Bitcoin Stagnates, Monero Slumps After Binance Delisting

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

In the ever-evolving landscape of digital currencies, the cryptocurrency market is once again abuzz with activity, albeit with mixed sentiments prevailing among investors and enthusiasts.

Bitcoin, the pioneer of cryptocurrencies, seems to have found itself in a state of inertia, while Monero faces the repercussions of a significant setback.

Bitcoin’s Lackluster Performance:

Bitcoin, often hailed as the bellwether of the cryptocurrency market, has been struggling to break free from its $43,000 stronghold. Despite sporadic attempts to rally beyond this threshold, the digital asset has largely remained tethered to this price level, much to the frustration of traders and analysts alike.

Monero’s Dilemma: Binance Delisting Impact

In a significant development, Binance’s recent announcement of the delisting of the privacy-centric token Monero (XMR) sent shockwaves through the crypto community. As anticipated, the value of XMR plummeted by double digits upon the release of this news. Over the week, XMR has experienced a decline of over 20%, bringing its value to just above $120.

The impact of XMR’s delisting highlights the susceptibility of altcoins to major exchange decisions. Investors and enthusiasts will keenly observe how Monero navigates this turbulence and whether it can recover from the recent setback.

Altcoin Performance Snapshot

Among the larger-cap altcoins, Ethereum (ETH) stands out as one of the best performers, with gains of just under 2%. Other notable altcoins such as BNB, XRP, AVAX, DOGE, TRX, DOT, and MATIC also show modest gains. However, LINK and ADA have experienced the most significant declines, with losses of 4% and 3%, respectively. SOL and TON follow with minor losses, adding further diversity to the altcoin market dynamics.

Analyzing the Road Ahead

As the cryptocurrency market grapples with these diverse movements, investors and enthusiasts are left contemplating the road ahead. The persistent stagnation of Bitcoin, juxtaposed with the dynamic performances of altcoins, underscores the complexity of the crypto landscape.

Market observers will be closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to break free from its $43,000 constraints and whether the altcoins can sustain or reverse their recent trends. Additionally, the aftermath of XMR’s delisting from Binance serves as a poignant reminder of the impact that regulatory decisions and exchange actions can have on individual cryptocurrencies.

Recent weeks have witnessed Bitcoin’s price movements resembling a slow-motion reel, devoid of the volatility that once characterized its meteoric rise. Even its brief forays to $43,750 proved futile, met with swift rejections that underscored the prevailing market sentiment.

The weekend brought little respite, with Bitcoin’s price exhibiting minimal fluctuations, save for a fleeting $1,000 surge followed by a prompt retracement. As it stands, the flagship cryptocurrency teeters just above the $43,000 mark, its market capitalization hovering slightly above $845 billion, maintaining a dominance of 51.2% over the altcoin arena.

Monero’s Melancholy Plunge：

In a twist of fate for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, Monero (XMR) found itself at the center of attention following Binance’s announcement of its impending delisting. The news sent shockwaves through the market, triggering a precipitous decline in Monero’s value, plunging it into double-digit losses within a span of hours.

With Binance’s decision reverberating across the cryptocurrency sphere, Monero’s weekly performance paints a somber picture, with losses exceeding 20% as it struggles to hold ground above the $120 mark. The delisting announcement serves as a stark reminder of the regulatory uncertainties and market dynamics that continue to shape the fate of digital assets.

Altcoins Amidst the Turmoil:

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, altcoins navigate choppy waters, with Ethereum emerging as a standout performer, boasting a modest 2% gain and hovering close to the $2,400 mark. However, not all altcoins bask in the glow of green candles, as evidenced by LINK and ADA, which have incurred losses of 4% and 3% respectively.

Meanwhile, a myriad of altcoins including BNB, XRP, AVAX, DOGE, TRX, DOT, and MATIC tread cautiously, with marginal gains punctuated by sporadic losses. Solana (SOL) and TON join the ranks of minor losers, reflecting the broader market sentiment characterized by a delicate balance between optimism and apprehension.

Source：The Currency Analytics

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

India is expected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth between 2023 and 2030, narrowly taking the lead from top importer China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The world's third-largest oil importer and consumer is on track to post an oil demand increase of almost 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2023 and 2030, accounting for more than one-third of the projected 3.2 million bpd of global increases in the period, the IEA said in a report released at the India Energy Week in Goa.

The agency forecast India's demand would reach 6.6 million bpd in 2030, up from 5.5 million bpd in 2023.

"India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook," it added.

