justin

Economic

China's services activity expanded at its quickest pace in three months in January, buoyed by stronger new orders and pushing hiring to its highest since July last year, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday.

The RatingDog China General Services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, edged up to 52.3 in January from 52.0 the previous month, the highest reading since October. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction.

The reading, coupled with the manufacturing survey, points to a tentative improvement for some businesses at the start of the year. However, they contrast with an official survey which showed both factory and services activity losing momentum. Barclays analysts say recent readings suggest the front-loaded measures may be insufficient, or may still need time to translate into improved sentiment and activity.

According to the RatingDog survey, the Composite Output Index, which combines manufacturing and services performance, rose to 51.6, compared with 51.3 in December.

Growth in new orders in the services sector picked up from December. New product launches also lifted export business.

To cope with rising workload, service providers hired more full-time and temporary staff at the start of the year. Although marginal, the increase marked the first rise in headcount since July 2025.

Average input costs increased at a slower pace in January, while output charges fell as some service providers lowered prices to support sales.

Business sentiment remained positive as companies were hopeful that expansion plans and better market conditions would lift growth in sales and activity this year. However, confidence slipped from December and was below the 2025 average, reflecting concerns over the global economic outlook.

Looking ahead to February, Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, said consumption-oriented services such as culture and tourism, catering, and instant retail may see growth driven by the extended nine-day Spring Festival holiday. Producer services, by contrast, are likely to enter a seasonal lull due to factory closures.

According to data by China's Tujia, an online holiday rental portal, booking of homestays grew 48% week-on-week from January, with February 17-19 being the most popular period.

The Spring Festival holidays, as the new year celebrations are known in China, run from February 15 to 23.

This year's Lunar New Year travel rush, the world's biggest annual human migration, kicked off on Monday and will last for 40 days.

Authorities expect a record 9.5 billion passenger trips to be made during the travel period, surpassing the 9.02 billion trips made last year.

Source: TradingView

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Gerik

Economic

A Post-Pandemic Construction Surge

Construction activity in Singapore has accelerated sharply since the pandemic, driven by a wave of large-scale infrastructure and commercial developments. Mega projects such as the new terminal at Changi Airport, an $8 billion Las Vegas Sands expansion, and the Tengah General and Community Hospital are reshaping the city-state’s physical landscape. The hospital alone is expected to add 4,000 patient beds by 2030, underlining the scale and long-term nature of current investment.

In January, the Building and Construction Authority projected construction demand of up to 53 billion Singapore dollars this year, equivalent to about $42 billion, representing a 15% upward revision from earlier estimates. This surge reflects sustained confidence in public and private sector spending rather than a short-lived rebound.

Why Costs Remain Among The World’s Highest

While the boom supports economic growth, it has intensified cost pressures in an already expensive market. Construction consultancy Turner and Townsend estimates that building costs could rise by as much as 5% this year. This increase is associated with ongoing supply chain disruptions affecting materials such as cement and ready-mixed concrete, extended lead times for plumbing and electrical systems, and sharply higher prices for semiconductors embedded in modern building infrastructure.

Labor constraints add another layer of complexity. Beyond shortages of general workers, Singapore faces a particularly tight market for professionals, managers, executives, and technicians. These capability gaps tend to affect project timelines and quality, especially for specialist subcontractors on large developments. The pressure on skilled labor is correlated with rising costs and delivery risk, rather than being the sole cause of delays, but it remains a persistent structural challenge.

Redesigning The Workforce Model

To cope with labor shortages, firms are rethinking how human capital is deployed. One emerging response is “double hatting,” where employees are trained to take on multiple roles. Engineers, for example, are increasingly expected to operate digital tools that reduce repetitive tasks, allowing them to focus on higher-value execution and coordination work.

This approach enables companies to deliver projects with smaller teams while maintaining output levels. Analysts expect strong contract awards to continue through 2026, followed by four years of elevated construction activity, suggesting that workforce flexibility will remain central to sustaining the upcycle.

Technology As A Cost-Control Lever

Technology adoption has become a defining feature of Singapore’s construction response. Contractors are shifting away from labor-intensive building toward high-specification industrial and infrastructure projects, supported by prefabrication and enterprise-level digital systems. These changes aim to improve cost efficiency and reduce dependence on scarce labor.

