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      USDJPY: Bulls Weak, Rally Remains a Shorting Opportunity

      Nonfarm PayrollsInterest Rate ResolutionThe Fed
      Summary:

      Non-farm payroll data will be the key to determining the next move of the US dollar. USDJPY has rebounded in the short term, but as the rebound is limited, there is a possibility of another dip.

      Sell USDJPY
      End Time
      CLOSED

      134.800

      ENTRY PRICE

      130.800

      TGT PRICE

      137.800

      SL PRICE

      136.902 +1.022 +0.75%

      130

      Points

      Profit

      130.800

      TGT PRICE

      134.670

      CLOSING

      134.800

      ENTRY PRICE

      137.800

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Despite the Bank of Japan's repeated insistence that it will not change its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, it is difficult for the Bank of Japan to stand alone as other central banks have accelerated tightening. The market is speculating that the possibility of the BOJ intervening is growing in the face of the depreciating yen. Meanwhile, as recession expectations rose and expectations of a sharp Fed rate hike cooled, the dollar weakened sharply at one point, which in turn pushed the dollar down sharply against the yen.
      Although the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, the job market remains strong and is not counted as a recession in the real sense. The Fed's policy bias is not dovish enough. With inflationary pressures hardly receding quickly, the Fed still needs to maintain its tightening program. The dollar may not reverse until signals of a significant slowdown in inflation are seen. Whereas the dollar's decline in the short term may only be temporary, the possibility of a renewed strength cannot be ruled out.
      This Friday will see the US non-farm payrolls for July, after initial jobless claims have risen for 6 consecutive weeks. Job market conditions remain tight with very few unemployed, but there are signs of cooling. If the July non-farm payroll data is less than expected, the expectations of a sharp rate hike by the Fed will be reduced and the USDJPY may dip again.

      Technical Analysis

      USDJPY: Bulls Weak, Rally Remains a Shorting Opportunity_1
      From the daily chart, after a severely overbought state and continuous negative divergence in price, USDJPY welcomes a sharp retracement in the market, with a fierce decline in the short term and signs of peaking. While there is a rebound in the short term, the magnitude is limited and there is a possibility of another dip.
      USDJPY: Bulls Weak, Rally Remains a Shorting Opportunity_2
      In the 4H timeframe, USDJPY has rallied after a sharp dip from the highs. Currently, the exchange rate is located below the upper-pressure level of 134.5 and the indicator RSI is still above 50. A rally is still likely to happen in the near term. However, bulls are in near recession and the price may continue to move lower after a short-term adjustment.
      It is recommended to go short at highs in the short term. And it is suggested to go short with small positions after the price rallies to near 135.0 and stabilizes, targeting the key support level below near 130.8, with a stop loss above 136.7.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 134.80
      Target price: 130.80
      Stop loss: 137.80
      Support: 130.0/129.5
      Resistance: 132.5/134.5
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Winkelmann

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      7 years of stock market, foreign exchange, precious metal and other trading and analysis experience, based on fundamental, technical support, biased towards the top-down transaction logic, focusing on macro cycle and risk control, multi-purpose supply and demand theoretical prediction price Changes, balances the impact of transactions, chips distribution and market sentiment, and steady.

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