The single largest basis of India's oil consumption will be diesel fuel, accounting for almost half of the rise in the nation's demand and more than one-sixth of total global oil demand growth through to 2030, the IEA said.

Jet fuel is poised to grow 5.9% annually on average but this will be from a low base compared with other countries, it added.

"In the case of India, compared with China or other parts of the world, the Indian economy still continues to need more transport fuels so we expect India will continue to grow in transportation fuels. So that's something different from countries like China," Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director of energy markets and security, said on the sidelines of the conference.

Still, the electrification of India's vehicle fleet will lead to a more muted 0.7% annual growth average through 2030 for gasoline, the IEA said. New electric vehicles and energy efficiency improvements in India will avoid 480,000 bpd of extra oil demand from now to 2030, it added.

To meet this demand, India is expected to add 1 million bpd of new refining capacity over the seven-year period and this will increase its crude imports further to 5.8 million bpd by 2030, the IEA said.

"India is moving to the right path in terms of adding large additional refining capacities," Prasad Panicker, chairman of Indian refiner Nayara Energy said at the conference.

He added that Indian gasoline demand will not peak for "at least the next 20-25 years".

G Krishnakumar, the chairman of state run refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp, said that petrochemical demand for the company will also be a factor in India's oil consumption increase, as demand growth for petrochemicals is "directly proportional to the gross domestic product of the country."

An executive from India's top refiner Indian Oil Corp said on Tuesday at the conference that growth in all oil product sales are expected to rise in the fiscal year to March 2025.

The IEA report estimated India's oil inventories were at 243 million barrels, with 26 million barrels held at strategic petroleum reserves sites while the rest are industry stocks.

"This equates to 66 days of net imports, based on IEA methodology. Indian oil import requirements will rise rapidly toward 2030 and beyond," the IEA said in the report.

Source：zawya

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FastBull Featured

Remarks of Officials

In a speech on February 7, local time, Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins said that the unexpected strength of recent GDP and labor market data reflects the continued resilience of demand and underscores the fact that the expected slowdown in economic activity may take some time.

Consumer spending is expected to remain high in the near term, mainly due to the strength of the labor market, with incomes supporting its consumption. It also suggests that the economy will remain strong in the near term and that the labor market is trending towards healthy levels. These developments imply that while the risk of inflation remaining persistently above the 2% target remains, it has diminished.

There is still a need to see more evidence of the sustainability of the disinflationary process before we start cutting rates. The latest economic data suggests that the journey towards the inflation target will remain rocky and we should not overreact to individual data. More time is needed to determine whether the current economic trend will expand and continue.

The Fed doesn't need to wait for inflation to reach 2% to start cutting rates; it's too late. Instead, confidence in the inflation trajectory is more important.

Speech of Collins

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Cohen

Economic

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada released its summary of deliberations for its Jan. 24 rate decision, which shows members of the bank agreed that the focus will now shift on how much longer rates will stay at five per cent. However, the summary said it remains “difficult to foresee” the appropriate time to begin cutting.

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, said the struggle to predict when rate cuts will come is the part of the deliberations that stuck out most.

“It (the Bank of Canada) sees risks on both sides of its inflation outlook where we're seeing that underlying inflation is still remaining elevated and there's a risk that it could remain sticky going forward. That would mean potentially that rates would need to stay high for longer,” he told BNN Bloomberg in a television interview Wednesday.

“At the same time, those high interest rates are weighing on consumers as they continue to renew their mortgages and we're seeing that consumption per capita has been declining for the past several quarters.”

Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the deliberations show the central bank is likely done with further hikes. He added that since the Jan. 24 meeting, Macklem made two things clear.

“One, the Bank of Canada is no longer thinking of raising rates further, the next move in rates almost certainly is a reduction, but at the same time don't expect that reduction to occur anytime soon,” Guatieri told BNN Bloomberg in a television interview Wednesday.

“We know the Bank of Canada did remove its so-called tightening bias at that meeting simply because the economy is so weak right now.”

Underlying numbers still high

Guatieri said the Bank of Canada needs assurances that it is on track to its two per cent inflation target before it can think about cuts, but underlying inflation of around four per cent remains a concern.

“Rents are going up at a very fast-paced eight to nine per cent range, (there’s) not a whole lot the bank can do about that, as we've heard from the governor,” he said.

“Wages are also going up four to five per cent. You couple that with declining price productivity, that means unit labour costs are going up at about a six per cent rate in the past year. That's about three times faster than what would be consistent with a two per cent inflation target.”