Robots and drones are playing an expanding role. Some firms already use drones combined with artificial intelligence to inspect building facades, while new models are being developed to wash and paint exteriors, cutting the need for scaffolding and reducing safety risks. Painting robots offer a stark productivity comparison, with one machine capable of covering up to 1,500 square meters per day, compared with around 200 square meters for a human worker.

Although such equipment can cost between $70,000 and $120,000 per unit, the investment is expected to improve margins over time. From April, the Building and Construction Authority will introduce new grants for smaller firms to invest in automation and robotics, targeting manpower savings of up to 50%. These measures are designed to address efficiency challenges rather than directly suppress costs, yet they influence long-term competitiveness.

A Prolonged Upcycle, Not A Peak

Despite the scale of current projects, industry analysts believe Singapore’s construction cycle has not yet reached its peak. Estimates now suggest contractor earnings will crest in the 2028 to 2029 financial years, later than previously forecast. Earnings per share growth across covered firms is projected to range between 16% and 41% from 2026 to 2028, reflecting sustained demand and operational leverage from technology adoption.

Looking further ahead, Singapore’s master plan over the next 10 to 15 years includes new parks, residential developments, and subway lines. With land scarcity intensifying planning trade-offs, decisions about what to build and what to preserve are becoming more complex, reinforcing the need for precision and efficiency rather than expansion alone.

Building Beyond Economics

Rising construction costs inevitably feed into a higher cost of living, particularly in private housing, which has become increasingly expensive. Yet Singapore’s infrastructure projects are often delivered on time and within budget, a result of long-term planning focused on functional needs rather than short-term political cycles.

Increasingly, construction is seen as a tool for shaping urban quality rather than simply adding capacity. New developments emphasize integration with surrounding neighborhoods, environmental features such as rainwater harvesting, and broader goals of livability. This approach reflects a strategic evolution from building for growth to designing for resilience, positioning Singapore as a case study in how technology and governance can partially offset the pressures of one of the world’s costliest construction environments.

Source: CNBC

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Gold Rebounds Sharply on Weaker Dollar, Bargain Hunting

Dollar Weakness Provides Key Support

Volatility Persists After Market Whiplash

Banks Maintain Bullish Long-Term Outlook

India's RBI to Hold Rates, Shift Focus to Transmission

A "Goldilocks" Economy Supports Stability

Figure 1: Projections for India's key economic indicators show a declining repo rate alongside stabilizing inflation and robust GDP growth through 2025.

The Challenge of Policy Transmission

Figure 2: The spread between India's 10-year bond yield and the RBI's repo rate has widened significantly, indicating that central bank rate cuts are not being fully passed through to the broader market.

Market Pressures and the RBI's Next Move

Gold Breaks $5,000 As Asia Equities Stumble On Tech-Led Wall Street Retreat

Tech Weakness In The US Sets The Tone

Asia Markets Track The Downturn Unevenly

Stock-Specific Pressures Add To Volatility

Gold’s Breakout Signals Defensive Positioning

Source: CNBC

Thai Markets Unloved as Election Stokes Investor Fears

Global Fund Managers Keep Their Distance

History Suggests a Short-Lived Rally

A chart showing mixed results for the Thai SET index one and six months after elections from 2001 to 2023.

Debt and Spending Promises Weigh on Markets

A line graph showing the spread between Thailand's 2-year and 10-year government bonds steepening to its highest level since October 2023.

Finding Value Amid the Gloom

The Verdict: A 'Muddle-Through' Scenario

Big Oil’s Payout Model Under Strain As Lower Crude Prices Bite

A Tough Earnings Backdrop For European Majors

Why Shareholder Returns Are Now At Risk

Capital Spending And The Energy Transition Trade-Off

Europe Versus The United States

Why Buybacks Are The First Lever Pulled

From Windfall Profits To Capital Restraint

Source: CNBC

China Services Activity Picks Up In January, Hiring Hits 6‑month High, Survey Shows

Source: TradingView

Singapore’s High-Tech Answer To A Global Construction Cost Crunch

A Post-Pandemic Construction Surge

Why Costs Remain Among The World’s Highest

Redesigning The Workforce Model

Technology As A Cost-Control Lever

A Prolonged Upcycle, Not A Peak

Building Beyond Economics

Source: CNBC

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