Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?

Forex

Summary:

Forex markets are currently navigating a landscape of uncertainty, as mixed currency performance contributes to a lack of clear direction.

Forex markets are currently navigating a landscape of uncertainty, as mixed currency performance contributes to a lack of clear direction. Dollar has experienced a decline in Asian session, but still hovers within familiar boundaries against other major currencies. Meanwhile, Euro has managed to strengthen against the greenback but appears less robust in other pairs.

Yen, on the other hand, has emerged as a strong contender for the day, recouping some of its yesterday's pullback. In addition, Sterling has found firmer footing after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee can concentrate on inflation while the Financial Policy Committee maintains financial stability. Interestingly, Australian Dollar has managed to hold its ground despite disappointing retail sales data.

Looking ahead, the market may experience subdued trading due to a relatively light economic calendar. However, the upcoming release of US consumer confidence data could introduce an element of volatility, as traders and investors alike look for potential opportunities in the midst of uncertainty.

Technically, GBP/USD could now be eyeing 1.2342 temporary top with this week's rebound. Break there will resume the near term rally to 1.2445/6 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.2759 fibonacci level. Let's see if the Pound has enough buying to back the breakout. Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?_1

Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?_1

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.15%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.37%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.73%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0220 at 0.317. Overnight DOW rose 0.60%. S&P 500 rose 0.16%. NASDAQ dropped -0.47%. 10-year yield rose 0.148 to 3.528.

Fed Jefferson on balancing inflation and economic stability

Fed Philip Jefferson stated yesterday that the current inflation rate is too high, emphasizing the FOMC's goal to reduce it to 2% as quickly as possible. Speaking at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia, he acknowledged that the process may take some time due to persistent inflation components such as services excluding housing.

Jefferson said, "I would like to say that inflation will return to 2% soon, but we have to do it in a way that does not damage the economy any more than is necessary. That's what we are trying to do." Fed is grappling with the challenge of ensuring price stability amid high inflation while also maintaining financial stability in the wake of the second-largest bank failure in US history.

In his speech, Jefferson also noted that although inflation has begun to decline, it remains unclear whether this decrease is due to higher interest rates, easing pandemic-induced supply strains, or falling energy prices.

He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of the Fed's tightening measures, saying, "Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with long, variable, and highly uncertain lags, and we are still learning about the full effect of our tightening thus far."

Australia retail sales turnover up 0.2% mom in Feb, appeared to have levelled out

Australia retail sales turnover rose 0.2% mom to AUD 35.14B in February, matched expectations. Through the year, retail sales rose 6.4% yoy.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said retail sales rose modestly in February and appear to have levelled out after a period of increased volatility over November, December and January.

"On average, retail spending has been flat through the end of 2022 and to begin the new year."

Retail turnover rose modestly across most of the states and territories, with rises at 1.0% or less. Queensland recorded the only fall in turnover, down -0.4%.

Looking ahead

BOE will release quarterly bulletin. Later in the day, US will publish goods trade balance, housing index and consumer confidence.

Source: ActionForex.Com

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Comments

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Commodity

Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets.

Early-year enthusiasm for copper as a proxy for China's re-opening from stringent lockdown has succumbed to the contagious fear spreading from the banking sector to other risk asset classes.

The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit.

Copper, currently trading in London around $8,900 per tonne, could surpass its previous March 2022 price peak of $10,845 and hit $12,000 this year, according to Kostas Bintas, co-head of metals at trade house Trafigura.

Goldman Sachs is also expecting higher prices, arguing that the pace of global inventory draws could reduce visible stocks to an all-time low of 125,000 tonnes by the end of the second quarter.

Fund managers, however, are having none of it. Right now macro fear is overwhelming the micro picture.

Sell Out

The CFTC Commitments of Traders reports are now fully up to date after the delays caused by the February cyber incident at ION Cleared Derivatives.

They show fund managers turning net short of the CME copper contract in early March for the first time since October last year.

The collective bear call flexed out to 9,837 contracts in the middle of the month before being trimmed back to 6,967 contracts as of March 21.

Driving that shift in positioning has been a sharp reduction in outright long positions, which have slumped from a January high of 78,429 contracts to a current 37,173. Short positions have built by only a relatively modest 6,823 contracts to 40,140 over the same time-frame.

