The Bulls Have Taken Profit and Left, with Oil Prices Retreating Sharply

Commodity

Summary:

After the OPEC+ production cut agreement was reached, the bulls left the market and prices are looking for support below again.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

70.807

Entry Price

74.000

67.500

72.841 -0.650 -0.88%

102.2

Pips

Profit

67.500

71.829

Exit Price

70.807

Entry Price

74.000

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (June 6th), WTI crude oil fell unilaterally, which is currently trading around $70.70 per barrel. Yesterday, the crude oil opened gap up but then went weak. The bulls gradually cashed in profits and left the market, and oil prices continued to fall. After digesting the news of additional voluntary production cuts in Saudi Arabia, the market realized that the demand outlook remained weak. Poor overnight U.S. services PMI data dragged down oil prices. Coupled with the US energy secretary's statement of concern about oil prices and cooperation with oil producers and consumers to ensure lower oil prices, oil prices fell sharply today, basically giving up half of the current round of gains, falling as low as around $70.5 per barrel, and once again near the key support level of 70.6.

Data: The US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for ISM Services came in at 50.3 in May, below market expectations of 52.2 and the previous reading of 51.9. This further increased the market's hope that the Fed chose to pause interest rate hikes at the FOMC meeting held on the 15th of this month, and the dollar has a tendency to weaken.

News: According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), industry-wide cargo capacity has returned to pre-pandemic levels for the first time in three years, with usable cargo tonne-kilometers (capacity) 3.2% higher than in April 2019. Russian crude shipments to international markets are falling slightly, but there is still no substantial sign that the Kremlin insists the country is cutting production. As the data showed, average seaborne oil exports for the four weeks ended May 28 fell for the first time in six weeks, falling to 3.64 million b/d.

Overall: In the market's view, the tough agreement reached by OPEC+ over the weekend is more of a delay, in which production cuts are mainly concentrated in 2024. However, it is far from quenching thirst. The market's interpretation of Saudi Arabia's separate production cuts is more of an attitude and test for the July production reduction market. If member states fail to implement the next production cuts, Saudi Arabia may lose its determination to cut production. The next OPEC+ meeting will be in December, during which the supply side will be disrupted again, mainly depending on the implementation of production cuts. In addition, the number of shale gas rigs in the US indicates that supply will decline in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals of the oil market may gradually improve.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily timeframe, the daily chart has fallen sharply for two consecutive days, and oil prices have retraced to 50% of the original increase (67.1-74.3). From the current point of view, the drawdown is more adequate. However, oil prices have fallen below MA10 and MA20, further testing the support of the MA5 at 70.4. Due to the stickiness of the MACD indicator, there is a lack of guidance signals. The initial resistance above is at the 72.3 line, and the initial support below is the 70 integer mark.

It is recommended that investors do not chase the market to go short within the day. Aggressive traders can go long on a rebound with small positions against the MA5 around 70.4, with a stop loss set at the 69.8 line. If the oil price rises to the 72.3 line, take profit partially and set the remaining position to break even.

WTI: The Bulls Have Taken Profit and Left, with Oil Prices Retreating Sharply _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 70.500

Target Price: 74.000

Stop Loss: 67.500

Support: 70.000/67.000

Resistance: 74.800/75.600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices are in a bullish trend shortly until they effectively break through important support.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1955.00

Entry Price

1988.00

1930.00

2607.64 -14.11 -0.54%

111.1

Pips

Profit

1930.00

1966.11

Exit Price

1955.00

Entry Price

1988.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (June 6th), spot gold oscillated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $1959. Overnight, the U.S. data was weaker than market expectations, and weak U.S. economic data cools down the market expectations of the Fed's rate hikes, dragging down the USDX from highs. In addition, there are reports that U.S. regulators are considering raising capital requirements for large banks, causing a tremendous plummet in the DJIA, and stimulating the sentiment of risk aversion. Consequently, it supports gold prices and keeps gold holding the significant support of $1940 and standing above $1952. Moreover, the short-term fluctuations in interest rate hike expectations will still disturb the trend of precious metals, so investors need to focus on the fundamental data changes.

The U.S. ISM Services (PMI) fell to 50.3 in May, below expectations of 51.5 and April's 51.9, while factory orders growth also deteriorated to 0.4% this month, below market forecasts of 0.5% and the previous 0.9%.

Large U.S. banks may have to raise capital by an average of 20% and an enormous number of banks will face stricter provisioning requirements under a draft plan from U.S. regulators, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reported on June 5th.

