The US March CPI surpassed expectations, rebounding again and further dampening market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Many economists and analysts have expressed that the dream of a Fed rate cut has been shattered, but this negative sentiment still cannot halt the frenzy of gold's soaring prices. Indeed, gold prices once again reached new highs today, touching the 2400 mark.

It's evident that the previous logic behind gold's strength seems to no longer apply. Even with the US dollar's rise, it is difficult to stop the soaring momentum of gold. Gold behaves like a wild horse running amok to disregard everything in its path and leave the market bewildered.

As mentioned earlier, this upward trend in gold is epic, reflecting a major adjustment in response to the inflation caused by decades of currency issuance and also a significant devaluation of the U.S. dollar relative to gold. Analysts have long pointed out that although gold prices continue to hit nominal record highs, they still have a considerable distance to reach the historical peak of $3,355 per ounce set in 1980 (adjusted for inflation). Therefore, buying on dips remains the best choice as gold prices are likely to continue rising.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD is once again accelerating its upward surge, with RSI showing increased momentum. It is now reasonable to believe that this one-sided trend is different from before, with correction magnitudes often being small and bullish momentum continuing to strengthen. Therefore, it's advisable to avoid speculating on short positions. Once breaking and stabilizing above 2400, there will be further opportunities for acceleration upwards, with the next target potentially reaching 2500.

Currently, in the short term, gold prices are overbought, but corrections still offer buying opportunities. In terms of trading, it's recommended to go long when gold prices stabilize around 2365 on corrections, with a target set near 2450 and a stop loss below 2320.

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2365

Target Price: 2450

Stop Loss: 2290

Support: 2320/2365

Resistance: 2400/2450

After the surge on Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) fluctuated at the highs on Thursday, closing only slightly up by 0.06%. Although the PPI, another inflation data released, was lower than the market expectation both YoY and MoM, which caused the interest rate cut expectation to heat up slightly, the speech of the Federal Reserve officials later suppressed the market expectation again, so that the USDX completely recovered the decline when PPI was quoted.

Although the PPI data was slightly lower than expected, it continued the hope of a possible interest rate cut before the end of the year, slightly eased the tension caused by the strong CPI growth on Wednesday, and boosted the market's confidence that the Fed would cut interest rates during the year. However, compared with the previous expectation of interest rate cuts in June, it has already shrunk by more than half, which is also the reason for the limited impact on the USDX.

After that, several Fed officials' speeches cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts again:

New York Fed President Williams told reporters on Thursday that "there is no obvious need to adjust monetary policy in the short term".

In another speech in New York, Boston Fed President Collins said, "Recent data suggest that restrictive monetary policy needs to be maintained for a longer period before interest rates are cut in order to have greater confidence that inflation is continuing to decline. This underscores the uncertainty over rate cuts and the need to be cautious about an uneven decline in inflation, which also implies that interest rate cuts this year may not be as large as previously expected".

For his part, Barkin said that "the latest data did not boost his confidence that price pressures in the overall economy are generally easing, that the timing of the rate cut depends on the upcoming data and that it would be wise to take your time to see if inflation slows down".

The three officials' speeches echoed the views of a number of colleagues recently, that is, because inflation seems to be on the "bumpy" road back to the 2% target, interest rates should not be cut too quickly. Adding the influence of CPI on Wednesday, the USDX rose again and again. After the opening of the European session in the day, the USDX rose rapidly in the short term, from 105.4 to 105.7.

Overall, the USDX is currently still under the influence of "cooling rate cut expectations." However, judging from its trend, the short-term upside may be limited, so it's not recommended to blindly chase high.

The preliminary estimate of the U.S. 1-year inflation rate for April at the University of Michigan will be released during the day. At this sensitive stage, if inflation expectations have risen, it may once again stimulate market sentiment.

In the 4H timeframe, the USDX has come to the top of the upward channel, while the Fibonacci retracement line of 0.236 is also in its vicinity, so the resistance zone can be regarded as a key resistance. The focus needs to be on whether the USDX is able to stabilize in the resistance range. If stabilized, it will kick off a new round of uptrend, otherwise, there may be a round of deep pullback.

In terms of indicators, the short-term pull-up after the opening of the European session in the day has made the baseline and conversion line in the Ichimoku chart go up, especially the conversion line, which has experienced a surge. It shows that the USDX has strong bullish momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the baseline and conversion line will consolidate in the future. If so, there will be a risk of pullback. In DMI, the crossover between +DI and -DI is widening, and -DI is below +DI at 7.6 and enters the rebound range, indicating that a retracement in the USD looming.

Overall, the USDX rose strongly in the short term, but the downside risks are accumulating. There is no important data in the day. Considering the market's subsequent impact on CPI and the digestion of Fed officials' speeches, the USDX could experience a round of pullback. For intraday trading, you can try to go short.

