On Jan 17th, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's economic volume exceeded 120 trillion CNY in 2022, reaching 121 trillion CNY, up 3.0% from the previous year. In 2022, the national fixed asset investment scale exceeded 57 trillion CNY, up 5.1% from the previous year, with a growth rate of 0.2% faster than in 2021.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that it forecasts global economic growth of 3% in 2022 (previously forecast was 2.8%). Besides, global economic growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2023 (unchanged by previous forecasts). Also, China's oil demand is expected to grow by 510,000 barrels per day this year, and global oil demand growth in 2023 will be 2.22 million barrels per day. 

Some of the foreign investment banks that previously called for a very strong global recession have recently started to turn, perhaps triggered by the liberalization of the pandemic in China and the energy crisis in Europe that did not work out as expected. Even the unanimous expectation of the U.S. recession now sees the dawn of a soft landing of the economy, the number of new nonfarm payrolls is generally better than the market expectations. In addition, the unemployment rate is lower than the market expectations, meaning that the labor market is still strong, while nonfarm hourly earnings exceeded expectations and the CPI fell for 3 consecutive months, MoM. Overall, the optimistic expectations of the domestic oil market continue to strengthen, which boosted the oil market significantly, and further influenced the global market. Such a strong market is beyond many investors' expectations, which also reminds investors to maintain respect for the market. Meanwhile, the Chinese New Year holiday is getting closer, and investors shall try to manage the risk when following the trend to go long.   

Regarding the daily chart, WTI surged unilaterally. Furthermore, MACD's bullish divergence signals continued, and the golden cross expanded without any overbought signals. Additionally, the moving averages are lining up in a bullish trend shortly, with the oil price expected to test the resistance near 83 above, which is near the high on December 1st last year. Moreover, the initial support below is at 80, which is also close to the 5-day moving average, and the strong support is near the 10-day moving average of 77.6. If WTI declines near this support, the short-term topping signal will be increased.    

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 78.000

Target price: 83.500

Stop loss: 75.000

Support: 80.000/77.600

Resistance: 83.500/93.000