The early-year bullish exuberance has clearly evaporated.

The LME's positioning reports paint the same picture. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. By the middle of March it had shrunk back to 13,978 contracts.

If there are any copper bulls in the investor community, they are currently lurking in the "other financial" category of the LME's reports, where positioning has gone from neutral at the start of January to a net long 7,819 contracts.

No Buy-In

The speed of the positioning reversal in copper suggests short-term players are currently in the ascendant, trading copper against the dollar and gold, which has rallied strongly as a safe-haven bet.

Copper "remains dominated by the fx (foreign exchange) with HFT (high frequency traders) leaving a heavy footprint", according to a Monday market update from LME broker Marex.

Conspicuous by its absence is any significant investor buy-in to the longer-term bull narrative in copper as an enabler of the energy transition.

"Although under-appreciated in the market today, green demand is here and already impacting fundamentals," according to Goldman Sachs. ("Commodity Views," March 23, 2023)

The bank expects clean energy demand for copper to rise by 30% year-on-year to 2.6 million tonnes in 2023, powered by an expanding electric vehicle sector and investment in solar energy.

Funds don't appear to have heard the message.

Outright long positions on both London and U.S. exchanges are small relative to 2020, when the copper price was rallying as first China and then the rest of the world emerged from the initial round of COVID lockdown.

China Recovery (Again)

Fast forward three years and China is again coming out of lockdown after the lifting of zero-COVID restrictions.

It's been a stop-start recovery because it's coincided with the national Lunar New Year holiday period, a seasonal low point for China's manufacturing sector.

China's net imports of refined copper were down by 13% year-on-year over the first two months of 2023. Inventory registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) and its international branch, the International Energy Exchange (INE), mushroomed by 235,000 tonnes to 320,000 tonnes during January and February.

However, INE stocks have since stopped rising and ShFE inventory has fallen by 91,300 tonnes since the start of March.

Headline LME stocks are just 41,875 tonnes, excluding metal awaiting load-out. CME stocks last Thursday hit a nine-year low of 14,627 tons.

Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

Funds bought into that bull narrative at the start of the year but have evidently switched focus to the dangers flowing from the banking crisis to Western metals demand.

Which, ironically, doesn't mean that copper's next major price move can't still be generated by China.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Forex

After the big sell-off at the end of last week, European markets started the week in a positive fashion as the banking sector angst of the last few days eased slightly.

Most sectors of the markets saw a modest rebound, helped by events on the other side of the Atlantic as reports emerged that Citizens Bank in the US had agreed on a deal to acquire Silicon Valley Bank's loans and deposits book.

US markets had a more mixed session with the S&P500 finishing higher for the 3rd day in a row, however, the Nasdaq found life slightly more difficult, finishing the session slightly lower, after US 2-year yields pushed back above 4%

This sharp rebound in 2-year yields on both sides of the Atlantic, appears to be a decent corrective to last week's sharp plunge, as markets look to reprice some of the more dire recession scenarios that were being priced at the end of last week.

The rebound in yields also suggested that a calmer tone was starting to prevail in the short term, even as sentiment seems likely to remain on the cautious side over the next few days.

This caution was reflected in the extent of yesterday's rebound in bank stocks given that none of the gains seen yesterday came close to reversing the losses seen from last Friday.

Therein lies the rub, that for all of yesterday's quieter session, the fact remains that markets are still one negative headline away from another sharp tumble.

This week's price action is also likely to be susceptible to month and quarter-end flows, which may well assign a misleading skew when it comes to what the market may look to do next.

One thing that was notable yesterday was that a number of ECB policymakers, while still making the case that inflation was still too high, started to temper their remarks with nods to concerns about financial stability, with Spain's De Cos and Portugal's Centeno making reference to these issues when making future policy decisions.

This more nuanced approach was welcomed in contrast to ECB President Lagarde's rather tone-deaf comments last week that there was no trade-off between financial stability and price stability.

Yesterday's more positive tone looks set to carry into today's European market open with a modestly higher open.

The pound could well be in focus today with Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey set to brief MPs later this morning on the Silicon Valley Bank situation with respect to its UK operations. Yesterday, Bailey made a number of comments with respect to the central bank's inflation outlook, indicating that further rate hikes may well be limited. His comments to the London School of Economics also reiterated the remarks he made last week, post rate decision, that the bank expected headline inflation to fall sharply in H2.

