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EURUSD: Trade Within the Range as Positive Support Remains

Forex MarketInflation and Recession
Summary:

Eurozone CPI eased to 10.0% in November from 10.6%, below expectations of 10.4%. CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged at 5.0% YoY. Core inflation in the eurozone is expected to be more volatile and will not decline rapidly in the near term.

Buy EURUSD
End Time
CLOSED

1.03243

ENTRY PRICE

1.05500

TGT PRICE

1.01620

SL PRICE

1.08675 +0.00004 +0.00%

1145

Points

Profit

1.01620

SL PRICE

1.04388

CLOSING

1.03243

ENTRY PRICE

1.05500

TGT PRICE

Fundamentals

Superficially, November's CPI data made the overall inflation rate drop from 10.6% to 10.0%, which is gratifying. However, we believe that the evidence of similar peak potential inflation pressure is not so clear, and the "high" core inflation could remain the concern of the European Central Bank (ECB) for days to come.
Companies continue to pass on higher input costs to consumers. Despite the impending recession, we expect this cost-driven inflation process to continue into 2023, allowing price pressures to continue to rise for longer. Although natural gas and electricity prices have slowed, delaying the transfer to household bills means that energy price inflation will only gradually abate and the downside risk from the price cap appears to be limited. In our view, core inflation will be tricky due to the second-round effect of higher energy, materials, and labor costs.
We expect eurozone inflation to average 7.2% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Core inflation will return to the ECB's target in the second half of 2024. Given the ongoing cost-driven inflation, we believe that there is still an upside risk from the market underestimating the "sticky" euro inflation, the green transition, and higher-than-expected wage growth.
Another outbreak of the energy crisis could easily push up inflation again, and core inflation often turns out to be sticky after supply shocks. The impact of the previous supply shock (COVID-19 pandemic) is still affecting inflation. Core inflation is expected to fluctuate more as the effects of two large-scale supply shocks become apparent, but it is not expected to decline rapidly soon.
The eurozone's November CPI showed a range of volatility of the EURUSD after inflation slowed in November. The EURUSD is likely to remain strong after recent price movements as the overall price slowdown could provide ECB policymakers with a reason to slow the pace of tightening to 50 basis points in December. But double-digit prices and stubborn core inflation could still worry hawks. We expect the EURUSD to be well supported during the current mild decline.
EURUSD: Trade Within the Range as Positive Support Remains_1

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has managed to stay within a relatively narrow range of around 1.0350 despite a negative trend earlier this week forced by the 200-day SMA. This is by no means an easy task, indicating that there is still some potential flexibility for bulls.
The EURUSD is currently trading between the 200-day SMA and 1.0320 and has not effectively broken and closed outside of that range, which means that consolidation will continue. Investors need to continue monitoring the EURUSD's reaction between the two levels. If the EURUSD starts moving higher again, another test of the previous highs is expected. Conversely, the parity level will become a bearish target to expect. It is recommended to go long at the lows within the range.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1.0320
Target price: 1.0550
Stop loss: 1.0162
Deadline: 2022-12-14 23:55:00
Support: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0220, 1.0006
Resistance: 1.0450, 1.0480, 1.0580, 1.0613
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Analyst

Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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5

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480

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65.12%

P/L Ratio

0.62

Focus on

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