Due to the absence of essential data and events today, the bulls and bears just act according to historical data.

Generally, the market currently strengthens the expectation of the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes in June, but the resilience of U.S. inflation determines that interest rates will remain high for a longer period. Besides, the Fed rate hike will stop but a rate cut is still remote, with the difference in the market's expectation may be further revised. Recently, the market's focus may shift to economic data. It is expected that the recent gold and silver prices will maintain an oscillating trend.

The trading range today will be $1950-$1965.

Technical Analysis

Daily chart: gold rebounded sharply after falling under pressure yesterday, indicating a potential oscillation trend and adding the uncertainty of further direction. Nonetheless, the RSI indicator reaches 50.0, while the MACD is forming a golden cross, suggesting a bullish trend soon, which also strengthens the recovery expectation of gold. Today, the resistance above is near $1965, and if gold crosses above it, traders should focus on the pressure near the 20-day SMA ($1974) above. However, traders must shift the attention to $1940 if gold drops below the 5-day SMA ($1955).

Recommendations: If the retracement reaches the range of $1950-$1955, aggressive traders should go long with small positions in the near term with a stop-loss target at $1945. The target is to cut the positions at $1965 and take profits. Instead, if gold rebounds to $1965 today, aggressive traders can go short with small positions shortly with a stop-loss target at $1974, taking profit with fewer positions at $1955. XAUUSD: Gold Bulls Fight Back Under Weak Economic Data _1

XAUUSD: Gold Bulls Fight Back Under Weak Economic Data _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1955

Target price: 1988

Stop loss: 1930

Support: 1940.000/1932.000

Resistance: 1965.000/1988.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

Risk aversion receded and global markets started a brand new week on a positive note. Nonetheless, supported by strong fundamentals, the gold bulls still maintain an overall technical advantage in the near term. The next target for the bulls is the top of the range.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1947.00

Entry Price

1993.00

1932.00

2607.64 -14.11 -0.54%

153.0

Pips

Profit

1932.00

1962.30

Exit Price

1947.00

Entry Price

1993.00

Fundamentals

On Friday, global markets started the new week on a positive note after U.S. President Biden signed the debt ceiling bill into law, averting a catastrophic default by the U.S. government. As risk sentiment improved, gold prices continued to come under pressure and extended their losses on Monday (June 5), with their safe-haven role significantly weakened.

Meanwhile, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 339,000 jobs in May, nearly double the median estimate of 195,000 jobs. It was the largest gain since January 2023, highlighting the strength of the U.S. job market.

Subcomponents of the report, such as the unemployment rate rising from 3.4% to 3.7% and average hourly earnings growth slowing from 0.5% in the previous month to 0.3%, seem to be moving in the direction the Fed would like to see. The contradiction between strong demand for workers and easing wage pressures in a situation of apparent supply shortage is notable but likely acceptable to the Fed.

Following the data showing robust economic growth in the U.S. in May, the possibility of another rate hike by the Fed has slightly increased, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar. This has been a significant factor weighing on gold prices, which continued to face downward pressure on Monday. However, according to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 76% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged at its meeting on June 13-14, providing a floor for gold prices. To see an upward movement in gold prices, we would need to see the Fed become more dovish, which may require weaker economic data.

From a technical perspective, the gold bulls still maintain an overall technical advantage within the range. The consolidation zone around $1930 has recently been viewed as a solid support, and a failure to hold this support level could potentially drag the price further down toward the support area around $1,920. On the upside, if the gold price manages to close above $1,952 during the day, it would regain upward momentum and target the next resistance zone of $1,965-$1,970.

XAUUSD: Gold Price to Continue Wide Range Volatility Ahead of June Fed Rate Decision_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, some follow-through selling below last week's lows would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for further declines. The gold price might then accelerate its decline towards the support area of $1,920-$1,909 and eventually fall below the $1,900 round-figure mark.

However, at the time of writing, gold prices gathered bullish momentum and climbed to the top of the $2,962 intraday trading range as the release of U.S. economic data coincided. The sharp drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield following the dismal ISM Services PMI data in May was a major factor driving the strong rally in gold prices. It was also in line with our range trading (bullish) expectations.

The strong rally in gold prices has also weakened the further downward momentum after Friday's sharp price decline. Nevertheless, due to the overcrowded time cycle and the strong resistance faced (50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels), it is believed that the short-term upward trend will be difficult to sustain. Even if the bulls are able to clear these obstacles, it is still some distance away from breaking the range high of $1,993. And a break above that level is needed to get its uptrend back on track, otherwise, there is still the risk that the slide will eventually touch the 200-day SMA.