EUR/USD – still feels toppy anywhere above the 1.0900 area after last week' s failure at 1.0930. Feels rangebound with support at the 50-day SMA at 1.0730. Below 1.0730 opens up the 1.0520 level.

GBP/USD – edging above the 1.2300 area again but needs to push through the previous highs at 1.2345 to kick on towards the previous peaks at 1.2445. The pound continues to feel vulnerable to slipping back towards the 1.2170 area while below the highs of last week. A move below the support at the 1.2170 area, opens up the potential for a move towards 1.2020.

EUR/GBP – slipped back to the support at 0.8770/80 area. A break below here opens up the risk of a move towards strong trend line support at 0.8720, from the lows last August. On the upside we have trend line resistance at the 0.8870/80 area.

USD/JPY – feels like we may have put in a short-term base after last week's failure below the 130.00 area. We need to see a move through the 132.00 area to signal a deeper move towards 133.20.

Source: CMC

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

Bullish bitcoin has been a surprise winner of the banking blowout. Yet investors aiming to ramp up their bets face an ominous obstacle: a lack of liquidity that could trigger wild price swings.

The price of the No.1 cryptocurrency has jumped 40% to around $27,700 since March 10, when the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) careered into mainstream markets.

On the flip side, though, its liquidity is drying up.

Bitcoin's market depth indicates the asset is at its lowest level of liquidity in 10 months, even lower than in the aftermath of the FTX collapse in November, according to data provider Kaiko. The market depth for the two leading trading pairs - bitcoin-dollar and bitcoin-tether - stands at 5,600 bitcoin, the equivalent of about $155 million, Kaiko said.

"As a market maker we try to provide liquidity where we can but we're facing a difficult situation," said Kevin de Patoul, CEO of Keyrock. "There is a big network effect here. In the short term at least, liquidity will remain a challenge."

Slippage, a liquidity measure describing how much prices change between the placement and execution of a trade, has also increased. Slippage for buying bitcoin with U.S. dollars on the Coinbase exchange is 2.5 times higher than it was at the start of March, said Conor Ryder, research analyst at Kaiko.

The slippage for a simulated $100,000 sell order has doubled in the past month, meaning the average price you get for each bitcoin is worse than a month ago, Kaiko said.

The network effect de Patoul referred to was the collapses of Silvergate Capital and Signature Bank, whose networks had long been used by market makers - which expand liquidity by rapidly buying and selling tokens - to transact with exchanges.

Lower liquidity typically translates to more volatile markets, especially in crypto. Kaiko's Ryder said this was possibly one factor behind bitcoin's leap this month.

CryptoCompare's Bitcoin Volatility Index spiked to 96 last week, way higher than the range of 52 to 65 it saw last month as the cryptocurrency held its footing despite broader market turmoil. The index is currently hovering around 68.

The alameda factor

Further crimping liquidity, Binance - the world's most liquid crypto exchange - ended zero-fee trading for nearly all its bitcoin trading pairs last week, hitting market makers' ability to charge higher fees for executing trades on the platform.

Liquidity for the bitcoin-tether pair on Binance has dropped 70% since the announcement, while trading volumes have fallen 90%, according to Kaiko data.

The vanishing liquidity can be traced back to the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX exchange and hedge fund Alameda Research. Alameda was one of the biggest liquidity providers in the crypto industry, and its bankruptcy left a void that has been exacerbated by the banking sector turmoil of 2023.

While most market participants expect new contenders to gradually emerge to perform the network functions of Silvergate and Signature, they say complete replacements are unlikely to pop up overnight.

Until then, "liquidity is probably going to get worse and worse", said Joseph Edwards, investment adviser at Enigma Securities.

Furthermore, it's not just market-maker trouble that's crunching crypto liquidity; Despite bitcoin's recent rally following a lengthy downturn, many investors are still trading cautiously in the wake of the banking crises and rising interest rates, some specialists say.

"Even if some players haven't left the place, they are on the sidelines right now because of what's happening with banking turmoil," Edwards said.

Source: The Economic Times

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Thomas

Commodity

China's crude oil imports will average 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, matching the previous record high from 2020, according to the think tank of the country's leading energy group.

