With Support from Buying, Gold Closed Higher

Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation range should be $2350 - $2430, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

2350.00

Entry Price

2430.00

2340.00

3327.02 -15.88 -0.48%

Pips

EXPIRED

2340.00

2371.63

Exit Price

2350.00

Entry Price

2430.00

Fundamentals

During Friday's (April 19th) Asian session, spot gold ascended significantly, and it is now trading at $2384.

Last night, the Fed policymakers agreed that "there is no rush" to cut interest rates. John Williams, the New York Fed president, mentioned the possibility of a rate hike, while the number of U.S. initial jobless claims announced last week remained at a low level. Thus, the market rate cut expectations were suppressed again, boosting the USDX to 106, and the 10Y U.S. bond rate closed at 4.64%. Recently, more Fed officials mentioned "rate hike", which has a clear shift from the previous direction. However, the effect on gold price was less, and the market kept trading geopolitical risk and inflation rise.

Early in the morning, there are rumors of explosions in Syria and Iran, and the market traded as Israel's counter-retaliation against Iran. Under the risk aversion sentiment, gold surged sharply upward, breaking through $2400 to $2418 with a rise of $ 45. The emergence of frequent geopolitical issues triggers the trend, including the former Russia and Ukraine, followed by Palestine and Israel, and now Iran and Israel. If Israel confirms the counter-retaliation actions, the rise in gold price should just begin then. Investors should focus on the geopolitical issues.

Officials: John Williams, Fed's third person, who enjoys the permanent voting rights of the FOMC, said if the data show that the Fed needs to raise interest rates to achieve the goal, then it will raise interest rates. He also explained that rate cuts should not be implemented urgently, although ultimately, they are still necessary. Economic data will determine the timing of rate cuts. In addition, early this morning, Fed's Bostic said he was satisfied with keeping interest rates stable and reiterated that it would be inappropriate to reduce borrowing costs before the end of the year. At the same time, he claimed previously, that he expected the Fed to cut rates only once this year. Fed's Kashkari, on the other hand, said that the Fed could delay rate cuts until after 2024.

Geopolitical issues: Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said an explosion was heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan, but the cause was not yet clear. Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, the heart of Iran's uranium enrichment program.

Data: U.S. initial jobless claims were flat at 212,000 for the week ended April 13th, still better than market forecasts for 215,000.

Today's focus: Geopolitical situations in Iran and Israel.

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, gold rose and fell, forming a narrow oscillating pattern. It oscillated upward by following the SMAs and fell from highs due to the risk-aversion sentiment in today's morning session. Today, we should see if the resistance at $2418 is broken, since gold will test the resistance at $2430 if it does. According to what we mentioned yesterday, gold should form a perfect double tops pattern.

Technically, gold oscillated yesterday between $2360 and $2395 with a difference of about 30 dollars. The surge in the morning released the bullish sentiment, and the resistance will be near $2400. With the release of the bullish sentiment, gold is likely to plummet this evening, and the target price will be $2360, or even lower. In the 1H chart, the DIF line and DEA line in MACD stick closely without any signals. After falling from highs, gold should enter the previous effective range and oscillate, and investors should focus on the pattern in the U.S. session. In the 4H chart, the DIF line and DEA line in MACD attached, show no signal. With the short-term overbought, gold should retrace to recover the indicators, and investors should keep range trading. However, an important trend should appear this evening. In the daily chart, the MACD line stays in the serious overbought area and tends to form a death cross. If the bearish momentum keeps releasing, a smooth retracement will emerge, and a double top pattern will show up, suggesting a possible bearish trend. We have to be clear that technical indicators are for reference in normal situations, and they will be invalid under extreme situations. Today, the trading range will be $2350-$2430, where aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With Support from Buying, Gold Closed Higher _1

With Support from Buying, Gold Closed Higher _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 2350

Target price: 2430

Stop loss: 2340

Support: 2350.000/2319.000

Resistance: 2400.000/2431.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold surges on rising Middle East tensions, defying strong US data. $2,431.45 key resistance for bulls aiming for $2,510 target. Watch for profit-taking if tensions ease. Overall bullish trend likely to hold unless prices fall below $2,370 support.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2400.00

Entry Price

2510.00

2360.00

3327.02 -15.88 -0.48%

400.0

Pips

Loss

2360.00

2359.95

Exit Price

2400.00

Entry Price

2510.00

Gold prices surged on Thursday, defying strong US economic data that would typically dampen its appeal. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,387.69 per ounce, nearing its all-time high of $2,431.29 set last week. US gold futures also climbed 0.6%.