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 105.650

Target price: 104.90

Stop loss: 106.20

Support: 105.10, 104.698, 104.370

Resistance: 105.650, 105.90, 106.40

EURUSD traded in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday (April 12), and it is currently hovering around 1.068.

US PPI data published yesterday was weaker than expected, but the US dollar index still climbed with the support of the downward revised rate-cut expectations. Especially after the release of CPI data on Wednesday, the interest rate futures market expected only 1.65 rate cuts by 41 basis points in total this year, and the first cut was postponed from July (88%) to September (88%). As a result, EURUSD plummeted to a low point not seen in nearly two months, with a daily decline of 1.04% on Wednesday. At the same time, the ECB decided to maintain interest rates unchanged. Lagarde emphasized in her speech that there will be no predetermined interest rate path, no dependence on the Fed, and no exchange rate targeting. The euro briefly fell below the 1.07 level against the dollar but gradually recovered from the decline. Looking ahead, from the perspective of monetary policy outlook, the euro may struggle to show strength. If the immediate support fails, it could further open up downside space. The initial support in the short term is around 1.06-1.065. If the price falls below this range, the next support at 1.0450 will be crucial.

Data: The U.S. March PPI grew by 2.1% from a year earlier, which was slightly lower than expected, while the monthly growth rate slowed to 0.2%, which was higher than expected. The core PPI in March continued to accelerate on a year-on-year basis for three consecutive months, recording a growth rate of 2.4%, slightly higher than the expected rate. However, the month-on-month growth rate slowed down to 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. Commodity prices further declined in March, and the growth rate of service prices also slowed.

Focus of today: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

EURUSD continued its weakness yesterday, with no significant rebound. In the U.S. session, it broke below the important support level of 1.0700. Next, it will test the support in the 1.0600-1.0650 area. If this support cannot hold, the weakness may persist.

From a technical perspective, EURUSD closed lower yesterday. After being oversold previously, the pair did not see significant rebound yesterday, indicating its extreme weakness. After the consolidation in the past two days, the price may stabilize around the 1.06-1.065 area. If it effectively breaks below that area, the downside momentum will increase. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the MACD death cross is widening. It has not reached the oversold territory, and the bearish momentum is still being released. Do not try to buy the bottom based on this. Be patient and wait for the market to stabilize around the 1.06-1.065 area before considering opportunities to go long. There is also a short-term demand for rebounds in the market. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD has formed a death cross and entered the oversold territory. The bearish momentum has been fully released. The price may rebound at any time. It is not recommended to chase shorts, but do not easily attempt to buy the dip, either. Pay attention to the support near 1.065 and consider trading with a small position and a tight stop loss at the support level. On the daily chart, after a bearish reversal signal two days ago, the market continued its weakness yesterday. However, it was unusual that there was virtually no big rebound, and it closed with another bearish candle. Currently, EURUSD is approaching a key support level. If it cannot hold the first support level, it will retreat to the second support level. The trading range today can be considered as 1.0600-1.0800. Aggressive traders can sell high and buy low within this range.

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.0600

Target Price: 1.0800

Stop Loss: 1.0550

Support: 1.0650, 1.0450

Resistance: 1.0750, 1.0900

During Friday's (April 12) Asian session, WTI crude oil traded narrowly, currently hovering around 85.2.

Yesterday's oil price saw a fluctuating decline, with the OPEC+ monthly report failing to boost market sentiment. This week, oil prices have continued their streak of inconsistency, characterized by alternating gains and losses every other day, resulting in a choppy and volatile trend. This suggests that the crude oil market is facing numerous uncertainties, with the recent fluctuation in geopolitical risks and the release of economic data exceeding expectations confounding investors' judgments on oil prices.

Looking back at yesterday's market movements, aside from the technical indicators signaling a need for correction, a statement from Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations also contributed to the decline. The mission indicated that if the UN Security Council had previously condemned the attack on the embassy by Israel, the possibility of Iran retaliating might have been eliminated. This statement was simplistically interpreted by the market as Iran backing down, leading to a subsequent downturn. However, this statement contains a crucial conditional clause, "if," and given the UN's inaction, market sentiment may continue to fluctuate. Therefore, excessive bearishness is not advisable in the current market environment, with key levels indicating opportunities for buying low and selling high.

Data-wise, US March PPI year-on-year growth rate of 2.1% was slightly lower than expected, while month-on-month growth rate unexpectedly slowed to 0.2%; March core PPI continued its three-month consecutive increase to 2.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected growth rate, while month-on-month growth slowed to 0.2% from February, meeting expectations.

