Gold Extends Gains Above $5,000 as Debasement Trade Gathers Pace

Commodity

Summary:

Gold stayed above $5,000 as investors fled currencies and bonds amid geopolitical risks and debasement fears, while silver surged on strong demand, pushing precious metals sharply higher.

Gold rose for a second consecutive day, holding above $5,000 an ounce as geopolitical risks and a flight from sovereign bonds and currencies extended the metal’s rally.

Bullion climbed as much as 1.8% on Tuesday for a seventh straight day of gains, while silver jumped more than 9%. Strong investment demand has sent precious metals sharply higher this month, with silver up 57% since the start of January. Gold and platinum have also posted significant advances.

Recent weeks have seen a revival of the so-called debasement trade, as investors retreat from currencies and Treasuries. A massive selloff in the Japanese bond market is the latest example of concerns over heavy fiscal spending, while speculation that the US may intervene to support the yen has weighed on the dollar, making precious metals cheaper for most buyers.

The Trump administration’s actions — threats to annex Greenland and military intervention in Venezuela, as well as renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence — have also unsettled markets.

On Sunday, the president threatened to hike tariffs on South Korean goods, citing what he said was the failure of the country’s legislature to codify a trade deal. The warning followed a threat over the weekend to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if Ottawa reaches a trade agreement with China.

Gold Extends Gains Above $5,000 as Debasement Trade Gathers Pace_1

America’s growing isolation from other nations is prompting many investors to cut holdings of dollar assets and shift into gold, according to Europe’s largest money manager, Amundi SA.

“Gold in the long term is a very good protection against debasement and a good way to maintain some purchasing power,” Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s chief investment officer, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Gold’s appeal is also showing up in positioning data, with options traders bracing for further gains in a market where few are willing to bet against the rally. Implied volatility on Comex futures climbed to the highest since the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, while volatility on State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares — the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund — has also moved sharply higher.

“Gold’s continued rise reflects investment motives which may be persistent: higher reserve allocations, and investors raising allocations to non-dollar and real assets,” analysts at Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a note Monday, raising their forecast to $6,000 an ounce by year-end.

Silver, meanwhile, moved toward an all-time high above $117.71 reached in the previous session, when it posted its biggest intraday jump since the global financial crisis in 2008. The rally has been supported by strong physical demand and speculative interest in a relatively illiquid market, with signs that buyers in China are leading the move.

Extreme price swings in silver have driven heavy trading volumes in iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, with almost $40 billion in turnover recorded on Monday.

That’s almost on a par with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and exceeds the $23 billion of trading in Nvidia stock or Tesla’s $22 billion in turnover. A few months ago, daily trading in the silver ETF was about $2 billion, before it increased to around $10 billion in late December.

Gold rose 1.5% to $5,081.17 an ounce as of 12:14 p.m. in London. Silver advanced 7.8% to $111.89 Platinum climbed 3.3% and palladium was up 3.9%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower.

Source: Bloomberg

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King Ten

Data Interpretation

Central Bank

Remarks of Officials

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Russia's central bank is grappling with conflicting signals on inflation from businesses and consumers ahead of its crucial interest rate decision on February 13. While a rate cut was widely expected this year to stimulate an economy that slowed to 1% growth, fresh price pressures are complicating the outlook.

Business and Household Inflation Expectations Diverge

Two key surveys, one of businesses and one of households, are painting a confusing picture for policymakers. These polls are critical gauges for the central bank as it charts its course on monetary policy.

Business Pessimism Hits a Post-2022 High

A recent poll of Russian businesses reveals that price expectations have surged to their highest level since the early months of the military action in Ukraine in 2022. Companies are now projecting a 2026 inflation rate of 9.3%, more than double the official government forecast of 4% to 5%.

