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WTI: Bullish Trend Continues, Still Suitable for Going Long After Retracement

Commodity
Summary:

In terms of trend, the oil price rallies again into the upper resistance range, with the need for adjustment in the short term. If there is no further favorable stimulus, it is difficult to continue the big rise in the short term.

Buy WTI
EXP
EXPIRED

76.500

ENTRY PRICE

81.500

TGT PRICE

73.000

SL PRICE

79.486 -0.008 -0.01%

--

Point

EXPIRED

73.000

SL PRICE

80.640

CLOSING

76.500

ENTRY PRICE

81.500

TGT PRICE

Fundamentals

The CPI data was released in the US on Thursday, with both headline and core inflation in the US lower in December as expected. This is further evidence that price pressures are easing and provides room for the Fed to slow the pace of rate rises next month. Risk appetite has picked up to drive dramatic volatility across various assets, with the oil price remaining relatively strong after the pull. This week, the oil price recovered continuously, and especially on Wednesday in the background of bearish inventory data, the oil price rose sharply to clear the gloom over the oil market. As a result, the confidence of the bulls was obviously boosted, recovered most of the lost ground in the first two trading days of the year, and the pattern of the range oscillation is clearer.
Overall, the global market will usher in a recovery phase from the lows in crude oil demand at the end of 2022. With the "re-liberalization" of China, the likelihood of another significant deterioration in demand indicators is greatly reduced. Whether demand will be as strong as expected at this stage remains to be verified; yet again the market will not be able to falsify this in the short term. The oil price needs time to digest the upper resistance at lows, and it is expected to maintain the "see-saw pattern" at lows before this time. In terms of trend, the oil price rallies again into the upper resistance range, with the need for adjustment in the short term. If there is no further favorable stimulus, it is difficult to continue the big rise in the short term, or range oscillation is dominant.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, the price is rising unilaterally. The bullish divergence signal of the MACD continues with a golden cross and the SMAs are nearing a bullish alignment, with a bullish bias in the short term. The oil price is expected to test upward the resistance near the 80-integer mark. In the short term, there will be resistance near the December 1 high of 83.28; strong resistance is near the 93 mark, and the high resistance of November 7 last year is also near that position. Initial support below is near the 5-day SMA at 77 and strong support near the 10-day SMA at 76.5; if the price falls back to this position, a topping signal for the short term will be added.WTI: Bullish Trend Continues, Still Suitable for Going Long After Retracement_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 76.500
Target price: 81.500
Stop loss: 73.000
Support: 77.000/72.500
Resistance: 81.500/83.500
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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I worked as an analyst at a well-known forex brokerage firm and have been engaged in the financial industry for 10 years, involving forex, futures and stocks. I'm especially good at analyzing and interpreting the market using fundamental data.

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