In terms of recent news, according to reports from foreign media, sources have revealed that the US Middle East envoy reached out to the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iraq, urging them to convey a message to Iran to ease tensions with Israel. Sources said that Brett McGurk, the US Middle East envoy, requested these officials to contact the Iranian Foreign Minister to convey the message urging Iran to ease tensions with Israel, and they complied. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iraq had spoken with the Iranian Foreign Minister to discuss regional tensions.

Focus of the Day: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US, with particular attention to changes in geopolitical risks.

Yesterday's oil price decline was in line with expectations, continuing the recent trend of fluctuations. Nonetheless, the decline was not significant, and after finding support around the 84.3 level, there was a rebound which intensified late at night. In the past week, the market has shown clear back-and-forth between bulls and bears, with very weak momentum. With the weekend ahead, there's plenty of room for bullish speculation over the next two days. Today's market is likely to rebound, but the magnitude may not be too high. It's still a prime opportunity for buying low and selling high, and the previous support zone of 83.8-84.3 remains effective.

Returning to technical analysis, yesterday's oil price movement was largely as expected, continuing its inconsistent pattern. It once again found support around the 84.3 level during the session, providing a comfortable opportunity for long positions, but the rebound lacked a bit of momentum. Given the alternating nature of ups and downs, today's market may see a volatile but generally bullish trend.

Looking at the hourly candlestick chart, yesterday's market showed two consecutive bullish piercing reversal signals, indicating a relatively reliable short-term outlook. The MACD also showed a golden cross, suggesting a probable short-term rebound during the day. In the 4-hour candlestick chart, a reversal signal was observed at the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD is likely to form a golden cross, indicating a potential sustained rebound. However, expectations should not be overly high, and initial attention should be paid to resistance around the 86-86.5 area. While analyzing the daily chart, oil prices closed with a bearish candlestick yesterday, with the MACD showing a trend of a death cross once again. From a longer-term perspective, there's a possibility of prices returning to a downward trend, and it's important to keep an eye on the short-term rebound scenario throughout the day, especially at the hourly level.

For intraday traders, trading within the range of 84.0-86.5 remains viable, with opportunities for buying low and selling high.

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 84.000

Target Price: 86.500

Stop Loss: 83.500

Support: 84.000, 82.500

Resistance: 86.000, 87.100

Spot gold surged during the Asian session on Friday (April 12), and it is currently trading around 2392. 

The YoY and MoM increase of the US PPI for March was lower than expected, rising 2.1% YoY, which is the highest level since April last year. Commodity prices declined, and the growth of service prices slowed. The US dollar index retreated to 105.28 after surging higher, and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered at a high level and closed at 4.58%. Gold surged after retracing to the lowest level of 2325, and hit a record high of 2377. 

Meanwhile, Fed officials remained hawkish last night. Recently, they have all claimed in unison that there is no need to rush a rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams said that the Fed has made "tremendous progress" in balancing the dual goals of inflation and employment, but there is no need to cut rates "in the short term". At the moment, US and German central banks expect one rate cut in December this year. The US dollar may remain strong this year, which is not good news for gold prices. Currently, support for gold prices from policy easing has largely disappeared, and the biggest support now is geopolitical risks and the gold demand of central banks.

Recently, gold prices have traded against headwinds. The current international gold price inversely proportional to the holdings of gold ETFs, which has not been seen for more than 20 years. Gold remaining resilient against bearish factors indicates that gold price movements have been detached from the fundamentals. Some people will say that although the traditional analytical framework is outdated, the trading behavior of investors is free, which reminds me of the "Chinese Dama" (middle-aged women) who rushed to purchase gold. However, the biggest driver now is central banks. It was the central banks that brought the gold price up in the face of a large number of sell orders from ETFs. However, are these central banks just pumping money into the market without reason? According to the forecast of the Global Gold Council, global central banks will not significantly increase the share of gold in foreign exchange reserves in the next five years. If the buying of gold fails to meet the expectation, gold prices will pull back sharply.

In 2011, the gold price exceeded 1800, and it was not until 2020 that the pandemic saved the bulls, a total of nine years! In addition, the gold purchased in 1980 was not able to sell out until 2006, the young man becoming a middle-aged uncle. Therefore, as no stock will always go up or down, traders should take long positions when the market is bleak and go short when the market is hot!

Fed meeting minutes: Almost all officials believe this year is appropriate for a rate cut, and are planning to start slowing balance sheet reduction "soon". The Fed is ready to slow its balance sheet reduction "soon" and the monthly reduction of US Treasuries will be lower, according to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal.