Overall, the short-term surge in gold prices was triggered by data-driven market sentiment, and a price adjustment is certainly needed given the crowded time cycle. As mentioned earlier, closing above $1,952 during the day would increase the certainty of short-term directional choice, but chasing the rally is not recommended. Instead, it's recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1947

Target Price: 1993

Stop Loss: 1932

Valid Until: 2023-06-19 23:55:00

Support: 1946, 1938, 1932

Resistance: 1962, 1969, 1983

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

We expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.5% this week, but the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be ruled out given stronger-than-expected inflation and GDP, as well as robust labor data. The market expects only a 25% chance of a rate hike on June 7, and a tough stance should be enough to support the Canadian dollar.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33950

Entry Price

1.37400

1.32290

1.37048 -0.00053 -0.04%

166.0

Pips

Loss

1.32290

Exit Price

1.33950

Entry Price

1.37400

Fundamentals

A strong start to 2023 for the Canadian economy could prompt the Bank of Canada to actively consider a rate hike this week. However, we believe it will ultimately maintain the pause in its rate hike path from January, leaving the overnight rate at 4.5% for now.

Canada's economy rebounded sharply in April after barely growing in February and March. Economic growth in the first quarter was also slightly above expectations overall, thanks to still-strong consumer spending and a strong boost from exports. Meanwhile, the year-to-date unemployment rate has not moved from its unusually low level. The resale housing market appears to have bottomed out earlier than previously feared, and inflation rose unexpectedly in April.

Nonetheless, there are still signs that a fault line is forming in the booming economy. The labor market remains strong, in part due to a population boom, which has increased consumer demand and available labor supply. We expect employment in Canada to increase by 20,000 in May, on top of a surge of about 250,000 from January to April. However, the unemployment rate is expected to remain higher as "excess" labor demand continues to ease.

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate resolution next Wednesday, a meeting with neither economic forecasts nor a press conference. Since March 2022, the Bank of Canada has raised rates by a cumulative 425 basis points, which will ultimately cause wider damage in the form of higher unemployment and lower GDP, even if it takes longer than previously thought.

With inflation still high, the Bank of Canada will not be able to wait long if the recent positive momentum continues. Two more employment reports, an inflation report, and the ever-closely watched business outlook survey will all be released between the June and July policy decisions. Further indications suggest that higher rates have not slowed down economic growth as expected. Even if the Bank of Canada chooses to pause rate hikes next week, it would signal a tendency towards a rate hike in July.

The Canadian dollar has been the best-performing G10 currency over the past month, thanks largely to its high beta to the U.S. economy and the repricing of Canadian domestic interest rates and economic growth. These factors masked crude oil's sluggish performance in May and some volatility in risk sentiment.

The Bank of Canada's strong tone at its June meeting was clearly an important factor in keeping the Canadian dollar bullish. And while the recent repricing of Fed rate expectations has led to a rally in the U.S. dollar's short-term swap rates relative to most currencies, the USDCAD 2-year swap rate differential has been trending lower. As long as the Bank of Canada does not oppose the pricing of a summer rate hike, we expect the Canadian dollar to continue to be supported.

USDCAD: Bulls Fail to Break 1.3700 Level Again, Leaving More Room for Periodic Adjustment_1

Technical Analysis

After a small pullback in the last trading session of May, the USDCAD plunged 1.2% in the first trading session of June as prices fell back to near the bottom of the range, increasing the risk of continued bearish trading.

Following the significant price drop, there are hardly any bullish signs in the short term, but the possibility of forming a bottom around 1.3400 cannot be ruled out as the stochastic oscillator is rapidly approaching its oversold level of 20. The RSI has fallen back below the 50 neutral mark, while the MACD has not continued to diverge downwards below the 0-axis. Moreover, the price is some distance above the lower Bollinger Band, indicating further potential for decline. The target is set at the 1.3386 level, which also serves as the starting point of a demand zone.

In terms of trend signals, a bearish crossover between the shorter-period and longer-period SMAs is underway. If successfully completed, it could trigger a price decline toward the 1.3386 level.

Instead, the price will rally above the SMAs after testing that level, while the 1.3500 level could trigger a bullish return, pushing the price higher to the 1.3650 ceiling. Further gains would initially stall around the 1.3740 supply area before aiming for tough resistance of 1.3800-1.3820. A break of this zone would clear the way for a top test at 1.3976 in 2022.