Household Views Remain High but Stable

In contrast, household inflation expectations held steady at 13.7% in January, matching the December figure after rising in the previous two months. However, this highlights a significant gap with official data. The same poll showed that the public's perceived inflation rate is 14.5%, far above the official annual rate of 6.5%. This deep-seated mistrust of official statistics helps explain why Russia's central bank maintains one of the world's highest real interest rates.

The Policy Dilemma: To Cut or to Hold?

The recent spike in prices, driven by a government decision to raise the value-added tax (VAT) to 22% on January 1, has cast doubt on earlier declarations that inflation was defeated. This has left analysts divided on the bank's next move.

Andrei Melaschenko of Renaissance Capital noted that the acceleration in prices through December and early January makes holding the rate steady a more probable outcome. "The option of keeping the rate unchanged [is] more likely at the moment," he said.

This view challenges earlier market consensus. A Reuters poll from December showed analysts anticipated the central bank would lower its key rate from the current 16% to 15% in the first quarter of the year.

Balancing Short-Term Spikes and Long-Term Growth

The central bank has previously signaled that it views the inflation surge from the VAT hike as a one-off event with short-term effects. Officials have also pointed to the positive long-term impact on the government's budget balance.

However, some experts warn against an overly aggressive response. Analysts at BCS brokerage argued that keeping rates high to fight a temporary price shock could backfire. "An excessively strict response to short-term effects... could significantly intensify the slowdown in the economy in the medium term," they stated.

Following the upcoming meeting, the bank's next rate-setting decision is scheduled for March 20.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Stocks

European stocks were broadly higher on Tuesday, as investors reacted to the European Union’s landmark trade deal with India and braced for a flurry of corporate earnings.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was last seen 0.3% higher, with most sectors and major bourses in positive territory.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Tuesday that India and the EU had closed a “landmark” free trade agreement, touted as the “mother of all deals.” The agreement represents about 25% of global gross domestic product and about a third of global trade.

The EU’s biggest exports to India are machinery, transport equipment and chemicals, according to the European Council. The bloc’s biggest imports from India are machinery, chemicals and fuels.

Europe’s Stoxx Chemicals index was last seen trading 0.8% lower, while the trade-sensitive autos sector shed 0.7%. Regional industrials stocks added 0.1%.

Earnings season is getting underway again with regional investors keeping an eye on the latest financial reports from ASML, Volvo, LVMH and Deutsche Bank, among others, this week. On Tuesday, Atlas Copco, Sandvik and Logitech International are due to report.

Stock moves

Looking at individual stocks, Puma jumped 8.6% after China’s Anta Sports confirmed it would buy a 29% from France’s billionaire Pinault family for 1.5 billion euros ($1.78 billion).

Swedish medical equipment maker Getinge slipped toward the bottom of the regional index, down 6.5% after the firm reported a slight drop in order intake for the fourth quarter of 2025. Full-year revenue came in at 34.97 billion Swedish kronor ($39.1 billion), slightly below expectations set out in a consensus compiled by LSEG.

British bootmaker Dr Martens shed 12% after the company posted disappointing quarterly results and forecast roughly flat revenue growth for 2026. Revenue fell 3.1% to £251 million ($343 million) in its fiscal third quarter, led by a 7% drop in direct-to-consumer sales as the company scaled back its promotions. Wholesale revenue, however, increased 9.3%.

“This is a year of pivot, as we make the necessary changes to our business to set us up for future sustainable growth,” Chief Executive Ije Nwokorie said in a statement alongside the results, adding that he is “laser focused” on executing Dr Martens’ strategy of reducing discounts, driving growth in other products, opening in new markets, and simplifying its operational model.

South Korea tariffs

There’s been more global trade uncertainty overnight after U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at South Korea Monday, saying he would increase tariffs on Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Trump said on Truth Social that the country’s legislature has not approved Seoul’s trade deal with Washington, and that tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber would rise from 15% to 25%. Shares of South Korean autos fell sharply but pared losses overnight.

