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The Federal Reserve (Fed), or the central bank of the United States, is responsible for regulating the U.S. monetary policy and interest rates. As a provider of liquidity for world trade, the Fed is also known as the world's central bank. Its every move affects the global economy and financial markets.

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Focus on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit ! How will China-U.S. relations develop in the future, win-win cooperation or confrontation?

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      GBPUSD: Beware of the GBP's Fall from Highs as Bank of England Is Not Expected to Be Hawkish Enough

      Nonfarm PayrollsInterest Rate Resolution
      Summary:

      The US labor market remains strong, supporting the Fed to continue raising interest rates, while uncertainty in the UK economy will drag on the Bank of England's interest rate hikes and the GBP's gains.

      Sell GBPUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.22400

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.20000

      TGT PRICE

      1.23500

      SL PRICE

      1.18275 -0.00978 -0.82%

      520

      Points

      Profit

      1.20000

      TGT PRICE

      1.21880

      CLOSING

      1.22400

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.23500

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      In recent days, several Fed officials have issued hawkish remarks continuously, refuting expectations that interest rate hikes will slow, suggesting that the Fed will continue to work on raising interest rates to a level that can more significantly curb economic activity to reduce inflationary pressures. In addition, the non-farm payroll in July will be released soon, and the market's expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September is surprisingly higher than a week ago, which also significantly boosted the USD.
      Although the market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in August, the British economy is not very optimistic. Moreover, the economic uncertainty brought about by the European gas crisis may cause the Bank of England to lower its growth forecast. Furthermore, many institutions believe that the tensions in the British labor market are easing, and core CPI has peaked, which could slow the pace of monetary tightening by the Bank of England, which is already "indecisive" about raising interest rates.
      The GBP faces further downside risks if the rate hike at a later BoE meeting is less than expected or not hawkish enough. Besides, the political situation in the UK after Johnson's resignation is still turbulent. In addition to the competition within the Conservative Party for a new prime minister, it also faces a series of Brexit sequelae, which will further limit the appreciation of the GBP. 

      Technical Analysis

      GBPUSD: Beware of the GBP's Fall from Highs as Bank of England Is Not Expected to Be Hawkish Enough_1
      Referring to the daily chart, GBPUSD continues the rebound from the bottom. Although it encountered resistance and fell back near 1.2300, the short-term upward momentum still exists, and there is further space for a rebound. 
      GBPUSD: Beware of the GBP's Fall from Highs as Bank of England Is Not Expected to Be Hawkish Enough_2
      Regarding the 4H chart, GBPUSD continues to fluctuate upwards. Although there was a callback, the upward trend remains stable. However, the pressure around 1.2300 is remarkable, and the overall bearish trend has not been reversed. If the rebound fails to break above 1.2300, there is still a risk of further depreciation. 
      It is recommended to go short when it rebounds near 1.2250, with the target set near the support level of 1.2000 and the stop-loss set above 1.2300. 

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 1.2240
      Target price: 1.2000
      Stop loss: 1.2350
      Support: 1.2000/1.2080
      Resistance: 1.2300/1.2200
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      7 years of stock market, foreign exchange, precious metal and other trading and analysis experience, based on fundamental, technical support, biased towards the top-down transaction logic, focusing on macro cycle and risk control, multi-purpose supply and demand theoretical prediction price Changes, balances the impact of transactions, chips distribution and market sentiment, and steady.

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