Overall, USDCAD remains under bearish control in the short term, awaiting confirmation of direction after the completion of testing. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.3386

Target Price: 1.3740

Stop Loss: 1.3229

Valid Until: 2023-06-19 23:55:00

Support: 1.3407, 1.3680, 1.3335

Resistance: 1.3484, 1.3550, 1.3655

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

Watch for a chance to short at the key resistance of $74 above.

SELL WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

74.000

Entry Price

72.000

76.000

72.841 -0.650 -0.88%

Pips

EXPIRED

72.000

71.620

Exit Price

74.000

Entry Price

76.000

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil opened higher and moved lower during the Asian session on Monday (June 5th), trading now near $73.10/barrel. Besides, benefiting from the OPEC+ agreement to extend production cuts to 2024 over the weekend, Saudi Arabia pledged to significantly cut production in July. In addition, Biden signed the debt ceiling bill, and the U.S. avoided a debt default and boosted oil prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. employment data released on Friday night showed an unexpectedly large increase in jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to a 7-month high, showing that the labor market is losing momentum, jobs are increasing, and employment intentions are declining, which is also reflected in the slowdown in payroll growth in May, which may help to ease the inflation.

Focus on today: U.S. April's revised monthly rate for durable goods orders, U.S. April's monthly factory orders, and U.S. May's ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Data: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Nonfarm Payrolls data, announcing that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 339,000 in May, more than the expected increase of 190,000. However, the unemployment rate rose from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April to 3.7%, a new high since October 2022, the largest increase since 2010 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period).

News: OPEC+ agreed to extend its production cut deal to 2024 to boost the oil prices, and Saudi Arabia will cut output sharply in July. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the country's production will plunge to 9 million bpd in July from about 10 million bpd in May, the biggest drop in years. In addition to extending the existing 3.66 million bpd production cut, OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to cut its overall production target by another 1.4 million bpd from the current target to 40.46 million bpd from January 2024.

In general, it is difficult for the oil market to strengthen or weaken unilaterally from the fundamentals. Last week, $67/barrel was highlighted as a great opportunity to go long on crude, and the market has responded. Over the weekend, OPEC+ extended the production cut agreement to 2024 and Saudi Arabia's expanding production cuts of 1 million barrels is also enough to express the determination to maintain the balance of oil prices, which means that the key variable in the oil market is the demand side instead of the supply side, the recovery of the global economy. Moreover, the current U.S. debt ceiling bill has been passed, and it seems the crisis has been passed. Nonetheless, the current factors affecting oil prices are complex. A factor often links multiple influencing factors, while the core rising factors should be determined by the demand growth. Production cuts are only short-term support for oil prices. Now, the current oil prices also reached the key resistance level near $74 but failed several times to effectively break through it. This time, there is a rebound opportunity, but investors should not be overly optimistic.

Technical Analysis

Daily chart: WTI has rebounded for two consecutive days, turning the direction of which with the least resistance into bulls. At present, WTI stands above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day SMAs, while the MACD shows a golden cross, indicating an initial bullish pattern. Nonetheless, WTI opened today with a doji star, exhibiting long-lower-and -long-upper-shadow patterns. Technically, the ascending momentum is fading and the price may fall back again. The initial resistance will be near $74.3 above and the initial support will be $72.3 below.

Trading recommendations about the daily chart: do not chase the market and buy at highs but wait for short selling from rebounds. The short-selling price range will be $73.8-$74.2 with the stop-loss at $75. If WTI drops to $72.3, try to take profits partially and set the remaining positions for taking profits at lower levels. WTI: Production Cut Confirmed, Be Wary of the Oscillations Induced by CM_1

WTI: Production Cut Confirmed, Be Wary of the Oscillations Induced by CM_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 74.000

Target price: 72.000

Stop loss: 76.000

Support: 72.300/70.000

Resistance: 74.800/75.600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD-CHF is trading within a rising channel, indicating a positive trend. The pair recently experienced a successful rebound from the support line, further supporting our bullish bias. We will discuss potential price movements based on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and key support and resistance levels.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.90700

Entry Price

0.92000

0.90200

0.86028 -0.00041 -0.05%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.90200

0.90198

Exit Price

0.90700

Entry Price

0.92000

Bullish Bias and Potential Upside

Given the rising channel pattern and recent rebound from the support line, our analysis leans towards a bullish outlook for USD-CHF. If the CPI data shows an increase of 0.3% or more, we anticipate the price to break the current resistance level at 0.90856. A successful breach of this resistance could pave the way for further upward movement, with the next resistance level located at 0.92158.