S&P 500 futures were near the flatline overnight after the major averages started the busy earnings week on a positive note. Investors are also waiting for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week.

The central bank is widely expected to keep its key rate at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but traders will search for clues on when future cuts may come.

Source: cnbc

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Isaac Bennett

Remarks of Officials

Political

Economic

Daily News

China–U.S. Trade War

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has declared that his government will not be forced to pick a side between the United States and China, emphasizing a dual approach of maintaining close ties with Washington while actively engaging with Beijing. His comments signal a key foreign policy direction ahead of his planned visit to China.

Starmer confirmed that the UK will preserve its strong security, business, and defense relationship with the U.S. However, he argued that "sticking your head in the sand and ignoring China" is not a viable strategy.

A Push for Economic Ties with Beijing

The Prime Minister's planned state visit to China—the first by a UK leader in eight years—is framed as a move to unlock major economic benefits. Starmer stated the trip could create "significant opportunities" for British companies and is expected to include a delegation of UK business leaders for stops in Shanghai and Beijing.

Addressing potential security concerns, Starmer insisted that building a relationship with China "does not mean compromising on national security – quite the opposite."

This diplomatic outreach follows the UK government's recent and controversial approval for China to establish a new embassy in London. The decision proceeded despite opposition concerns that the facility could be used for espionage activities against the United Kingdom.

Navigating US Trade Friction

Starmer’s balanced approach comes amid a backdrop of global trade tensions, particularly involving the United States under President Trump. The Prime Minister's visit to China could risk friction with Washington, which has previously threatened allies over their economic ties with Beijing.

Trump's Tariff Threats on Allies

President Trump has shown a willingness to use tariffs to enforce his foreign and economic policy goals. In one instance, he threatened to impose tariffs on allied nations that opposed the U.S. acquisition of Greenland, stating, "we need Greenland for national security." While tensions later subsided after Trump clarified he would seek negotiations rather than use force, the episode highlighted his transactional approach.

More directly, Trump threatened Canada with a 100% tariff after the country reached a "strategic partnership" trade deal with the Chinese government. The threat emerged after Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech in Davos was perceived as critical of the U.S. world order.

The Canada-China agreement included several key tariff reductions:

• China would lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15%.

• Canada would cut taxes on Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1%.

Pressure on South Korea

The U.S. has also applied economic pressure on other key partners. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%, targeting products like automobiles, lumber, and pharmaceuticals. He accused South Korea of failing to honor a trade deal struck the previous year.

The announcement caused a sharp reaction in South Korea's stock market, particularly affecting carmakers. In response, Seoul urged Trump to reaffirm his commitment to their trade agreement, under which President Lee Jae Myung had agreed last July for South Korea to invest $350 billion in the United States.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Where exactly is the expected supply glut in the global crude market?

The best answer is China, which saw storage flows surge in December, resulting in a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day for 2025.

China's surplus of crude oil jumped to 2.67 million bpd in December, up from 1.88 million bpd in November and the most since the 2.27 million bpd seen in June 2020, when the world's largest crude buyer was gorging on cheap oil at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For 2025 the volume of surplus crude was 1.13 million bpd, largely steady from the 1.15 million bpd seen in 2024, according to calculations based on official data.

China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output.

It is worth noting that not all the surplus crude was likely to have been added to storage, with some being processed in plants not captured by the official data.

But even allowing for those gaps, it is clear that from March 2025 onwards, China was importing crude at a far higher rate than necessary to meet domestic fuel demand.

December's crude imports surged to a record 13.18 million bpd, up 17% from the same month in 2024, with the strong arrivals taking imports for the full year to 11.55 million bpd, another all-time peak and up 4.4% from the prior year.

Domestic crude production was 4.19 million bpd, while output for the full year was up 1.5% to 4.32 million bpd.

Combining December's imports and domestic production yields 17.37 million bpd of crude available to refiners.