Housing risks

Bartlett said if interest rates are cut too soon, the housing market could rebound and further stoke the underlying inflation numbers.

“The bank really needs to see that as long as shelter inflation is high that other sectors, other components of inflation that are more domestically driven need to start coming down well below what's typically consistent with this two per cent target to offset the strength of shelter inflation,” he said.

“If home prices rebound and mortgage interest cost remains high, that could mean that shelter component just continues to drive underlying inflation higher.”

Guatieri said if the federal government is going to address housing costs, it will need big investments and sacrifices in other areas.

“We do need to pump more and more resources into building homes that does leave less money and resources available to invest in other perhaps more productive endeavors that would ultimately pay off,” he said.

Economists largely believe interest rate cuts could come as soon as April, with the most likely scenario coming sometime around June.

Source：Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Fed's Collins sees rate cuts coming later this year, looking for more confidence.

2. Fed's Kugler says rate cuts may be appropriate at some point.

3. U.S. Senate rejects a bipartisan border deal, including aid to Ukraine.

4. Fed's Barkin urges patience on interest rate cuts.

[News Details]

Fed's Collins sees rate cuts coming later this year, looking for more confidence

The unexpected strength in recent GDP and labor market data exemplifies the on-going resilience of demand, and highlights that the anticipated slowdown in activity may take some time, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday. The path the economy takes toward the Fed's mandated goals may continue to be bumpy and uneven, and we should not overreact to individual data points.

I want to see evidence of wages evolving in a way that is ultimately consistent with price stability, Collins said. Expecting all indicators to be well aligned is too high a bar, but seeing sustained and broadening signs of progress should provide the necessary confidence I would need to begin a methodical adjustment to our policy stance.

The Fed will not need to hit the 2% inflation target dead on to start lowering rates. That's waiting too long. Confidence in the trajectory of inflation is more important.

For the moment, the policy remains well positioned, as we carefully assess the evolving data and outlook. As we gain more confidence in the economy achieving the (Federal Open Market) Committee's goals, and consistent with the last set of projections, I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year, Collins said. But she said she will need to see more evidence inflation is moving down to the 2% target before supporting an easing in interest rates.

Fed's Kugler says rate cuts may be appropriate at some point

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivered her first public speech yesterday since taking office last September. She said inflation will continue to decline, with the help of slowing wage growth and falling rents. More data is needed to determine this, though.

Cooling inflation and labor markets may make rate cuts appropriate at some point. However, if the decline in inflation stalls, it may be necessary to keep rates at current levels for longer to ensure that the Fed is making progress toward its dual mandate.

U.S. Senate rejects a bipartisan border deal, including aid to Ukraine

By a vote of 49-50, the U.S. Senate failed to approve a $118 billion bipartisan border security deal. The bill includes aid to Ukraine and will increase security along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Republicans did not support the bill, arguing that it did not contain enough measures to strengthen the security at the U.S. southern border.

The bipartisan deal was worked out by both the U.S. Senate and the White House. It calls for $20.23 billion for border protection, $60.6 billion for aid to Ukraine, $14.1 billion for aid to Israel, and $4.83 billion for aid to partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

Fed's Barkin urges patience on interest rate cuts

The U.S. economy may be heading for a soft landing, Richmond Fed President Barkin said in a speech on Wednesday. But the deceleration in inflation could stagnate or even reverse before inflation approaches the 2% target.

Barkin hopes to see slower inflation in rental and service prices, both of which have been resilient. There are several other areas that could bring stronger inflationary pressures. A tight labor market is keeping wages up. The low supply of housing could create more pressure on rents and house prices. Globalization and geopolitics could put pressure on the price of goods. Manufacturers and price setters could continue to raise prices.

Nonetheless, Barkin said, "I do think we're on the back end of that cycle," no longer taking outsized price increases.

Job gains, which were concentrated in sectors such as health care, government, and leisure and hospitality, have expanded to other sectors in January. An expansion of job gains would be a positive sign for the economy.

If the recent positive momentum in inflation data continues, a rate cut would be appropriate. It makes sense to be patient on the timing of interest-rate cuts in 2024.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 19:30 ECB Governing Council Member Wunsch Speaks

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

UTC+8 21:30 Richmond Fed President Barkin Gives An Interview with Bloomberg

UTC+8 22:00 Bank of England MPC Member Dhingra Speaks

UTC+8 22:15 Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Elderson Speaks

UTC+8 23:00 Bank of England MPC Member Mann Speaks on Inflation

UTC+8 23:30 ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks at Brookings Institution

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King Ten

ING

Economic

Headline CPI fell to 14 year low

China's January CPI inflation came in at -0.8% YoY, which is the lowest level since September 2009, and marked the fourth consecutive month of negative headline inflation.