Bearish Scenario and Near-Term Support

While our bias remains bullish, it's important to consider alternative scenarios. If the CPI data reveals a decrease instead, we may witness a price drop in USD-CHF. In such a scenario, the pair could head towards the near-term support level at 0.89876. Traders and investors should monitor this level closely, as a decisive breach could lead to further downside momentum.

Factors to Watch

Apart from the CPI data, several other factors can influence the USD-CHF market. It's essential to keep an eye on global economic indicators, particularly those impacting the US and Switzerland. Factors such as interest rate differentials, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies can significantly impact the currency pair's performance.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE : 0.90700

STOPLOSS : 0.90200

TAKE PROFIT : 0.9200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Commodity

Summary:

Last week, XAUUSD (the price of gold in US dollars) experienced a robust resistance point, resulting in a sharp rejection.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1955.00

Entry Price

1930.00

1965.00

2607.64 -14.11 -0.54%

100.0

Pips

Loss

1930.00

1965.02

Exit Price

1955.00

Entry Price

1965.00

Gold Faces Critical Juncture: Will Bears Prevail or Bulls Rebound?_1

Last week, XAUUSD (the price of gold in US dollars) experienced a robust resistance point, resulting in a sharp rejection. Coupled with the release of disappointing economic data, the precious metal's future trajectory hangs in the balance. This article delves into the recent developments and outlines two potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming days.

The Resistance and Rejection

Gold's ascent came to a halt as it reached a formidable resistance level, driving the price to a swift rejection. This reversal was intensified by the release of negative economic news on Friday afternoon. The following key indicators shed light on the economic landscape:

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

The average change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry, was forecasted to increase by 0.3%. Remarkably, the actual figure matched the forecast precisely, indicating stability in labor costs.

Non-Farm Employment Change

This metric reflects the change in the number of employed individuals in non-farming industries during the previous month. Forecasts anticipated an increase of 193,000 jobs. However, the actual figure exceeded expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being created. This unexpected surge demonstrates a robust labor market.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate represents the percentage of the total workforce actively seeking employment during the previous month. Analysts projected a rate of 3.5%, but the actual figure came in slightly higher at 3.7%. While a marginal deviation, it hints at a slightly weaker labor market than anticipated.

Potential Scenarios

Looking ahead, two possible scenarios may unfold, determining gold's future trajectory.

Bearish Scenario

If the downward pressure on gold continues, breaching the support level of 1932.160, it could signify a bearish trend. In such a case, the next critical area of sensitivity would be in the range of 1920.458 to 1903.815. Further downside movement might then propel gold toward its bear market target, between 1828.708 and 1809.931.

Bullish Scenario

Alternatively, gold may find support at the aforementioned 1932.160 level, leading to a rebound. If this outcome materializes, we can expect the price to trade within the range observed throughout the week, ranging from 1985.749 to 1932.160.

Gold's recent struggle at a significant resistance point, combined with the release of economic data, has placed the precious metal at a crucial juncture. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the support and resistance levels to gauge the market's direction. Whether bears triumph or bulls regain control, the coming days will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of XAUUSD. As the financial landscape evolves, astute market participants will remain vigilant, adapting their strategies to navigate the ever-changing dynamics of the gold market.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL XAUUSD

ENTRY PRICE : 1955

STOPLOSS : 1965

TAKE PROFIT : 1930

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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The Bulls Have Taken Profit and Left, with Oil Prices Retreating Sharply

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Bulls Fight Back Under Weak Economic Data

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Price to Continue Wide Range Volatility Ahead of June Fed Rate Decision

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Bulls Fail to Break 1.3700 Level Again, Leaving More Room for Periodic Adjustment

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Production Cut Confirmed, Be Wary of the Oscillations Induced by CM

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD-CHF Analysis: Bullish Bias as Pair Trades in Rising Channel

Bullish Bias and Potential Upside

Bearish Scenario and Near-Term Support

Factors to Watch

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Gold Faces Critical Juncture: Will Bears Prevail or Bulls Rebound?

The Resistance and Rejection

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Non-Farm Employment Change

Unemployment Rate

Potential Scenarios

Bearish Scenario

Bullish Scenario

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Risk Disclosure