December refinery throughput was 14.7 million bpd, meaning that the monthly surplus was 2.67 million bpd.

For 2025 China's refiners processed 14.75 million bpd, a record high exceeding the 14.7 million bpd from 2023.

Despite the increase in refinery throughput, the surplus for the year amounted to 1.13 million bpd as the total volume of available crude of 15.88 million bpd outweighed refinery processing of 14.75 million bpd.

The volume of surplus crude flowing into China largely answers the question as to where the global surplus of crude oil is.

China soaks up the crude oil glut, but only if the price is right_1

China total crude available vs refinery throughput

WILL CHINA BUYING LAST?

Amin Nasser, the chief executive of the world's largest oil exporter Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) , told the Davos forum last week that "oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated."

That statement really only holds true for as long as China keeps buying way more oil than it needs to meet domestic demand and exports of refined products.

What would happen to the crude price if China pared back its imports by around 1 million bpd in 2026 from 2025 levels?

This would act as a drag on the crude price and make it challenging to outline a bullish case in the absence of a major supply interruption caused by geopolitical conflict.

The question is whether China is likely to continue boosting its crude stockpiles in 2026.

China has long aimed to build its strategic reserves by as much as 500 million barrels, meaning there is plenty of scope for it to continue to buy more than it needs to meet demand.

But the key factor will be price.

China has shown in the past that it tends to pull back on imports when oil prices rise too high or too quickly.

China made a rare draw on stockpiles in the first two months of 2025, a period after a rise in global benchmark Brent futures to a six-month high above $80 a barrel.

Similarly, China tends to boost imports when crude prices fall, with the recent strength in imports coming after Brent entered a sustained downtrend from July last year to an eight-month low of $58.72 a barrel by December 16.

It's likely that China will continue to buy extra crude for as long as prices remain at levels deemed reasonable.

Source: reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stocks were gaining premarket Tuesday with trade relations and big-name earnings competing for the spotlight on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest-rates decision .

Trump said the U.S. would increase tariffs on South Korea , accusing Seoul of not implementing a trade pact quickly enough.

Meanwhile, India and the EU finalized a free-trade agreement that the latter said would eliminate or reduce tariffs for more than 90% of its goods.

Boeing and RTX Corp are among the companies reporting earnings today, with results from four members of the Magnificent Seven megacap tech group due out later this week.

UnitedHealth reported earnings before the bell.

"This week is pivotal in setting the market's near--term tone as 2026 progresses," SWBC said. "History shows that a strong January often frames the narrative for the rest of the year, with investor psychology playing an outsized role."

Investors are looking out for any government moves to shift the dollar-yen exchange rate. The possibility of a government shutdown also looms large.

Stocks to Watch

Humana and CVS Health fell in offhours trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration had proposed roughly flat rates for Medicare insurers next year. Shares of UnitedHealth slid nearly 10% premarket ahead of earnings.

Nike is laying off about 775 workers, or around 1% of its overall workforce, as it ramps up automation.

The chairman of the Senate's antitrust subcommittee raised concerns over Netflix's proposed deal with Warner Bros. Discovery.

Chip stocks rose ahead of the open, with Micron among the bigger gainers. The company said it plans to invest roughly $24 billion in Singapore to meet surging memory-chip demand.

Anta agreed to acquire a stake in Puma for $1.8 billion, making it the biggest shareholder. Puma shares jumped.

Tesla's new-car registrations in Europe dropped 20% on the year in December, according to an industry body.

The U.S. Army signed a $5.6 billion, 10-year contract with Salesforce, part of a drive to adopt commercial software tools. Shares rose 2% premarket.

Economic Insight

Navellier expects a big debate about inflation

surrounding Trump's upcoming Fed chair nomination, which requires Senate confirmation.

"Due to falling rental and home prices, low crude oil prices, plus all the deflation imported from China and weak economies around the world, a serious deflation risk is brewing that would require the Fed to slash key interest rates by at least 1%."