Imports will rise 6.2% from last year to 540 million tonnes, while refinery processing will gain 7.8% to 733 million tonnes, equivalent to 14.66 million bpd, China National Petroleum Corporation's Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual industry outlook released on Monday.

The forecasts are largely in line with those of private analysts, who have tipped a rebound in China's fuel consumption as the world's second-largest economy reopens after ending its strict zero-COVID policy late last year.

The ETRI forecast is for crude oil imports to rise by 630,000 bpd in 2023, which is below the 900,000 bpd expected by the International Energy Agency, but above estimates from some analysts, such as Wood Mackenzie and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Forecasts are useful insofar as they provide insight into the expectations of participants in the market, but it's also useful to look at some of the risks around the estimates.

What is interesting with the ETRI forecasts is that they would seem to show that China's refiners are still expecting to add crude oil to stockpiles over 2023.

Assuming domestic oil production remains relatively steady over 2023 at the 4.23 million bpd achieved in the first two months of the year, it implies that a total of 15.03 million bpd will be available to refiners from imports and local output.

This is some 370,000 bpd more than the ETRI forecast for refinery throughput of 14.66 million bpd.

If these sort of volumes are added to inventories in 2023, it would be lower than the 740,000 bpd added to storage tanks in 2022.

China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output.

New Refineries

It's likely that some of the oil heading for storage will go to build working inventories for new plants expected to be commissioned this year.

Two new refineries - PetroChina's Guangdong Petrochemical and Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical with a combined capacity of 520,000 bpd - are expected to enter commercial operation in the coming months, industry sources said last month.

A third new plant, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 400,000 bpd project, may also begin crude imports for possible test runs by the end of the year, a company source told Reuters.

Flows in, or indeed out of, either commercial or strategic reserves are the biggest X-factor for China's crude oil imports.

The assumption of modest inventory builds as part of the commissioning of new refining units is a safe choice, but it's worth noting that China's refiners and the authorities in Beijing tend to use stockpiles to smooth out prices, even if they don't talk about this in public.

Imports could rise by more than expected if crude oil prices drop and remain low, a situation that is possible if the world economy goes into recession, or a banking crisis ensues after the collapse of two U.S. lenders and the forced sale of Credit Suisse.

Conversely, if global oil demand growth is robust and prices head higher, Chinese refiners may choose to reduce imports and dip into their reserves.

Another factor that isn't subject to market imperatives is the level of fuel exports, which is set by the government through the issuing of permits.

Exports of refined products ramped up in recent months as Beijing sought quick economic stimulus and allowed refiners to take advantage of strong margins in Asia for fuels, especially diesel.

But there is no guarantee this policy will persist over the whole of 2023, and if domestic demand does rebound, then it's likely fuel exports will be curbed.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

FastBull Featured

Daily News

【Quick Facts】

1. Bailey: Inflation control should be considered ahead of banking worries.

2. First Citizens Bank's acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank is settled.

3. The Hungarian parliament approved Finland's accession to NATO.

4. SNB has taken emergency liquidity.

5. Interest rate swaps show that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in May by more than fifty percent.

【News Details】

1. Bailey: Inflation control should be considered ahead of banking worries.

As the successive "collapses" of banks such as SVB and Credit Suisse have sparked market concerns, some investors believe that central banks should not separate monetary policy from financial stability at a time when worries that banking woes could lead to a widespread financial crisis have intensified.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey countered this view in a speech at the London School of Economics on Monday. He said rate-setters will focus on fighting inflation and should not be unduly influenced by concerns about the health of the global banking system. Britain's banks are resilient and able to support the economy.

2. First Citizens Bank's acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank is settled.

First Citizens Bank, a regional U.S. bank, said Monday it acquired the assets of the previously failed Silicon Valley Bank. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has been given the right to increase the bank's equity worth up to $500 million, thereby acquiring all of Silicon Valley Bank's loans and deposits. Including $110 billion in assets, $56 billion in deposits and $72 billion in loans, with expansion in California. the FDIC retained about $90 billion in securities pending disposition.

The First Citizens deal boosted the shares of other smaller regional banks, including First Republic Bank, which has been the one that has kept investors most on their toes, whose shares jumped about 12 percent on Monday. And it eased fears of systemic stress in the banking sector.