By category, the primary drag on inflation continued to be food prices, which fell by 5.9% YoY, the lowest level on record. As expected, pork prices (-17.3% YoY) continued to be a major drag on inflation, while fresh vegetables (-12.7% YoY) and fruit (-9.1% YoY) also contributed to the drag. Food inflation has been in negative territory for 7 consecutive months. However, it is worth noting that this month's data may look particularly poor due to the holiday effect from last year's Lunar New Year occurring in January, while this year's is set for February. Household demand for food products (especially pork) for the holiday feast results in food prices surging around the holiday period.

However, non-food inflation also came in somewhat softer than expectations at 0.4% YoY. The biggest drag in non-food inflation remains in transportation & communication (-2.4% YoY), where a decline in vehicle and communication device prices continued to suppress inflation.

Headline CPI fell to 14 year low

China: Jan CPI Inflation Fell To The Lowest Level Since 2009, Likely To Mark The Bottom_1

Silver linings in sequential numbers

The weaker-than-expected headline numbers will likely add fuel to the fire of the debate over whether or not China is facing deflation risks.

In our view, the deflation argument is overstated, and the base effects makes January's data look worse than they are. Sequential data paints a more upbeat picture. In MoM terms, headline CPI rose 0.3%, food CPI rose 0.4%, and non-food CPI rose 0.2%. While a far cry from the above-target inflation levels seen in many other economies, these numbers do not imply China is stuck in a deflationary spiral.

Furthermore, China's pork cycle also indicates that the drag from pork prices will also fade in the coming months. While still a major drag in January's data, pork price inflation has actually risen for the past two months, and the December 2023 MoM change in the pig stock was the largest decline since March 2022. With expected demand for the Lunar New Year holiday in February, this could return to positive growth in next month's release.

As such, considering the more favourable base effects for February's data, we see a high likelihood that January's data could mark the low point for YoY inflation in the current cycle.

China's pork cycle

China: Jan CPI Inflation Fell To The Lowest Level Since 2009, Likely To Mark The Bottom_2

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Samantha Luan

Economic

The United States is on a pace to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade as the mounting costs of an aging population and higher interest expenses continue to weigh on the nation’s fiscal outlook, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.

But the report did offer a sliver of relief: Recently enacted legislation to curb federal spending and a U.S. economy that has been growing faster than expected are making the fiscal picture slightly less bleak. Annual deficits over the next decade are 7 percent smaller than the $20.3 trillion the budget office forecast last year.

That decline reflects several conflicting forces. A deal that President Biden and congressional Republicans struck last year to limit discretionary spending for two years reduces deficits over the decade. So does a surge of 5.2 million new workers into the labor force, most of them immigrants.

But those deficit declines are partly offset by an increase in the estimated budget costs from Mr. Biden’s clean-energy agenda, an aging U.S. population and higher interest rates on the national debt.

The budget office’s director, Phillip L. Swagel, said that even with the decline in deficits, the nation remained on track to rack up more debt as a share of its total economic output in 2034 than at any other time in its history.

“The first message of the projections is a familiar one: that the fiscal trajectory is daunting,” Mr. Swagel said at a briefing with reporters on Wednesday. “On the other hand, it is a little bit less bad than it was in our projections last year.”

The projections for the nation’s finances come as Congress faces another deadline next month to agree on federal spending legislation to keep the government running. Lawmakers are also engaged in a heated debate over providing more aid to Ukraine and Israel and whether to expand the child tax credit and restore expired business tax breaks.The budget office projected that the annual deficit will grow to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from $1.6 trillion this year, adding $18.9 trillion to the national debt during the decade. By then, the debt is projected to surpass $54 trillion.

Interest rates have surged to two-decade highs over the past year, making borrowing costs an increasingly significant contributor to the national debt.

From 2024 to 2034, the United States will spend more than $12 trillion alone on interest costs. Starting next year, net interest costs will be larger as a share of the U.S. economy than at any time since the federal government started keeping records in 1940, according to the budget office.

Source：TheNewYorkTime

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Bitcoin Stagnates, Monero Slumps After Binance Delisting

Bitcoin’s Lackluster Performance:

Monero’s Dilemma: Binance Delisting Impact

Altcoin Performance Snapshot