Markets expect the next chair to push a few more rate cuts over the summer, but an extended pause seems more likely if growth stays strong and labor demand recovers, Russell Investments said.

Watch For:

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November; New Home Sales for December; Conference Board - Consumer Confidence for January; Federal Open Market Committee meeting; earnings from Boeing, General Motors, RTX Corp, United Parcel Service, UnitedHealth Group

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Fed Set to Pause Rate Cuts, With No Clear Path to Resuming

- Stung by Trump, America's Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China

- Wall Street Is Fixated on a Possible Yen Intervention

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The yen turned higher against the dollar, briefly reaching an 11-week high against the dollar before trimming gains.

ING said the dollar could find some stability after two days of heavy selling, noting that resilient U.S. economic data and the upcoming FOMC meeting are mildly positive for the greenback.

Barclays said the sharp drop in USD/JPY following the intervention signals could translate into a bigger and broader dollar depreciation trend .

MUFG said the yen had started to give back some of its recent gains and would likely resume weakening without more signs of intervention .

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose as markets priced in an interest-rate hold .

Although standing pat won't appeal to the White House, it is consistent with market expectations and, more importantly, with the healthy U.S. economic cycle observed to date, Natixis IM Solutions said.

ING said increased government expenditure comes with fiscal risks and Japan last week reminded markets that these shouldn't be ignored, especially not by Treasury investors.

HSBC said a sudden pickup in U.S. rates volatility is the biggest risk facing bond markets .

Energy:

Oil prices fell as traders monitored global supplies and the impact of a massive storm on U.S. production.

"Despite recent rallies, sentiment has been weighed by expectations that global oil output will continue to outpace demand ," MUFG said.

Still, losses are capped by freezing conditions in the U.S. boosting demand for heating fuels and straining energy infrastructure.

Gas

U.S. natural-gas prices eased after hitting their highest in three years due to the impact of the storm on heating demand and refinery operations.

Metals:

Gold prices slipped in early trade but continued to hold above $5,000 .

Investors now await U.S. consumer confidence data later on Tuesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday.

Silver futures were down. The precious metal entered 2026 in a structural bull market , thanks to factors including resilient industrial demand, OCBC Group Research said.

China's decision to allow foreigners to invest in domestic nickel and lithium futures contracts is a highly significant move, according to BANDS Financial.

Copper

Prices fell on a firmer dollar but remained above the $13,000 mark .

"Stockpiles of copper in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose last week to their highest seasonal level on record, suggesting demand has been soft," ANZ Research said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

EU to Provide Google with Data-Sharing Compliance Guidance

The European Union has launched a new legal process to help Alphabet's Google comply with the bloc's digital-competition rulebook.

The European Commission said Tuesday that it had opened so-called specification proceedings into Google's compliance with the Digital Markets Act, a law designed to level the playing field for companies that rely on search engines and app stores to reach customers.

Tesla Ends 2025 With Lower Sales in Europe, While China's BYD Powers On

Tesla closed the year with lower sales in Europe as Chinese auto giant BYD continued to outpace Elon Musk's electric-vehicle maker.

New-car registrations for Tesla models, a reflection of sales, slumped 20% on year to 35,280 units in December across the European Union, the U.K., Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, an industry body also known as ACEA. On an annual basis, Tesla sales contracted 27% to 238,656 units.

Micron to Invest $24 Billion in Singapore to Boost Chip Production

Micron Technology plans to invest about US$24 billion in Singapore over the next 10 years as it expands its manufacturing facility to meet surging demand for memory chips amid the artificial-intelligence boom.

The Boise, Idaho-based chip giant on Tuesday said it broke ground on an advanced wafer fabrication facility located within the company's existing NAND manufacturing complex in Singapore. The plant represents a planned investment of 31 billion Singapore dollars, equivalent to US$24.41 billion, over the next decade, with wafer output scheduled to begin in the second half of 2028, it said in a statement.