3. The Hungarian parliament approved Finland's accession to NATO.

Hungary's parliament approved a bill on Monday to allow Finland to join NATO. Hungary's ruling party, the Federation of Young Democrats (Fidesz), has reportedly been dragging its feet on the issue for months. Sweden's bill to apply for NATO membership is still lingering in the Hungarian parliament. Finland and Sweden requested NATO membership last year in response to Russia's special military operation against Ukraine, but the process has been blocked by Turkey and Hungary.

4. SNB has taken emergency liquidity.

Data show that the SNB's demand deposits rose sharply last week, with commercial banks' demand deposits with the SNB jumping to 567 billion Swiss francs ($619 billion) from 515 billion a week earlier. 52 billion Swiss francs was the second highest increase on record, second only to the 52.4 billion Swiss francs in August 2011, when the SNB sold a large number of Swiss francs to ease the pressure on the safe-haven currency The Swiss franc was under pressure. This suggests that Credit Suisse and UBS may have taken on significant emergency liquidity to ensure the completion of the merger.

5. Interest rate swaps show that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in May by more than fifty percent.

Interest rates on swap contracts rose to about 4.96% on Monday, about 13 bps higher than the current federal funds rate. This suggests that the Fed is more likely to raise rates by 25 bps at its May meeting than to leave them unchanged. The likelihood of a rate hike is more than 50%.

【Focus of the Day】

UTC+8 16:00 ECB Governing Council member Muller to speak

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. Monthly Wholesale Inventories Preliminary Rate (Feb)

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Mar)

UTC+8 04:30 U.S. API Data

UTC+8 [TBD] U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on Silicon Valley Bank incident, Fed Governor Barr will attend

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Justin

Bond

Historically, higher-rated short-duration high-yield bonds have provided strong returns with defensive characteristics. Now, with yield curves inverted across North America, Europe and parts of Asia, investors no longer need to increase interest-rate risk (duration) to earn extra income.

Shorter Bonds Make for Lower Risk

Short-dated high-yield bonds are intrinsically less risky than longer-dated counterparts, as their shorter maturities leave them less exposed to both default- and interest-rate risk. Further, as these bonds currently trade below par (Display), their prices will likely rise as they approach maturity, generating capital gains.

Short Duration High Yield at One of the Most Attractive Points in Last 20 Years

Bloomberg Global High Yield Corporate 1-5 Year Index: Starting Annual Price and Yield

From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds_1

What’s more, by concentrating on the higher-quality segment of short-dated high yield, investors can create more defensive portfolios for a relatively small reduction in yield (Display).

High-Quality Short-Dated High-Yield Bonds Have Offered Attractive Yields

Average Yields in US Dollars Over Different Timescales (Percent)

From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds_2

Over the 20 years ending September 30, 2022, BB- and B-rated high-yield bonds between one and five years to maturity captured more than 80% of the broader High-yield market return, while experiencing approximately 50% of the average monthly drawdown. Consequently, they have provided better risk-adjusted returns than their longer-dated (five- to ten-year) high-yield counterparts. But they have really come into their own during periods of extreme market stress. At these times, higher-quality, short-duration high yield has exhibited much lower downside capture than both the global and US high-yield markets (Display).

Higher-Quality Short-Duration High Yield Captured Less Downside When Spreads Widened

Cumulative Return When US High-Yield Spreads Widened 50 Basis Points or More (Percent)

From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds_3

In our analysis, dynamically managed short-duration high-yield strategies that can allocate tactically to higher-rated assets, including investment-grade bonds, may achieve even more consistent performance. By varying the allocations to return-seeking and more defensive bonds as market conditions change, investors may have the opportunity both to capture higher returns in risk-on periods and to guard against downside risks in choppier markets.

Inverted Yield Curve Favors Shorter Bonds

Currently, owing to inverted yield curves, investors have a potentially highly attractive entry point for investing in short-duration high-yield bonds, as high-yield bonds with five or fewer years to maturity offer significantly higher yields than longer-dated counterparts (Display).

Shorter-Duration High-Yield Bonds Offer Higher Yields than Their Longer Counterparts

From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds_4

In an uncertain world, we think shorter-dated, higher-rated, high-yield strategies could be particularly well-suited to delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.