The primary driver for the gold price increase was escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel's signals of retaliation against Iranian attacks, despite calls for restraint from the West, have heightened investor anxiety. This uncertainty is prompting a flight to safety, with gold – the traditional safe-haven asset – benefiting from the increased risk aversion.

Further escalation could push gold prices past $2,500, while a potential ceasefire could see a decline to $2,200. Central bank purchases are also seen as providing underlying support for gold prices.

While robust US economic data, including unchanged low levels of weekly jobless claims, would typically lead to expectations of fewer interest rate cuts, this has had a mixed impact on gold. On the one hand, a hawkish Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates reduces the appeal of non-yielding gold.

However, the strong economic data could also be interpreted as a sign of potential inflationary pressures down the line, which could ultimately benefit gold in the long run.While some profit-taking might occur after the recent price surge, a sharp decline is unlikely.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold's bullish momentum remains intact. The Stochastic oscillator, a popular indicator of overbought and oversold conditions, continues to generate buy signals, suggesting further upside potential for the remainder of the trading day. A critical level to watch is the recent high of $2,400. A decisive break above this resistance could trigger a significant rally towards the key target of $2,510.00.

Conversely, a failure to breach the $2,400 resistance zone could indicate a temporary pause in the uptrend. However, the overall bullish bias is likely to remain in place as long as prices hold above the crucial support level of $2,370.00. A breakdown below this level could signal a potential short-term correction, with the anticipated trading range for the day then shifting to $2,320.00 (support) and $2,370.00 (resistance).

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE : 2400

STOP LOSS : 2360

TAKE PROFIT : 2510

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Sterling is flat ahead of key UK retail sales data. A positive surprise could lift the pound, but mixed technicals and global inflation concerns make the outlook uncertain. Watch the $1.2480 resistance level for a potential bullish breakout.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.25000

Entry Price

1.23850

1.26000

1.32912 +0.00249 +0.19%

38.0

Pips

Loss

1.23850

1.25380

Exit Price

1.25000

Entry Price

1.26000

The British pound (GBP) has maintained a subdued presence this week, with GBP/USD currently trading at $1.2450, down slightly on the day. This lackluster performance comes ahead of tomorrow's key release of UK retail sales data for March.

Retail Sales: A Beacon of Hope?

Market expectations are cautiously optimistic for the upcoming retail sales figures. The forecast points towards a 0.7% year-on-year (y/y) increase in March, a welcome improvement following February's disappointing 0.4% y/y decline. This positive sentiment is buoyed by the recent British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales index, which jumped a surprising 3.5% y/y in March.

This surge in BRC data, fueled by Easter holiday spending on food, injects a dose of hope into the official retail sales outlook. However, concerns remain regarding the volatility seen in consumer spending throughout 2024. Adverse weather conditions have demonstrably kept shoppers at home, and the overall impact on retail sales requires careful consideration.

Inflationary Tug-of-War: Rate Cuts on Hold?

Despite falling to its lowest level since September 2021 (3.2% y/y in March), UK inflation remains above the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. This stickiness, particularly in core inflation, keeps the BoE cautious about signaling potential rate cuts. The Paris Olympics and upcoming Taylor Swift concerts are expected to boost consumer spending in the coming months, further complicating the BoE's monetary policy decision-making.

Across the pond, the US Federal Reserve also finds itself grappling with inflationary pressures. Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments suggest that higher-than-expected inflation in February and March could delay anticipated rate cuts. The robustness of the US economy, coupled with rising inflation, has thrown market expectations for rate cuts into disarray.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD's current test of the $1.2480 resistance level is a pivotal moment. Maintaining a position below this level is crucial for the continuation of the current bearish trend. A decisive breakout above this resistance, however, could mark a significant shift in momentum.

Should a bullish breakout occur, it could trigger an intraday bullish wave, potentially targeting the $1.2580 area initially. This price level coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which can act as a dynamic support or resistance zone depending on the prevailing market sentiment.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) currently sits at a level that continues to support the ongoing bearish sentiment. It's important to remember our previously identified target of $1.2385, which remains in play if the bearish trend resumes. The anticipated trading range for GBP/USD falls between $1.2380 (support) and $1.2540 (resistance).

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE : 1.2500

STOP LOSS : 1.2600

TAKE PROFIT : 1.23850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Commodity

Summary:

Following Wednesday's decline, gold prices rebounded to $2,380 during the European session on Thursday. Intensive speeches by Fed officials once again stirred up market uncertainty.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2392.00

Entry Price

2358.00

2415.00

3327.02 -15.88 -0.48%

230.0

Pips

Loss

2358.00

2415.10

Exit Price

2392.00

Entry Price

2415.00