Global Markets Mixed as Japanese Yen Eases After Rally

Investors remained on alert for any signs of possible yen intervention even as the currency eased back from Monday's sharp gains and the dollar recovered. Gold and silver remained close to the fresh highs reached at the start of the week, boosted by continued demand for safe-havens. President Trump said on Saturday he would put 100% tariffs on Canada if Prime Minister Mark Carney struck a trade deal with China and on Monday he said the U.S. will increase tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25% as it hadn't moved quickly enough to implement last year's trade pact. In a sign of shifting alliances as a result of Trump's tariffs, India and the European Union said Tuesday they reached a free-trade agreement.

Elsewhere, U.S. natural gas futures eased a touch after big gains due to the weekend's winter storm across much of the U.S. Investors also looked ahead to Wednesday's rate decision from the Federal Reserve and accompanying comments from chair Jerome Powell.

A Year After the DeepSeek Crash, Markets Face a New Chinese AI Threat

It's a year on from the "DeepSeek moment" that sparked a $1 trillion market panic.

The artificial-intelligence trade has proved resilient since then because a stream of more capable models continues to justify vast spending by U.S. companies. But Chinese AI models are threatening to capture more of the market in 2026, making it harder for U.S. leaders such as Alphabet's Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic to cash in.

Trump Administration Proposes Keeping Steady the Rates Medicare Pays Insurers

The Trump administration is proposing roughly flat rates for Medicare insurers next year, an update that falls well short of Wall Street expectations.

Payments to the plans would increase by an estimated .09% on average in 2027, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposed Monday.

Deep Freeze Sends U.S. Natural-Gas Prices Soaring

U.S. natural-gas futures topped $7 for the first time since 2022 as a massive winter storm swept across the country, driving up heating demand and threatening supply.

Source: morningstar

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King Ten

Energy

Remarks of Officials

Commodity

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Economic

The European Union’s competition chief has issued a sharp warning against becoming overly dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States as the bloc works to secure its energy future.

"We know that we cannot rely on Russian gas, and that we should pay attention not to rely too much on American gas," Teresa Ribera said in a radio interview on Tuesday.

This cautionary stance comes as Europe rapidly pivots away from its former primary supplier, Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine.

The Scale of the Shift to US Energy

To replace lost volumes of Russian gas, European nations have increasingly turned to US LNG. This shift is solidified by a major trade agreement with Washington, which includes a commitment to purchase $750 billion in American energy by 2028.

The momentum is significant. A recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) projected that if current supply deals are fulfilled and gas demand reduction efforts lag, the US could account for as much as 80% of Europe's gas imports by 2030. This would be a substantial increase from a projected 57% in 2025.

Even as the EU diversifies, Russia remains a key player, currently providing about 15% of the bloc's LNG supplies and standing as its second-largest provider after the United States.

Concerns Over a New Dependency

Top officials are openly cautioning that trading one dependency for another is not a sustainable long-term strategy.

"One of the reasons why we need to produce much more of our own energy is that it is not good to be reliant on any country in the world fundamentally for our energy supply," EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen told reporters. He added, "we need to be very careful that now we're moving out of Russian energy, that we're not replacing that dependency with other dependencies."

These concerns are amplified by geopolitical uncertainties. Past actions by former US President Donald Trump, including his interest in Greenland's mining rights and threats of tariffs against European nations, serve as a reminder of the political risks associated with over-reliance on a single partner.

Europe's Broader Energy Strategy

The EU's overarching goal remains a complete phaseout of Russian gas. To achieve true energy security, the bloc is focused on a two-pronged approach: seeking a diverse range of alternative suppliers while simultaneously accelerating its own transition to renewable energy.

This strategy is designed not only to secure its energy supply chain but also to meet the continent's ambitious climate target of achieving zero emissions by 2050.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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