News
Analysis
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Columns
Trending Topics
Daily News
To quickly learn market dynamics and follow market focuses in 15 min.
Central Bank
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Traders' Opinions
View trading ideas and learn trading strategies.
Forex
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
Recent Searches
Trending Searches
View All
No data
Bulls Have No Choice but to Be Forced to Pull Up
Summary:
The market is changing, so we should meet change with constancy. The price of gold was forced to rise by the bottom of US$1,940 yesterday and did not retreat. Under this circumstance, it is undoubtedly "stupid" to wait for the price to retreat today. If our Wave 5 downward structure is proven to be correct, then the previous Wave 3 must be adjusted, which means that Wave 4 must move up; Then the conclusion is that bulls have no choice but to be forced to pull up.
CLOSED
1963.27
Opening Price
1999.00
TP
1932.00
SL
1866.36 +1.75 +0.09%
168
Point
Profit
1932.00
SL
1964.95
Closing Price
1963.27
Opening Price
1999.00
TP
Fundamentals
According to data released on Monday, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in May dropped to 50.3 from 51.9 in April, the lowest level this year. After the data was released, traders reduced their bets on the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) fell nearly 30 points in the short term, and the short-term increase of gold price once expanded to US$14.
The PMI of the ISM service industry in the U.S. dropped from 51.9 in April to 50.3 in May. This data is far below the market expectation of 52.4%. This is the fifth consecutive month of service industry expansion, but optimism has been steadily fading since the end of 2022.
The service industry update in May reflects that the economy is gradually slowing down. Similar to the update of the manufacturing industry last week, with the slowdown of demand growth, the backlog of orders and supplier delivery time continue to improve. The improvement in supplier delivery time since February was last seen at the end of the economic recession during the global financial crisis.
Combined with last week's ISM manufacturing report, enterprises signaled that demand growth was slowing down. Combining this with improving the supply chain and easing the price pressure, although the employment growth in the non-farm payrolls report continues to be strong, the Fed has a certain guarantee that the fight against inflation is gradually making progress.
It is worth recalling that many influential Fed officials supported not raising interest rates in June last week. In addition, the market now expects that the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 13th and 14th. This, in turn, will lead to a further decline in U.S. Treasury Securities yields and may prevent USD bulls from making aggressive bets. In addition, the generally cautious market sentiment continues to promote the safe-haven gold price and limit the downside.
Against the above-mentioned fundamental background, the path of least resistance to the gold price is upward. However, investors seem reluctant, preferring to wait for the Fed's recent policy prospects to become clearer. Therefore, the focus will still be on the high-profile policy decision in June.
Fundamentals
According to our narrative and our strategy yesterday, the ups and downs of gold prices in recent trading days fully meet our expectations; However, there were some new changes in the market yesterday, which made our model have to be adjusted (although the expected mid-term decline remained unchanged).
The price of gold has been in a steady decline since it reached a record high of US$2,079 on May 4. According to our simulation graph, the price shows signs of coming out of the falling structure of Wave 5. If our 5-wave downward structure is proven to be correct, then the previous Wave 3 must be adjusted; The price of Wave 3 is not the expected US$1,951, but further moved down to the recent low of US$1,932, indicating that Wave 4 must move up. The path of least resistance to the gold price is upward.
Why do we come to such a conclusion? First of all, as a continuation of last Friday's price drop, yesterday's sharp rise and no retracement means that there are still many trapped selling orders below US$1,940; Second, the price does not retreat, which means that Wave 4 must be weighted and averaged and then raised, but it will not exceed US$2,000, otherwise the Wave 5 downward structure will not be established. Therefore, we conclude that bulls have no choice but to be forced to pull up. It is recommended to buy the dips.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1964
Target price: 1999
Stop loss: 1932
Deadline: 2023-06-20 23:55:00
Support: 1946, 1938, 1932
Resistance: 1969, 1983, 1993
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick access to 7x24
Quick access to more editor-selected real-time news
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Follow more assets
You can add more assets to your watchlist to follow more real-time quotes.
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
More comprehensive historical data on indicators to help analyze macro markets
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
Related Analysis
Bulls Take Profits, But Whether the Peak Has Been Reached Remains to Be Seen
TRADINGBulls Need to Break 1.2350 for More Meaningful Display of Technical Strength
TRADINGAsset Prices Offer a Buying Opportunity at Month-End Retracement
TRADINGGo Short at Highs as Price Breakout Is Imminent
TRADINGBeware of Selling at the Downtrend as the Market Moves Further Out of the Mean
TRADING
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2023 FastBull Ltd
Home News AI Signals Analysis Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar QuotesData WarehousePro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.