Data: The US PPI grew by 2.1% YoY in March, slightly lower than expected, with the MoM growth slowed more than expected to 0.2%. Core PPI MoM rose to to 2.4%, slightly higher than expected, which has accelerated for the third consecutive month in March while MoM growth slowed to 0.2%, in line with expectations. Commodity prices fell in March, and the growth of service prices also slowed.

Today, traders need to focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Gold prices retreated in the Asian session yesterday and found support after falling back as low as 2325. Prices began to rebound after the data release in the American session, and the increase extended further in the middle of the night, which hit a record high of 2377 and finally closed with a long bull candle. Gold prices are still in the bullish trend, and give chances for the bulls to enter the market after each pullback. This pattern has maintained for a long time. At present, gold prices are gradually approaching an extremely strong resistance level at 2400, which will inevitably increase oscillations. Therefore, it is not recommended for traders to chase the market at this time, but to go long after the price pullback.

Gold prices hit another record high after the pullback, surging 1.7% to 2377, and are currently facing the test of the integer mark of 2400. Without more bullish news, this resistance level will not be broken in the short term. Under rate-cut expectations, gold prices have surged 400 bps (20%) this year, which is a record high. Although the bullish trend has not peaked currently, the risk of chasing the market is like a snowball, which can explode at any time. In the 1-hour chart, the golden cross of the MACD gradually widened and entered the overbought area. The bullish momentum was also nearing its end. During the day, gold prices are likely to maintain their sentiment, and an hour-level pullback will occur after the surge, with the resistance expected around 2400. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD golden cross began to widen, and the bearish divergence signal appeared again. The spot gold will be bearish again in the short term technically, but this judgment will be less convincing with the effect of the market sentiment. Today, gold prices will retreat after the surge. In the daily chart, gold prices closed with a long bull candle yesterday, with a bullish piercing pattern, which also indicates the bullish trend today. As gold prices are still in the heavily overbought area, the strength of the pullback after meeting resistance will also be not small. Therefore, it is not recommended for traders to chase the market but to maintain a short-term strategy of buying low and selling high. It is worth emphasizing that any indicator, including technical indicators, is only suitable as a reference for the daily market and can be distorted in extreme markets. During the day, aggressive traders can buy low and sell high in the range of 2350-2420.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 2420

Target Price: 2350

Stop Loss: 2430

Support: 2365.000/2319.000

Resistance: 2400.000/2450.000

Overnight, the US inflation data for March surged, pushing the USDJPY above the 152.00 level and reaching as high as 153.00, the highest level since 1990, sparking concerns about potential currency intervention.

However, responses from key officials today indicate that more cautious approaches are currently under consideration. In particular, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki acknowledged the complexity of the impact of yen depreciation, highlighting both advantages and disadvantages. It appears that Japan is not yet prepared for direct intervention.

Suzuki emphasized that the government is closely monitoring the currency market with "a sense of urgency." However, he also stressed that Japan is "not just looking at (USDJPY) levels themselves such as 152 yen or 153 yen (per dollar) but also analyzing their background." Suzuki reiterated the importance of currency stability, emphasizing that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations.

Japan's Chief Currency Diplomat, Masato Kanda, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the "rapid" recent movements of the yen. While Kanda did not dismiss intervention measures, he pointed out the lack of fixed levels to trigger such actions. "I don't have any particular (USDJPY) level in mind," he mentioned.

Encouraged by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's remarks that excessive yen volatility is undesirable, the yen weakened further against other G10 and Asian currencies after strengthening in early trading.

If the situation becomes chaotic now, Japanese authorities may continue to use strong rhetoric and intervene. An intriguing factor is how the Bank of Japan will ultimately handle the issue; we may see the Bank of Japan taking a more aggressive stance, which could become a catalyst for a more sustained reversal.

Following higher-than-expected US inflation data, the USDJPY surged above the 153.00 level, with an intraday gain of 1%; this propelled the price into a significantly overbought condition in the larger timeframe, warning speculators to exercise caution. However, the market remains cautious about the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to support the yen, although Japan seems not in a hurry to find the best timing for intervention.

If bullish pressure persists, the price may test the 34-year high resistance at 153.32. A breakout above this area could lead to further upside momentum, encountering resistance at 154.65. Further upside potential may halt around 155.80.

On the other hand, if the asset experiences a pullback, the recent support level at 150.87 may serve as the first obstacle for bears to overcome. Even lower, strong support may be found around 149.40. A breakthrough of this level could pave the way for a decline towards 147.44.

Overall, the market continues to test the determination of the Bank of Japan, and careful consideration is needed to address whether this oscillation will trigger a downward correction.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 154.90

Target Price: 135.00

Stop Loss: 156.89

Valid Until: 2024-04-25 23:55:00

Support: 152.76, 152.00, 151.00, 150.00

Resistance: 153.50, 154.66, 155.00, 155.75