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USDX: USD Market Is About to Change; Who Is the Winner, Market or the Fed？
Summary:
The speeches of the Fed officials in the past two days show that the Fed is refuting the expectation that interest rate hikes will slow down and the theory of recession, but it is still unclear whether the market will believe it. Surely, the USD may reach a turning point. Additionally, the recession theory that "has plagued" the USD may be temporarily dissipated in the "fightback" of Fed officials.
CLOSED
106.870
ENTRY
106.215
TGT
107.254
SL
103.418 -0.690 -0.66%
384
Points
Loss
106.215
TGT
107.254
CLOSING
106.870
ENTRY
107.254
SL
Fundamentals
The USD fluctuated on Wednesday, appreciating slightly by 0.03%. Additionally, the ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a three-month high in July, beating market expectations. Also, because of the strong growth in orders, supply bottlenecks and price pressures are eased. In addition, three more Fed officials spoke yesterday:
St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that there are still efforts for the Fed to make to reach a restrictive monetary policy. Besides, with spring inflation data heating up, He demonstrated that it should hit 3.75% to 4% this year. Moreover, he was in favor of working hard in the early stages which would strengthen the credibility of the Fed against inflation.
Richmond Fed President Barkin said, inflation is expected to slowly decline, and job growth of nearly 400,000 and record-low unemployment are not linked to a recession.
San Francisco Fed President Daly claimed a 50-basis point rate hike in September would be reasonable based on the current data. Moreover, the Fed will hope to achieve its 2% inflation target by the end of 2023 or early 2024, and interest rates will remain high for six months or more, or even a year.
Combined with the speech of the Fed officials the day before yesterday, the Fed is refuting the expectation that interest rate hikes will slow down, and it is also revealed that the market has "scrambled" over the line. The Fed clarified, that inflation is not slowing down, and the priority of the Fed is still combating inflation. Besides, the US economy is not in recession, there is still room for further policy tightening, and it is too early to talk about a slowdown in rate hikes.
However, it is not the time to confirm whether the market will believe it. The only certain thing is that the USD may reach a turning point. Additionally, the recession theory that "has plagued" the USD may be temporarily dissipated in the "fightback" of Fed officials.
Technical Analysis
Referring to the 4-hour chart, the USD's high yesterday was blocked by resistance formed by the uptrend line and the top of the channel, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (106.866). For indicators, Stoch is close to the oversold zone. Moreover, in DMI, the ADX line has fallen slightly from the previous value, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is weakened, while the rising -DI shows that the USD will depreciate further in the short term. Furthermore, in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the price fell below the turning line. There are signs of moving closer to the benchmark line, and the turning line and the benchmark have widened a large gap, indicating that the USD will depreciate shortly. In general, the USD is expected to appreciate and then decline.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 106.870
Target price: 106.215
Stop loss: 107.254
Support: 106.215/105.559/105.00
Resistance: 106.866/107.254/107.484
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