EU Holds Firm on Carbon Tax in New India Trade Deal

WTI Crude Oil Navigates Key Technical Levels Amid Supply Uncertainty

Bullish Setup Awaits Catalyst as Dip Buyers Emerge

Kazakhstan Production Resumption Threatens Price Support

Extreme Weather Creates Conflicting Supply Signals

Refinery Disruptions and Stock Drawdowns May Support Prices

Middle East Tensions Provide Underlying Price Support

Technical Analysis Points to Uptrend with Critical 200-Day Level

Daily March Crude Oil Futures

Source: fxempire

Canada is actively working to diversify its energy exports beyond the United States, with India emerging as a primary target for increased sales of oil, gas, and uranium. This strategic shift was highlighted by Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson during a conference in India on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Indian Energy Week conference in Goa, Hodgson described Canada's heavy reliance on the U.S. market as a "strategic blunder," signaling a clear opportunity to strengthen energy ties with India.

A New Focus on the Indian Market

Hodgson reiterated the government's ambition for Canada to become an "energy superpower," stating that this goal requires trading with major global energy consumers like India.

"If Canada wants to be an energy superpower, we need to be trading our energy and natural resources with one of the world's largest energy markets: India," he posted on the social media platform X.

The minister emphasized the significance of his visit, noting it marked Canada's first federal ministerial presence at India Energy Week and the first formal energy dialogue between the two nations in eight years.

He connected these diplomatic efforts to domestic infrastructure development, explaining that new projects at home will enable Canada to sell its products globally and forge "a new path for a stronger, more sovereign Canada."

Building Infrastructure for Global Reach

This pivot toward Asia is part of a broader strategy to establish new export routes. The move signals a clear intent to boost energy exports to Asia from Canada's West Coast, positioning India—a key driver of future global oil and gas demand—as a priority destination.

Hodgson confirmed that infrastructure is being developed to support this strategy. "We're now building pipelines to the West Coast. We have three pipelines built here, looking at building more," he stated at the forum.

This initiative follows a major energy and trade partnership Canada signed with China, reflecting a wider move to diversify its international partners.

What the Canada-India Partnership Entails

Although Canada launched its first LNG export project, LNG Canada, last year, it does not currently export liquefied natural gas to India. However, this is expected to change.

According to a draft joint statement on energy reviewed by Bloomberg News, the two countries are expected to formalize their relationship. The agreement will likely involve a pledge for:

• Increased Canadian exports of crude, LNG, and LPG to India.

• More Indian fuel exports to Canada.

This development marks a significant step in Canada's quest to reduce its dependency on the U.S. market and solidify its position as a global energy supplier.

Source: Bloomberg

Russia's central bank is grappling with conflicting signals on inflation from businesses and consumers ahead of its crucial interest rate decision on February 13. While a rate cut was widely expected this year to stimulate an economy that slowed to 1% growth, fresh price pressures are complicating the outlook.

Business and Household Inflation Expectations Diverge

Two key surveys, one of businesses and one of households, are painting a confusing picture for policymakers. These polls are critical gauges for the central bank as it charts its course on monetary policy.

Business Pessimism Hits a Post-2022 High

A recent poll of Russian businesses reveals that price expectations have surged to their highest level since the early months of the military action in Ukraine in 2022. Companies are now projecting a 2026 inflation rate of 9.3%, more than double the official government forecast of 4% to 5%.

Household Views Remain High but Stable

In contrast, household inflation expectations held steady at 13.7% in January, matching the December figure after rising in the previous two months. However, this highlights a significant gap with official data. The same poll showed that the public's perceived inflation rate is 14.5%, far above the official annual rate of 6.5%. This deep-seated mistrust of official statistics helps explain why Russia's central bank maintains one of the world's highest real interest rates.

The Policy Dilemma: To Cut or to Hold?

The recent spike in prices, driven by a government decision to raise the value-added tax (VAT) to 22% on January 1, has cast doubt on earlier declarations that inflation was defeated. This has left analysts divided on the bank's next move.

Andrei Melaschenko of Renaissance Capital noted that the acceleration in prices through December and early January makes holding the rate steady a more probable outcome. "The option of keeping the rate unchanged [is] more likely at the moment," he said.

This view challenges earlier market consensus. A Reuters poll from December showed analysts anticipated the central bank would lower its key rate from the current 16% to 15% in the first quarter of the year.

Balancing Short-Term Spikes and Long-Term Growth

The central bank has previously signaled that it views the inflation surge from the VAT hike as a one-off event with short-term effects. Officials have also pointed to the positive long-term impact on the government's budget balance.

However, some experts warn against an overly aggressive response. Analysts at BCS brokerage argued that keeping rates high to fight a temporary price shock could backfire. "An excessively strict response to short-term effects... could significantly intensify the slowdown in the economy in the medium term," they stated.

Following the upcoming meeting, the bank's next rate-setting decision is scheduled for March 20.

Source: cnbc

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has declared that his government will not be forced to pick a side between the United States and China, emphasizing a dual approach of maintaining close ties with Washington while actively engaging with Beijing. His comments signal a key foreign policy direction ahead of his planned visit to China.

Starmer confirmed that the UK will preserve its strong security, business, and defense relationship with the U.S. However, he argued that "sticking your head in the sand and ignoring China" is not a viable strategy.

A Push for Economic Ties with Beijing

The Prime Minister's planned state visit to China—the first by a UK leader in eight years—is framed as a move to unlock major economic benefits. Starmer stated the trip could create "significant opportunities" for British companies and is expected to include a delegation of UK business leaders for stops in Shanghai and Beijing.

Addressing potential security concerns, Starmer insisted that building a relationship with China "does not mean compromising on national security – quite the opposite."

This diplomatic outreach follows the UK government's recent and controversial approval for China to establish a new embassy in London. The decision proceeded despite opposition concerns that the facility could be used for espionage activities against the United Kingdom.

Navigating US Trade Friction

Starmer’s balanced approach comes amid a backdrop of global trade tensions, particularly involving the United States under President Trump. The Prime Minister's visit to China could risk friction with Washington, which has previously threatened allies over their economic ties with Beijing.

Trump's Tariff Threats on Allies

President Trump has shown a willingness to use tariffs to enforce his foreign and economic policy goals. In one instance, he threatened to impose tariffs on allied nations that opposed the U.S. acquisition of Greenland, stating, "we need Greenland for national security." While tensions later subsided after Trump clarified he would seek negotiations rather than use force, the episode highlighted his transactional approach.

More directly, Trump threatened Canada with a 100% tariff after the country reached a "strategic partnership" trade deal with the Chinese government. The threat emerged after Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech in Davos was perceived as critical of the U.S. world order.

The Canada-China agreement included several key tariff reductions:

• China would lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15%.

• Canada would cut taxes on Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1%.

Pressure on South Korea

The U.S. has also applied economic pressure on other key partners. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%, targeting products like automobiles, lumber, and pharmaceuticals. He accused South Korea of failing to honor a trade deal struck the previous year.

The announcement caused a sharp reaction in South Korea's stock market, particularly affecting carmakers. In response, Seoul urged Trump to reaffirm his commitment to their trade agreement, under which President Lee Jae Myung had agreed last July for South Korea to invest $350 billion in the United States.